On What Is This Thing

Last September, when I was only about a half or three-quarters as big a deal as I am now, I wrote a piece for Hardball Times called “I, Claudia’s.” Claudia’s, for the 99.5% of readers who have no way of knowing, is a sports bar near where I live in Portland, Ore. (Furthermore, I, Cladius is a novel/BBC TV series about the Roman Emperor Claudius). I go there (i.e. Claudia’s) to watch baseball with some frequency, on account of (a) I don’t have much in the way of TVs, and (b) they have, like, 700 of them.

So, like I’m saying, I got the revolutionary idea last September to combine my baseball watching with my baseball writing. (Shocking, no?) I’m quoting myself when I say:

While previously I’ve only ever gone to Claudia’s in my capacity as amateur layabout, I got to figuring during one of my recent sojourns: on account of I’m being paid all this money by Hardball Times anyway, wouldn’t it be sporting of me to jot down some of my observations about the games I was watching?

Sure, was my answer to myself.

Essentially my idea for the piece was to write something like Craig Calcaterra’s “And That Happened” except less complete, less informative, less factual, and less funny. On the plus side, it’d be a tiny bit shorter*.

*Seriously, I have no idea how he does it. I mean, I get that there’re things like the Extra Innings package and the internet and everything, but Calcaterra is a machine. If I have one complaint about “And That Happened,” it’s that it forces me to imagine him doing all that work. That’s not the sort of thing I’d wish upon anyone — let alone il mio paesano.

On account of (a) there was a real-live baseball game last night, (b) I watched said game at Claudia’s, (c) we’ve been discussing the art of game reporting of late in these very electronic pages, and (d) there’s no time like the present, I figured I might dust off the project I’d started last summer and submit to the readership what I consider to be a first step towards a competent game report.

In short, that’s what is this thing.

On Chan Ho Park

Chan Ho Park posted the lowest WPA of any player in last night’s contest (-.316). He was also responsible for conceding the largest single WPA swing of the game (.309) on Dustin Pedroia’s game-tying two-run homer with one out in the seventh — this after not allowing even one home run in relief all last season (merci buckets, Jeff Sullivan).

In short, the results weren’t so hot.

Having said that, I think Park actually put together one of the more memorable — if not absolutely best — pitching sequences of the night. Just after giving up a seventh-inning single to Marco Scutaro — and right before giving up the aforementioned dongpiece to Little Dustin Pedroia — Park started speed merchant Jacoby Ellsbury off with a low and inside pitch that resists description. While MLB GameDay classified said pitch as a four-seam fastball, I’m suspicious. Park’s four-seamer was around 90-92 mph on the night with about 7-9 inches of arm-side run and 10-12 inches of “rise” (relative to a ball thrown with no spin, that is). This pitch, at which Ellsbury swung and missed pretty badly, was 87.5 mph with an inch of glove-side movement and about 10 inches of rise.

Was it a slider, maybe? That’s a question I asked myself, certainly, and it’s a possibility, except the average rise of Park’s slider on the night was 5.58 inches, while this particular pitch demonstrated similar rise to Park’s fastball.

Whatever the exact classification, it was an excellent pitch, generating the only whiff of the 22 pitches that Park threw on the night.

Ellsbury fouled off the next pitch, a high fastball at about 93 mph, and then came the strikeout pitch. While GameDay classifies the third pitch (a fastball at 92 mph) as having only 8.77 inches of arm-side run — hardly exceptional relative to Park’s other fastballs — it was this movement, combined with the placement just on the inside corner, that caused Ellsbury to take the pitch for strike three.

All in all, it was the ideal sequence for Park: he induced swings on two pitches out of the zone (the whiff and then the foul), and then got the K on a deftly placed, and adequately moving, fastball.

Tweets of the Game

In addition to many competent live chats that occurred during last night’s game, the Twitters were absolutely abuzz with enthusiastic baseball nerds. On account of I’m a Twitter novice and have subscribed neither as far, nor as wide, as some of my fellow baseball nerd friends, it’s possible that the scope of my reading is too narrow.

In any case, here are five choice comments from the Twitterverse during last night’s game:

From devil_fingers (on the occasion of Marco Scutaro fielding a ball cleanly): Um, actually it’s exactly average. BOOYAH! RT @EricSeidman: Scutaro’s UZR is off the charts.

From devil_fingers (on the occasion of Matt Klaassen looking the mirror): I wish. RT @EricSeidman: @devil_fingers Your face is exactly average.

From TylerKepner (on the occasion of Scott Schoenweis relieving Josh Beckett): I love how Scott Schoeneweis has played for seven teams across 12 seasons and never worn any number besides 60.

From zvsanders (on the occasion of the Yankee left fielder not throwing the ball away): Gardner didn’t fail that time! #progress

From jonahkeri (on the occasion of Kevin Youkilis, a Jewish person, dominating the game): And on Easter, a Member of the Tribe shall lead them.

The Oakland Athletics caught lightning in a mousetrap when they promoted Andrew Bailey essentially from Double-A to the Major League pen. Bailey had appeared in one Triple-A game, and started for most of his minor league career, but the decision paid dividends quickly. Bailey was one of the game’s top relievers last season. Injuries and concern over Bailey’s health has lead the A’s to do something similar this spring.

Tyson Ross is considered one of the Athletics’ best prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the sixth best prospect and our own Marc Hulet had him at fifth, saying this:

If you love groundballers like we do at Fangraphs, then you’ll want to meet Ross. The right-hander posted a 56.6% ground-ball rate on the season, including a 61.9 GB% in 66.3 double-A innings. Just 22, Ross is a promising pitcher despite a modest strikeout rate in double-A (8.55 in high-A, 5.58 K/9 in double-A). His fastball can touch the mid-90s so the strikeouts should come once he improves his secondary pitches. He also needs to improve his command and control a bit after posting a walk rate of 3.48 on the seasons. Ross allowed 10 homers in high-A (1.04 HR/9) despite his impress ground-ball numbers. If his secondary pitches don’t improve, he could become a dominating late-game reliever with his sinking fastball.

Hulet wrote that only a month and a half ago, but he looks quite prescient, since the Athletics will feature Ross in the opening day bullpen. The aforementioned Baseball America noted that Ross’ delivery puts a good deal of stress on his shoulder — which lead to some injury issues. If the A’s feel Ross is an injury waiting to happen then a move to the bullpen should theoretically help.

Earl Weaver used to break his starters in as relievers, and it seems likely the A’s will use Ross in a role similar to Bailey’s in 2009. No, not as a closer, but rather as a reliever capable of going at least two innings at a time. Before Bailey turned into their closer (in June), he appeared in 23 games and threw 32 innings. As you can imagine, he pitched quite well out of the role. Ross shouldn’t be expected to pitch quite that well, but the question that remains is whether this is a short- or long-term experiment. Or, rather, is Tyson Ross’s days of starting behind him?

Ross will improve the Athletics’ pen, but that doesn’t mean this is the best decision. Unlike Jenrry Meija, though, it might be defensible.

It’s always a mystery to me how long it’s going to take to get the site in a state where it can load the next year’s stats. Fortunately, everything appears to be working (after a hiccup that caused all the player pages to error out) and all one game of 2010 stats have been loaded successfully! Remember that pitch type stats usually run one day behind and UZR is updated every Sunday.

Stats are typically updated nightly around 4am Eastern Time.

Tomorrow night I’ll switch over all the default views to 2010 stats.

After each and every game this season, you’ll have the opportunity to vote for the players of the game:

You’ll be able to award 3, 2, and 1 stars (3 stars being the best) to whichever players you think are most deserving and then we’ll tally the votes in real time. The ballot will open as soon as the game is “Final” and it will remain open for the following day as well, but then it will be closed permanently.

After each week we’ll tally up the votes and award a FanGraphs fan chosen player of the week, month, and season.

This is a collaborative project with Tangotiger and insidethebook.com.

Check out our live win probability pages as soon as the game ends to vote!

Apparently, Eric Chavez won’t be playing zombie #3 in the latest George Romero flick. With the announcement that Oakland designated Jack Cust for assignment, it appears that Chavez will take over DH duties in Oakland.

Cust was non-tendered by the A’s in December, then re-signed with the club for $2.65 million in January. The 31 year-old lefty batter is coming off of a mild season at the plate in 2009, as his wOBA fell to .342 (it was .371 in 2008 and .393 in 2007).

The former Diamondback, Rockie, Oriole and Padre still drew plenty of walks this past year, but took a cut at more pitches than in previous seasons:

2007: 13.8 Outside Swing%, 62.4 Z-Swing%, 20.7 BB%
2008: 15.3 Outside Swing%, 62.8 Z-Swing%, 18.6 BB%
2009: 17.5 Outside Swing%, 67.9 Z-Swing%, 15.2 BB%

As Dave Allen noted last July, Cust expanded his zone, seemingly in an attempt to make more contact. His whiff rate dropped from the 41 percent range to 36 percent and his contact rate rose from the mid-sixties to the high-sixties, but his power suffered. After posting Isolated Power figures of .248 in 2007 and .245 in 2008, his ISO dipped to .177 in 2009.

The phrase “power to all fields” may seem trite, but Cust certainly fit the description in 2007 and 2008. While he was above average when he pulled the ball, he mashed to the middle and opposite fields like few others. In 2009? He was still well above average on balls hit to the middle and opposite fields, but he didn’t pull the ball with much authority. Here are Cust’s spray numbers over the 2007-2009 seasons, as well as the league averages for lefty batters for context:

I highlighted Cust’s ’09 numbers on balls hit to left and balls pulled to the right. Cust’s opposite field hitting (.374 wOBA) remained very good relative to the league average for lefties (.316 wOBA), though obviously short of his .500+ wOBA marks on balls hit to left in 2007 and 2008. When Cust pulled the ball in ’09, his .377 wOBA came in well under the .399 league average and was a far cry from his .434 mark in 2007 and .464 figure in 2008.

As for 2010, CHONE, ZiPS and the FANS all project Cust to post a wOBA in the .360 range. Considering that Cust plays defense like his cleats are made of cinder blocks (career -20.4 UZR/150 in the outfield), he’s one of the few players who holds more value as a DH than a position player.

Cust could stay with the A’s if he clears waivers and accepts a minor league assignment. However, one obvious landing spot would be the south side of Chicago, where the White Sox are set to open 2010 with an underwhelming DH duo of Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay. Jones and Kotsay project as sub-replacement-level at the DH spot, and Cust could be a two-win upgrade if he matches those offensive forecasts. Considering how tightly bunched the AL Central standings figure to be, Chicago shouldn’t let such a chance slip past them.

Chavez, meanwhile, will try to pick up the pieces of a career that has been shattered by back, shoulder and elbow injuries. Entering the last guaranteed year of a six-year, $66 million deal that was entirely defensible at the time, Chavez will pull down $12 million in 2010.

The memories might be hazy now, but the 32 year-old was once a force both in the field and at the plate, eclipsing the 5 WAR mark in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005. Chavez could be quickly relegated to spectator status by another injury, Jake Fox or Chris Carter, but it’s hard not to root for the guy.

I stumbled across Thomas Boswell’s most recent Washington Post chat in which he wrote [all errors sic]:

The Fangraphs valuations just don’t come close. Something’s wrong with their method and I think its probably UZR. Folr example, they value the whole 84-win Rays team in ’09 at a salry of $229M, but they think the 80-win Brewers, just four less wins, are “worth” only $116M using their stat methods. Huh???? Even worse, they say the A’s and Blue Jays, both with 75 wins, are worth $162M and $176M, but the Astros and Pads, who won 74 and 75 games, are only worth $98M and $96M. Obviously, to me, there’s a big problem here. …

… Go on, explain those salary valuation. It can’t be done. Any method or theory that proposes to assign “win value” to every player has to be consistent with past win totals. Duh.

First, it’s worth getting the numbers correct. In 2009 we don’t have the Brewers at $116M. It’s actually $128M, but in any event, there are always going to be some outliers.

It’s true that the Blue Jays and Athletics were two of the major outliers last year, but the problem is not with UZR, at least in the Blue Jays case. UZR considered the Blue Jays as one of the six worst defensive teams in baseball. The A’s aren’t being overvalued by UZR either at just about average.

If you look at the Pythag Records for 2009, the Blue Jays and Athletics are at -8 and -6, suggesting they should have won 8 and 6 games more respectively based on their runs scored and runs against. Team WAR is also going to reflect that.

Since 2002, our WAR data has a .86 correlation with actual wins. So while we’ve said it before: WAR is consistent with past win totals. Just because you’ve cherry picked a few outliers doesn’t change the fact that the numbers do add up.

Not the latest of the late term Spring Training extensions (see Matt Klaassen’s piece on Adam Lind), but one that threatens to slip through the weekend cracks. Scott Feldman inked an extension yesterday that bought out his arbitration years and gave the Rangers an option on his first free agent year (2013).

Once again, we have a contract that technically wipes out a previously agreed deal, Feldman’s contract for 2010, but actually calls for identical money in 2010 as the original deal. Feldman and the Rangers had already agreed to a $2.425 million salary this season to avoid his first year of arbitration. Feldman’s new deal calls for that same amount this year and then salaries of $4.4 million in 2011, $6.5 million in 2012 and come with a team option for $9.2 million in 2013 or a $600K buyout.

Feldman has been pretty unimpressive statistically until last season when he posted a roughly league average season over 183 innings in the rotation and 6.2 innings in the bullpen, no small feat. Feldman doesn’t miss bats all that well (6.5% compared to an 8.6% average last year) or find the zone all that well either (45.6% against league average of 49.4% in 2009). He was helped by an above average ground ball rate and a .275 BABIP and a little luck on home runs per fly balls, especially given his home park. Unsurprisingly, CHONE and the Fans are divergent on Feldman’s projections.

Even the fans see a regression to 2.2 wins in 2010 for Feldman. CHONE is a lot more bearish and clocks in at just under 1.4 wins. If you factor the 2010 salary into the new contract, then Feldman is being guaranteed 1.8 free market seasons for a total of just under $14 million (scenario 1) with an option to extend to 2.8 seasons at $22.5 million (scenario 2). If you disregard 2010 as already agreed upon, then this contract is worth 1.4 free market seasons for $11.5 million (scenario 3) or 2.4 seasons for $20.1 million (scenario 4).

Under all four scenarios, the Rangers are paying Feldman as if he is going to produce at a two-win level over the life of the deal. Based solely on his 2009 numbers, that’s a good deal for Texas. However, based on his projections, backed up by some middling core numbers, this is a reach for the Rangers.

Granted, it’s unlikely to blow up in their faces, but it’s also a deal that they could have avoided with little cost since Feldman was under club control anyways and they have seemed to secure no meaningful discount for granting Feldman some financial security. If Feldman declines at all (he’s already 27), then this quickly turns into a misstep by the Rangers.

Just as late February and early March brings forth the seemingly endless puff pieces centering on players arriving in Arizona and Florida and what kind of physical shape they are in, the last few days of March and first few of April brings us a slew of injuries and DL placements.

Whether it’s because the start of the season is right around the corner and teams that were hoping a certain player would get healthy in time for Opening Day or perhaps because the end of Spring Trainings brings about actual warm up games and some players aren’t as physically ready as thought, there always seems to be a lot of injury movement leading up to Opening Day. With so little other news to focus on, this tends to cause overreactions in the various fan bases.

Who are the latest players down for the count? Jeff Francis who was slated to take the two-slot for the Rockies, like Cliff Lee for the Mariners, was “sore and unable to play flat-ground catch Friday” after his five-inning start on Thursday. Francis is coming off a 2009 season lost to labrum surgery so the Rockies need to be extra cautious anyways. Hearing things like “It’s hurting pretty bad” is enough to make one want to short non-existent stock in the Rockies 2010 championship chances, but the prudent thing is to keep calm and wait for further news.

Coco Crisp fractured his pinky finger sliding into second base during a game on Friday and will begin the year on the disabled list as well. How long he is out likely depends on exactly where the fracture is. No matter what, Crisp might be out for close to a month, possibly two if he elects to let the finger heal totally before returning to play. Several players such as Michael Young and Nelson Cruz have played through the injury in the past, but it all depends on the severity and location.

Also, just as I finish writing this, word comes through Twitter that Milton Bradley left the Mariners game today with what is being called tightness in his right quad, but Mariner officials are saying that it was purely a precaution and, though he will be re-evaluated tomorrow, so far nothing has jeopardized Bradley’s starting in the cleanup spot on Monday.

Get used to it folks. Opening Day is right around the corner and for early April, that means lots of nicks and minor injuries.

In the wake of Adam Lind’s monster 2009 at the plate, the Toronto Blue Jays have signed him to a multi-year deal. In short, Lind (who will be 26 to start the season) is guaranteed $18 million from 2010-2013, with the Jays holding options for 2014-2016, which would have been Lind’s first three years of free agency.

At first blush, this is a good deal for the Jays. To spoil the ending: it is. But how good? Remember that players typically get less money in arbitration, and Lind wasn’t going to be arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season. In other words, for 2010, Toronto was going to have Lind for practically “free” (around league minimum). For the three arbitration seasons, a player is typically paid 40, 60, and 80 percent of what he would make on the free agent market. To comparing Lind to the free agent market scale, rather that assuming 4/18, we take the three arbitration years, and multiply the time by 0.4, 0.6, and 0.8 respectively, and evaluate this deal as if it were a 2/18 (for simplicities sake, we round 1.8 up to 2) deal in the current free agent market. Assuming a current market value of $3.5 million dollars per marginal win, a typical 0.5 win a season decline, and 7% per season salary inflation, a two year, $18 million dollar contract would be an average deal for a player that is currently 2.5 Wins Above Replacement.

In 2009, Lind put up 3.7 WAR. In general, cherrypicking one good (or bad) season as a “new standard” for any player is a bad idea for projections, and even worse for deciding whom to resign. That’s why we look to projection systems that take account of playing time, run environment, age, and so on, and I’ll also add in the Fan projections for that “personal touch.” Averaging Lind’s projected 2010 wOBA from CHONE (.368), ZiPS (.359), and the Fans (.383), we get .370, or about 24 runs above average per 700 plate appearances.

Lind is… not much of a defender, to put it kindly, and Toronto is aware of this, making him their primary designated hitter (although I’m disappointed we’ll miss out on the comedy an everyday outfield of Lind, Vernon Wells, and Travis Snider would have provided). But he’s done it before, so we don’t need to worry about it effecting his hitting too much.

Putting it all together: +24 offense -17.5 DH positional adjustmen + 25 AL replacement level all times 85% playing time = about a 2.7 WAR player. Given the level of imprecision we’re dealing with here, that’s pretty much right on as far as what we’d expect. Of course, Lind is only 26 (turning 27 in July), so perhaps he isn’t in for as much decline and/or attrition as is built in to the 0.5 WAR-a-season estimate. Perhaps, although Lind isn’t exactly a the type we’d expect to age gracefully. It’s safe to say that the guaranteed portion is a good, not great deal for the Jays, and fair for Lind as well. This only looks “great” or like a “steal” if it’s compared with the free agent market, but Lind wasn’t slated to reach free agency until 2014 . Team have lots of leverage with pre-arbitration players, and the Jays used it properly.

One might argue that the Jays got a “steal” because Lind will be an “exception” to the projections. I’m aware of the uncertainty in projections. But while some professional and amateur scouts may be able to can pick the exceptions amidst uncertainty, I can’t, and I’ll leave that sort of thing to those who can.

What makes this deal even better, though, are the club options tacked on for what would have been Lind’s first three free agent years (2014-2016). They are worth about $7.5M annually (not counting the buyouts). I’ve said that it isn’t a good idea to bet on Lind being an “exception,” and by 2014 he’ll be entering his thirties. Guaranteeing something substantial five years down the road to most players, especially those who couldn’t run or play the field in their their mid-20s is, to say the least, not a good idea. But the Jays haven’t. When I look at the projections, and assume an average aging curve, I think it’s about even money, that Lind will be worth keeping around in 2014. But the Jays haven’t guaranteed him anything beyond a reasonable buyout for 2014. If he does turn out to age well in his late-20s, and is still going strong, the Jays can keep him on at a great price. If not, they can let him go. That’s what makes this deal decent now, but potentially great later.

Three weeks and one mildly controversial ranking later, we’re finished with the 2010 organizational rankings series. You can find links to all the recap posts below. Next week, when we’re not talking about what’s actually happening on the field, I’ll do some posts on the questions raised during the series. But now, it’s your turn. If you want to weigh in with what you think the order should have been, you can fill up the comments thread with your thoughts.

#1 – New York Yankees
#2 – Boston Red Sox
#3 – Tampa Bay Rays
#4 – Texas Rangers
#5 – Minnesota Twins
#6 – Seattle Mariners
#7 – Colorado Rockies
#8 – Atlanta Braves
#9 – Philadelphia Phillies
#10 – St. Louis Cardinals
#11 – Anaheim Angels
#12 – Milwaukee Brewers
#13 – Cleveland Indians
#14 – Los Angeles Dodgers
#15 – New York Mets
#16 – Arizona Diamondbacks
#17 – Baltimore Orioles
#18 – Chicago Cubs
#19 – Oakland Athletics
#20 – Cincinnati Reds
#21 – Detroit Tigers
#22 – Florida Marlins
#23 – San Francisco Giants
#24 – Chicago White Sox
#25 – Pittsburgh Pirates
#26 – Toronto Blue Jays
#27 – San Diego Padres
#28 – Washington Nationals
#29 – Kansas City Royals
#30 – Houston Astros