It is no secret that National League pitchers get the benefit of facing the opposing team’s pitcher instead of a designated hitter. It should also come as no surprise that starting pitchers get much more of this benefit than relief pitchers as relief pitchers are far likelier to see pinch hitters (still a pretty big advantage over the standard DH) than the other pitcher. In fact, while the gap between the league average starting pitcher in the AL and NL is about a third of a run per nine innings, the gap for relief pitchers shrinks to about half of that. If you are considering a pitcher switching leagues, remember that the switch affects starters about twice as much as it does for relievers.

Which pitchers took advantage of facing other pitchers most often? I may eventually get into a far more complete answer to this, but I originally was just poking around strikeout numbers I had on hand when I decided to parse the data in this fashion. First, here are some general numbers. Looking at 2009 and only at pitchers with at least 100 batters faced, the average strikeout rate was 18% of all batters and 17.5% of all non-pitcher batters. Pitchers struck out an average of 32% of opposing pitchers that they faced.

Which pitchers boosted their strikeout rates the most against other pitchers? Over the small sample of 109 batters faced, that distinction goes to Eric Milton who had 20 strikeouts totals but just 14 against actual batters so 30% of his strikeouts came against other pitchers. Taking away those pitchers, his strikeout rate falls from a slightly above average 18.3% to a notably below average 14% giving just one example of the important of context.

Amongst slightly bigger sample sizes (300 batters faced or more) comes names like Chris Young (24% of strikeouts came against pitchers), Ross Detwiler (23%) and Craig Stammen (23%). Looking at full time starters only (greater than 600 batters faced) beings up John Lannan (21%), Zach Duke (21%), Ted Lilly (19% thanks to a whopping 58% K rate against pitchers) and the person I wanted to highlight, Joel Pineiro (19%).

Why did I focus on Pineiro when I sorted the list? Because he’s the top pitcher in this ranking who is switching leagues to the AL, where he is no longer going to get the regular benefit of facing other pitchers. Obviously people have already factored that in, but most likely in a more general sense based on the average league translation. I’m pointing out that Pineiro is a prime candidate (low strikeouts to begin with) to be hit harder than most.

Pineiro struck out just 10.6% of “real” batters last season. Any regression in his strikeout rate that fans expect should be tempered by the lack of pitchers that he will get to pitch against in 2010 which is part of the reason I agree much more with the CHONE and ZiPS projections for Pineiro (~2.75 WAR in 2010) than the Fans (3.4 WAR).

Over the winter the Rangers sought a right-handed bat who could play first base. During the Winter Meetings in December they came close to acquiring Mike Lowell from Boston to fill that role. But after they learned that Lowell would require surgery to repair his thumb they backed away. The deal wouldn’t have been bad from Texas’s end. They would have sent catcher Max Ramirez to Boston and would have received about 75 percent of Lowell’s 2010 salary.

This spring we’ve again heard about the two parties reigniting talks. While scouts have basically labeled Lowell as an old man who needs a walker to play the field, he still appears able to hit and possibly play first base. Because of this, and because of the thumb surgery from which Lowell is recovering, word was that Boston would kick in even more salary. Yet while we heard rumblings, we didn’t hear anything indicating a deal was close.

Today Texas found a way to fill their need for a right-handed hitting first baseman and keep Ramirez in the system. Earlier this week the Mariners, somewhat famously, waived Ryan Garko. Texas put in a claim and officially acquired him today. Garko isn’t quite the hitter Lowell is, even if Lowell’s production suffers from his age and recent injuries. But for a cost-effective option, but in salary and prospect transfer, the Rangers made out decently in this deal. There could be opportunities in the future, as well, to trade for Lowell, should the Red Sox find him superfluous.

For their part, the Red Sox certainly benefit from having Lowell on the roster. He’s a bit costly for a bench player, but that doesn’t appear to bother the Sox. They were, after all, willing to send considerable salary relief to Texas in the previous deal, so money is not the object here. Perhaps they’d like to avoid a situation where they have to keep a loyal player — one who was reportedly in talks with the Phillies for a four-year contract before signing for three with Boston. As long as his presence doesn’t cause clubhouse damage, it will be an advantage for the Sox.

Lowell’s hip became a problem in August 2008. He tried to play through it at the beginning of the month, but by mid-month it was clear he was headed for the DL. He had a .358 wOBA from March through July 2008, higher than his career to that point, though a bit below his career year in 2007. He played in just 22 games and accumulated just 86 PA in August and September that year and, predictably, his production suffered, though his wOBA still sat at .344 in that short sample. By the time the playoffs rolled around, though, it was clear that he couldn’t hold up. After a hitless nine PA in the ALDS Lowell did not appear in the ALCS.

Following off-season surgery to repair the torn labrum in his hip Lowell returned for the start of the 2009 season and hit very well, though his September production, a .297 wOBA, made his season stats look a bit worse. During the season’s first five months, during which he missed 19 days to the DL and three additional days with hip tightness, Lowell posted a .366 wOBA. His defense understandably fell off, as he posted his first negative UZR since the the stat’s inaugural 2002 season. In terms of wRC+, Lowell posted his second best season as member of the Red Sox. His defense, however, made it his worst in terms of WAR.

This season the Red Sox need not worry much about Lowell’s defense. They have glovework wizard Adrian Beltre manning third base, and Kevin Youkilis can also capably man the position. If Beltre doesn’t work out as the Sox hope they could always move Youk across the diamond and insert Lowell at first. Then again, that might be the plan for getting Victor Martinez, who hasn’t caught more than 100 games since 2007, out from behind the plate. Lowell can also replace David Ortiz against tough lefties. The latter has seen his wOBA against lefties decline over the past four seasons, and while he can still do some damage against them — he did post a .206 ISO against them in 2009 — perhaps Lowell can use his lefty mashing skills here.

Having a player of Lowell’s caliber on the bench can also help protect against injuries. Last year the Yankees had both Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady for the right field gig, and much of the preseason banter centered on the team’s ability to find at-bats for Swisher. Barely a week into the season, however, Nady re-injured his elbow and needed corrective surgery. Swisher stepped in and produced at a level far above Nady’s career averages. Had the Yankees dealt Swisher during the spring, and such a move had been rumored, they would have been in a much tougher position in mid-April.

It’s understandable why the Red Sox would try to trade Lowell. He won’t be a starter, but can hit like one. Another team will find value in that, and perhaps send the Red Sox something useful in return. Additionally, there is probably, at least on a small level, a feeling of obligation towards Lowell for signing a shorter term contract with the Red Sox after the 2007 season. But unless the Red Sox receive an over the top offer, they can benefit greatly from having Lowell on the roster. Players slump and players get hurt. Lowell can help fill in those gaps and make the 2010 Red Sox a stronger team.

Note: This article is hella interactive. If you have a sec, please do answer the questions at the bottom.

Though it seems hard to imagine, reports suggest that actual, real-live baseball games will commence this Sunday. Starting that day and proceeding through September — with only a brief, kinda lame interlude in July — there will be games every frigging day.

One project that I’d like to undertake this season — very likely in conjunction with other members of Team FanGraphs — is the provision of a semi-regular, nerd-approved game report that is both (a) satisfying to a readership more or less comfortable with the metrics we host here at the site and (b) entertaining to such a degree that, were one to have already seen the game in question, the report would still be worth a damn.

What might constitute the ideal game report is something I’ve considered a little bit. I’ll get to that in a second.

First, let’s consider the flaws of the traditional game report. I’m quoting myself when I say that

As of now, mostly what’s available is the pyramid style of game recap, such as the AP and other news outlets provide, which is a document composed in such a way as to (1) create a more or less fictional narrative for a baseball game, (2) give undue emphasis to emotional factors and less to a combination of skill and chance, (3) become continually less important (and less interesting) as it grows in length and (4) create the impression that baseball is the most boring thing that has ever happened to the world (including the supposedly fun Playmobil-brand toys I was given occasionally as a child).

We don’t have to go very far to find an example of game recaps behaving badly. In fact, if one were to just — I don’t know — look at the very first game listed at Yahoo!’s MLB page yesterday, that’d probably be good enough. Were one to do that, one would find a recap of the Boston/Baltimore game written by David Ginsburg of the Associated Press that begins like so:

SARASOTA, Fla. (AP)—The Boston Red Sox have had enough of spring training.

They figure that if Victor Martinez is going to hit two homers and drive in six runs, and if Jon Lester is going to throw seven innings of three-hit ball, it might as well happen in a regular-season game.

With Boston’s powerful battery leading the way, the Red Sox beat the Baltimore Orioles 14-6 Wednesday.

Let’s be clear: this is by no means the worst case scenario of the genre. There’s no discussion of a player willing his team to victory by means of sheer Want To. And, at the very least, Ginsburg makes an attempt at playfulness, which, as a sentient being, is something I appreciate.

Even so, the narrative is strained and rests on a premise (i.e. the Red Sox should “save up” runs) that is both tired and impossible. Having played baseball even once, I recognize that a batter is not able to defer his home runs to such a base/out/score state as when it might have greater impact.

I will happily concede that, when content must be produced, then the quality of that content will suffer predictably. Nor do I intend to suggest that David Ginsburg is a bad writer or anything less than an A1 Guy. But the odds are stacked against him from the beginning. For, when the author must repeat, in prose, events that are just as easily apprehended by reading a play log — and when said author must then shoehorn those events into something like a “story” — the project is doomed from the start.

The advantage of writing for FanGraphs is that we’re constrained by nothing except the ominous presence of Dark Overlord David Appelman. Provided we don’t incur his wrath deliberately, he’s pretty flexible on what content we choose to provide. Also fortunate is that our readership is generally sharp and unafraid of change. As such, we authors needn’t adhere to outdated forms. If a game is booooooring, there’s no need on the part of any author here to pretend differently. If a game really knocks our black, over-the-calf work socks off, that’s totally legit. Finally, if the author wants to shout to the world that Colby Lewis is the Cy Young of his heart, he can do that, too.

So what might make for an ideal game report? I’m not positive I know, but I’m willing to learn. Here are some qualities that seem important:

1. Quantitative Analysis
Instead of saying “Victor Martinez helped his team a whole bunch,” we’re able to say, “Victor Martinez was worth about 15% of a win today.” We can also insert game graphs and (yes!) Pitchf/x info into our reports.

2. Observational Analysis
Last playoffs, during one of the Angel playoff games for which I was going to write a report, Marc Hulet emailed the following:

Not sure if you’re watching the Angels game today or not… but I think Kazmir was tipping his pitches with runners on second base. If you can go back and watch it, his glove is open to the second-base runner when he’s in the stretch… I could clearly see his grip on every pitch. It also looked like both Pedroia and especially Victor Martinez knew what was coming in the third inning. Martinez took two very big rips on fastballs and then tailored his swing for the off-speed pitch that he drove at the wall.

If I were a smarter person, I’d have copied and pasted that email and put it into my recap of the game.

3. An Actual, Human Voice
The game report, as it exists in your morning newspaper, is written so as to appear authorless. In fact, it might someday actually be authorless. But why is that good? I watch baseball games to make my life better. I’d like to read a report by someone who does the same.

1. What are the necessary components of an ideal game report? What might make a game report eminently readable?

2. Are there people (bloggers, for example) writing game reports of which you already approve? Where on the interweb could an enterprising young man find these?

3. Do you like the idea of a standard game report (i.e. a template used by multiple authors) here at FanGraphs? Or would you prefer for the individual author to use his discretion when reporting on a game?

And now, for the American League East.

On future talent, the Rays are the only organization that the Rangers envy, as they boast the same ridiculous depth of position player talent and then add in a better crop of young arms. It’s easy to get lost in the never ending sea of talent in Tampa Bay, as they have stars-in-the-making everywhere you look. And they’re not sitting around waiting for these kids to develop before making a run; this team is really good right now.

They had seven players post +3 WAR or better seasons last year, and that doesn’t include Carlos Pena or B.J. Upton. Evan Longoria is the most valuable commodity in the game, a franchise player being paid like a middle reliever. They are getting so much value from cost controlled players that they could afford to spend 23 percent of the budget on Pat Burrell and Rafael Soriano.

In any other division, they’d be monstrous favorites. But they don’t play in any other division, they play in the AL Beast. So, to make the playoffs, they have to climb over one of the only two teams who rank ahead of them on this series. When your parents told you that life was not always fair, this is what they meant.

But just because the task is a challenge, don’t write off the Rays. They aren’t that far behind the Big Two in terms of true talent, and with two playoff spots up for grabs between the three teams, there is a good chance you’ll be seeing Tampa Bay in October. The simulations run by the guys over at RLYW had the Rays making the playoffs 46 percent of the time.

This is a roster that can win this year, even with the extra hurdle of having to beat out Boston or New York. While they’ll have to make some changes at years end, likely replacing the likes of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, they have another wave of premium young talent coming, and they shouldn’t see too steep of a drop-off. Their payroll limitations will always be a hindrance, but the management staff is adept at finding value.

It’s a good team with a great young core and a top notch front office that is setup well for the present and future. They have a couple of behemoths to topple, yes, but they have have the ability to do so.

To say the future is bright in Tampa Bay is a bit of an understatement. Youth is front-and-center with the Rays organization; the club has done an enviable job of developing its home-grown talent. Both the scouting and the player development staffs should be given gold medals.

The youth movement actually begins with Andrew Friedman, one of the brightest, young front office men in the game. Although he hasn’t done a ton of wheeling and dealing, Friedman has managed to score interesting prospects such as Sean Rodriguez, Matt Sweeney, Alexander Torres, and Aneury Rodriguez.

Scouting director R.J. Harrison enters his fifth season in the role and has overseen the selecting of players such as David Price, Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings, and Matt Moore. Mitch Lukevics, director of minor league operations, is in charge of the prospects once they enter the system; players such as Jennings, Moore and even Jeremy Hellickson are prospects that have been drafted outside the first three rounds and developed into top prospects. Although the club has received favorable drafting slots in recent years, it clearly makes great use of later round picks.

The draft hasn’t always gone smoothly for the organization, though. The club hit a huge speed bump in 2009 when it failed to sign its first two selections in LeVon Washington and Kenny Diekroeger, both interesting selections to begin with. The organization made up for it, to some degree, by nabbing some higher-ceiling (but higher risk) players in later rounds: catcher Luke Bailey, first baseman Jeff Malm, and pitcher Kevin James.

Not known as an international powerhouse, the organization has one Latin player amongst its Top 10 prospects (pitcher Alexander Colome). The club did break into the European market this past off-season by signing Czech left-hander Stepan Havlicek.

On the big league squad, the team boasts some exciting talent, including the enigmatic B.J. Upton, third baseman Longoria, and second baseman Rodriguez. Young position players marching through the minor league system include nearly-ready Jennings, Tim Beckham, and Reid Brignac. The depth isn’t great, but Jennings has the chance to be a special player.

The starting rotation is the backbone of this club. James Shields is the old man of the group at 28, followed by Jeff Niemann, 27, Matt Garza, 26, Wade Davis, 24, and David Price, 24. All five pitchers arguably have the ceilings of at least a No. 2 starter. Looking down into the minor leagues and the club has a ton of pitching depth, including Hellickson, Moore, Colome, Nick Barnese, Kyle Lobstein, and even Jacob McGee, who is making his way back from injury.

This club can compete with the best organizations in the Major Leagues right now, and it should continue to be a powerhouse for years to come.

Beginning with the obvious and oft-repeated: The 2010 Tampa Bay Rays have the third best current talent in the American League.* But they are also the third most talented team in their division. This team has far too much talent to get any pity from me, though.

* I’d say “all of baseball,” but one could make an argument for the Phillies (Thanks, Doc!).

Straight up (not considering contracts or age), I’d probably take the 2010 Rays’ position players as a group over just about any other in baseball. They have something of a hole with Pat Burrell (possibly platooning with [shudder] Hank Blalock) at DH, although they could do much worse. Matt Joyce is probably around an average performer in right field, although if he’s platooned with ageless defensive-whiz Gabe Kapler, the Rays could get above-average performance out of the position. Those worried about Kelly Shoppach’s contact problems forget that even with his worst offensive projection (ZiPS), he’s an above-average catcher. It’s a cliche to say that a team has bench players “that could start for a lot of teams,” but it’s true of Willy Aybar and Sean Rodriguez.

The next “rung” for most teams contains a few above-average players. The Rays, in contrast, have five “above-above average” players here, guys who are around 3.5-4.5 WAR: Jason Bartlett, Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, and Carl Crawford. I know that is inadequate praise, but if I went on about all the individual talents on this team, this post would be 2,000+ words.

That’s it for the position players. Oh, yeah. Evan Longoria is the best third baseman in baseball. No, not just the “best value.” The best third baseman in baseball. Period.

Pitching lets the Rays down. Put away the torches and pitchforks. The bullpen is good enough (despite J.P. Howell’s injury concerns) with off-season acquisition Rafael Soriano and Grant Balfour both being strong options. Many, many teams would love to have James Shields and Matt Garza at the top of their rotations, not to mention Jeff Niemann and (especially) youngsters like David Price and Wade Davis. What I mean by “lets the Rays down” is that when I look at the Rays’ projections next to New York’s and Boston’s, the biggest difference is in the starting pitching. Again, it isn’t that Shields, Garza, et. al. aren’t good. But there is a sizeable gap between, say, Shields and Garza (each project at around four WAR) and guys like CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Javier Vazquez,* and Josh Beckett (each project at around five WAR).

* I actually had a Tampa Bay fan bring up Javy’s 2004 in New York as a reason he won’t be good for the Yankees in 2010. C’mon, Rays fans, I expect that kind of thing from Red Sox and Yankees fans, but not you, too!

I am not claiming that the Rays are “doomed because of their pitching.” They are definite contenders for the wildcard and even the divisional title. It is tough going up against Boston and New York, but the Rays have substantial hope. While the Rays’ rotation may not project to be as dominant as those of their chief rivals, it is younger. This means that there is more variance in the projections, and thus they have a greater chance of might be better than projected (of course, it also means they might be worse). The relative youth of the team as a whole means likely continued improvement and less attrition. While some might think the Rays have to “win now” (2010) because of Crawford and Pena’s expiring contracts, some of their best players are still developing, and much near-ready talent looms in the minors, as well: Jeremy Hellickson, Reid Brignac, and, above all, Desmond Jennings (who might show up sooner rather than later).

The Rays might not be the divisional favorites in 2010, but they are contenders, and they will be in 2011, and… well, that’s for the “Future Talent” post.

What do Frank Francisco, Darren Oliver, Colby Lewis, Michael Young, and Vladimir Guerrero have in common, besides being members of the Texas Rangers? They were born in the 1970s. Why is that interesting? Because they are the only five players on the Rangers 40-man roster that you can say that about. The Rangers have five guys in the organization in their thirties. Five.

Name a position, and the Rangers almost certainly have a good player either in his prime or headed towards it. You would start your team with their double play combination before any other organization’s in the game. They have a a couple of all-star slugging outfielders that can drive in runs in bunches. They have a deep stable of starting pitchers, as they can easily pick between eight or nine guys, depending on who is healthy and throwing well. They have a kid throwing 100 in the bullpen.

Oh, and they have perhaps the best farm system in the game, led by a few more premium talents, one of whom could take the team’s first base job later this summer. The talent that the Rangers have to build around is ridiculous in both depth and ability. And they may be ready for prime time as early as this year.

Not only are the Rangers young and talented, but they’re also pretty good. If there’s a favorite in the AL West, it’s probably them, as they’re generally at the top of the pre-season projections, even if only by a game or two. Their commitment to defense has given them the ability to keep opponents from turning games into a slugfest, but they still have enough juice in their bats to put runs on the board themselves. They’re counting on the maturation of several young pitchers, which is always risky, but the talent is there for the Rangers to win the division and make some noise in the playoffs.

While Jon Daniels has taken a bit of flack for several trades gone wrong over since he took over at GM, the positive has far outweighed the negative, and the scouting staff around him have done tremendous work in reloading the system. The Rangers are legitimate contenders in 2010 and have a remarkably strong base to build off of for the future. They’re good now and could be great in a year or two, and that’s why they rank as the fourth healthiest organization in baseball.

Quite obviously, the reasons the Rangers find themselves so highly ranked is because of their strength in this section of our analysis. No organization has re-committed themselves in the last 5-10 years as much as the Rangers, who backed away from nine figure payrolls and found a better marginal expense in player development. The compilation of young talent both at the Major League and minor league levels are unparalleled among the 30 organizations, and I think Texas has put themselves in a position to be a playoff contender for the indefinite future.

To start with the oldest and move backwards, we begin with players like Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton, a pair of players essential to the Rangers hopes in 2010. Kinsler is very interesting, because he’s had such variance between his BABIP and UZR numbers in the last two seasons, and while he arrived at it in very different ways, came out about equally as valuable in both. If we regress both those numbers back to average, Kinsler is still a four-win second baseman that has shown all five skills (for my money, he’s one of the best baserunners in the league). Hamilton’s offensive drop-off is well documented, and for the most part, seemingly discarded by people smarter than I. At the very least, returning to a 3 WAR player shouldn’t be difficult for someone this talented. Nelson Cruz fits into this discussion after his 2009 breakout, and he certainly is who we thought he was: a lot of power, a solid corner glove, and not a lot else.

The next group of young talents are the sophomores and rookies, the best proof to fans in Dallas that this new strategy is paying dividends. They saw it last year with Elvis Andrus, likely a treat to watch everyday with his highlight reel plays in the field and consistent offensive contact. He should be that player for a long time. The two great pitching prospects made their debuts, Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz, with encouraging results. Feliz was dominant in his set-up role, lighting up the radar guns but showing solid command, too. It takes a bit of a sabermetric eye to see the positives in Holland’s debut, the nearly 2 point difference in ERA and xFIP, but Dave Cameron sold it pretty well already. With better luck, big results are in store for the hard-throwing southpaw.

The rest of the young players on the Major League roster must use this season to prove they belong for the long term. Chris Davis doesn’t have a lot of time with Justin Smoak knocking on the door, so he’ll have to start drawing some walks and making contact a little more often. If he’s good, the DH spot will be waiting for him in 2011. Julio Borbon has earned centerfield and leadoff duties, and the hope is he can turn his blazing speed into plus defense in center and plenty of steals. Finally, there’s Tommy Hunter, who must claim his stake in the rotation before it becomes dominated by the likes of Feliz, Holland, and Martin Perez.

A couple names in that paragraph bring us to the top prospects that have yet to make their debuts, but will dazzle soon enough. Smoak is a slick fielder and a switch-hitting power guy, so we’ll forgive Texas fans for confusing him with Mark Teixeira. Keith Law spoke recently about the comp Martin Perez is prone to receive while on Bill Simmons’ podcast, talking about the similarities in stature and stuff between Perez and Johan Santana. High praise, indeed. But little left-handers with plus velocity and three pitches don’t grow on trees, so the list of comparable pitchers is pretty limited.

Texas has a lot of depth in the farm system, too, especially on the pitching side. This seems an apt place to mention my affinity for Robbie Ross, who I think becomes the next five-star Rangers prospect. The team just has a ridiculous amount of pitchers that can throw 94 mph, and just need to learn a little bit of command (Ross already has it, which is why I’m touting him). If the Rangers player development team can teach to control the fastball, then the hitting-friendly environment of Arlington won’t matter very soon.

More than anything, the Rangers impress me because they understand the value of building a farm system. They understand how to maximize the sale of your veteran assets, and they understand the value of reinvesting in the draft. The team has found its footing on the international market again, and should be considered a player for every top prospect in that scene. Some tough lessons have shown them the light — sustained success isn’t found on the free agent market, but in developing stars yourself. The fruits of this newfound labor will be felt in Texas for a long time.

The Rangers are coming off of a 87 win campaign in which they finished 10 games back of the Angels. This year CHONE has them winning between 85-86 wins depending on the method, the FANS have them at 84, and PECOTA has them at 83. Those win levels are good for 1st in the West, but the margin is never more than 5 games, and mostly 0-2 games.

The infield returns all four starters from 2009 and project to be above average on the whole. Michael Young, whose offense rebounded in 2009 to post his highest wOBA (0.385) and WAR (3.8) since 2005, returns to man third base. He is projected to see a decline from that level and likely post something in the high 2s or low 3s. Chris Davis brings his feeble contact rates back to play first base again, and is the one of the few position players that projects to be below average at 1.5 WAR. Ian Kinsler projects to be the star of the group at 4 WAR as he projects to combine average defense with above-average offense. The most interesting, at least personally, member of the infield is Elvis Andrus. Yesterday Dave mentioned that he was one of the largest discrepancies between FAN projections (4.1 WAR) and CHONE (1.6 WAR). I could see that window of potential performances being very realistic, which would put his mean somewhere in the upper 2s.

The outfield of Josh Hamilton in left, Julio Borbon in center and Nelson Cruz in right all project to be in the neighborhood of 3 WAR. All three project to be average to above average with the glove and similarly above average with the bat. At DH they will see if they can squeeze some more life out of Vladimir Guerrero, with David Murphy providing a decent fallback option if Vlad’s knees spontaneously combust. The catching duo of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden don’t project to be world beaters (1.5 WAR each), but that will get you by at that position.

The starting pitching is a lot like the position players in that none of them project to be stars, but they all project to be pretty solid. The closest to a star quality projection would be Rich Harden who projects to have a FIP in the mid-to-upper 3s. The question with Harden is the same as it always is, health. The de facto “Ace” is Scott Feldman and his cutter. The projection systems weren’t overwhelmed by Feldman’s 18 wins and project him to have a FIP in the 4.50 range. Colby Lewis, back from Japan, is a hard player for the forecasters to handle given his lack of MLB experience combined with a dominant year in Japan, but a FIP in the low 4s seems pretty reasonable. The back of the rotation looks like converted reliever C.J. Wilson and Matt Harrison at least for a little while (check out Matt’s piece on C.J.). The wildcard here is Neftali Feliz who is projected to put up a FIP in the mid 3s as a starter, but may spend some time in the pen.

The bullpen looks to be a strength again with closer Frank Francisco, lefty Darren Oliver, and the aforementioned Feliz all having projected FIPs in the mid 3s.

Add all of this up and you have a very solid team with few weaknesses that appears to have solid depth, so it’s no wonder that a lot of the projection systems have them at the top of their division.

The Dodgers released Brian Barton. Meanwhile, Garret Anderson will evidently make the opening day roster. There’s something amusing about these two statements.

Anderson is a veteran. He’s fought in numerous baseballing wars endured in the Los Angeles market for years upon years. Anderson’s career has become a parody of itself. In the past he was always the choice for most underrated player, and now he’s just bad and overrated. Since 2005 Anderson has been an above average hitter once and above average fielder once. His combined WAR during that time is 2.8, but he’s been paid in excess of $40M to be an annually below average player. He figures to back-up the outfield and first base positions while pinch hitting as well.

Barton is considerably younger than Anderson, right-handed – which may ultimately be his downfall – and also an outfielder. His Major League sample size is too small to draw conclusions from and in 640 Triple-A plate appearances, his OPS is only .720, although that underrates Barton, who walks more than the usual minor leaguer. He’s still cheap, offers more upside, and he’s fast. If those reasons aren’t enough to secure Barton a roster spot over Anderson, then so be it. However, the Dodgers will regret this maneuver if the National League institutes a rule surrounding aerodynamics knowledge and scoring runs.

Oh yes, Barton has knowledge of aerodynamics, and as he shared in this interview a few years back, he grew up dreaming of being an astronaut, and how the pursuit of those dreams affected his status as a baseball player:

BB: When I was younger I had dreams. I wanted to be an astronaut growing up. As I got older and older, I really just wanted to be a baseball player. Everything else at that point became secondary. This is my dream and what I’ve spent pretty much all my life doing. And then from the outside world it was almost taken from me because a lot of people–the majority I didn’t even know–felt like they knew what I wanted out of life. That was one of the main things that hurt, especially when draft day came up. A lot of people who never saw me play, a lot of people I’ve never even talked to in my life now had what I saw as a pretty glaring role in determining my future.

That kind of bothers me a little bit because I think any time you make a decision on me you should at least come talk to me–know what’s going on in my mind before you just assume things.

As an aside: Human beings generally classify people based on three physical attributes. Those are: Shape, size, and color. For the life of me, I can’t shake the idea that somewhere, in some manila folder on some desktop is a scouting report that compares Barton to another black outfielder with speed and smarts; that outfielder being the scholarly Fernando Perez.

There is a case to be made here that Barton is a better player at this point in time. He is easily a superior defender and baserunner, and the average wOBA of his CHONE and ZiPS projections is .307. Anderson’s CHONE/ZiPS average is roughly .314. That’s about a run difference over 200 plate appearances, which disintegrates once the aforementioned defensive and baserunning are taken into account.

And hey, even if you don’t buy into the argument that Barton could be a Dodger, he should definitely be on Cistulli’s All Joy Team, right?