I’ve been toying with a few posts for the last day or two, and frankly, I just could not give any of these full-post treatment. Instead, here are all three at once for your consumption.

Bruiser ‘Brook

Jake Westbrook missed all of the 2009 season minus nine minor league innings and only served the Indians with 34 innings in 2008. He’s back. Unfortunately, he forgot to pack something. Namely his control. In three outings, Westbrook has walked 10 batters (none intentionally) and hit four batters – two in each of his first two starts.

Westbrook is no stranger to plunking batters – he average seven per season from 2003-2007 – but that mark leads the league. Amusingly, another starter returning from injury – Rich Harden – also has four with a lot of walks.

The Mariners infielder switcharoo

When Seattle decided to flip Chone Figgins and Jose Lopez, one of the theories was that they wanted the better fielder to get more opportunities on batted balls. Well, that’s worked so far … if Lopez is who they consider the better fielder. It’s early, but Lopez has seen 41 balls in his zone (making plays on 35) and Figgins has only seen 29 (making plays on 26). It’s early, so the numbers don’t mean too much, but Figgins has also made seven fewer out of zone plays than Lopez.

The Boston marathon

You knew this already. Nobody, but nobody, respects the ability of either Jason Varitek or Victor Martinez to throw a runner out. Call the tandem Defensive Indifference, because it’s almost unfair that Carl Crawford is going to be padding his stolen base figures against this group all season. Check out the leaderboards under steals allowed and you’ll find:

Tim Wakefield 10
Josh Beckett 6
Jon Lester 5

Running on the elder knuckleballer is a given, but the other two? Beckett has a combined 36 against him the past three seasons. He’s on a decisively worse path this season. Lester, meanwhile, actually had 19 steals against him last season, but only 21 in his other 59 career starts. Even John Lackey has allowed two steals. This unit is some kind of bad at throwing out runners.

With Ted Lilly’s return from the DL imminent, the Cubs had a decision to make. With two lefties already in the bullpen, the Cubs needed to move one of their right handed starters to the bullpen. There had been speculation abounding that Carlos Zambrano could possibly be the odd man out of the rotation, but few actually believed that manager Lou Piniella would expel him from the rotation over obvious choice Carlos Silva.

However, Piniella surprised us all this afternoon, announcing that Carlos Zambrano would indeed be moving to the pen. That leaves the Cubs rotation with Randy Wells, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Tom Gorzelanny, and Carlos Silva.

As I wrote earlier this month, I no longer consider Zambrano to be an elite pitcher. However, he is quite clearly one of the top-five starting pitchers in the Chicago Cubs’ staff. Zambrano’s FIP has typically been in the 4.00-4.50, but a good year last year suppressing the home run ball led to a 3.61 FIP, a 3.6 WAR, and his best season in three years. The projection systems saw Zambrano as a 3.90-4.10 FIP pitcher for 2010, and even despite his slow start, ZiPS’s updated projections expect a 3.80 FIP for the rest of the season.

Carlos Silva, on the other hand, has earned a starting rotation spot solely on the basis of two starts. Silva is 31 and coming off of two terrible seasons with the Mariners. None of the projection systems entering the season projected Silva to be better than a 4.64 FIP starter – above replacement level, but far worse than Zambrano, Dempster, or Wells, the other three right handed starters on the Cubs roster.

Not only that, but a move to the bullpen for Zambrano eliminates his greatest asset – his durability. Last season was the only year since 2003 in which Zambrano didn’t throw 200 innings, and he still made 30 starts and threw 188.2 innings. Zambrano’s been worth at least 2.8 wins per season in that time frame, and that’s in spite of his second-tier peripherals. Simply put, there aren’t many pitchers, regardless of their skill, who can throw that many innings year-in and year-out.

Silva, on the other hand, is fresh off an injury in 2009 and also missed time due to injury in 2008. He threw as many innings in 2008 and 2009 combined as Zambrano did in 2009 alone. Not only that, but even in his two excellent starts as a Cub, Silva’s fastball velocity is still 1.4 MPH lower than it was in his 3.3 WAR 2007 with Minnesota.

Carlos Zambrano is simply a better pitcher than Carlos Silva. Carlos Zambrano is simply a more durable pitcher than Carlos Silva. Instead of getting 180-200 innings out of one of his top pitchers, Lou Piniella is instead opting for about 40 to 50 innings from him and then 100 to 150 out of a pitcher who projected as average at best coming into the season. The Cubs’ chances at the division were low coming into the season. If Piniella’s rash and irrational decision stays in place, they become virtually nil.

Along with the rollout to the improved UZR data, catcher defense is now incorporated into WAR from 2003 onward. In this case we’ve opted to use the Stolen Base Runs Saved (rSB on FanGraphs) from the Fielding Bible:

Stolen Base Runs Saved gives the catcher credit for throwing out runners and preventing them from attempting steals in the first place.

For the most part, all catchers will remain about the same in value, especially on an individual season basis. But certain ones, like Yadier Molina, ends up with an extra 3.6 wins over the past 6 years. On the down side, Jason Varitek probably sees the biggest decrease in value, with -2.2 wins being attributed to his catcher defense since 2003.

Adding a new pitch has often been used as an explanation for a breakout year by a pitcher. But with the narrative bias it was important to be skeptical of such claims: when a pitcher adds a pitch and does well we hear about it, when he adds a pitch and nothing happens it is ignored — did you know that Jon Garland added a cutter last year! With the pitchf/x pitch-by-pitch data, we are better equipped to systematically look at the effect of adding a pitch.

Over the past weekend we had the interesting reverse of this story with some suggesting that Kyle Kendrick’s and Cole Hamels‘, before they pitched very well on Sunday and Tuesday, high ERAs were due to them adding the cutter. It shows how tempting it is to find anything to explain what is almost surely variation from a small sample size. Had Kendrick and Hamels pitched amazingly in their first games everyone would have credited the new pitch. And after both pitched well in their last outings I am sure the narratives will change.

Anyway, the point is that, right now, with both pitchers having thrown less than 20 innings, we cannot possibly assess how the cutter has or will affect the two pitchers. The data does show them throwing the new pitch: Hamels about 14% of the time to the expense of all of his other pitches, and Kendrick over 30% of the time giving up completely on his slider (and it does look to me like the cutter is a distinct pitch and not just a reclassification of the slider). It is just too early to say what this will mean for them (more ground balls? smaller platoon splits? …). But as the season progresses these new-pitch pitchers are interesting to check out because adding a new pitch can have a large effect as Carson, Matt, Mike and I talked about in a recent podcast.

Despite a late-season collapse that, for the second straight year, removed them from the playoffs, the Mets had reason to be excited after the 2008 season. Their 2005 first-round draft pick, Mike Pelfrey, had just completed 200.2 innings of quality work, the first time he had done so in the majors. He left room for improvement, too. His 4.93 K/9 ranked near the bottom of the NL among qualified starters, something he could certainly build on in his sophomore year.

While Pelfrey did increase his strikeout rate, it was’t by much, just to 5.22 per nine. In fact, this shows why strikeouts per nine might not be the best analytical tool. In 2008 Pelfrey struck out 12.93 percent of the batters he faced. In 2009 he struck out 13 percent. An improvement it was not. As expected his minuscule 0.54 HR/9 rate from 2008 rose, though only to 0.88, while his walk rate also increased, though not by much. These small changes, along with a nearly 20-point jump in BABIP, led to a poor season for Pelfrey, a 5.03 ERA. Both FIP, 4.39, and xFIP, 4.52, rated him better, so there was reason for some optimism.

In 2010 Pelfrey has jumped out to a tremendous start. In 21 innings of work he has allowed just two runs, none of which have come via the home run. He has even earned a save. Encouragingly, he has struck out hitters at a greater rate than last year, 19.75 percent. While Pelfrey has a few more starts before this number becomes reliable — K/PA stabilizes at about 150 batters faced — it’s a good start. Then again, his swinging strike percentage ranks right around where it did in 2007 and 2008, so perhaps his K rate will drop with it.

One of the biggest differences Pelfrey has shown in these 21 innings is the frequency with which he achieves a first-pitch strike. Of the 81 batters he has faced, 48 have seen an 0-1 count while five have put the ball in play, only one of which has fallen for a hit. The batters facing an 0-1 count have not fared well, going just 9 for 45 with a double. Ten of them have struck out. The 48 0-1 counts might not be the sole key to Pelfrey’s success, but they surely play a role.

Another quirk from Pelfrey’s early performance: he has gone to the fastball less often. According to his PitchFX page, Pelfrey has thrown 45.2 percent four-seamers, down from 70.9 percent. That might be an algorithmic issue, though, as his two-seam percentage is up to 24.4 percent from 6.2 percent. Still, the combined total, 69.6 percent, falls below his fastball totals from last year, 77.1 percent, and in 2008, 81.5 percent. He has compensated by going to his changeup far more often 11.5 percent, which is more than double the rate he has used it over the past two years.

Next time one of us writes about Pelfrey, his numbers certainly will not look this pretty. He will surrender home runs, and hitters will produce better than a .231 BABIP against him. His strand rate, 90.5 percent right now, will also dip. There are indicators, though, that he might have made the necessary adjustments this season. He’s going to his secondary pitches more often, and is putting himself in favorable counts. He still has to do it for 30 more starts, but if Pelfrey continues his current trends he just might fulfill the hopes the Mets had for him in 2005.

You know the drill. I’ll be around at noon to field questions for an hour.

Perhaps not as visibly as Jack Moore’s earlier morning post on a reliever making good, Jay Sborz closed out his fifth game of the season in perfect fashion last night for the Toledo Mudhens. The second round pick way back in the 2003 draft, Sborz has fought through a barrage of injuries, and is currently standing above the slew of Tigers relief prospects as the right-hander deserving of the first call up to Motown.

In six appearances this season, Sborz has yet to allow a run, and has struck out eight of the 22 batters he has faced. More importantly, for a guy who entered the year with a career 5.7 BB/9 (and subsequently walked 7 in 4 innings in big league camp this spring), he has walked just one Triple-A batter.

Sborz was drafted in the second round of a disastrous 2003 draft for the Tigers, which started with Kyle Sleeth as the third overall pick, and has produced just these five big league players: Tony Giarratano, Virgil Vasquez, Brian Rogers, Jordan Tata and Dusty Ryan. However, Sborz has a chance to improve upon that list, as the Tigers have never given up on his big arm, even adding him to the 40-man roster this winter. Out of a Virginia high school, Sborz was chosen as the draft’s hardest teenage thrower alongside Indians first rounder Adam Miller.

As you might guess, command problems were Sborz’ first bugaboo, as he spent two seasons in the Gulf Coast League working on location, and combined to walk 58 batters in 86.1 innings. He has started just 11 games since then, moving to full-time relief work when he fully returned from Tommy John surgery in 2008. However, even since then, he’s never pitched 60 innings in a season, and has been plagued with shoulder problems even since his elbow was fixed. Still, from 2008 until today, he’s pitched about 90 innings, posted a 2.49 ERA, and struck out a batter an inning.

While the 96 mph velocity from his high school days are gone, Sborz can still dial it to 93-94, and his slider is sharper than ever. But stuff has never been the question for Sborz, and I don’t think it will be even at the highest level. It’s two things that Sborz must be past for this career revival to have a chance: he must stay healthy, and his fastball must stay in the zone.

The Tigers have been loading up on relief prospects the last few seasons — no surprise given their bullpen problems from the last three years — including taking relievers with seven of their first 10 picks in the 2008 draft. However, the best of the minor league bunch might be a once forgotten bonus baby that will see the Major Leagues soon after eight years of fighting.

Along with Heath Bell, Padres reliever Mike Adams forms one of the best closer and set up man tandems in the National League. That tandem was on display last night against San Francisco, as Bell and Adams combined for a +.247 WPA in the 8th and 9th innings of a victory, a victory that came despite the fact that Jonathan Sanchez and Sergio Romo combined to throw 8 innings of one-hit ball.

Adams’s early career with the Milwaukee Brewers was unremarkable. In 2004, his first season, he posted a decent 3.71 FIP in 53.0 IP, but was quickly derailed by injuries in 2005. He played for four different teams in 2006 and didn’t even pitch professionally in 2007.

Adams then resurfaced with San Diego in 2008, and he did so in style, posting a 10.19 K/9 and a 3.13 FIP. In 2009, he improved upon all his already solid numbers, posting a 10.95 K/9, a meager 1.95 BB/9, and a microscopic 0.24 HR/9, good for a 1.66 FIP and 1.3 WAR as a setup man.

After watching Adams pitch last night, his career resurgence isn’t surprising at all – his stuff is ridiculous. Adams posted a 10.1% swinging strike rate in his decent 2004 season, and finally returned to that level in 2008, with an 11.0% rate. That rate jumped again in Adams’s fantastic 2009, all the way up to 14.4%. His combination of a mid-90s fastball with effective breaking pitches makes for a formidable opponent for hitters.

The most remarkable change in Adams’s career is the dramatic increase in swings drawn on balls out of the zone. In his first 55 innings, Adams only drew a “chase rate” of 14.8%. Now, Adams ranks in the top 25 relievers in the game, drawing chases on nearly 30% of balls out of the zone. Despite actually throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone, Adams has managed to increase his strikeouts and decrease walks and solid contact allowed with deceptive pitches.

There is a definite chance that Heath Bell will be on his way out of San Diego by this season’s trading deadline. If so, the Padres won’t see much of a drop off from the closer position, as Adams has taken his stuff to a new level in San Diego.

Tonight happens today, on this edition of One Night Only.

Kansas City at Toronto, 1:05 pm ET
Royals: Zack Greinke (R)
17.2 IP, 7.13 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, .334 BABIP, 41.4% GB, 7.7% HR?FB, 4.78 xFIP
Projected FIP: 2.85 (FAN) 2.98 (CHONE) 2.93 (ZiPS)
L-R Splits: 0.02 run normal split in 905.2 IP

Blue Jays: Shaun Marcum (R)
20.0 IP, 7.65 K/9, 1.35 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 43.1% GB, 9.5% HR/FB, 3.33 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 4.43 (CHONE) 4.47 (ZiPS)
L-R Splits: 0.45 run normal split in 416.2 IP

Making his return from Tommy John surgery, Shaun Marcum has started the season better than even the smartest person in the world (i.e. Tavis Smiley) could’ve guessed. So far on the season he’s throwing his changepiece a quarter of the time and has registered a full 33% whiff rate on the pitch. That’s what we in the industry call “off the hook.”

You know what Carson Cistulli likes? (I mean, besides the ladies?) Answer: career minor leaguers getting their first real shot at the bigs. If you haven’t already, say hello to 29-year-old Mike McCoy. Here’s an interesting thing McCoy did in 2009 at Colorado’s Triple-A affiliate: slashed .307/.405/.400. Here’s another interesting thing he did: went 40-for-46 on stolen base attempts in 132 games. Before we all go peeing each other’s pants with excitement, it’s important to note that Colorado Springs (where McCoy plied his trade last year) has a park factor of right around a million*. But his profile suggests that he won’t be the terriblest player on the block, and CHONE thinks he plays a league-average short.

*Give or take.

If you’re like me, you have amazing hair and flawless skin. You also have a notion that Edwin Encarnacion might have a decent year, if and when he recovers from his current shoulder situation. In 2009, over stints with both Cincy and Toronto, Encarnacion suffered the baleful effects of a .245 BABIP. That number stands far below the .295 mark he’d posted over his career till then. Is he still kinda a sucky defender? Almost definitely, yes. But what in the H does my fantasy team care about that?

Fred Lewis is a lightning rod for nerd controversy. He’s also a Blue Jay now, and has batted leadoff and played left field for the past three games. When the aforementioned Encarnacion returns to third, Jose Bautista will stop playing there and the outfield situation will get crowdeder. How will this drama unfold?

A few days I wrote about Charlie Morton — the Pirates’ young starter with ethereal velocity who had been knocked around quite a bit despite not walking anyone and fanning a good number. Well, meet Mitch Talbot. So far, Talbot is the anti-Morton. In two starts, he’s tallied 14 innings, three strikeouts, five walks, and an ERA in the low-3s.

The Indians acquired Talbot over the off-season from the Tampa Bay Rays for Kelly Shoppach. For years Talbot slaved in Triple-A, waiting for a job to open up in the Tampa rotation without much avail. He simply entered the organization at the wrong point in time, a year earlier and who knows what the book on Talbot would be. Here are his lines from those three separate stints in Triple-A Durham:

2007: 161 IP, 6.93 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.00 FIP
2008: 161 IP, 7.88 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 3.03 FIP
2009: 54.1 IP, 6.63 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 3.55 FIP

Talbot battled injuries in 2009, but otherwise it’s easy to see why the Indians thought he could help their rotation now, and as such, selected him as the player in the trade rather than the younger Joseph Cruz. Anyhow, Talbot’s fastball sits in the low-90s, he tosses a cutter, and he throws a change-up that was named the best in the Rays (and before being traded to Tampa Bay) and Astros’ system for something like four years running.

It’s hard to get worked up over 14 innings, but boy, Talbot’s not missing any bats to date. A 2% swinging strike rate is absurdly low and while Talbot’s 55% GB rate is nice, he was never known to be that much of a groundball pitcher. He’s pitching like Nick Blackburn right now, except Blackburn has nearly 6% swinging strikes for his career.

Talbot has thrown a combined 58 cutters and sliders without a single whiff. Considering those two pitches are making up nearly 30% of his total pitches thrown, and that another 48% is devoted to his four-seam fastball (holder of a horrifying 3.1% whiff rate), it’s really pretty impressive that Talbot has found any success through two starts.

Don’t expect the ERA to maintain its shine if his stuff continues to show none of its own.