Last year I wrote an article about Luis Castillo’s extreme approach at the plate. His no-power swing rarely missed, so he could take a large number of pitches with under two strikes, because, if he got to two strikes, he had little chance of whiffing on strike three. The upshot was that he extended at-bats hoping to accumulate enough balls to get a walk or find a pitch he really liked to hit. It is an intriguing approach for low-power guys who have the contact skills and plate discipline to pull it off.

So far this year the new poster boy for such an approach is Brett Gardner. He has always employed it to some extent but this year taken it to new levels with his league-lowest 30% swing rate and 40% Z-swing rate. Gardner does not have quite the contact skills of Castillo — though has more power — but so far this year he has shown an amazing ability to make contact with pitches in the zone. Here are all the pitches Gardner has seen so far this year, color coded by pitch type. Pitches he took are in a light color and pitches he whiffed are encircled.

At least according to pitchf/x he has whiffed on nothing unequivocally in the zone (the plate discipline section on the player pages is based on BIS data). He has whiffed on some breaking and off-speed stuff below the zone and on a couple of fastballs above the zone, but not much. You can also see the huge number of pitches he has taken in the strike zone.

Gardner is not going to keep up his .419 wOBA — buoyed by a .380 BABIP and 13 steals on 14 attempts — and probably will not have more walks than strikeouts at the end of the year. But even before this year he was an above-average offensive player and these first 94 PAs suggest he will be even better this year.

Prior to the 2010 season, the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system was ranked by a few publications “in the know” (including myself) as one of the five worst in all of Major League Baseball. The ranking was based mainly on the poor depth in the system. However, now in early May, the club could argue that it currently has the top rookie pitcher and second-best rookie hitter (Atlanta’s Jason Heyward being No. 1) in the National League. Dave Cameron recently took a look at left-handed starter Jaime Garcia so I’ll focus on third baseman David Freese, whom we ranked as the club’s eighth best prospect entering 2010.

Freese is no ordinary rookie. While most rookies tend to reach the Majors between the ages of 22 and 24, he’s already 27 years old. He’s not even really a late bloomer. The San Diego Padres organization nabbed Freese in the ninth round of the 2006 draft out of the University of South Alabama as a fifth-year senior. With a previous tour through a community college, the infielder was already 23 years old when he entered pro ball.

Here is a pre-draft scouting report on Freese from the draft experts at Baseball America:

…He has big-time raw power and mashes balls to all fields when he gets his arms extended. Freese’s approach is good; his defense at third base is not. He’ll probably have to play first base, though some scouts suggest he could catch. There, however, his arm strength and throwing motion could be problematic.

Freese did continue to hit well in the minors, as per his scouting report. His career minor-league line is .308/.384/.531 in just under 400 games. He even slugged 26 homers in ’08 at triple-A, and posted back-to-back 90 RBI seasons in ’07 and ’08. The third baseman looked poised to secure the third base job in St. Louis at the start of ’09 but his hopes were dashed by an injury.

So far this season, Freese is hitting .360/.404/.547 in 97 at-bats. He’s tied for fourth in the Majors with Andre Ethier of the Dodgers with a .360 average; he’s second in rookies to Austin Jackson’s .376 average. Like the Tigers prospect, though, Freese has been aided by a very healthy BABIP at .438 (a trend that began in the minors). Unlike Jackson, the Cardinals prospect has a more reasonable strikeout rate at 23.3%, although still high.

Freese has also displayed signs of being a run producer with 19 RBI in 24 games. His power output has been modest to this point with three homers and a .186 ISO, but he does have seven doubles. Much of his power is to the opposite field, with a .429 ISO rate on balls to right field, compared to .130 to center and .186 to left. Freese is absolutely killing southpaws early on with a .500 average (11-for-22). He’s also enjoying his time at home with a wOBA of .568, compared to .271 on the road.

Defensively, Freese is still a work in progress. He’s an average defender at best, based on his historical scouting reports, and the early report from UZR is a respectable rating of 1.2 – although it’s too early to read too much into it.

If we look at Freese’s ZiPS updated projection, it has him producing a line of .294/.351/.460 with a highly-respectable .357 wOBA. By comparison, the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year, Chris Coghlan, had a .372 wOBA. It’s still quite early in the season but I’m willing to admit I may have been a little too cautious in my ranking of Freese. It will be interesting to see how his numbers look at the end of May.

Willie Mays turned 79-years-old today.

It’s easy to look at Mays and the (few) players of his ilk and start waxing poetically. Getting entrenched in Mays’ greatness is nearly unavoidable. Read an article about Mays or look at his player page and the enchantment will suck you up like quicksand. There’s a lot to be written and a lot to be read about Mays. About his being the prince of the sepia-toned utopia. About his pain. About his fights with villains just to take the field as a black. About his ability to make basket catches easier than N.B.A. rims. Even about his supposed tarnish legacy by spending some time with the New York Mets.

There’s a legitimate case to be made that Mays is the best baseball player ever. Rally’s WAR has him amassing about 155 wins over his career, which puts him fourth all-time behind names like Cobb, Bonds, and Ruth; and just ahead of names like Aaron, Wagner, Speaker, and Musial. Presumably most of the reading audience did not get to enjoy Mays with the baseball knowledge they’ve since acquired. But if a poll were to be taken on which recent player people thought most emulated Mays’ style of play, doesn’t Ken Griffey Jr. glide by with victory?

Everyone knows the tale of Griffey’s body deserting him and depriving the world of the opportunity to say they just saw the best ballplayer to ever live – although, Bonds … — and everyone knows that Griffey made highlight reel grabs, hit towering home runs, and did it all while rocking his cap backwards. Even his nickname, The Kid, is a play on Mays’ Say Hey Kid moniker. And, like it or not, the twilight of Griffey’s playing days are taking a certain resemblance to Mays’.

Griffey has a .237 wOBA this year and an aggregate batting line of .214/.316/.386 since rejoining the Mariners prior to the 2009 season. 26.4% of Griffey’s balls in play have turned into hits this season – a stark increase from 22% last season – and Griffey is even striking out less than in 2009, yet his batting average is worse, his walks have dropped, and his power is non-existent. Griffey Jr. is a designated hitter and yet his upside might be a .305 wOBA.

Even the ticket office and merchandise boosts Griffey supposedly gave the Mariners have disappeared. Seattle has already set a record low in Safeco Field attendance this season, and their series against the Tampa Bay Rays has about as many plastic chairs present as fans. The venom for Griffey might be at an all-time high as well. There’s no upside here.

For all intent and purposes, it’s time. And Griffey probably knows it. The amazing thing about the end of Mays’ career is how much play it gets. You know, that 1973 season saw Mays appear in 66 games and post a .302 wOBA. In 1972 he appeared in 88 games and hit for a .365 wOBA. In the years before that, Mays had consecutive .400 wOBA seasons. What Mays did in 1973 did not tarnish his legacy. What Griffey Jr. is doing now should not tarnish his legacy. Griffey Jr. is a ballplayer hanging around for one more curtain call, one more big hit, and one more doubleheader. This is hardly an unusual end to the career of a superstar.

What Mays did though, by walking away at the first sign that it was time … that’s something I don’t think Griffey or most players would ever be able to emulate. And I think that speaks to just how special Willie Mays is and will forever be.

The Rays stand at 20-7, and are owners of baseball’s best record. They lead the American League in run differential, but that’s only natural, considering they are first in runs scored and first in fewest runs allowed. While they might sustain the latter, with an excellent pitching staff and a terrific defense, their offensive performance is a bit more of a house of cards.

Despite leading MLB in run scoring to date, the Rays offense hasn’t actually been all that great. They rank 10th in the league with a .337 wOBA, which is above average but not dramatically so. By comparison, the Yankees have a .365 wOBA, but have scored nine fewer runs. What gives?

Timely hitting. With the bases empty, the Rays are batting .227/.308/.373, and their .681 OPS in that situation ranks 19th in the league. With men on base, however, the Rays are at .306/.381/.490, second best in baseball. With runners in scoring position, they are hitting .319/.403/.524, again, second best in baseball.

The league average OPS goes up fifty points when a runner reaches base. The Rays OPS has gone up 190 points in those situations, and even further still when runners get to second or third. As such, they have a team Weighted Runs Created of 133 runs, or 27 runs fewer than they’ve actually scored.

This won’t last, of course. No team can hit this well with men on base over a full season. If the Rays want to keep playing baseball at their current level, they’re going to have to begin to start some rallies, rather than relying on getting so much production from the ones they’re creating now.

I continue to steal from Dave Cameron’s review format below. Here’s what seems clear after a month of minor league action:

Brandon Belt likes wood.

What a coup it was when the Texas Longhorns managed to convince Brandon Belt to come to Austin, rather than sign with the Atlanta Braves, following his freshman season at San Jacinto Junior College. Belt was considered one of the top JuCo transfers in the nation, a big left-handed slugger that could double as a power southpaw out of the bullpen. However, in two seasons with Texas, Belt never took the jump that scouts and coaches alike expected. Yes, his junior season he still sported a .329/.429/.532 batting line, but by college first base standards, this is hardly other-worldly.

Given his build, his potential, his batting practice showings, Belt still showed enough to be drafted in the fifth round last season by the San Francisco Giants. Assigned to San Jose of the California League for his professional debut, Belt has been a revelation since moving to wood bats. He is one of four hitters in the minors batting .400, he leads the minors with a .510 on-base percentage, and his .640 slugging ranks 14th. Belt has essentially been platooned with the SJ Giants — he only has 8 AB against LHP — but is showing patience, bat control and gap power that make him a real prospect.

In 75 at-bats through 24 games, Belt has just 8 strikeouts against 17 walks. He has 12 extra-base hits, and has even managed seven steals. This is what Augie Garrido and the Texas staff thought they were getting when Belt arrived in Austin, but Belt is showing the rare skill to have more comfort with wood than aluminum. He is a real prospect, and looks to be a great pick by San Francisco.

Derek Holland should be in the Majors.

The Rangers are experiencing a wild change in fortune this season, as, for the first time in who-knows-how-long, the pitching staff (121 ERA+) is currently outpacing the offensive output (82 OPS+). I don’t know how long this will last — Justin Smoak hasn’t hit his stride, Nelson Cruz is on the shelf — but it’s clear that with C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis and even Rich Harden, the Texas staff is the best it has been in awhile. And yet, it could be better.

We have written before on this site about Derek Holland’s misfortune last season — a 6.12 ERA vs. a 4.38 xFIP. And when Holland suffered an injury in Spring Training, it became pretty clear that he had earned a ticket back to Triple-A. But now through six minor league starts, it seems silly for him to be wasting time with minor league hitters. Through 38.2 innings, Holland has allowed one home run, 7 walks and struck out 37 batters (0.93 ERA). He is ready.

When the realization hits that Scott Feldman isn’t good, or that Holland is better than Matt Harrison, I don’t know. But locked in a dogfight division, the Rangers would be best served finding clarity about their best pitching staff soon.

The Giants farm system just wins, baby.

More a fun tidbit than a telling statistic, I do think it’s noteworthy that the San Francisco Giants four minor league affiliates are a combined 61-42, two games better in the standings than any other Major League team. This is not indicative, nor should it be a factor, of any farm system rankings (the Mets are second), but I do think the 21 point advantage the Giants have in winning percentage over their competition is noteworthy.

The Low-A Augusta Greenjackets are 16-11, and have received a team-leading five home runs from catcher Tommy Joseph, and 2009 first-round pick Zack Wheeler’s last two starts have been great: 9.2 innings, 6 hits, 0 ER, 6 walks, 13 strikeouts. I’ve mentioned Belt’s contributions to the 13-11 San Jose Giants, who have another college bloomer in former NC State ace Eric Surkamp, who continues to be brilliant in all three FIP categories.

The Richmond Flying Squirrels, the Giants new Double-A affiliate, are 15-11 despite little contributions from actual prospects: Thomas Neal (.235/.324/.357), Brandon Crawford (.224/.324/.353) or Roger Kieschnick (.284/.324/.337). Leading the charge are the 17-9 Fresno Grizzlies,armed with Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner, but getting their biggest contributions from good ol’ Joe Borchard, hitting .360/.455/.640.

After spending time in limited roles over the last two seasons, it appears that Ian Stewart has finally locked down a permanent spot at third base with the 2010 Rockies. Wednesday night was supposed to be a day off for Stewart, but he still found a way into the game. In only his 3rd pinch-hit appearance of the year, Stewart drilled a Tim Stauffer offering into the seats for what would prove to be the game-winning home run.

Last night’s home run continues what has begun as Stewart’s best major league performance as of yet. Stewart’s triple slash line of .271/.370/.482 entering Wednesday night’s game is the best line he’s posted in all of the three categories. Naturally, that means his .367 wOBA and 118 wRC+ are also currently career highs.

Right now, there aren’t any indicators that show this start to be any sort of significant fluke. His BABIP of .322 is only one hit higher than his career line of .307 – 19/59 vs. 18/59. His HR/FB is up to 22.7% after last night’s shot, but that’s only one HR higher than his 2009 rate of 18.8%.

The key so far for Stewart has been a roughly five point drop in strikeout rate, down from 32.5% and 33% career to 27.1% so far this year. That’s still a high rate, and one that will likely prevent the 25-year-old Stewart to become a superstar in this league, but the drop has allowed Stewart to increase his batting average, and more importantly, his OBP.

Throughout his professional career, the discipline has been there and the power has been there. For Stewart to make the jump to the next level, the contact has to develop. After earning a starting role for the 2010 season, it appears that Stewart is doing just that.

It feels like Brian Moehler has been around forever. The major league portion of his career began way back in 1996 with the Tigers. In 2002 he moved on to the Reds. After that he flip flopped from the Astros to the Marlins a few times, but he’s settled in Houston since the 2007 season. In that year, he made 42 appearances without a single start. The Astros would have him start 26 games (of 31 appearances) in 2008 and all 29 of his 2009 appearances stemmed from the rotation.

This year, the Astros are using him as a low leverage reliever. Okay, perhaps the better term is extremely low leverage reliever. His average leverage index is 0.08. His seasonal debut came with a five run deficit in the ninth. His next outing began with the Astros trailing by five runs. After a week off, the Astros gave him a moderately important situation and Moehler did fine; entering down by one versus the Chicago Cubs in the eighth inning and escaping without further damage. Since then, though, Moehler is yet to enter a game in which the Astros lead nor are they within three runs of the opposition.

The odd thing is that Moehler isn’t even that bad of a pitcher. Sure, he’s not Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt, or even Brandon Lyon, but there’s no shame in that. He’s projected to have a 4.55 FIP by ZiPS and his last three seasons have resulted in xFIP of 4.35, 4.49, and 4.67. Again, not great, but keep in mind Moehler made 55 starts during that span.

It would seem part of his usage is tied to his multiple inning ability. And hey, don’t look now, but the Astros’ pen has been pretty good so far. Their 3.89 FIP is better than most bullpens in the league. No matter the feelings on that ranking’s sustainability, the Astros probably can’t justify Moehler moving up the leverage chart quite yet, but I bet they do by season’s end.

While updating my numbers on the average run and out values of various batted ball types this past afternoon, I noticed what looked like an anomaly when it came to ground balls in the American League this season. The average run value of a ground ball was roughly half so far in 2010 of what it was in 2007-9. I assumed there had to be something off with my code and my first check was to look at the National League, but that did not turn up any unexpected results.

Curious, I spit out the odds of an out occurring on a groundball in each year as a chart. In years past, right around 66% of all ground balls were turned into a single out. An additional 7% caused a double play. The National League is almost exactly the same though it has had more single outs and slightly fewer double plays on account of there being fewer runners on base on average.

However, so far in 2010, those ratios are up to 68% and 7.5% in the American League while the National League shows no significant deviation. Now, that does not seem like much of a change from average in the AL numbers but consider that a ground ball is the single most likely outcome for any plate appearance. There are lots of them and any movement can reap big changes.

In 2009, hitters batted .239 on ground balls. That’s down to .210 in 2010 and there’s been a rise in double plays turned (and a triple play as well). All that adds up to a lot more outs, about 163 in fact. Over just under 4500 ground balls, you have outs up about 4%, but only in the AL. What’s changed? I have no idea, but right now ground ball hitters are having quite a tough time of it.

If Machiavelli ever penned a manual on how to operate as a general manager he would have undoubtedly included a chapter on how to extinguish the proverbial hot seat. Way number one: Win. Way number two: Win more. Way number three: Win even more. And so on until the options become more about shifting the responsibility of burden and the actions include firing personnel or trading players.

Fortunately for Omar Minaya, Jerry Manuel is giving him all kinds of signs that he’s ready for a post-managerial career. Unfortunately for Minaya, it would be the second manager he’s axed during his Mets’ tenure, and would place the heavily glowing spotlight over his own head. The way things are going, Minaya may not have a choice. He can cut Manuel loose and save his own job for the time being, or allow Manuel to drive the team into the wall and have them both dismissed at once.

Ignore the extra innings mismanagement of Francisco Rodriguez. That’s merely another bullet point on Manuel’s pink slip. Consider the horrendous handling of Jenrry Mejia to date. Manuel has instructed him to focus on his fastball – presumably the pitch that needs the least work for Mejia to become a good starter. If telling the organization’s best pitching prospect to disregard developing his secondary stuff isn’t enough, then how about then using that pitcher in lower leverage situations than just about everyone else in the bullpen? Manuel is actually using Mejia in the perfect developmental situations, yet he’s capping that development by disallowing him to throw his curve and change-up as often as he wants. Meanwhile, Mejia’s service clock continues to tick.

As for the other act of ridiculousness, it was an in-game maneuver that Manuel pulled earlier this afternoon. After allowing Fernando Tatis to pinch hit, Manuel elected to keep him in the ballgame … by removing David Wright. This decision came after Jason Bay had been removed, leaving Gary Matthews Jr. and Jeff Francoeur as the Mets’ corner outfielders. Rather than replace one of those with Tatis – the Mets’ emergency catcher, which is only important because that’s Manuel’s stated reason for keeping him in the game – Manuel decided it would help the team to replace his best player. You know, just in case Rod Barajas suffered an injury.

The Mets fittingly lost on a walkoff home run by Orlando Cabrera. This team is too big of a mess for one with so many excellent and enjoyable players like Jose Reyes, Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Johan Santana. It’s not just Manuel or just Minaya. It’s a combination. I’m not sure a great manager can overcome a poor general manager, and I don’t believe a great general manager would endure a poor manager. But when you get a pair of the same quality it leads either to beautiful fireworks or a bunch of self-inflicted burns. The Mets currently employ the latter. Truthfully, it’s hard to find an uglier design than what the Mets have in place with these two.

Apparently, struggling Baltimore Orioles OF/DH Luke Scott is running out of ideas on how to break out of his slump. Here’s one: just wait. I know, that’s really helpful. Seriously, Scott and his coaches (and probably opposing scouts) might be able to find something that’s wrong with his current approach and routine, although it does sound like he’s been frustrated on that score. But from the looks of things, Scott is the same hitter he was in past years, when he made up for a relatively low batting average with a good walk rate and power. Scott’s line so far this season really has been dreadful, as he’s “hitting” .177/.253/.354 for a .270 wOBA. That’s bad even for Jason Kendall. “Small sample size” is the first thing to say, and probably is all we need to say, quite frankly, but let’s dig a bit deeper.

Scott came to the Orioles from the Astros before the 2008 season, and hit .257/.336/.472 for a .343 wOBA in 2008, and improved on that line in 2009: .258/.340/.488, .355 wOBA. While Scott’s on-base percentage isn’t mind-blowing, that’s mostly due to his slightly below-average batting average, his walk rate has always been above average. His main asset other than his walks is his power, as his career ISO is .228. His walk rate has remained intact so far in 2010 at about 9.2%, which is only slightly lower than his usual rate. His strikeout rate has increased, however, jumping ot 29% whereas in recent seasons it has been between 21% and 23%. While his overall contact rate is about the same as in past seasons, he does seem to be swinging at a few more pitches out of the zone than usual (28.6 2010 O-Swing% vs. 23.2%), although it isn’t a drastic, perhaps a reflection of growing frustration. Scott’s isolated power is also down to .177, which isn’t bad. Scott’s batted ball profile is also roughly the same as always, with a slighly lower HR/FB ratio than in the past, which partly explains his lower isolated power. Scott’s never been reliant on a high BABIP, with a career BABIP under .300, but his current .208 average on balls in play is clearly founded on a whole lot of bad luck.

The Orioles as a whole have been terrible so far this season, just like Scott, but, like Scott, they aren’t as bad as they’ve looked. Scott’s struggles so far must be frustrating for the Orioles because he’s a good hitter on a cheap salary who has trade value as a left fielder (despite being pushed out of left by younger players, his defense there is average at worst) or a designated hitter, especially when teams with designs on the playoffs are starting players like Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Sweeney, Eric Chavez, Juan Pierre, and Pat Burrell at DH. But whether it’s for the Orioles or for some other team, the “secret” to Scott coming out of his struggles seems to be to wait around for his luck to even out.