The Clutch Rays
The Rays stand at 20-7, and are owners of baseball’s best record. They lead the American League in run differential, but that’s only natural, considering they are first in runs scored and first in fewest runs allowed. While they might sustain the latter, with an excellent pitching staff and a terrific defense, their offensive performance is a bit more of a house of cards.
Despite leading MLB in run scoring to date, the Rays offense hasn’t actually been all that great. They rank 10th in the league with a .337 wOBA, which is above average but not dramatically so. By comparison, the Yankees have a .365 wOBA, but have scored nine fewer runs. What gives?
Timely hitting. With the bases empty, the Rays are batting .227/.308/.373, and their .681 OPS in that situation ranks 19th in the league. With men on base, however, the Rays are at .306/.381/.490, second best in baseball. With runners in scoring position, they are hitting .319/.403/.524, again, second best in baseball.
The league average OPS goes up fifty points when a runner reaches base. The Rays OPS has gone up 190 points in those situations, and even further still when runners get to second or third. As such, they have a team Weighted Runs Created of 133 runs, or 27 runs fewer than they’ve actually scored.
This won’t last, of course. No team can hit this well with men on base over a full season. If the Rays want to keep playing baseball at their current level, they’re going to have to begin to start some rallies, rather than relying on getting so much production from the ones they’re creating now.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
That wOBA seems low for their lineup, do you expect their wOBA to increase or is .337 their true talent offensive ability?
Also, the Rays are an extremely fast and athletic team. They’ll outscore their wOBA ranking due to this, though clearly not by as much as they have been.
“If the Rays want to keep playing baseball at their current level, they’re going to have to begin to start some rallies, rather than relying on getting so much production from the ones they’re creating now. ”
Can you explain that last sentence? I’m failing to make the distinction between rallies they start and rallies they create.
The Rays are scoring a very high, and unsustainable, percentage of their baserunners (getting so much production from the [rallies] they are starting now).
To keep scoring so many runs they will need to start getting more men on base (have to begin to start some rallies) more often because they will start to drive in a lesser percentage.
Nice explanation. I found that a bit confusing as well.
The ones they’re creating now are based entirely on getting hits at the right time, which is generally unsustainable. The ones they need to be doing is just hitting consistently and good things happen, instead of relying on getting lucky with timing.
Quick question regarding pitch values for batters: is this runs above avg? Runs above avg per 100 pitches (of a given pitch type)? Just curious, wanted some clarification. Thanks.
CSJ,
I read that sentence as “start some more rallies”.. Which of course isn’t what was written, but I assume that’s what was meant…?
My initial reaction to this is a bit of sampling bias. It stands to reason that the 3,4, and 5 hitters are the ones coming to base most often with runners on base. It would be interesting to see the % of PA per line up spot for men on base, and attempt to remove any bias that is there.
“If the Rays want to keep playing baseball at their current level, they’re going to have to begin to start some rallies, rather than relying on getting so much production from the ones they’re creating now. ”
They don’t have to keep playing at their current level and they know they are not going to win 74% of their games the rest of the year. If they can win 59% of their remaining games, they’d be a 100 win team. So the better question would be is if their scoring were more in line with what their expected scoring would be if they weren’t so luckily clutch, would they be on pace to win 55% or more of their remaining games?
Dave, I have a question regarding your M’s:
Does the recent release of Byrnes and the more recent meltdown by Bradley mean Michael Saunders could be up soon? Or does the M’s “We heart Bradley” stance mean he won’t? He has a weak line in the minors right now but is on a modest 5-game hit streak, perhaps getting into gear.
Saunders has been called up.
If/when Zobrist turns it on, it will help make up for the regression in luck.
“Let’s hope”, said me, one of the many fantasy owners of Zobrist looking at that zero in HR column.
One other thing, they sure could be expected to continue to lead the league in runs allowed, but not at this pace, which would be about a 510 RA season.
Any place we can find quickly find wOBA with runners on base or in scoring position? Talking wOBA in one paragraph and OPS in the next two grates on me. Yes, this is nitpicking.
It could be that the Mike Saunders situation deserves it’s own post. The kid is a future stud both defensively and on the basepath. I for one was disappointed with the Byrnes pickup and hope his release brings Saunders a little closer to the Show.
This team must be clutch. Since they can’t afford RBI’s, they simply have to make each one count.
I did something like this at my blog on 4-30
http://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2010/04/explaining-rays-fast-start.html