April could not have gone much better for Colby Lewis, or his main promoter, Carson Cistulli. While other FanGrahps authors think his Cy Young chances range from 2% to skim, Carson continues to “pimp his dawg” (or whatever youthful slang Carson would use to describe his support). And for good reason: he sits just behind Brandon Morrow on the AL K/9 leaderboard with 10.47, and, although he has had some HR/FB luck, he still has a solid 3.60 xFIP.

Compared to his previous time in the MLB, he is getting tons more swings outside the zone and swinging strikes — not surprising given his huge strikeout rate. This increase seems due, at least partially, to increased slider use. In his pre-NPB days he threw it 7% of the time, but through five starts this year he is throwing it a hair below 30% (according to the BIS classifications as well as my classifications of the pitchf/x data). By linear weights of the BIS classifications it is his nastiest pitch, already worth 5 runs above average, and I see it getting swinging strikes 20% of the time. The average slider last year got a swinging strike 13% of the time. Overall, Lewis is getting just under 12% swinging strikes compared to a league average of 8%.

Lewis, like most RHPs, throws his slider more often to RHBs, 35% of the time compared to 25% fo the time to LHBs. Here are the locations of his sliders to RHBs, with contacted pitches and whiff pitches marked. Unlabeled pitches were taken.

When Lewis leaves his slider up-and-in it has not been missed, but when they are down-and-away he gets tons of swinging strikes. This is a common pattern with sliders, and Lewis has done a pretty good job of keeping his down-and-away.

Patrick Newman, also a FanGraphs author, has a great pitchf/x-like tool for the NPB and with it we can go back and look at Lewis’s starts there. You can find it here, choose any date and see his pitch type and velocity over the course of a game. A cursory look through this shows a healthy dose of sliders, so it seems to me that this increased use of sliders was something that he started in Japan. So far it has worked wonders for him back in MLB.

The Royals and Diamondbacks recently – and quietly – pulled off a rare prospect-for-prospect trade. The American League club sent reliever Carlos Rosa to Arizona for infielder Reynaldo Navarro. Rosa is the bigger name of the two based on his previous big league experience but Navarro is a former third round draft pick (2007) out of Puerto Rico.

The Diamondbacks club is desperate for relief pitching… any pitching, really. The club currently has the second worst ERA in the Majors (although its xFIP sits 18th, suggesting the club needs to address some other needs, as well). The right-hander was never able to crack the big league rotation with Kansas City and appeared in just nine MLB games over the past two seasons.

Rosa, 25, has shown good minor league numbers, including solid control (although it slipped in ’09 at triple-A); he was permanently moved to the bullpen in ’09. He has good stuff and his fastball sits around 94 mph. Unfortunately, he’s never been able to consistently command his secondary pitches (slider, change-up). He’s always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and has a career ground-ball rate around 50%. In ’09 at triple-A, Rosa posted a 3.44 FIP and a strikeout rate of 10.14 K/9 in 71.0 innings. So far in 2010, the right-hander has struggled with his control in just 12.1 innings.

In return, Arizona surrenders a talented – but very raw – middle infield prospect. Navarro, 20, was ranked by FanGraphs.com as the D-Backs’ seventh-best prospect entering 2010. Last year in low-A, Navarro hit .262/.308/.339 in 493 at-bats. He has some speed (12 steals in 16 tries) but his aggressive approach (5.5 BB%) makes him a poor top-of-the-order hitter. Currently in high-A ball, the shortstop is hitting .241/.307/.329 in 79 at-bats. Navarro made some defensive strides at shortstop in ’09 and has good range, so there is hope he’ll be able to remain at the position despite fringe arm strength.

Arizona certainly wins the trade if we grade it today; the club addresses a clear need and gets a solid arm for a raw player. However, Kansas City receives an interesting prospect to dream on. The club did a nice job of turning an excess arm into a potential steal. If the Royals’ player development staff can get Navarro to adjust his game plan to take advantage of his true strengths, the organization could end up as the winner of this deal. But it’s a big if.

Early season slumps are no fun for anyone. They’re the cause for mostly pointless questions. What’s wrong with the player? Is he hurt? Chances are, the answers to those two questions are nothing and no. A slump cares not for the calendar. It dispenses ill fortune at seemingly random intervals. We can more easily fall into the trap of overreacting to an early season slump, though, because it more definitively shows up in the numbers. There might be no better example of this right now than Hanley Ramirez.

After producing three straight MVP-quality seasons, Ramirez got off another quick start in 2010. He went 12 for his first 39 with three doubles and a homer, plus eight walks. Then came the slump. During his next 62 PA he managed just 12 hits, including only two extra base hits, and six walks. That brought his season triple slash down to .279/.386/.395. The OBP remained excellent, of course, but Ramirez struggled to make solid contact. Yet there was no reason to panic. The numbers might have looked bad, but that’s only because the slump reared its head in April.

We can look back to last season for a similar situation. From May 14 through May 29, Ramirez stepped to the plate 58 times and went 11 for 51 with five extra base hits, but just six walks. While he displayed a bit more power during last year’s slump, his average and OBP looked almost the same. The biggest difference between the two, though, is in the timing. On the day before he broke out of his slump last season his triple slash read .318/.399/.547, which is excellent by any standard. This year, because the slump happened before he could rack up numbers, his triple slash looked considerably worse.

An even better example of this effect comes from Johnny Damon. Last season he ended with a triple slash of .282/.365/.489, and was generally considered one of the most productive Yankees. Yet from September 3 through the end of the season, Damon hit just .215/.319/.278. That’s far worse than Hanley’s slump, yet it hardly made a dent in Damon’s final line. At close of play on September 2 Damon had a triple slash of .293/.373/.524. The former is clearly better, but because the slump came after Damon had accumulated excellent numbers through August it didn’t greatly affect his season totals.

The strangest part of Hanley’s numbers is how he altered them over the weekend. He went 6 for 9 with a double and three home runs. All the sudden, a .279/.386/.395 line turns into .316/.409/.526. That looks a lot more like Hanley. It took two stellar games after an early season slump to recover. One more and he’ll be right up where he was last year. The early season slump hurt, for sure, but it’s no more telling than a mid-July swoon. The only difference is how it shows up in the numbers.

Mark Teixeira has experienced a similar phenomenon in his first two Aprils as a Yankee. Last season he didn’t get off the interstate for good until May 13, the Yankees’ 33rd game of the season. Through that date he hit .202/.331/.430. The rest of the way he hit .313/.396/.596. This year he’s still on the interstate, though his luck might be changing. He ended April with a .136/.300/.259 line, and two games later is at .189/.336/.311. That’s not quite the boost Hanley got, but it’s a start. The Yankees have just played their 24th game, so if he goes 2 for 4 tonight, bringing his average over .200, and he never goes back, he’ll be a bit ahead of last season.

It’s natural to get concerned about a player’s production early in the season. We have been baseball-less for five to six months, and want to see our team’s best players help it win ball games. What’s sometimes tough to digest is that slumps can happen at any point in the season. If that comes early, it’s going to look much worse on paper. The good players will rebound, though. We’re already starting to see it from Ramirez and Teixeira.

A trio of things gleaned from the last seven days.

The Cubs won’t be releasing Alfonso Soriano any time soon.

A few weeks ago, there was a kind of bizarre series of articles written about whether the Cubs would be willing to eat the remainder of Soriano’s contract, releasing him outright. He was coming off a miserable 2009 season, and didn’t start off 2010 very well, but it still seemed a bit premature to write the guy off after one wasted season, when he had been worth +16.8 wins over the three prior years.

Soriano drove that point home this week, launching four home runs on his way to hitting .400/.500/1.100, leading the league with a .640 wOBA. He’s now at a .448 wOBA on the season, and while that obviously won’t continue, his rest-of-season ZiPS projection has him at .275/.334/.513, a well above average hitter. He might not be worth his contract, but there shouldn’t be a question over whether Soriano can still play baseball.

Cliff Lee’s abdominal strain doesn’t seem to be a problem.

Making his Seattle debut on Friday night, Lee was better than anyone could have expected after missing all of spring training and the first month of the season with an ab strain that helped torpedo earlier seasons in his career. His velocity was up across the board on all of his pitches over last year’s averages, which is not what you’d expect from a guy making his first start off the DL in April.

He pounded the strike zone, throwing first pitch strikes to three out of every four batters he faced. He showed off the big curveball and diving change-up that helped him shut down the Yankees in October, getting swinging strikes with both pitches. In short, he was exactly as good as you remember him being, and showed no ill effects from the lost time. Ab strains are known as injuries that can linger, but if you were concerned about Lee’s health for 2010, his performance on Friday night should have calmed most of those fears.

Clay Hensley has reinvented himself.

You may remember Hensley as a sinkerballing back-end starter, a guy who had some success with San Diego a few years ago by getting hitters to pound his two-seam fastball into the ground. He didn’t throw enough strikes or miss enough bats to make it work long term, however, so now, he’s ended up as a reliever with the Marlins. And he’s decided to throw the old gameplan out the window, with great success.

Last week, Hensley made two appearances out of the pen, facing 19 batters. He struck out 13 of them. He has now struck out 21 of the 55 batters he has faced this year, a whopping 14.92 K/9. His groundball rate has plummeted from 51 percent to 31 percent, as he’s now featuring his curveball and change-up much more frequently. In short, he’s a totally different pitcher than he was a few years ago, and the Marlins look to be the big beneficiary of his overhaul.

He won’t keep striking out 40 percent of the batters he’s faced, of course, but you can’t fluke your way into this kind of performance without there being a drastic underlying change. Hensley has rebooted his career, and his previous performances are almost entirely irrelevant to projecting his future. It will be interesting to see how he performs going forward, and whether the Marlins can replicate this success with other near wash-out pitchers. Whatever they did, it worked.

Franklin Morales, the Rockies closer, was brought in to protect a four run lead on Sunday. Normally, this type of move would lead to criticism of Rockies’ manager Jim Tracy for wasting Morales’s powerful arm on a low-leverage relief situation. However, this was not a normal outing for Morales. Tracy inserted Morales in the 8th inning with one out and runners on first and second.

Appearances SUCH as these are rare – typically the closer will not enter the game in the 8th to only face two batters, especially not with a four run lead and two runners on base. This isn’t exactly the optimal situation for a closer to appear in, either. The leverage index was 1.47 – certainly an important situation in the game, but below the roughly 1.80 LI that is typical among major league closers and well below the target of 2.30 LI set in The Book (page 225-226).

However, I feel this was a great move by Tracy. First of all, Morales hadn’t pitched since April 28th – he was working on 5 days rest, and likely needed to get some work in this game either way. This reason is why it’s unrealistic for every appearance by a closer or relief ace to come in a super high leverage situation. Tracy found a spot, without regard for the inning, that would prevent Morales from becoming rusty and still allow his best reliever to help his team.

Secondly, the Giants were at the number two spot in their order. John Bowker and Pablo Sandoval were the next two hitters due up. Bowker is projected as slightly above average by the updated ZiPS and as solidly above average by preseason CHONE. Sandoval is clearly the Giants’ best hitter, projected for wOBAs in the .380-.390 range. The quality of hitters effectively raises the leverage index, making the situation even more crucial to the flow of the game. Morales, a left-handed pitcher, also held the platoon advantage over Bowker. The issue is null against Sandoval, a switch hitter.

Morales successfully navigated through pinch-hitter Andres Torres and Sandoval, retiring both via the strikeout. Manny Corpas replaced Morales in the 9th with the game at a 0.39 LI and managed to finish the game, despite allowing a leadoff home run to Aubrey Huff. Many managers would have flipped the two roles, allowing the inferior reliever to face the superior hitters in the higher leverage situation simply due to the other pitcher being labeled the closer.

For those of us who hate the roles that the save statistic and risk-averse managers have pigeonholed relief aces into, this game by the Colorado Rockies and Jim Tracy was a breath of fresh air. This was an example of exactly how to correctly manage a bullpen, and other teams and managers should take note.

Before we delve into either the nitty or the gritty of tonight’s featured match-up, allow me to inform the reader that, had he read and obeyed this past Friday’s edition of One Night Only, he’d have been apprised of one of the killerest pitchers’ duels that is sure to occur this season. For it was this past Friday — a.k.a. CPL Fest 2010 — that Clifton Phifer Lee and Colby Phrigging Lewis pitched seven and nine innings of shutout baseball, respectively.

All of which is to say that One Night Only is here to help you. And also, Colby Lewis is a demigod.

[Note: Minor league numbers are courtesy of StatCorner. HR/BIA = Home Run per Ball in Air. MLB average for starters is 6.5%. MiLB average is I-don’t-know-what.]

Arizona at Houston | Monday, May 03 | 8:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
D-Backs: Cesar Valdez (R)
23.2 IP, 9.51 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, .328 BABIP, 56.2% GB, 12.0% HR/BIA, 3.75 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 5.22 (CHONE) 5.36 (ZiPS)

Astros: Felipe Paulino (R)
21.2 IP, 6.23 K/9, 5.82 BB/9, .323 BABIP, 44.9% GB, 0.0% HR/FB, 5.41 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.54 (FAN) 4.75 (CHONE) 5.00 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
If there’s one thing baseball nerds the world over like, it’s the rent-free paradise that is a mother’s basement. But if there’s one other thing baseball nerds like, it’s the Major League debut of an interesting prospect. In the case of tonight’s Arizona/Houston contest, the prospect in question is Mr. Cesar Valdez.

In addition to probably being the distant relative of the man who frigging invented coffee, Valdez was ranked by our man on the scene Marc Hulet as the eight-best prospect in the Arizona system. If you read Hulet’s analysis of Valdez, you read words that looked almost a hundred percent like these:

Valdez is a soft-tosser whose best pitch is a change-up. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high-80s. Even so, he’s had success in the minors, although he hit a speed bump in ‘09 at triple-A (5.18 FIP in 19 games). The right-hander began the year in double-A, where he allowed 63 hits in 64.1 innings and posted a 3.00 FIP. He has good control (2.81 BB/9 in triple-A) but his strikeout rates are modest, as he pitches to contact due to his lack of a true out-pitch. Valdez does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and should produce a ground-ball rate around 50%. Because of his fringe-stuff, he could end up as a middle reliever.

Of course the words “ground-ball rate” alone are enough to prick up the ears of the armchair prospect maven. That said, there’s very possibly a startling development in the Cesar Valdez Story. In a recent edition of his Diamondback Notes, The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro wrote the following:

Diamondbacks farm director Mike Berger watched Valdez pitch on April 19 and came away impressed.

“When I saw him, I saw a wipeout sinker,” Berger said. “He had plus sinker and a change-up that acted like a split. He mowed through Sacramento. That sinker had real bottom to it. He was getting lots of swings and misses.”

Valdez throws his sinker in the 89-91 mph range, up from the 86-88 mph he was throwing in the fall league.

That latter range is the one off of which Hulet was very likely working. But if Valdez really is touching 90 mph now, and if his sinker is actually functioning as a swing-and-miss pitch, then there’s the distinct possibility that Valdez could impress.

One Other Note
Cole Gillespie was recalled last week from Triple-A Reno. He’s not only another of those guys on Hulet’s Top 10 list, but he’s also a player about whom I, personally, was quite bullish last summer. (Be warned: that article is flipping long. Just go to the end to read about Gillespie.)

If I Had My Druthers
• Cesar Valdez would avoid making me look like a fool.
• Felipe Paulino would stop making me looks like a fool.
• I would stop making my own self look like a fool.

Episode Twenty-Six
In which the panel beats a near-dead horse.

Headlines
Ryan Howard: Ya Heard?!?
CPL Watch: Lee and Lewis Do Battle
Carlos Silva: What Gives?
… and other mind-bending illusions!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matthew Carruth, Full-Time Lover (of Words)

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Audio on the flip-flop.

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With one month of baseball in the books, it’s time to take a look at who you voted as the FanGraphs Stars of the Month!

The way these rankings are calculated (for the time being) is the sum of the percentage of total stars accumulated for each individual game. Onto the awards! (3 stars is the top spot.)

3 Stars – Jason Heyward: Baseball’s #1a/b prospect had a monstrous and timely first month. He even had a game where he accumulated over 1 full win in WPA. He was awarded 3-stars, five times.

2 Stars – Miguel Cabrera: Leading the month in WPA with 2.04 wins, Cabrera missed out on his third star by just a handful of votes. He was awarded 3-stars, a month-leading six times.

1 Star – Ubaldo Jimenez: In order to compete in votes with batters who play everyday, you really need to have a pretty special month as a pitcher. Ulbado did just that with 5 wins, a no-hitter, and a major league leading 0.79 ERA to take 3rd place in fan voting this month. In each of his five starts, he was awarded 3-stars.

That’s all for the very first FanGraphs Stars of the Month! Be sure to vote after each game is completed for who you think is the most deserving player of the game.

I wrote that I did not understand the Royals’ perspective on the Juan Cruz release. Afterward, I found myself reading a few threads on Royals Review to attempt and gain that point of view. One of the comments suggested Carlos Rosa was not long for the organization since the team chose to promote also-rans like Bruce Chen and Brad Thompson over the promising arm. What was then amusing is now prophetic. Marc Hulet will have more on that move tomorrow, but the Royals didn’t stop tinkering with their young players there. Oh no, yesterday they decided to demote Alex Gordon to the minors.

On one hand, I’d like to praise the Royals for the move. Gordon had not started in three days despite the Royals facing two righties in that span. On Saturday night, he entered the game as a pinch runner for Billy Butler. I could not believe the move then and I still cannot. Suspend the curiosity as to whom the Royals were playing in his place and focus on the idea that the Royals had designated their 26-year-old third baseman with a career .328 wOBA to pinch running duties.

Rather than burning Gordon’s service and developmental time on the bench in favor of such wunderkinds as Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz, the Royals decided Gordon would be best suited to get consistent playing time in the minors. That is logical. It’s even defensible if they really think Gordon is not their best option at third base (and completely ignore long-term gains) or if Gordon is suffering from an undisclosed ailment.

There’s no way of knowing the latter, but how about the former?

The Royals’ non-first base infield will now consist of Callaspo, Getz, Yuniesky Betancourt, Mike Aviles, and occasionally Willie Bloomquist. To his credit, Callaspo has hit the ball insanely well this season, entering Sunday’s contest batting .301/.347/.505 with a 0.88 BB/K ratio to boot. The same cannot be said for Gordon, who possesses a .299 wOBA with a .227 BABIP. That ranks him in the lower half of the Roayals’ lineup, but therein lays an issue: Gordon has hit well relative to the other infielders Betancourt (.298), Getz (.222), and Bloomquist (.193).

Betancourt is the Royals’ starter at shortstop, which excuses his weak efforts. Aviles is freshly back and can also play shortstop. That leaves Getz and, to a lesser degree, Bloomquist as the main opponents to Gordon’s roster spot. Getz is also 26 years old and a fringe starter with nice contact skills and some versatility. He’s absolutely a potentially useful bench player, but he’s not worth jettisoning Alex Gordon over and particularly not when Getz has an option remaining, too.

If it came down to a false dichotomy where it was Gordon or Getz, then 1) the Royals value some players on their roster far too much and 2) they made the wrong choice. Gordon may not be Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, or George Brett, but those players should not be the baseline comparison for Gordon. He’s produced 5 WAR in roughly 1,400 plate appearances. Butler has produced 3.4 WAR in 1,600 plate appearances. For some reason Butler is treated well while Gordon is the victim of a roster crunch.

Gordon has earned a spot on the Royals’ 25-man roster, but you know what, the Royals may not deserve him.

Episode Twenty-Five
In which the panel is only semi-late for the relevant date.

Headlines
Relievers and Entrance LI: Harbinger of Future Closers?
Mat Latos and Felipe Paulino: Are Disappointing You.
Trade Bait: Proposals from the Front Lines.
… and other searing proclamations!

Featuring
Brian Joura, Staten Island Representin’
Eno Sarris, Some Other Place Representin’

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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