Earlier this week, Steve Phillips went on Mike Francesca’s radio show and said that the Washington Nationals should consider trading Stephen Strasburg for Roy Oswalt. Predictably, every person who heard him say this did an instant face palm, and Phillips was roundly mocked for his comments.

I passed on writing about the comments for one main reason – I’ve done a decent amount of radio interviews over the last few years, and I know that sometimes, when asked a question on the air, you say stuff that you regret later. You don’t have time for measured responses or any kind of research, so if you haven’t put a lot of thought into a subject, you can say something that you soon discover is kind of foolish. It’s part of the medium, and so I’m generally willing to give people a pass for things they say in live broadcasts.

Given a few days to reflect on the comments and think the situation over, Phillips did what any reasonable human being would do and realized that his statement was utterly, entirely insane. Wait, what? He didn’t? Instead, he recorded a video where he actually stood his ground and reasserted the same point?

Seriously. You can watch it here.

The crux of the argument – prospects are risky, proven aces are rare, and when you have a chance to win, you have to go for it. On their own, all three points have some merit. Strasburg comes with a lot of risk. Oswalt is one of the better pitchers in baseball. There is a big financial payoff for doing well in October. (For the purposes of this post, we’ll ignore the massive difference in costs that both players would incur, as Phillips does, and simply evaluate this from a talent perspective – once you include contracts, the entire thing becomes laughable, and no one needs it laid out how the differences in salary and team control make this one of the dumbest ideas ever.)

However, this line of thought shows the flaw of analysis by cliche, rather than by measuring the value of individual assets. If you follow Phillips path to its logical extent, you could justify trading nearly any prospect for almost any major league player, as long as your team was in contention. Any marginal upgrade for a winning team could justify a complete pillaging of a team’s farm system, because, after all, “prospects get a GM fired.”

In reality, Phillips is simply displaying an extreme reliance on one of the great myths of baseball – the reliability of the proven veteran. His assertion that you know what you’re going to get from Oswalt, while Strasburg is just a big riddle wrapped inside a mystery, is the kind of thinking that has been chased out of baseball over the last 10 years.

It’s not that prospects aren’t risky. They are. However, major league players, especially pitchers, are almost equally risky. Just take a look at how last year’s aces are performing so far this year. Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Dan Haren, and Javier Vazquez were among the best pitchers in the game in 2009, and have all struggled (to different degrees) so far this year. Jake Peavy, proven veteran ace, has been a disaster for the White Sox. Ask the Red Sox how their investments in Josh Beckett and John Lackey have gone this year, or query the Braves about Derek Lowe. And we’re not even talking about the guys who have gone down to injuries and aren’t even pitching right now.

Yes, it’s just two months, and we should expect each of those pitchers to perform better going forward than they have so far in 2010. However, we cannot ignore the significant variance in pitcher performance, especially in just a few month’s worth of starts, no matter how long and impressive the resume of a pitcher may be. Roy Oswalt may pitch well for his new team, but it’s nothing close to a sure thing, and he’s not even that much more of a sure thing than the kid who has never pitched in the majors.

This is the mistake that bad general managers have been making for years – significantly overestimating the reliability of veteran players. It’s the kind of misunderstanding of projected player performance that Phillips mastered as a GM. Steve thinks prospects gets GMs fired, but in reality, its misinformed opinions about how to build a baseball team, much like the one he’s espousing right now.

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“He’s a fucking asshole.”
Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, on umpire Joe West

It might be the highest-profile balk call in years: after Joe West rung up Mark Buehrle for two balks and ejected Buehrle and Guillen shortly thereafter for protesting the call yesterday, Major League Baseball announced that they were investigating the incident. Given the personalities involved, an explosion was almost inevitable: Ozzie Guillen is perhaps the most combustible and combative manager in the game (Chris Jaffe has called him the modern Billy Martin), and “Cowboy” Joe West is one of the most controversial umpires in baseball. Even the photo on West’s Wikipedia page shows him ejecting Guillen, all the way back in 2007.

Joe West likes the nickname “Cowboy” — it’s the name he uses on his website, where he sells his country music CDs (“Blue Cowboy” and “Diamond Dreams”) — but detractors often argue that it describes his on-field demeanor as well. And ejections aren’t the only thing he’s famous for. Back in 1990, West bodyslammed pitcher Dennis Cook to the ground; NL president Bill White was prepared to suspend West (back in the days when each league had its own president and crew of umpires), but Commissioner Fay Vincent intervened. As Chicago Sun-Times columnist Mark Potash writes,

The guy has a habit of creating and/or exacerbating situations like this. His dismissive hand gestures, his body language, his smirk, and his attitude are more incendiary than any of Guillen’s profanity. He doesn’t get any respect because he doesn’t give any.

But the more salient problem may be with the balk rule itself. What is a balk? In the official rulebook, there’s a dizzying array of situations which may prompt a balk to be called, along with the following comment:

“Umpires should bear in mind that the purpose of the balk rule is to prevent the pitcher from deliberately deceiving the base runner. If there is doubt in the umpire’s mind, the ‘intent’ of the pitcher should govern.”

Much of the game, of course, is designed to deliberately deceive, from the pitching motion of many lefthanders, to the fake-to-third-throw-to-first play, to feints by the fielders to fake as though they’re heading to second base for a throw. The balk call is intended as a corrective to prevent certain illegal actions by the pitcher, but it’s not clear that any of the motions it prohibits are any more successful in fooling baserunners than the motions it permits — and moreover, it’s not clear that the motions it prohibits are all that distinguishable from the motions it permits. What was different about Buehrle’s move to first on Wednesday, compared to this game in 2008, when he successfully picked off Franklin Gutierrez?

Even after watching and rewatching tape, few balk calls or noncalls are ever indisputable. (As blogger Mac Thomason has written, “Nearly all balks are randomly called by the umpires as far as I can tell, with the odd exception of a pitcher who falls down or drops the ball or something like that.”) Still, they’re an exceedingly minor part of the game. This year, there have only been 48 balks called all year in 1398 games played, and over the past four years, the numbers have been fairly steady: 138 balks in 2009, 153 in 2008, 139 in 2007, 145 in 2006. So even though they seem arbitrary, the rate at which they’re called has been fairly constant. Once this blows over, we’ll all go back to not thinking about balks much, because they’re so steadfastly rare. But that doesn’t make the rule any more sensible, or its enforcement any less prone to error.

“Cowboy” Joe West drew attention to himself on Wednesday, as he so often does. But he really should have drawn attention to the balk rule itself. This is one rule that could go out of the rulebook with no tears shed.

Since 2003, another 30 shortstops have been taken in the first round of the June Amateur Draft. This includes a guy who might become the best college shortstop drafted in 25 years, and the biggest draft bust the position has even seen. You have Aaron Hill, Adam Jones, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Cliff Pennington and Gordon Beckham who have already established themselves as big league regulars. There is C.J. Henry, who left baseball to play with his brother on the Kansas basketball team. And Brandon Wood, perhaps the most frustrating of all.

Today, I won’t be talking about those 10 players above. I also won’t talk about Emmanuel Burriss or Omar Quintanilla, both of whom are injured and not particularly exciting. Justin Jackson is injured and moderately exciting, but we’ll wait to talk about him once he’s healthy. That leaves us 17 players that run the gamut on the prospect scale to talk about today.

The Most Likely Busts

Since we agreed not to talk about Matt Bush, this is heretofore known as the Preston Mattingly group, as the former Dodgers supplemental first rounder has never really done anything as a professional that is prospect worthy. It’s premature to think of Ryan Dent as a bust, as he did have a .350 OBP in Low-A as a 20-year-old, but I don’t have super-high hopes for the former 62nd overall pick. I have more confidence calling Anthony Hewitt a bust, as he now has a 22/188 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 545 career plate appearances. And a .625 OPS.

Trevor Plouffe continues to get better and better, but if we stick from what we learned yesterday, I don’t see him ever becoming a viable Major League regular. His OBP in Low-A was .300, and his AA career was just .272/.326/.410. I feel the same way about Pete Kozma, who really doesn’t have a skill worth praising. The bench is his only big league future.

The It’s Not Looking Great Group

It feels like Chris Nelson and Tyler Greene have been around forever, teasing people with their abilities. We thought Nelson was a prospect in 2004 and 2007, he looked like a bust in 2005, 2006 and 2008. He’s now battled health problems, but has looked okay in 2009 and 2010. Probably a bench player, but the Rockies have a not-horrible back up plan if Tulowitzki were to go down. Greene will never make enough contact to be a viable regular, but he could be a really good bench player considering his glove, his baserunning and his power.

I am cautiously pessimistic about Ryan Flaherty, especially after he fell flat on his face with an Opening Day assignment to Double-A. The Cubs probably should have left him in Tennessee to figure things out, as he is clearly good enough to handle the Florida State League (.333/.402/.514). He’s the best member of this tier, but I also don’t get a great feeling. From talking with people, he seems like a prospect whose whole is less than the sum of his parts.

Finally, we have the 2009 draftees that are struggling mightily out of the gate: the Astros Jiovanni Mier and Diamondbacks prospect Chris Owings. Mier has been a complete mess in the Sally League, .210/.308/.263, but he’s a really good athlete that’s walking enough (11 BB%) to keep me from closing the book. Owings batting line of .291/.309/.419 in the Midwest League is actually pretty good, but his 4-36 walk-to-strikeout rate is not.

The Prospects

In my first draft of this piece, I contemplated ranking Reese Havens as a blue-chip guy. He was close. But the quantity of injury problems, many to his back, have me worried. The Mets now know he isn’t really a shortstop, but I think he can be a really solid second baseman down the line. Adrian Cardenas shares the left-handed, second base profile, but doesn’t share much else with Havens. Ability to make contact is his best skill, and maybe his only one.

Drew Cumberland is a long-time favorite of mine, and enjoying a fantastic breakout season in the Cal League. But it’s not really a breakout as much as a healthy season, as Cumberland is just doing everything he’s done before (with a little more power). He makes contact, he takes his walks, he steals bases, has enough pop, and he sticks up the middle. He’s a good prospect. In the same league, and less impressively so, is Grant Green. It’s far too early to make a call on Green, but he’s striking out too much, and not hitting for the power I thought he would. He’s holding onto prospect status for dear life at this point.

The Blue Chippers

Mike Moustakas really took a hit in prospect circles when he hit just .250/.297/.421 last year in the Carolina League. But, yesterday’s article taught us that High-A has historically been the least important level in a first round shortstop’s development, and really, Moustakas’ .272/.337/.468 line at 19 in the Midwest League the year prior was pretty good. I saw him take batting practice that year, and it was one of the most impressive shows I’ve seen a hitter put on at that level. He’s now hitting .377/.463/.770 in 150 plate appearances at Double-A, and I have a lot of faith that he’ll be a star in Kansas City.

There have been few 2009 draft picks that have been as impressive as Nick Franklin, the 27th overall pick for the Seattle Mariners. We know that the best shortstop picks have established themselves right off the bat, and Franklin seems to be doing that at age 19 in the Midwest League. He now has 23 extra-base hits in 195 plate appearances, and is hitting .317/.361/.567 overall. He’s splitting time between shortstop and second, but right now, and draws praise for his athleticism.

If I’m telling you we never should have given up on Mike Moustakas, I’m not ready to turn my back on Tim Beckham, either. A recent hot streak has really helped matters, but still, he now has a .706 OPS, and his career minor league batting line is .258/.319/.383. The walks are up, the power looks up, but Beckham is a very mistake-prone player. I’m waiting until Double-A to begin to make declaritive statements about the Rays passing on Buster Posey for Beckham, but just know that I’m tempted.

I’ll close things out with a quick ranking today: Moustakas, Franklin, Beckham, Cumberland, Havens, Cardenas, Green, Flaherty. Tomorrow, I’ll be back with the 2010 draft’s shortstop prospects.

Quick quiz: What 2007 No. 1 draft pick has a career .331 average, but is never, ever talked about as a serious prospect?

The answer is Minnesota’s Ben Revere, an outfielder who was taken 28th overall out of a Kentucky high school. He entered 2010 with a triple-slash line of .331/.396/.430 in 997 at-bats. The speedy outfielder, now 22, has moved slowly up the system’s ladder, one step at a time through rookie ball, low-A, high-A and now double-A.

This season, he’s been unfazed by the more advanced pitching in double-A and is hitting .313/.387/.380 in 163 at-bats. Revere is not a power hitter, as witnessed by his .067 ISO rate. And he’ll never be a power hitter. Luckily, he seems to realize what his strengths are, and he plays to those attributes.

Revere stole 40+ bases in both ’08 and ’09. So far this season, he’s nabbed 17 bags in 21 tries. He doesn’t have a huge walk rate because he makes good, consistent contact, but he has also struck out just four more times than he’s walked in his career. In ’10, he has 17 walks and 16 strikeouts. A left-handed hitter, Revere is not a player you have to worry about platooning. His career OPS versus southpaws is .866 (.363 batting average) and it’s .800 (.324 average) against right-handed pitchers.

Although he’s never been promoted in-season by the Twins, this could be the year that the organization decides to change things up. Revere is close to being MLB-ready and is hitting .415/.489/.537 with six steals in his last 10 games. The organization lacks depth in the outfield at triple-A and if the MLB club needs an injury replacement for the second half of the season, Revere might be the type of player that can provide a playoff-seeking club a real boost.

Revere also provides an element that the big league club could benefit from: speed. Aside from fellow outfielder Denard Span, who has 13 steals, no other Twin has more than four (Orlando Hudson). Neither Delmon Young (.324 wOBA) nor Jason Kubel (.304) has really pulled his weight this season. If placed in the ninth spot in the lineup, Revere should be able to get on base at a clip of .350-.370, leaving him in a good position to be driven in by Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and/or Michael Cuddyer. Mr. Young could take his .315 on-base percentage to the bench.

Ultimately, Revere is probably not a difference-making player all on his own, despite his lofty draft status. However, he’s proven over the past four seasons that he has skills to be an important cog in a playoff-worthy club.

If not for Ubaldo Jimenez’s continued dominance, Jaime Garcia might be the big story of the National League right now. Garcia pitched six shutout innings last night, holding the Padres to just three hits. Yet on the front page of most major baseball outlets you probably saw a picture of Jimenez, and rightly so . He not only took his shutout two innings further than Garcia, but he also did it against the NL’s top offense. That might overshadow Garcia’s performance, but that doesn’t mean Garcia hasn’t been doing amazing things with the baseball this season.

Garcia, a twenty-second round pick in 2005, made his mark during his 2006 debut. That earned him the No. 2 spot on Baseball America’s Top 30 Cardinals prospects, and No. 70 on the overall Top 100 Prospects list. The Cardinals promoted him to AA that year, and he achieved quality results, a 3.75 ERA in 103.1 innings, though his FIP was up around 4.13. His season ended in July when he sprained an elbow ligament, but the injury did not require surgery and Garcia returned healthy for spring training. He had dropped to fourth on the Cardinals prospect list and off the Top 100.

The Cardinals did call him up during the 2008 season, though he started just one game, a five-inning, three-run performance against the Padres. In his other nine performances he pitched in relief, and while he had a few good runs he got rocked in a couple of outings, including his final one on August 26, in which he allowed three runs in an inning of mop-up work. Just a few days later the Cardinals announced that he would undergo Tommy John surgery. That kept him off the Cardinals top prospects list for 2009. That might have been a blessing, though.

During his recovery, Garcia added his top secondary pitch, a slider, or cutter, of sorts that clocks about 5 mph slower than his fastball. He used it successfully in his short rehab stint, which included a six-inning shutout performance in the Pacific Coast League playoffs. Impressed by his arsenal — which also includes a curveball “that’s a genuine swing-and-miss pitch” — Baseball America rated Garcia the Cardinals’ No. 2 prospect in 2010, projecting him as a No. 3 starter. So far, he’s been much more than that.

In their 2007 assessment of Garcia, Baseball America commented that he, “leans on his curveball too much at times and needs to use his changeup more often.” Garcia has made that adjustment in 2010, using his curveball just 11.2 percent of the time, while throwing the changeup 12 percent. The addition of the cutter has helped in this regard as well, as Garcia can use in place of both his curveball and fastball. He has thrown just 51.5 percent four-seamers this year, leaning on his cutter for 25.2 percent of his pitches.

While his 1.14 ERA contains a large amount of luck, Garcia has still shown the makings of a quality starter, perhaps exceeding the No. 3 expectations Baseball America pegged on him. He has struck out 7.32 per nine, a bit above league average, and has kept the ball on the ground for 59.7 percent of balls in play. Only Tim Hudson ranks better among NL starters. He has also done a good job of inducing poor contact, probably an effect of the cutter. Hitters have just a 16.1 percent line drive rate, which has helped keep his BABIP at a low .255. This poor contact tendency has also kept the ball inside the park, as only one of his 35 outfield flies has resulted in a home run.

During his time in professional baseball Garcia has earned a reputation as an unflappable performer. Opponents just don’t shake him. That shows in his numbers this season. NL batters have hit .224/.457/.364 with the count full this season, but Garcia has outperformed that, holding hitters to a .167/.464/.167 line. He also bears down when his opponent puts runners in scoring position. In 59 such situations he has allowed just seven hits, and only one for extra bases. He performs even better when those runners stand in scoring position with two outs, allowing hits in just three of 32 attempts. Opponents are just 4 for 27, with no extra base hits, against him in high leverage spots.

Garcia has yet to face any opponent for the second time, so his luck could take a turn later in the season. Chances are his BABIP won’t stay at its current rate, and once they get a good scouting read on him opponents might make better contact and raise that low line drive rate. Perhaps, too, hitters will stop chasing so many pitches outside the zone. Garcia has thrown 56.4 percent of his pitches outside the zone, but opponents have chased them an above-average 29.7 percent. His strand rate, 87.9 percent, is the third highest in the NL, trailing just Jimenez and a guy whose luck might be running out. Once these numbers come back to earth Garcia’s ERA should look mortal.

If there is one blemish on Garcia’s ledger, it’s his control. He experienced rising walk rates as he ascended through the minor leagues, and this year has walked 24 in 55.1 innings, 3.90 per nine. He has been able to mask this tendency with his strikeouts and groundballs, but as his luck starts to turn he’ll need better control in order to offset the changing results. He also needs better control in order to pitch deeper into games. He has pitched into the seventh just three times this season, and has only finished that inning twice. Then again, that might be more on the offense than on him. The Cardinals haven’t provided league average run support while Garcia is in the game, which forces Tony LaRussa to pinch hit for him. In just two of his nine starts has he thrown 100 pitches.

In his first nine starts Jaime Garcia has done more than the Cardinals could have possibly expected. He won’t maintain his 1.14 ERA throughout the season, but if he makes a few more adjustments he can keep it under control as hitters get a better read off him. But as long as he keeps the ball on the ground and keeps striking out hitters at an above-average clip, he should be a mainstay in the Cardinals rotation for years to come.

Last night, I headed over to Zebulon, North Carolina to take in a game between the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx and Carolina Mudcats. West Tenn features a significant amount of Seattle’s better prospects, including Dustin Ackley, Carlos Triunfel, Alex Liddi, and last night’s starter, Mauricio Robles. Carolina features… not much at all. There were quite a few jokes made about the Mudcats roster over the night, as the Reds Double-A team doesn’t have much talent this year.

However, in the eighth inning, they brought in someone of interest. Baseball America’s Conor Glassey, sitting to my left, informed me that the kid warming up in the bullpen had some serious arm strength from the left side. After Ruben Medina walked the world, the Mudcats brought in Philippe Valiquette to get the final out of the eighth. He didn’t disappoint.

A slender 6’0 lefty, Valiquette came in and started firing 96 and 97 MPH fastballs with relative ease. He got Triunfel to ground out to the second baseman, and the inning was over. Valiquette came back out for the ninth to go through the middle of West Tennessee’s order. This time, he decided not to mess around, and brought out the big guns.

You don’t see legit 100s on the radar gun from the left side very often. It was, to the say the least, an impressive fastball.

The command wasn’t great and the secondary stuff was borderline awful, but the fastball was enough for him to make hitters look foolish. Given the velocity, I figured when I checked his career minor league line upon returning home that he’d be running big strikeout totals at the least. To my surprise, he’s only racked up 245 strikeouts in 311 innings pitched over six minor league seasons, and his second trip through Double-A isn’t going very well this year. The walks aren’t a big surprise, but I was shocked to see that he’s been this ineffective in the low minors with a huge fastball.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about Sergio Santos and how easy his conversion to pitching has been. Consider Valiquette to be the counter point to my argument that relieving is pretty easy if you have a good arm. There’s no doubting the arm strength that he brings to the mound, but to date, he hasn’t converted it into getting hitters out.

Just 23, there’s still plenty of time for him to figure out how to command his fastball and develop a second pitch to complement it and give hitters a different look, but so far, he’s just all velocity and nothing else.

Once a cherished prospect, ranked among the top 10 farm talents in the game by Baseball America before the 2002 season, Carlos Pena took a circuitous route to major league success. The 10th overall pick in the 1998 draft drifted through the Texas, Oakland and Detroit organizations, putting up full-season wOBAs in the .330s and .340’s — hardly standout marks for a first baseman.

Released by the Tigers in March of 2006, Pena toiled at the Triple-A level for the Yankees (who cut him loose in August) and the Red Sox. He inked a one-year, $800,000 minor league deal with Tampa Bay for 2007 and proceeded to post a .430 wOBA that season. The Rays rewarded Pena with a three-year, $24.125 million deal, buying out two years of arbitration and his first free agent year . Pena put up a .374 wOBA in both 2008 and 2009, but the free-agent-to-be is hardly having an ideal walk year in 2010.

In 189 plate appearances, the 32-year-old is batting .189/.307/.377, with a .304 wOBA. While his walk rate is still solid at 13.8 percent, it’s down from his 15-16 percent marks from 2007-2009. Pena had Isolated Power figures of .345 in ’07, .247 in ’08 and .310 in ’09, but his ISO sits at a comparatively mild .189 this year. To this point, he has been sub-replacement-level, with -0.1 WAR. What gives?

Over the ’07 to ’09 seasons, Pena showed quality plate discipline. He swung at a lower-than-average rate of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone — 19.8 percent in ’07, 20.8 in ’08 and 23.6 in ’09, while the MLB average was around 25 percent those years. Pena let it rip on in-zone pitches, with Z-Swing marks well above the big league norm, but he rarely got himself out on junk pitches off the plate.

This year, however, Pena has hacked at 31.5 percent of out-of-zone offerings (27.7 percent MLB average in 2010). It could be a coincidence, but perhaps pitchers have taken note of his uncharacteristic eagerness to chase. Opponents have put just 41.8 percent of pitches in the strike zone against Pena, compared to the 49-51 percent range from ’07 to ’09 and the 47.6 percent MLB average this season.

He’s making more (presumably weak) contact with those pitches out of the zone — 55.7 percent, compared to 42.5 percent in ’07, 48.7 percent in ’08 and 39.6 percent in ’09. The result of Pena’s expanded zone and higher out-of-zone contact rate is more 0-and-1 counts or balls put in play on the first pitch: his first pitch strike percentage is 64.6, way above his marks of 51.8 percent in ’07, 58.2 in ’08 and 55.1 in ’09 (58 percent MLB average).

Normally a prodigious pull hitter, Pena hasn’t lashed the ball to the right side with the same gusto this year:

He’s hitting fewer line drives, grounding out far more than usual and popping the ball up at a rate well above the big league average. The result is a .373 wOBA on pulled pitches, a far cry from his previous work and 26 points below the average for lefty batters.

Odds are, Carlos Pena won’t continue to hold a .214 BABIP and a wOBA that might get him confused with Ramiro Pena — Carlos’ rest-of-season ZiPS projection is .231/.354/.494, with a .371 wOBA. But clearly, he’s not helping his free agent stock right now. If Pena wants to get paid, he needs to show more restraint and start roping the ball to the pull field once again.

Here at FanGraphs, we describe a relief outing as a “meltdown” if it results in a -0.06 WPA or worse. By that definition, Ryan Perry’s -.819 WPA performance in the 8th inning of last night’s Tigers-Mariners game was certainly a meltdown. Perry entered with the score 4-1, and when he left the Mariners had a 5-4 lead they would not relinquish.

Perry only recorded one out in the inning, and he allowed five hits, including a home run, and allowed four earned runs. According to Pitch F/X data, nothing looked off with Perry’s stuff. He was simply the victim of poor location and some hard hit baseballs.

The inning started with an incredibly patient at bat from Franklin Gutierrez. The stellar center fielder took five straight pitches on or around the outside corner before singling on a belt high fastball right down the middle.

After striking out Milton Bradley, Perry was set to face a string of right handed batters in Mike Sweeney, Jose Lopez, and if necessary Rob Johnson and Josh Wilson. Given that only Sweeney had an above average ZiPS RoS projection entering the game and the other three hitters had projected wOBAs below .305, the stage appeared to be set for Perry to work his way around a leadoff single.

Of course, that’s not what happened. The first pitch to Mike Sweeney was a slider that didn’t do much and stayed right in the middle of the strike zone. Sweeney crushed it for his 6th home run of the season. The Tigers still held the lead at that point, at 4-3. With one out already recorded and three weak, same-handed hitters coming up, Perry was set up for success.

Instead, the Mariners quickly began another rally. Jose Lopez singled on another miss over the heart of the plate. Still, at this point the Tigers’ win probability was at 28.9%, and still the matchups were very favorable to Perry. Rob Johnson battled against Perry, bringing the count to full, and hitting another belt-high fastball – this time, closer to the inside corner, although pitch 4 missed badly and was fouled off.

Johnson’s double moved Jose Lopez to third base. The Tigers still held the lead, but the Mariners’ win probability was finally bumped over 50% to 53.4%. It was improbably that Perry and the Tigers would get out of the jam, but odds were good that they would limit the damage to only one run and keep the game at least tied. Such dreams were smashed when shortstop Josh Wilson singled on another ball down the middle. This pitch was down below the strike zone, but Wilson still managed to line it to left field for what would turn out to be the game-winning RBIs.

Perry has good stuff – his fastball averages over 95 MPH and he also uses a slider and a changeup (sparingly). Even at 95+, though, location is key against major league hitters. Ryan Perry repeatedly missed down the middle of the strike zone on Wednesday night, and as a result Mariners hitters – including a weak string of right handers – hammered him for line drive hit after line drive hit.

This has to be one of the more painful losses of the Tigers season, as they had a 94.1% chance of winning at one point and an 88.3% chance of winning when Perry’s inning began. At least they’re squarely in contention, only one game back of Minnesota. And at least they have Justin Verlander.

Episode Thirty-One
In which the panel dies of not surprise.

Headlines
Livan Hernandez: What’s Luck Got to Do with It?
The Game Preview, Form and Theory Of
Interleague Schminterleague (Joe Pawl Remix)
… and other no-good deeds!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matthew Carruth, Ace of Database
Joe Pawlikowski, The Polish Double-U

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