Archive for June, 2010

Jason Vargas = Jarrod Washburn?

Before the wheels fell off following a July trade to Detroit, Jarrod Washburn thrived with the Seattle Mariners in 2009. It was the perfect blend of pitcher, park, defense and luck — a left-hander, making his home starts in a venue that saps righty power, behind the best glove men in the game while getting auspicious bounces in tight situations to boot. You couldn’t conjure up a more perfect scenario for a pitcher of Washburn’s ilk.

This season, Washburn’s sitting on the sidelines. Last we heard, the 35-year-old said he was quite content in his retirement. But you’d have to forgive Mariners fans who thought that Washburn was still suiting up for the M’s. Jason Vargas‘ 2010 is shockingly similar to Washburn’s tenure with Seattle last year.

The superficial comparisons are obvious. Both are lefties a smidge over six foot tall. Neither guy cracks 90 MPH on the radar gun under the best of circumstances — Vargas is sitting 86-87 MPH with his fastball this season, while Washburn ramped it up to 88 MPH in ’09. Each features a pair of breaking pitches and a changeup to compensate for the lack of zip, with Washburn also featuring a cutter. But the parallels run much deeper. Take a look at Washburn’s numbers with the Mariners last year and Vargas’ stats so far this season:

We’re not at the same point in the season yet, but the 2010 version of Vargas is a Washburn ’09 clone. Few whiffs, walks, or ground balls. A low BABIP, high rate of stranding runners on base, and a home run per fly ball rate well below the big league average. The result? A sparkling ERA juxtaposed with middling peripheral stats.

There might not be a better location than Seattle for this type of pitcher, though. According to the Bill James Handbook, Safeco Field suppressed run-scoring six percent and home runs seven percent compared to a neutral park over the 2007 to 2009 seasons. Safeco’s particularly rough on righty power, with a 91 HR park factor. Further, the Mariners’ home park had a 96 HR/FB park factor from 2006 to 2009.

Defense plays a role, too. In 2009, Seattle led the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved. While the M’s aren’t setting the gold standard with the leather this season, the club is still playing above-average D — 12th in UZR and seventh in DRS. The Washburn/Vargas-type pitcher puts the ball in play often, so being backed by swift defenders clearly helps.

Like Washburn, Vargas is a low-K, fly ball-centric starter whose deficiencies are masked quite well by his home park and a group of strong defensive players. Fly balls, while more damaging overall, do have a lower BABIP than grounders, and Vargas induces plenty of BABIP-killing infield flies (13.8 IF/FB% for his career, while the MLB average is slightly over seven). So maybe his BABIP won’t quite rise to the .300 range.

Even if that’s the case, Vargas, much like Washburn last year, is primed for a good deal of regression. It’s highly unlikely that he continues to allow hits on balls in play or homers on fly balls at such a low clip, or strand so many runners on base. The 27-year-old is suited well for his environment, and if there’s anywhere he can succeed in the AL, it’s with the Mariners. But Vargas is more middle-of-the-road starter than breakout performer.


Reviewing the ’09 First Round, part 2

Well, the 2010 draft is in the books and teams are now madly trying to sign their top picks. To celebrate the influx of new talent, we’re looking back to the first round of the ’09 draft and checking in on each player’s progress to date. Yesterday, we looked at the first 16 players chosen in the draft. Today, we’ll look at the final 16.

17. A.J. Pollock, OF, Arizona
Pollock jumped out to a solid start in his pro debut in ’09 at low-A ball but he’s projected to miss all of 2010 after hurting himself in spring training.

18. Chad James, LHP, Florida
James isn’t as flashy as some of the other ’09 prep pitchers, but he’s looked good in low-A ball. He has 42 strikeouts in 38.2 innings and has given up just 34 hits. Right-handers are hitting just .226 against him.

19. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis
Miller has performed well in low-A with a limited pitch count, but he’s also been pretty inconsistent. He needs to be more efficient with his pitches, but he’s also a strikeout pitcher so those totals will always be high. Miller started out the year with very good ground-ball rates but he’s become more of a fly-ball pitcher lately.

20. Chad Jenkins, RHP, Toronto
The Jays organization has a new go-slow approach with its young players so Jenkins, 22, began the 2010 season in low-A. His performance has been somewhat underwhelming so far with 87 hits allowed in 79.1 innings of work. He also has 63 strikeouts. On the plus side, he’s issued just 13 walks and has a solid ground-ball rate (55%).

21. Jiovanni Mier, SS, Houston
Mier performed well in his debut in the Appy league in 2009, but he has slumped terribly this season and is batting just .199/.297/.252 in 226 at-bats. After hitting seven homers in his debut, he has yet to go deep in 2010. He’s also stolen just five bases in eight tries, after posting double-digit steals in ’09.

22. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota
Gibson began the year by dominating high-A ball with 33 hits and 12 walks allowed in 43.1 innings. The right-hander also had 40 strikeouts and a ground-ball rate of 68%. Moved up to double-A, his worm-burning rate is still good at 55%, but his strikeout rate has dropped and he’s given up 45 hits and 11 walks in 41.0 innings. Those are still good numbers, but they’re not quite as eye-popping.

23. Jared Mitchell, OF, Chicago AL
Like Pollock, Mitchell injured himself this spring and will miss the entire regular season.

24. Randal Grichuk, OF, Los Angeles AL
Earlier this season, Grichuk was having trouble living up to his solid debut numbers for ’09. He was hitting just .229/.280/.431 in 109 at-bats. Grichuk was then placed onto the disabled list in early May and hasn’t played since. He hurt his thumb and is expected back in early August.

25. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles, AL
Trout has been one of the breakout players from the ’09 draft. He hit .360/.418/.506 in his debut in ’09 and is currently hitting .360/.440/.546 with 33 steals in 39 tries. The speedy outfielder also projects to have solid power. Take his career batting average with a grain of salt, though. His career BABIP is over .400 and should come down over time despite his good speed.

26. Eric Arnett, RHP, Milwaukee
Arnett has been a disappointment to this point. The 22-year-old pitcher has been demoted to short-season ball after allowing 70 hits and 20 walks in 56.1 low-A innings. Right-handers were hitting .340 against him.

27. Nick Franklin, SS, Seattle
Franklin has been a surprise star in low-A ball this season. The teenage shortstop is currently showing above-average power with 13 homers in 255 at-bats and he has a triple-slash line of .306/.350/.553. The switch-hitter also has double-digit steals and looks like a potential 20-20 player. On the downside, he has just 17 walks compared to 50 strikeouts.

28. Reymond Fuentes, OF, Boston
Fuentes has a respectable triple-slash line of .274/.322/.400 and 25 steals in 26 tries but he’s going to have to tweak his aggressive approach at the plate. The speedster has walked nine times with 54 strikeouts, which is not going to cut it for a lead-off hitter.

29. Slade Heathcott, OF, New York AL
Heathcott, 19, began the year in extended spring training but headed to low-A ball in June. He’s currently hitting .327/.397/.418 in 55 at-bats.

30. LeVon Washington, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay
Washington failed to sign with Tampa Bay and went to junior college, after failing to meet the academic requirements to attend a four-year college. The speedy player had an OK offensive season in junior college and was picked up by Cleveland in the second round of the ’10 draft.

31. Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago NL
After hitting .318 in his debut in ’09, Jackson has continued to perform well in ’10. At high-A ball, he currently has a triple-slash line of .292/.404/.451 in 233 at-bats. He has an impressive walk total at 41 but the strikeouts are dangerously high (61) for someone with gap power. Jackson has stolen 11 bases in 17 tries.

32. Tim Wheeler, OF, Colorado
Wheeler has posted modest numbers in 2010 at high-A ball. He’s currently hitting .253/.351/.394 with six homers and 12 steals in 62 games. The left-handed hitter is batting just .210 against southpaws.


Where Have A.J. Burnett’s Strikeouts Gone?

Following Wednesday night’s disastrous start (3.1 innings pitched, two homers, and more walks than strikeouts) A.J. Burnett has now faced 382 batters on the season. Two hundred batters faced is the amount Pizza Cutter established as the threshold for strikeouts/plate appearances to become a reliable metric during a single season. That’s worth noting because Burnett’s strikeout percentage sits at 16.5%. Over the last three seasons, he struck out 23.7% of batters faced; over the last five that number is 23%; for his career it’s 21.7%. As it stands, the only season in which Burnett struck out batters at a lower rate than he is currently was way back in 2000. That year, he struck out 15.7% as a 23-year-old

When Burnett signed with the Yankees, the expectation was that his numbers could actually improve. He was battle tested in the rough American League East. More important than battled tested, though, he was successful. His xFIP had ranged from 3.55 to 3.64 over his three-year stint with the Jays, and a move to the Yankees meant he would no longer have to face a lineup consisting of multiple Hall of Famers on numerous occasions each season. That hasn’t been the case, though.

It was probably unrealistic to expect Burnett to improve on his whiff rate, which was over 10% in 2008, but that figure declined to 8.2% in 2009, and sits at 7.1% in 2010. A once raging fastball, sitting in the upper 90s on some occasions, has retreated in velocity. Pitchfx has its average velocity sitting just about 93 miles per hour, with empty swings occurring under 6% of the time. The only pitch Burnett is actually having batters miss often is his knuckle curve (12.5%). Compare that to last season and the only noticeable changes have nothing at all to do with his velocity being down. He’s actually getting more whiffs on the fastball and fewer on the curve.

That would suggest the decline is not entirely due to his velocity, which leaves predictability and location as the other potential culprits. The curve becomes Burnett’s go-to pitch when he reaches two strikes. With the exception of 3-2 counts, Burnett tosses his bender more than 50% of the time on each count. This doesn’t differ too much from 2009, when he threw it 60+% of the time on 0-2 and 1-2 and 48% on 2-2. This usage pattern actually resembles his 2008 pattern more than anything.

This would lead to a question of whether it’s Burnett’s location of the curveball that’s problematic. In 2009, the pitch was swung at under 40% of the time and resulted in a strike nearly 60% of the time. In 2010, however, the swing rate has remained static, while the strike rate has dipped to a little over 51%. That’s not a radical shift, mind you, but a big enough one that it alters Burnett’s ability to succeed. If batters are able to hold off on the inevitable avalanche of curveballs that dive below the zone on two strike counts, that means Burnett will have to beat them with his fastball or sinker, a combination of which hasn’t resulted in a positive run value since 2007.

The most troubling statistic associated with Burnett is that 40% of his strikeouts have come against the Orioles and Indians. Those starts account for a little more than 20% of his starts this season.


Ubaldo’s Unimpressive Start

Behind Ubaldo Jimenez’s eight IP, one run outing, the Colorado Rockies defeated the Minnesota Twins 5-1. As much as an eight inning, one run start can be unimpressive in the major leagues, this was it. Jimenez only struck out four batters while walking two. He allowed eight hits while allowing seven line drives and only inducing two swings and misses.

Not only that, but the Twins lineup today was especially weak by their standards, as Matt Tolbert was in the lineup for Orlando Hudson at second base and Drew Butera was at catcher for Joe Mauer. J.J. Hardy’s continued absence forced Nick Punto to move over to SS and rookie Danny Valencia to start at third base. The loss of Mauer, in particular, lowers the lineups average projected wOBA from .344 – well above average – to .329, nearly average.

Given the results from Ubaldo’s start – 4 K, 2 BB, 12 GB, 4 OFB (outfield flies), 7 LD, we would have expected the Twins to score 3.75 runs, based on the average run values used from tRA. That would be 4.22 runs per 9 innings, or 3.88 earned runs per 9 innings. That’s not bad – it’s still well above average, but not what we’d expect from the pitcher who has essentially been crowned King of the World.

It’s starts like these that are the reason that we shouldn’t place Jimenez above such pitchers as Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, both pitchers who have performed at a higher level this season than Jimenez. Lee has a well-documented 15 K/BB, which would easily be the best mark in Major League history. Roy Halladay’s 2.38 ERA is supported by a superior 2.67 FIP, making him the most valuable pitcher in baseball so far.

It’s not like this start is just one isolated incident – see 5/26 vs. ARI – only 3 Ks and 1 BB, or 5/20 vs. HOU – there are times that, despite his ace stuff, he doesn’t quite dominate hitters like his ERA suggests he has.

This isn’t to say that Ubaldo Jimenez isn’t a great pitcher – I believe he’s squarely in the top 10 SPs in the league, if not the top 5. However, today’s start simply wasn’t a top-level start, even though he managed to hold the Twins to one run. We cannot crown him as the greatest pitcher in the league quite yet.


More Egregious Umpiring: Yorvit Torrealba Suspended Three Games

We’ve had some Awful Umpiring this season, from the Buehrle Balks to the Galarraga One-Hitter, and players are calling out individual umpires by name more than ever before. The recent ESPN poll of major league players about the best and worst umps in baseball was especially revealing: it was the first time in my memory that players were asked their opinion of umpires by name, and while the results were eye-opening they weren’t at all surprising. The worst umpires were CB Bucknor, Joe West, and Angel Hernandez, which we all knew anyway, but it was remarkable to hear the players admit it.

Yorvit Torrealba got suspended for three games after protesting balls and strikes on Monday, when the brim of his batting helmet incidentally touched umpire Larry Vanover. But Vanover escalated the argument considerably. Watch the video, and you’ll see he actually took a step toward Torrealba. Torrealba will have to take the suspension sooner or later — umps are sacrosanct, and no part of you gets to touch any part of them — but Vanover’s actions feed into the overall problem that more and more players are calling out this year: the umpires think the game is about them, they like drawing attention to themselves, and, as a result, it’s hard to trust them to be neutral arbiters.

The parallel problem, of course, is obvious. The more mistakes that umpires make, the easier, and more inevitable, become the arguments for instant replay. Sure, it makes the game seem less “pure,” and it will probably make an almost intolerably long game excruciatingly longer — especially if you imagine Joe Girardi and Terry Francona staring at each other across the top step of their dugouts, challenge flag in hand, ready to call back the slightest miscue, a possibility so nightmarish that it could cause Joe West to wake up screaming. Instant replay is, by its very nature, slow: it’s replay. It’s an imperfect compromise between a world where umpires are the law and a world where umpires aren’t necessary, where a GameDay Pitch Tracker calls strikes and balls and a traffic camera mans first base to call runners safe and out. We have the technology right now to do without umpires. We don’t have the gumption — but we have the tech.

So it makes sense that umpires feel like they’re under attack. They are. Their livelihood is being threatened by the times they live in. However, it’s also being threatened by the individual actions of individual umpires, from the explosively short fuses of Joe West and Bill Hohn to the completely inconsistent strike zones of Angel Hernandez and CB Bucknor. In ordinary times, a good umpire is like a good spy: the best ones are the ones you never hear about or think about at all. These are not ordinary times, and the spotlight is shining brightly. The more they step towards it — like Larry Vanover’s step towards Yorvit Torrealba — the brighter it will shine. The only way for umpires to decrease the drama is to take a step back.


Why Do Managers Bat Replacements in the Starter’s Spot?

There are plenty of managerial decisions that I routinely do not understand. Most of them relate to the bullpen and how the manager selects a reliever for certain situations. The rest relate to lineup construction. We know that in the macro lineup order doesn’t matter that much, but that doesn’t exactly justify the decision to use a well below-average hitter in that position. Why place a poor hitter among your best? Why not move him to the bottom, so the good hitters have a better chance to get on base and knock each other in?

This leads to another managerial tactic that I never understood: placing a replacement in the starter’s batting order spot. When this happens with a bottom of the order hitter it’s usually no big deal. It’s when the manager replaces one of his top hitters with a replacement that baffles me. There has to be some reason behind it, since so many managers routinely do it. But that doesn’t make it any less perplexing.

Ron Gardenhire not only does this, but he’s doing it while one of his starters is on the DL. Orlando Hudson should be back from his wrist injury by week’s end, but until then Matt Tolbert acts as his stand-in. If this were just a defensive move it wouldn’t be a problem. After all, few teams can absorb an injury to their starting second baseman and replace him with someone who can produce similarly. The problem is that Gardenhire has not just penciled Tolbert’s name into Hudson’s spot in the field, but also in the batting order. In 45 PA this year Tolbert has gotten on base 10 times. Last year, in 231 PA, he had a .303 OBP. He belongs nowhere near the No. 2 spot, and yet Gardenhire has used him there for most games during Hudson’s absence.

Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson is currently day-to-day with back spasms. He left Sunday’s game and hasn’t played since. That shouldn’t be a big problem for the Tigers, since they have Johnny Damon, who for most of his career was a leadoff hitter, in the No. 2 spot. But instead of moving Damon up one spot and putting a hitter like, say, Brennan Boesch or Carlos Guillen in the second spot, Leyland has chosen to use Jackson’s replacements, Ryan Raburn and Don Kelly, in the leadoff spot. Raburn, maybe, makes a degree of sense. He had a .359 OBP and .378 wOBA last season, though he’s playing horribly this season. Kelly, however, is a plain bad hitter. He’s actually brought down his .290 career OBP this year, reaching safely just 13 times in 77 chances. There is no reason to hit him first and give him more PA than hitters like Guillen and Boesch.

These are just two examples I noticed last night. Many other managers do this, too. Jerry Manuel, for instance, used to bat Alex Cora second when giving Luis Castillo a day off. Hitting Castillo second is questionable in the first place, but at least he had a .347 OBP to help justify the move. But to replace him in the field and in the batting order with Cora just seems reckless. In only three seasons of his career has Cora’s wOBA broken .300, the last time in 2008 with the Red Sox. He has a .306 OBP this season. There are plenty of hitters on the Mets, including David Wright, who would fit better in that spot when Castillo sat. With Castillo on the DL Manuel has shown a shred of sanity, hitting Angel Pagan second.

The question still remains of why these managers employ this tactic. It can’t be because the other players are comfortable in their batting order spots. Manuel has messed with his lineup numerous times this season, moving Wright from third to fifth, to fourth for a game, and now back to third. Jason Bay has hit in the Nos. 3, 4, and 5 spots. Neither has hit second even one time. Alex Cora has 16 times. Similarly, Damon has hit leadoff three times and has hit third four times. Why in the world, then, play Kelly there for even one game? Gardenhire routinely hits Justin Morneau third when Joe Mauer takes a day off. Why, then, can’t he put a hitter better than Matt Tolbert in the second spot?

Again, on a macro level, lineup order doesn’t matter a great deal. But on a game-to-game basis, when anything can happen at any moment, why wouldn’t you want to put your best hitters near the top of the order, where they can get on base and knock each other in? Why put a player who makes out more frequently than other players in the lineup near the top? Why let them take one more turn at bat than clearly superior hitters? It just doesn’t make sense. That hasn’t stopped managers from doing anything, though, so I fully expect this trend to continue. But that doesn’t make it any less of a shame.


Reviewing the ’09 First Round

Well, the 2010 draft is in the books and teams are now madly trying to sign their top picks. Let’s have a quick look back to the ’09 draft and see how all the first-round picks are making out. We’ll look at the first 16 players today (Thursday) and check out the final 16 on Friday.

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
As you know, Mr. Strasburg is already in the Majors after dominating the high minors. He’s more than held his own with the Nationals and has given up a hit rate of just 4.38 H/9 through two starts while posting a strikeout rate of 16.05. And did I mention his fastball is sitting at 98 mph? Yeah, he’s pretty good.

2. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle
Ackley got off to a much slower start than Strasburg and posted a batting average of just .147 in 20 April games. But the light switched on in May and he’s hit more than .300 since the end of April. His current triple-slash line is .252/.395/.374 in 206 at-bats in double-A.

3. Donavan Tate, OF, San Diego
The first-round curse continues for San Diego; the club’s best first-round picks in the last 10 years were Khalil Greene and Tim Stauffer. Tate has suffered through no fewer than three mild-to-serious injuries since signing and he has yet to make his debut, which was supposed to begin in low-A at the beginning of April.

4. Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh
In terms of pure numbers, Sanchez has been one of the more successful ’09 first rounders. Currently in high-A, the catcher is angling for a promotion while hitting .311/.411/.439 with 16 doubles in 196 at-bats.

5. Matt Hobgood, RHP, Baltimore
Baltimore passed over more highly regarded prep arms to snag the cheaper Hobgood (in order to spread the draft budget around). The results haven’t been great in low-A. Hobgood has a 4.93 FIP and just 42 strikeouts in 64.1 innings. On the plus side, he has a solid ground-ball rate at 57%.

6. Zach Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco
Wheeler has flashed some very encouraging skills on the mound, but inconsistency and command continues to elude him. The right-hander has struck out a lot of batters, with 33 whiffed in 26.2 innings, but he’s also walked 17. His 61% ground-ball rate is also impressive. He’ll continue to move along slowly.

7. Mike Minor, LHP, Atlanta
Despite a poor record and high-ish ERA (both of which don’t tell you much about the quality of a minor league pitcher), Minor has had a very successful season. Improved secondary pitches, fastball velocity, and command have helped the Braves prospect to lead the Southern League in strikeouts. His ceiling has risen from the previously predicted No. 3 starter slot.

8. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati
Like Strasburg, Leake is currently pitching in a big league starting rotation. What’s more impressive, though, is that he’s done it since the beginning of the 2010 season and never did pitch in the minors. Leake is nowhere near as dominating as the first overall pick, but he has a nice ground-ball rate of 51% and a respectable xFIP at 4.28.

9. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit
Often likened to Detroit’s ’08 first rounder Rick Porcello, Turner is not as advanced and will ascend through the minors at a much slower rate. He was derailed earler this season by injury (not serious) but has looked good since returning in May. He currently has a nice 2.88 FIP and has walked just eight batters in 48.1 innings of work.

10. Drew Storen, RHP, Washington
The Washington organization received great value with this unprotected pick (for failing to sign Aaron Crow in ’08). The right-handed reliever breezed through the minors and has already asserted himself in the Nats bullpen. He’s not a finished product just yet, though, and he has a 5.17 xFIP through 12 appearances.

11. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado
Considered the best prep arm by many, Matzek slid to the Rockies due to perceived bonus demands. The club, though, got him signed rather easily. He did not make his pro debut until late May 2010 after signing late in ’09 and then spending extra time in extended spring training at the beginning of this season. Matzek has a 4.47 FIP and 27 Ks in 23.2 innings through five starts.

12. Aaron Crow, RHP, Kansas City
College pitchers take a real risk when they walk away from a large contract offer and head off to prove themselves in independent baseball. Crow has struggled since signing with KC, after following that route when he failed to sign with Washington as a first round pick in ’08. The right-hander currently has a 4.59 FIP and has struggled with his control (35 walks in 74.0 innings). His ground-ball rate is awesome at 71%.

13. Grant Green, SS, Oakland
Considered the top shortstop in the draft, Green has performed well in high-A ball this season. He’s currently hitting .310/.361/.455 in 268 at-bats. On the downside, Green has struck out a bit much (20% K rate) for his modest power output and it would be nice to see him be a little more patient at the plate (6.4% BB rate).

14. Matt Purke, LHP, Texas (Did Not Sign)
The success of Tanner Scheppers, a supplemental first round pick from ’09, has helped to lessen the sting of losing Purke, but Texas fans may want to look away now. Purke headed off to Texas Christian University in the fall of ’09 and has developed into a potential Top 5 pick (depending on his signability) for the 2011 draft, as he will be a somewhat rare draft-eligible sophomore. This season as a freshman, Purke posted a 3.37 FIP with 81 hits allowed, a walk rate of 2.55 BB/9, and a strikeout rate of 11.52 K/9 in 95.1 innings.

15. Alex White, RHP, Cleveland
Cleveland hasn’t had a ton of luck drafting college pitchers in the past few years but it looks to have scored with White. The right-hander posted a 3.96 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in eight high-A starts before moving up to double-A. At the higher level, he has a 4.52 FIP and 0.88 WHIP in five games.

16. Bobby Borchering, 3B, Arizona
Supplemental first round pick, and fellow prep third baseman, Matt Davidson has had more statistical success so far, but don’t count out Borchering. The 19-year-old prospect is holding his own in low-A with a triple-slash line of .252/.321/.395 in 238 at-bats.


Pitch Counts in Japan

A post I wrote last week over at NPB Tracker got me thinking about how many pitches NPB starters actually throw, so I queried the data I’ve collected for this season. Here are the results:

Read the rest of this entry »


Should the Mets Trade for a Starting Pitcher?

There have recently been some murmurs going around the Orange and Blue watercoolers that the Mets are looking for a starting pitcher, with names like Cliff Lee and Kevin Millwood being thrown around. Although the Mets are within a reasonable striking distance of first place in the NL East, there are a few things to analyze here. First, what is a weakness the Mets can try to improve? Here are some relevant rankings for the Mets in terms of place in the National League:

Team ERA: 6th
Team xFIP: 14th
Team FIP: 10th

So the Mets may be getting a little lucky with their pitching performance thus far, but we also need to remember that those numbers include some terrible pitching from former starter Oliver Perez (now on the DL and in the bullpen upon his return) and John Maine (now on the DL). Here is what looks to be the Mets rotation for the rest of the season with current FIP and rest of season FIP via ZiPS:

Johan Santana: 3.81/3.47
Mike Pelfrey: 3.28/4.00
Jonathon Niese: 3.76/3.98
R.A. Dickey: 3.37/4.66
Hisanori Takahashi: 3.27/No Projection
John Maine: 5.82/4.44

There are some problems with looking at the projections as well. R.A. Dickey is pitching with a completely new regimen and type of knuckleball, so the the outlook may be unfairly pessimistic, and there are no numbers for Takahashi. Either way, this rotation is solid. But what about the offense?

Team wOBA: 13th
Team OBP: 13th
Team SLG: 12th

Not pretty. However, the Mets do hope to get Carlos Beltran back in the near future, and Jose Reyes and Jason Bay will most likely perform better than they have thus far. With a lineup of Reyes / Beltran / Wright / Davis / Bay / Pagan / Barajas / Castillo, the Mets could reasonably have each position player with a wRC+ at ~100 or over. Unfortunately for the Mets, they have to hope for Beltran, Reyes, and Castillo to return to health and form, as well as continued above-average production from Barajas (although Blanco has played extremely well thus far).

Omar Minaya has another month and a half to see where the Mets stand. They probably have a true talent level of about 85 wins or so, but even teams with a true talent level of .500 can get to 88 wins or more. However, if the Mets are within a few games of first place at the end of July, a solid trade can easily push them right into the thick of things. This isn’t to say the Mets should trade Reese Havens, Jenrry Mejia, and Ike Davis for Cliff Lee. In fact, it may be more prudent of the Mets to move John Maine and Takahashi to the bullpen and pick up another solid arm without as big of a pricetag. Jake Westbrook would be a good fit; he’s a groundball pitcher who has been hurt value-wise by his homers per fly balls. A dose of Citi Field may be exactly what he needs. He’ll get a chance to audition for the Mets when he faces them in Cleveland tonight.

Unsurprisingly, the answer to the title of this article is, “It depends.” Omar Minaya may have the green light to pull the trigger, but picking up too big of a gun may prove pyrrhic in the longrun.


Piniella Loses His Marbles

In the last month, the Cubs have played 27 games. 15 of those have been started by Geovany Soto, while 12 have been started by Koyie Hill.

Soto is hitting .268/.409/.458, good for a .387 wOBA.
Hill is hitting .236/.267/.292, good for a .245 wOBA.

It gets worse. We’re over halfway through the month of June, and Soto has 22 plate appearances. Hill has 27. As the Cubs season slips away, Lou Piniella has decided that one of the ways he can get his team to win games is to change catchers, despite the fact that Soto is one of the best hitting catchers in the game while Hill is one of the worst.

The reason, of course, is the old manager crutch: handling pitchers. Since Hill can’t hit, he’s earned the reputation as a good defender. Piniella believes he’s simply exchanging offense for defense by putting Hill in the lineup. The problem is that there is absolutely nothing in the record that he could possibly lean on to support playing Hill with such frequency.

Soto is poor at throwing out basestealers. He is just 8 for 41 this year, a 20 percent success rate. Hill? 3 for 16, a 19 percent success rate.

Lou doesn’t like the way Soto handles a pitching staff, and believes the guys on the mound perform better with Hill behind the plate. Opponents are hitting .253/.324/.392 when Soto catchers, and .236/.308/.383 when Hill catches. The difference is tiny, and is entirely wrapped up in BABIP – the team’s BB/K rate is actually slightly better when Soto catches.

In fact, if you look back over the last three years, the Cubs have allowed 4.18 runs per game when Hill starts and 4.27 runs per game when Soto starts. Even if you believe in something like catchers ERA (you shouldn’t, but that’s another story), the observed difference between Hill and Soto is less than a tenth of a run per game.

The observed difference between Soto and Hill at the plate is much, much larger. Even using a regressed projection like the rest-of-season ZiPS, we would see a .362 wOBA for Soto and a .289 wOBA for Hill, which translates to about .25 runs per four plate appearances.

Plain and simple: Piniella is screwing up. He’s playing a bad player over a good player in an effort to win more games. It’s not like the team is responding to the move, either. On May 17th, the Cubs were 17-22, 5 1/2 games out of first place. Today, they are 29-36, 6 1/2 games out of first place. They’ve gone 12-14 since Piniella decided to make Soto a part-time player.

The Cubs are almost certainly going to have a house cleaning at some point in the near future. In the best interest of the organization, their manager should probably be part of that, and the franchise should make “Is Geovany Soto a better catcher than Koyie Hill?” the first question they ask in the interview process.