I think it’s been enough time to give a decent amount of analysis and reflection on some of the trades that transpired prior to the start of the 2009 season:

Tigers receive: SP Edwin Jackson
Rays receive: OF Matt Joyce
Advantage: Tigers

This one will have to go in the Tigers’ direction, as Jackson sported a 3.62 ERA, 4.28 FIP, and 4.39 xFIP for Detroit in 2009, adding up to a very nice 3.5 WAR season. Jackson, who is having an even better season for the D’Backs this year, helped net the Tigers SP Max Scherzer and OF Austin Jackson. Matt Joyce, on the other hand, has been a disappointment. He produced -0.1 WAR for the Rays in 11 games last seson and has been in Triple-A for 2010.
– – –

Indians receive: RHP Joe Smith, INF Luis Valbuena
Mariners receive: CF Franklin Gutierrez, RHP Aaron Heilman, CF Endy Chavez, 1B Mike Carp, SP Jason Vargas, RHP Maikel Cleto, CF Ezekiel Carrera
Mets receive: RHP J.J. Putz, OF Jeremy Reed, RHP Sean Green
Advantage: Mariners

I don’t think there’s much doubt here that the Mariners absolutely dominated this deal. Not only did they get the incredibly valuable Franklin Gutierrez, but they also received some decent prospects and an MLB-caliber starting pitcher in Vargas. The Mets got a whole bunch of misery, although Sean Green can be a valuable ROOGY when healthy. The Indians didn’t think Gutierrez was ever going to be an everyday player and were looking at Smith and Valbuena as possible pieces to a playoff run in ’09. Unfortunately for them, Joe Smith has not panned out at all and Valbuena has been awful.
– – –

Yankees receive: OF Nick Swisher and RHP Kanekoa Texeira
White Sox receive: INF Wilson Betemit, SP Jeff Marquez and P Jhonny Nunez
Advantage: Yankees

It’s clear that Kenny Williams overreacted to a medicore year from Swisher in 2008 driven by a very low BABIP. The peripherals were still there, and in the end the Yankees have gotten 5.8 WAR out of Swisher in just 207 games. Wilson Betemit is now toying around Kansas City.
– – –

Nationals receive: SP Scott Olsen, OF Josh Willingham
Marlins receive: 2B Emilio Bonifacio, P P.J. Dean and INF Jake Smolinski
Advantage: Nationals

I understand this was a money move by the Marlins, but, man, did they get ripped off here. I wrote about this deal a little under a year ago, and it looks even worse now. Willingham was worth 2.4 WAR last year and has matched that already this year, while Scott Olsen has rejuvenated himself lately.
– – –

Cardinals receive: INF Khalil Greene
Padres receive: RHP Mark Worrell and a PTBNL
Advantage: Padres

This one seems pretty benign at first. Greene was awful in St. Louis (-0.9 WAR) and Worrell never did anything for San Diego. However, the PTBNL in the deal turned out to be Luke Gregerson, whom we have profiled a few times here at FanGraphs. Gregerson put up a 2.50 FIP last year and is at 1.99 this year entering from the Pads pen. He’s awesome.
– – –

Athletics receive: OF Matt Holliday
Rockies receive: OF Carlos Gonzalez, CL Huston Street, SP Greg Smith
Advantage: Rockies

We basically just have to compare what the Rockies gave for Holliday to what the A’s wound up getting for him. Oakland would deal him to St. Louis for INF Brett Wallace, OF Shane Peterson, and P Clayton Mortenson. Wallace was then dealt for OF Michael Taylor. Taylor has struggled mightily in Triple-A, while Gonzalez has 3.2 WAR in less than a season’s worth of playing time in Colorado. Huston Street was also fantastic for the Rockies last year, posting a 2.93 FIP.

Join Patrick Newman and myself for an hour of baseball conversation.

Overview

Despite taking the first two games of a three game set from the Angels, the Brewers remain eight games back of the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals. Given that they would need to make up that deficit on not one but two teams, the Brewers playoff odds are probably less than 1 in 40. The question, then, is how to go about preparing for 2011. The Brewers have some interesting pieces who could be on the block come July.

Buy Or Sell

The obvious question is what the Brewers will do with Prince Fielder. Fielder is in a bit of a down season, as shown by a .186 ISO against a career mark of .259. Still, Prince has a .397 OBP and a 134 wRC+. Despite a +1.7 UZR in 2009 it’s hard to imagine Fielder as that good on first base. He has a career -6.4 UZR/150, placing him squarely in the DH zone. General Manager Doug Melvin will probably have to be blown away by an offer to trade his slugger. Fielder is under control for one more season, so if the price isn’t right, Melvin will hold onto the chip and wait until either the winter or next summer. On the other hand, if Melvin is offered a package centered around an elite pitcher, be it a prospect or a young major leaguer, he would almost have to pull the trigger, given the organizational weakness on the mound.

The other piece that teams will likely give a look is Corey Hart. Somehow Hart,who hit merely 12 home runs all of last season, is the NL leader in that category with 17, despite receiving limited at-bats through most of April. Hart has had some poor BABIP luck, but ZiPS really doesn’t like Hart’s chances of maintaining the .392 146 wRC+ or, in particular, the .325 ISO. ZiPS projects hart as a .265/.330/.480 type hitter, which is unremarkable for a plodding corner outfielder like Hart. As with Fielder, the Brewers have Hart under control for one last arbitration season, meaning that the Brewers will be able to hold on until winter if they don’t get a package that appeals to them. Again, the Brewers would be seeking high level pitching at any point in their development.

Dave Bush and Craig Counsell are veterans that could potentially draw interest in a trade, but neither would be more than spare parts. Jim Edmonds has had an interesting rebirth, but, at 39, his trade value is likely low. Hart and Fielder are the major chips, as the rest of the team is either young and under team control or is suffering from poor performance, like Trevor Hoffman and Randy Wolf. Still, with the fates of Fielder and Hart up in the air, it could be an interesting summer in Milwaukee. If not, it will surely be an exciting winter.

On The Farm

Any upgrades to the Brewers farm would be welcome. First round pick Eric Arnett was recently demoted to short season ball and supplemental pick Kentrail Davis was demoted to A from A+. Max Walla, another pick from 2009, had one of the worst debuts to a professional career that I’ve seen, striking out 80 times in just over 200 short season at bats. Angel Salome and Jeremy Jeffress have each dealt with their own brands of personal problems. Needless to say, it hasn’t been a good year for Brewers farmhands.

Brett Lawrie, Jake Odorizzi, and Mat Gamel are all solid prospects, but the system lacks both depth and breadth. Any sort of talent infusion would be welcome at basically any level and any position.

Budget

This is where it gets interesting. With the contracts of Jeff Suppan, Trevor Hoffman, Bill Hall, David Weathers, Jody Gerut, Craig Counsell, Claudio Vargas, Jim Edmonds, Dave Bush, David Riske, and Gregg Zaun coming off the books, the Brewers will clear around $45 million in salary for next season. If Fielder and Hart are traded, that would be another $15 million cleared. The Brewers will see some raises for arbitration eligible players, but they should have a lot of money to play with in 2011.

Very quietly, Houston Astros lefty Wandy Rodriguez ranked among the better starters in the National League over the past few seasons. The man once known as Eny Cabreja made a name for himself from 2007 to 2009, striking out 8.25 batters per nine innings, walking 2.89 per nine, and posting a 3.81 xFIP that ranked in the top 20 among NL starters.

It hasn’t been a banner year for Rodriguez, though. Through his first 13 starts, the 31-year-old has been lit up for a 5.60 ERA. That’s the highest mark among qualified NL starters. Has Wandy lost his magic?

While Rodriguez isn’t pitching at the same level as he did over the ’07 to ’09 period, his ERA does overstate the extent of his struggles — his FIP is 4.41 and his xFIP is 4.49. Rodriguez has been plagued by a .353 BABIP, second-highest among qualified Senior Circuit starters and well above his .314 career figure. Further, his rate of stranding runners on base has dipped to 62.5 percent; the MLB average is in the 70-72 percent range, and Rodriguez’s career left on base rate is 69.4 percent.

So, Wandy hasn’t really been among the worst starters in the league. But he’s still falling well short of his pre-season forecasts. ZiPS projected 8.13 K/9, 2.81 BB/9 and a 3.78 FIP, while CHONE envisioned 8.16 K/9, 2.95 BB/9 and a 3.80 FIP. So far, Rodriguez has punched out 6.22 hitters per nine frames and issued 3.73 BB/9.

Unsurprisingly, with those strikeout and walk totals, Rodriguez is missing fewer bats, putting fewer pitches in the zone, and is getting behind in the count more than usual. From 2007 to 2009, he garnered swinging strikes 8.7 percent of the time, slightly above the 8.6 percent MLB average over that period. He located 52.3 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, with the MLB average ranging from 49.3 to 51.1 percent. Rodriguez threw a first pitch strike 60 percent, besting the 58 percent big league average.

In 2010, however, his swinging strike rate is 7.6 percent (8.2 MLB average), his zone percentage is 45.5 (47.3 MLB average) and his rate of first pitch strikes is 58.2 (58.3 MLB average).

According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Rodriguez is throwing more two-seam fastballs at the expense of four-seamers this season. Maybe it’s a classification quirk, but that would help explain his career-high 47.5 ground ball rate. Rodriguez is throwing the two-seamer for strikes (65 percent, compared to the 61.9 percent MLB average), but the pitch gets few whiffs — 4.3 percent, as opposed to the 8.4 percent MLB average.

When Wandy does throw a four-seamer, the pitch is rarely on the mark. The four-seamer has been thrown for strikes just 52.7 percent (64.1 MLB average), with a 3.2 percent whiff rate (6 percent MLB average). Batters are swinging at the pitch only 29.3 percent of the time (44.6 big league average). By contrast, Rodriguez threw the pitch for a strike about 66 percent of the time in 2008 and 2009, with an average whiff rate and a swing percentage in the low-forties.

His signature mid-70’s curveball hasn’t been as sharp, either. Rodriguez has induced a strike with the curve 60.3 percent in 2010, which is still above the 58 percent MLB average, but falls short of his 63.2 percent mark in 2009 and 62.4 percent figure in 2008. The whiff rate on his curve is 12.4 percent, down from 14 percent in 2009 and 14.2 percent in 2008 (10.5 percent MLB average).

After losing his arbitration hearing over the winter, Rodriguez is earning $5 million this season. He’s arbitration-eligible again next year, so he’s under team control through 2011. Given his track record of quality pitching over the past few seasons, Houston’s place in the standings and the team’s moribund (at least until recently) player development system, Rodriguez could find himself on the trading block. Whether the Astros choose to keep him or swap him, the club could surely use the ’07 to ’09 version of Wandy Rodriguez, as opposed to the merely adequate pitcher on display so far this season.

When we last discussed Ian Snell, he was on his way back into the Seattle rotation. Nary four weeks into his return, he’s not only on his way back out, but might be on his way to the minors. The Mariners chose to designate the 29-year-old righty for assignment yesterday, hours after Snell was abused by the Cardinals on national television. As it stood, Snell’s deposit to the rotation lasted four starts, during which his totals equaled:

16 IP
10 BB
5 SO
5 HR

That’s a FIP of roughly … REALLYREALLYBAD. It’s easy to make jokes at Snell’s expense but the thing is: this guy used to be pretty good. Since 2006-2007 he’s become less of a groundball pitcher and more of a flyball pitcher; less of a strikeout pitcher and more of a contact pitcher; and more of a base giver and less of an out taker. Maybe if one or two of those things were true, Snell would still have a major league job, but all three is the kiss of death.

Snell’s issues with home runs aren’t shocking in the least. He’s a guy who often falls behind in counts. That’s problematic for any pitcher, even more so when your fastball has never been a plus pitch according to our run values. For Snell that combination was lethal. He threw his fastball 80% of the time he fell behind 2-1; 91% of the time he fell behind 3-1; 100% of the time he faced 3-0; and even 70% of the time he had a full count working. In fact, the only counts in which Snell threw fewer than half fastballs were 0-1, 1-2, and 2-2.

So, that’s Ian Snell in a blanket. He doesn’t throw strikes; he doesn’t miss bats; he doesn’t deceive anyone, and he has an ever-slimming hope of ever reaching 90% of his former self.

Overview

While the rest of the AL West has played out just about as we predicted it would, the Seattle Mariners have not even come close to living up to their promise for 2010. The Mariners were always a high-risk, high-reward team this season, and the coin landed on risk. A combination that seems equal parts underperformance and poor luck has essentially sunk their playoff hopes for the season. They’re obvious candidates to be selling, but the question is: what is there to sell?

Buy or Sell?

Cliff Lee is the obvious piece but trading him is slightly complicated by the guaranteed draft pick compensation due the Mariners should GM Jack Zduriencik hold onto Lee for the entire season. As Dave pointed out earlier, those draft picks carry meaningful value and require a bigger trade return to make it worthwhile.

Aside from Cliff Lee, David Aardsma is the next most likely pitching trade chip thanks to his closer status and success last year. His crummy 2010, however, will put a damper on any mid-season trade. Everyone else on the Seattle staff is either young and cost-controlled or bad.

The hitting side isn’t any more fruitful. There would be a market for Ichiro Suzuki, but the team would never trade him unless he asked them to and there’s been no indication of anything close to that. Jose Lopez has made great strides defensively and adapted well to his new position at third base, which would have made him a great trade piece if his hitting hadn’t completely deserted him. Chone Figgins might net some interest from teams, but it is excessively premature for the Mariners to consider him a busted signing, especially when he looks slotted to slide back to third base in the near future.

On the Farm

Like most high-profile players associated with the Mariners, Dustin Ackley got off to a tough start with just a .244 wOBA. His 15 walks to 14 strikeouts was a good indicator as was the unlucky looking .180 BABIP, but it was still a disappointment for some. Since May 1, however, Ackley has really picked things up with a .415 wOBA and a remarkable 33 walks to 15 strikeouts. He might get a short look in Seattle come September and will be pushing for a starting job as early as next season.

Michael Saunders appears set to take over left field full time later this season and into 2011 as the Mariners should shift more DH time to Milton Bradley. Another OFer, Greg Halman, has taken a big stride forward at Triple-A.

On the pitching side, Michael Pineda is the big name, currently cruising at Double-A with 73 strikeouts in 70 innings and only 16 walks. What the Mariners lack in big name prospects outside of Ackley, they are boasting increased depth at all levels from what’s shaping up to be a very productive minor league season.

Budget

The Mariners are not going to be able to wade wily-nily into the free agent market this winter, but there’s not a whole lot to be excited about regardless. Current estimates of around $10-20 million in payroll space for free agents and a whole host of positions that need improvement. I would expect Jack Zduriencik to once again be active on the trade front.

Each year, the 12 NPB teams carry a total of 60-70 foreign players on their rosters. For a variety of reasons, this group usually turns over by more than half from year to year. Partially because of this turnover, we see a lot of players with interesting backgrounds come through Japan. In this post, I’ll take a look at some of the more interesting pitchers who are new to the Central League this season.

• * Chih-Lung Huang (RHP, Yomiuri Giants) – Hailed by some in the Japanese press as the next Chien-Ming Wang, Huang is a 21 year-old righty out of Taiwan. He grew up a fan of NPB, and last offseason spurned MLB interest to sign an ikusei contract with his favorite team, the Giants. Ikusei is a special roster designation usually used for younger players; the word itself means “training” or “development”. Huang performed well in his farm team appearances this season, and was promoted from his ikusei status all the way to the top roster to make an emergency start last weekend. He was quickly demoted after two appearances, but showed a promising sinking fastball, and it looks like he’s a solid prospect.
• * Casey Fossum (LHP, Hanshin Tigers) – Fossum failed to crack Hanshin’s opening day rotation over concerns with his velocity, but joined the team a couple weeks into the season and has been a serviceable mid-rotation arm. He’s got a 3.88 era in 46.1 innings with 41 K’s and 21 BB’s.
• * Gio Alvarado (RHP, Hiroshima Carp): If I had an NPB All-Joy team, Alvarado would definitely be on it. After kicking around the low minors, Mexico and the Indy Leagues for 10 years, Alvarado earned an NPB contract with back-to-back strong seasons in Salt Lake City and Albaquerque, two of the tougher pitching environments in AAA. He opened the season in the number two spot in the Carp’s rotation, but was quickly demoted after allowing 12 earned runs in his first 16 innings pitched. Alvarado is back with the top team, and took his first NPB win on June 12.
• * Dioni Soriano (LHP, Hiroshima Carp): Another All-Joy type, Soriano took the path less traveled to Japan: he played at the Carp Academy in his native Dominican Republic, moved on to China, and then spent a few years in Japan’s Independent Leagues before signing an ikusei contract with the Carp last season. Soriano reached the top level in May. Though he’s only made three appearances so far, Soriano shows solid velocity and could become a much-needed lefty option for the Carp. Fun facts: the Cubs have two other products of the Carp’s Dominican Academy: Esmailin Caridad, who was also an ikusei player; and a slightly more famous Soriano.
• * Chris Bootcheck (RHP, Yokohama BayStars): Bootcheck fits the good velocity, poor command reliever mold that some NPB teams have been able to work with. So far, the velocity has been there, and he’s throwing strikes, as evinced by his 11:0 K:BB ratio, and the fact that he’s given up 17 hits and three home runs in 9.1 innings of work. Most of that hit total comes from two bad outings, so hopefully he’ll get a chance to sort things out.

In an upcoming post I’ll take a look at a few interesting guys in the Pacific League.

Overview

At 34-30 the Jays are playing better than most expected. Yet they’re still stuck in the AL East, where they currently reside in fourth place. Their situation is nearly identical to last year, when they were 34-31 through 65 games. By the All-Star break they had fallen to 44-46 and were ready to deal. While this team could play above-.500 ball for a bit longer, their situation remains the same.

Buy or Sell?

Most teams with a 35-30 record at this point would probably look into adding a few pieces. The Jays actually have just a few weaknesses, and two of them in particular, second base and DH, come from players who powered their hot start last season. Yet the Jays aren’t any other team. They’re an underdog in the AL East, which features not only the two teams that share the best record in baseball, but also the team with the next best record in the AL.

Unless buying involves players that can help them not only this year but also in the next two, the Jays should probably quell any shopping urges. Even if the Red Sox further succumb to injuries and the Jays overtake them, they still have to get some help from either the Yankees or the Rays. And, again, that would also require the Jays not only to keep up their current pace, but also improve by a decent margin. They’re currently on pace for 87 wins.

At the same time, they don’t have much to sell. Despite his improvement over last year’s performance, Vernon Wells’s contract is still untouchable. Their three best pitchers — Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, and Brett Cecil — are under team control for a number of years and can help the Jays rise back to contention in the future. Their two most reputed hitters, Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, are both hitting poorly and, anyway, are young enough that they can help in the future as well.

In the final year of his contract, Lyle Overbay sounds like an attractive trade chip, especially since the Jays have first base prospect Brett Wallace on the farm. His .311 wOBA is underwhelming for a first baseman, but the outlook isn’t all bad. Since May 14 he is hitting a much more respectable .306/.359/.537, which is a bit more in line with his career numbers. He doesn’t provide a ton of power from the position, but a contender with a weakness at first base — say, the Angels — might find Overbay useful.

Jose Bautista remains under team control for 2011, so perhaps the Jays can find someone to buy high on him. He has cooled off a bit in his past nine games, in which he is 2 for 32 with no extra base hits. Assuming that some of his hot start is a legitimate improvement, the Jays can probably find a taker, though if no team is willing to pay a premium they could easily just hold onto him.

One name that seems interesting at the moment is John Buck. Signed to a $2 million contract after Kansas City declined to tender him a contract in December, Buck has joined the power hungry Jays offense, knocking 11 home runs, which already eclipses his 2008 and 2009 totals. His BA and OBP remain at their normal low levels, and there has to be concern that his power will revert after a trade. He is eligible for free agency after the season, which might make the Jays more apt to deal him. But, since they don’t have a ready replacement for him, I’d expect them to wait until the last possible moment, when their non-contention is completely assured and they risk little by installing Jose Molina as their starting catcher.

On The Farm

The Jays restocked the farm when they traded Scott Rolen last July and Roy Halladay in the winter, but that wasn’t enough of a haul to catapult them to the top of the farm system rankings. Baseball America, which ranked the systems before the Roy Halladay trade, put the Blue Jays 28, and commented that they’d have been No. 30 if not for the Rolen trade. Keith Law expresses a similar sentiment, but ranks the Jays 16th thanks to the two trades. Kevin Goldstein had them at 22, down from No. 10 in 2009.

The drop in the Jays’ system ranking comes mostly from the disappointing performances from their top prospects. A few of them have shown signs of recovery this year, which, while it likely won’t help the Jays fill holes immediately, might help facilitate their selling of position players. For example, with Brad Emaus hitting well enough at AA to warrant a promotion, and then hitting well at AAA, the Jays might be more apt to trade Hill. With J.P. Arencibia showing improvement in his second AAA stint, maybe the Jays can find a taker for Buck.

Even then, the Jays might not be apt to trade one of these players if his replacement isn’t ready for the call-up. Since both Emaus and Arencibia could use more time on the farm the Jays might wait until the off-season to trade either

Budget

The Jays’ $78 million payroll is their lowest number since 2006, so they could probably add salary if they were so inclined. A number of factors, beyond their unlikely chances of contending, mean that they almost certainly will not. They’ll shed a number of salary obligations this off-season, including $6 million for Halladay, $7 million for Overbay, $4 million for Scott Downs, $2.75 million for Alex Gonzalez, $10 million for B.J. Ryan, $2.65 million for Jason Frasor, and $2 million for Buck. But they’ll also add a few million in current obligations, including $4.5 million more for Lind and $10.5 million for Wells.

That, however, amounts to roughly $19.4 million in savings, which the Jays can use during the off-season to improve the team. If they’re going to raise payroll it seems like the off-season, rather than July, is the time to do it. This year looks rough for the Jays, but next year is a whole new season. Maybe then they can make the AL East a four-horse race.

The other day someone asked me what happened to Joe Blanton this year. He’s gotten torched this year after being a pretty solid pitcher for the Phillies a year ago, and his demise has been a big reason why the Phillies currently find themselves in third place in the NL East. The big factor in Blanton’s new found suckitude has been a dramatic drop-off in his strikeout rate, which has fallen from 7.51 K/9 a year ago to 4.98 K/9 this year.

However, perhaps the question shouldn’t be what’s changed about Blanton this year, as much as it should be what changed with Blanton last year? Here’s his career K/9 in graph form:

When seen over the course of his career, his current strikeout rate seems pretty normal. It’s last year’s performance that looks like the massive outlier, and rather than the product of a breakout, it looks more like just a fluke. How did a pitch-to-contact guy with no outpitch suddenly post an above-average strikeout rate?

Certainly, the change in leagues had something to do with it. Blanton faced #9 hitters 78 times last season, and he racked up 26 strikeouts in those at-bats. Blanton took full advantage of getting to face the opposing pitcher several times a game, and was able to pad his strikeout total against guys who don’t hit for a living. But that doesn’t begin to explain all of the change in his strikeout rate.

His velocity didn’t jump. He didn’t add a new pitch. From a big picture standpoint, not much changed. So how was Blanton able to get so many strikeouts last year, and why has he crashed back to earth this year?

Pitch selection looks like one possible suspect. With the caveat that we’re dealing with really small samples here, the glaring change in his performance from last year to this year is how well he’s done on the 2-2 count. A year ago, he threw 125 pitches when the count was even at two balls and two strikes and managed a whopping 44 strikeouts (35 percent), holding opposing batters to a .189/.194/.320 line against him.

This year, he’s thrown 27 pitches in a 2-2 count, but only racked up 5 strikeouts (19 percent), and opposing hitters are knocking him around at a .444/.444/.852 clip on that pitch. The 2-2 count is a very good one for pitchers to be in, as National League hitters are putting up an average .191/.197/.305 line in that situation this year, but Blanton has not been able to take advantage and put hitters away.

In looking at his pitch selection, we can see that he’s curiously decided to throw mostly fastballs on this count, despite it being a strikeout situation. On 2-2 this year, he’s throwing 60 percent fastballs, 6 percent sliders, 15 percent curves, and 19 percent change-ups. Last year on a 2-2 count, he threw 48 percent fastballs, 23 percent sliders, 13 percent curves, and 16 percent change-ups.

Essentially, on 2-2 counts this year, he has replaced the slider – a-swing-and-miss pitch – with the fastball. Hitters have been appreciative, and instead of going down flailing at a breaking ball, they’re driving his fastball with authority.

Maybe he has a good reason for why he’s decided to start throwing 89 MPH meatballs in a pitcher’s count, but regardless, it’s not working, and perhaps he should consider trying something else.

With news that Pedro Alvarez could be in Pittsburgh within a week, it’s time to start considering candidates for the new No. 1 third base prospect in the minors. Below are five third basemen (plus two bonus prospects) that have been performing well.

Mike Moustakas | Kansas City: Some could argue that Moustakas is already a better prospect than Alvarez. The former No. 1 pick has been on fire this season despite missing much of April due to injury. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .339/.416/.678 with 14 homers in 45 double-A games. Moustakas has been a real run producer in the minors with 54 RBI in 45 games, and a 1.531 OPS with runners in scoring position. He is, though, hitting just .250 in June. If Moustakas can stick at the hot corner, he could be a real stud for the organization. If not, things could get crowded in the outfield.

Miguel Sano | Minnesota: Let’s slide all the way down to the Dominican Summer League where we can find the 17-year-old Sano. One of the top international signees in ’09, the right-handed hitter is holding his own with a triple-slash line of .314/.405/.600 through 11 games. The 6’3” teenager is showing above-average power for his age and even has five walks, which shows good patience for the level he’s playing at. Sano will be stateside before you know it.

Matt Dominguez | Florida: The former 12th-overall pick from the ’07 draft is not lighting the world on fire, but he’s been performing well. Dominguez may never hit for a high average but the above-average fielder is showing good pop with 19 doubles and nine homers. He has a triple-slash line of .247/.322/.455 in 231 at-bats. Keep in mind that Dominguez is still just 20 and playing in double-A.

Matt Davidson | Arizona: One of my personal favorites, Davidson was a supplemental first round pick out of a California high school in ’09. He received a lot of attention after hitting .354/.393/.500 in April but he struck out 21 times with just one walk. The adjustments he’s made since then are nothing short of amazing. Davidson then walked 13 times in May (but with 33 strikeouts) and has since followed that up with seven walks and just six strikeouts through 11 June games. Overall, he’s hitting .302/.380/.502 with good pop in 225 at-bats. What you have here is a smart, coachable player.

Cody Overbeck | Philadelphia: It’s hard to know exactly what the organization has with Overbeck. An over-ager at 24 and in high-A ball, the former University of Mississippi player was also repeating the level for the second straight year. He hit .302/.380/.553 with 11 homers in 215 at-bats. He also significantly improved both his strikeout and walk rates. Overbeck was promoted to double-A recently and made his debut on June 14. Keep an eye on him, as the second half of the minor league season will speak volumes in regards to his future potential.

AL Bonus: Keep an eye on Will Middlebrooks. A 2007 fifth-round pick out of a Texas high school, Boston gave him big money to keep him away from Texas A&M, where he would have played football, as well. He’s currently hitting .286/.360/.432 in 220 high-A at-bats after moving rather slowly during his first three pro seasons. He has very good raw power (18 doubles) but has yet to turn that into over-the-fence pop. Middlebrooks is still learning to identify and hit breaking balls. The 21-year-old has slowed down in June and is batting just .188 for the month.

NL Bonus: Recently known for developing pitching talent, the Rockies organization has some impressive hitters in the minors, too. Third baseman Nolan Arenado began the year in extended spring training but he’s been on fire since being activated in low-A ball. The 19-year-old is hitting .337/.367/.517 through 21 games. He’s also struck out just nine times. More than a third of his hits have been doubles (11 of 30). Arenado was a second round draft pick out of a California high school in ’09.