When I saw Armando Garlarraga’s performance last night and decided to write up a bit about him, I wondered if it would be possible to do so without mentioning the perfect game that wasn’t. Clearly I decided that such a mention was necessary, at least at this stage. It still is, and will continue to be for some time, Galarraga’s defining moment.

It is also the highlight in what is so far a very good start of the season for Galarraga. With his peripherals, a 2.67 ERA is certainly unsustainable — his 4.50 FIP and 4.91 xFIP speak to that — but a few things have changed for Galarraga. These small changes could make his 2010 season look more like his 2008 campaign than his 2009 hit parade.

Here are a few observations from Galarraga’s five starts and one relief appearance.

Better control

You can see it right in his Dashboard: Galarraga hasn’t walked many batters in his 33.2 IP this season. He is neither a strikeout nor a groundball pitcher, so keeping hitters off base can be be a bit of a problem. One way this type of pitcher can mitigate his situation is by issuing few free passes. Galarraga has walked just seven so far. Even more impressive: he walked three in his first start against the Red Sox, meaning he was walked just four in his last four in his last 28 IP.

A high walk rate was part of Galarraga’s undoing last season. He walked 4.20 per nine after keeping that number around three per nine in 2008. More walks plus a normal BABIP equals a ballooning ERA. If Galarraga can keep his walk rate in the 2 to 2.5 per nine range, he might be able to stave off disaster once his BABIP rises from its current .212 mark.

More bad contact

Galarraga has missed fewer bats this year than ever before. With just 13 strikeouts and a 6.4 percent swinging strike rate, his fielders will have to do plenty of work. Thankfully for them, the work hasn’t been all that arduous. Galarraga has been inducing poor contact, taking pressure off the defense that has to turn plenty of plays behind him.

Specifically, Galarraga’s line drive rate is way down, 12.7 percent. In 2007 he was at 16.8 percent, and I’d expect a regression to somewhere around that mark, if not a bit higher, by year’s end. His O-Swing% is actually down compared to the league average, but his O-Contact percentage is way, way up. He never even got to a league average level in 08 and 09, but this year he’s well above, 74.1 percent against the 66.4 percent average. Finally, hitters haven’t been hitting the ball far in the air, as just four of his 48 fly balls have left the park, which constitutes a mark below his career HR/FB rate of 12.7 percent.

Getting ahead in the count

Of the 131 batters Galarraga has faced this season, 67 have seen an 0-1 count while another 18 have put the ball in play. In other words, Galarraga is getting ahead in the count at an above-average clip. He’s also seeing good results in those situations. On the first pitch hitters are just 4 for 18 with one extra base hit. Once down 0-1, opponents are batting just .175/.224/.302. Those numbers probably won’t stand up, but for now they’ve been to his benefit.

More fastballs (and fewer changes)

Given the way the data is collected, it’s tough to find significant changes from year to year in a pitcher’s repertoire. For instance, the year-to-year, not to mention park-to-park, PitchFX calibration can make for tough comparisons. I’m not exactly sure what to make of these changes, but I wanted to note them anyway.

It looks like he’s definitely thrown his fastball more. According to the BIS data Galarraga threw 49.1 percent fastballs in 2008 and 48.9 percent in 2009. This year he’s throwing 64.6 percent. Not only that, but the BIS data has him a full mph faster. The PitchFX data is close, having him at 61.9 percent fastballs (including 7.6 percent two-seamers). He’s doing this by slightly cutting down on his slider usage, from roughly 38 percent in the last two years to around 32 percent this year. More drastically, he’s cut down on his changeup, nearly eliminating it from his repertoire.

It’s tough to say whether these changes will translate into future success for Galarraga. Given his history and scouting report it would appear that he’s due for a regression. It’s tough for any pitcher to succeed with Galarraga’s strikeout, home run, and groundball rates. Whatever he’s doing so far has worked, though. His season, and perhaps his career, might be defined by his outing against the Indians, but that’s just one big part of an otherwise excellent season to date.

The Atlanta Braves organization has a history of developing talented pitchers. After a lull over the past few seasons – which still resulted in the emergence of Tommy Hanson – the assembly line is running at full speed once again. And if you’re interested in finding the most talented starting rotation in all of minor league baseball, all you have to do is throw on your flip-flops and some swimming trunks and head on down to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. There you’ll find Randall Delgado, Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, and J.J. Hoover.

Pre-season Braves Top 10 prospect ranking by FanGraphs in parentheses.

Randall Delgado, RHP (6)
The 20-year-old right-hander has had little trouble with hitters in the Carolina League. In the league, Delgado is currently first in innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP and second in ERA. He’s given up just 59 hits in 78.0 innings. He’s also shown exceptional control with just 17 walks issued to go along with 87 strikeouts. Right-handed batters are hitting .201 against him. The Panama native has an overpowering fastball that sits in the 90-95 mph range, and he also has a 54% ground-ball rate. That is a killer combination. Delgado’s repertoire also includes a plus curveball and a change-up.

Julio Teheran, RHP (3)
Just 19, this Columbia native began the year in low-A ball but dominated the competition with a 1.14 ERA (2.68 FIP) and .168 average-allowed. Moved up to Myrtle Beach in high-A ball, Teheran currently has a 1.69 ERA (2.16 FIP) with 29 hits and just five walks allowed in 32.0 innings. He’s also struck out 37 batters. He’s still working on becoming more consistent, but Teheran has been absolutely dominating at times with 12 strikeouts in one performance (7.0 IP) and 14 in another (8.0). The right-hander is more of a fly-ball pitcher and has a ground-ball rate of 40%. His repertoire includes an 89-94 mph fastball, curveball and change-up. Teheran is not quite as durable as Delgado and has dealt with some shoulder woes in the past.

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (4)
The key to the Javier Vazquez deal (wouldn’t New York fans like this one back?), Vizcaino has broken out in a big way this season. The 19-year-old is not quite as projectable (6’0” 190 lbs) as Delgado and Teheran, but he has an advanced feel for pitching given his age. The right-hander began the year in low-A ball and walked just nine batters in 69.1 innings. He also added 66 strikeouts and allowed 60 hits. His FIP was 2.29 (2.34 ERA). Like Teheran, Vizcaino gets a fair number of fly-ball outs and he produced a ground-ball rate of 40%. Moved up to high-A recently, Vizcaino has made just one start and he gave up four runs on eight hits and a walk in 4.0 innings. His repertoire includes an 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball and change-up.

J.J. Hoover, RHP (11)
Hoover was the player pushed off of the FanGraphs’ Top 10 prospect list for the Braves when Vizcaino was acquired from the Yankees. Hoover was a 10th round draft pick out of a small community college during the 2008 draft. His stuff is not as electric as the other three pitchers on this list, but he commands his pitches and shows good control for his experience level. Hoover’s repertoire includes an 88-92 mph fastball, good change-up and curveball. The right-hander has given up 70 hits and 19 walks in 69.0 innings of work this season. He’s also struck out 53 batters. It would probably benefit him to improve his average ground-ball rate up into the 50-60% range, as he works up in the zone a little too much. That could come back to haunt him at higher levels of professional baseball.

The Myrtle Beach club also features a couple other interesting names to remember. Both Zeke Spruill and Cole Rohrbough have displayed solid potential in the past but inconsistencies and injuries have slowed their ascent through the minors. Both are currently on the disabled list after having struggled earlier in the year. Spruill came into ’10 as the No. 7 prospect on the team’s Top 10 list and was a second round draft pick out of a Georgia high school in ’08. Rohrbough zoomed up the prospect chart after a solid debut season in ’07 but has been unable to duplicate that success in subsequent seasons.

During the off-season the Braves had the most wonderful of problems. In a league where starting pitching comes at a premium, having six solid starters under contract becomes a huge advantage. The Braves could choose to carry all six, keeping one in the bullpen in case one of the starting five needed time off. Conversely, they could afford to deal one of the starters to fill a hole. The Braves chose the latter, though they only nominally filled a hole. While Melky Cabrera can be a serviceable outfielder, the real return was top pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino, who has impressed so far. Still, that left the big league team a little lighter on the pitching front.

We so often see teams with heralded pitching depth come up dry. Last year the Red Sox not only had a strong starting five heading into the season, but they had John Smoltz on the comeback trail and Clay Buchholz waiting at AAA. That depth thinned quickly, leaving them searching for pitching later in the season. The Braves have faced a similar, though not as dire, situation this year. While Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson have pitched admirably, both Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami have been below average to date. Even worse, Jair Jurrjens, one of their rotation pillars in 2008 and 2009, not only pitched terribly in his first four starts, but he left the fifth with hamstring tightness. He has been on the DL ever since.

The Braves had some flexibility at that point and didn’t require a fifth starter until May 8, and then not again until May 18. For those starts they turned to Kris Medlen, who had been pitching quite well out of the bullpen in his second major league season. In 12 appearances covering 17.2 innings, Medlen struck out 16 to just three walks, allowing five earned runs along the way. He also pitched very well out of the pen in 2009, striking out 53 to 19 walks in 49.1 innings. The problem was, he hadn’t shown much during his brief stint as a starter.

Medlen, a 10th round pick in 2006, actually started his career in the bullpen. He absolutely dominated the lower minors, earning a spot in AA by 2008. There he split the year between the bullpen and the starting rotation, starting in 17 of his 36 appearances on the year. That kept his innings, 120.1, in check and allowed him to show his stuff. In his 92.1 innings as a starter he struck out 90 to 21 walks and just four home runs. He then started 2009 in the AAA rotation and was even better, striking out 40 to 10 walks and no homers in 34 IP. That earned him a call-up, though he stumbled out of the gates. The Braves then moved him back to his native bullpen, where he was, again, pretty excellent.

In the rotation full-time since mid-May, Medlen has pitched his way into the Braves’ future plans. In 42.2 innings during his six starts he has struck out just 27, but has shown plenty of control, walking just seven. The only downside, it seems, comes from the seven home runs he has allowed. It’s not all bad, though. Three of them came in one appearance, easily his poorest of the year. Two also came in his second start, against the Mets, and both were solo shots. He’s been such a pleasant addition that the Braves will have to think hard about what to do once Jurrjens is ready to return.

Of course, once Medlen entered the rotation he also exited the bullpen. The Braves had a solid back end of Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, but what about the pitchers before them? Medlen played a prominent role, not one that can be easily replaced. I’m sure the Braves didn’t think that Jonny Venters would step into a primary setup role when they called him up in mid-April, but sometimes crazy things like that just work out. The emergence of Venters probably made it easier for the Braves to move Medlen from the bullpen to the rotation.

As R.J. wrote at the end of May, Venters’s performance has been special enough to warrant a mention. At the time R.J. wrote it Venters had a 60 percent groundball rate and a 14 percent swinging strike rate through his first 17 innings. He has since added another 10.2 innings to that total, and things are actually going better. His swinging strike rate is up to 15.5 percent, which is second in the majors among pitchers with at least 20 innings. (First is a subject of a previous post, Luke Gregerson.)

This improvement is even more remarkable because he has done it in higher leverage situations. From his debut on April 17 through R.J.’s article on May 25 Venters had faced just two situations where his pLI was above 1.00. The first came on May 8, in relief of Medlen, in which he succeeded in holding the game. The other came against Pittsburgh on the 23rd, in which he also succeeded in recording the one out with which he was charged. Yet in three of his last four appearances he’s faced a pLI of over 2.00. His stats in those three high-leverage situations: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K.

The three unearned runs and two walks came in the same appearance against Arizona. He struck out two in the inning but also walked two. After the second strikeout a runner reached on an error, which meant that Venters picked up no earned runs on the ensuing bases-loaded double. He did, however, allow the D’Backs to tie the game. His offense later bailed him out. Otherwise Venters has pitched brilliantly, even when the situations get tough.

Neither pitcher is perfect. Venters still walks too many guys, and as he showed during that meltdown against Arizona, that can haunt you. Medlen has seen one of his biggest advantages, a low home run rate, evaporate as a starter. He has already allowed eight this year, in 61.1 IP, than he did in all of last year’s 67.2 IP. Yet both have given the Braves hope for the future, both in the immediate and long-term. Both their rotation and their bullpen look stronger with Medlen and Venters.

With all the hooplah surrounding the Mets, one player who usually gets put under the radar is Rod Barajas. This off-season, Omar Minaya avoided the temptation of signing Bengie Molina, a wise move that level-headed fans applauded. He instead signed two veteran catchers, Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco, to decent contracts, all the while keeping a plethora of backup options (Josh Thole, Chris Coste, Omir Santos, etc) ready. Thus far, the combination of Barajas and Blanco behind the plate has been solid, racking up 1.6 WAR on the season.

However, in typical Mets fan fashion, many have gotten caught up in Barajas’ homeruns and RBI totals instead of his humble 0.8 WAR. David Lennon at Newsday wrote an article entitled, “Mets would be wise to re-sign Barajas,” and although I can’t see much of it thanks to Newsday’s silly paywall, I can guess the whole thing talks at length about leadership, handling New York, RBI/homers, and managing the pitching staff (i.e. very intangible things). Many Mets fans are in unison with Lennon on the issue, which is all the more upsetting.

There are currently fourteen other catchers in the National League alone with a WAR of at least equal to Barajas’ 0.8. Barajas has certainly exceeded my level of expectations, but those were low to begin with. Rod had an OBP of .258 (!) last season in 125 games, and his mark of .281 this year isn’t much better. However, his .500+ SLG gives him a solid .330 wOBA on the year. Unfortunately, ZiPS only projects him to slug .421 the rest of the way, good for just a .306 wOBA. Even with his career-high power streak this year, Barajas’ wRC+ sits at just 104, meaning that once his fly balls stop leaving the yard at his current rate, he’s doomed for below mediocrity.

So what can the Mets do rather than sign Barajas to an extension after he’s performed decently for three months? They can see see how the rest of the season goes and evaluate things in November. They can let him go and give a chance to Josh Thole, who had the following wOBA projections preseason:

CHONE: .321
ZiPS: .343
Marcel: .315

Although Thole has struggled somewhat in Triple-A, he did perform well in a brief major league appearance in 2009. His defense isn’t great, but neither is Barajas’. Most importantly, he’s cheap and controlled by the team.

However, Thole doesn’t have to be the only option either. The Mets could attempt to buy low on Rockies catcher Chris Iannetta, a very good catcher who’s been displaced by the surging Miguel Olivo. Iannetta put up 5.7 WAR from 2008-09, and ZiPS has him projected for a .344 wOBA for the rest of 2010.

The Mets can sell high on Barajas at the trade deadline and put Thole and Blanco in a true platoon behind the plate. Due to the clubhouse issues and media attention, this one seems very unlikely.

Finally, the Mets can do what they did last season: cut ties with their major league catchers and just wait for something to fall in the off-season, a strategy that usually works especially well with catchers.

Last year, the Mets unnecessarily traded Ramon Castro to the White Sox because they were excited about the play of Omir Santos. You want to know what was said of Santos? He was energetic, handled the pitching staff well, a fan-favorite, could deal with the pressure of New York, and was hitting pretty well (pop, but no walks). Where is Omir Santos today? Hitting .105 for Double-A Binghamton. I’m not saying that Rod Barajas = Omir Santos (Barajas is clearly, clearly better); however, the Mets should just be extremely wary to overreact to a few months of average play from their catcher just because some buzz words have been thrown around. Hopefully Omar is listening.

Overview

The D’Backs came into 2010 with some hopes of contention. With some quality players forming what should be a decent core, the hoped-for-return of Brandon Webb, and some decent off-season additions, Arizona fans had some reason for optimism. It has not, however, turned out in their favor: Dan Haren has struggled; Webb remains on the DL; and the bullpen has imploded. The team sits 11 1/2 games out of first place in the National League West, and at 26-38, their playoff chances are practically nil.

Buy Or Sell?

There’s no doubt which way the D’Backs should go at the deadline, and they have enough chips to make a sell-off interesting.

Adam LaRoche is the most obvious name from the roster who will likely be moved, as he’s both productive and cheap enough to be enticing to other clubs. The Diamondbacks could hold onto him and exercise their side of the mutual option for 2011, but there’s no guarantee LaRoche would pick up his part of it, and $7.5 million for a league average first baseman isn’t exactly a bargain anyway. They’re best off moving him this summer.

Another popular target should be catcher Chris Snyder. While he’s a good enough player to be part of Arizona’s future, they also have Miguel Montero as an option behind the plate, and having two good catchers is a bit redundant. Snyder’s contract isn’t so cheap as to be a huge bargain, but he’s underpaid relative to his value, and teams looking for a several year solution to their backstop problems could be interested.

On the pitching side of things, don’t be surprised if a contender with sabermetric leanings makes a run at Chad Qualls. With an 8.46 ERA, you’d think he’d been a total disaster, but his xFIP is a respectable 3.55, and he’s been one of the best relievers in the league the last few years. His .474 BABIP will regress, and he could be a quality bullpen piece for another team down the stretch. A free agent at the end of the year, you have to think that his days in Arizona are numbered whether he’s traded or not, so Arizona will likely be happy to move him. Don’t be surprised if he’s involved in a “change of scenery” trade.

On The Farm

The presence of Brandon Allen in Triple-A makes letting go of LaRoche easier. He’s probably not going to be a star, but he could fill the job at first base well enough and do so for the league minimum once the position is opened up. Most of the rest of the talent on the farm is further away, however, and the D’Backs probably won’t be able to plug their holes internally. Expect them to target close to the majors pitching help in nearly every deal they make.

Budget

The D’Backs will have some money to play with this winter, especially if they move guys with 2011 commitments this summer. They are on the hook for about $45 million in salary for next year and have some arbitration cases with players like Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, and Kelly Johnson that should push that number to closer to $60 million. But if they move Snyder and non-tender Conor Jackson, they’d be able to spend somewhere between $15 and $20 million while maintaining the 2010 budget number. Whether ownership will agree to spend that much again following a season where the team was a large disappointment remains to be seen.

As I was poking around at Stephen Strasburg’s most recent start in our pitchf/x pages, I noticed that MLBAM was classifying one of his pitches as a two-seam fastball, which I recall was not the case in his first start a week ago. So I went back to check his first start and low and behold, a number of his four-seamers had been reclassified to two-seamers (and a couple to curveballs changeups).

This correction seems to agree with the this note from J-Doug over at Beyond the Box Score:

*Note: Several commenters and analysts (such as Tim Kurkjian) have noted that Strasburg throws both a four-seamer and a two-seamer (or what Strasburg calls a ‘one-seamer’). This makes sense considering the break on his fastballs. However, MLBAM doesn’t yet have enough data (I assume) to separately classify these two pitches, so they both came through as four-seamers. I’m going to rely on MLBAM’s estimation for now, since that’s where the data came from, but feel free to read everything that is labeled “four-seamer” as just plain “fastball.”

And it also seems to match up pretty well with Nick Steiner’s own pitch classifications.

I don’t have anything in particular to note about the pitches that changed in classification, but it is important to note that pitchf/x data is retroactively updated as the pitch classifying algorithms are adjusted for each individual pitcher.

Little has gone right for the Chicago Cubs this season. The club’s starting pitchers boast the second-best xFIP in the National League and the defense isn’t too shabby, either (fifth in UZR). Unfortunately, those strong performances have gone to waste due to mediocre relief pitching (11th in the NL in xFIP) and offense (12th in wOBA). Even after last night’s 1-0 victory over the White Sox, the Cubs have a 28-35 record. At 7.5 games back of the division-leading Cardinals and eight games behind the Dodgers in the Wild Card chase, the Cubs have less than a seven percent shot of making the playoffs, according to CoolStandings.com. Yes, Lloyd, I’m telling you there’s a chance. It’s not looking good, though.

While there are many reasons as to why 2010 is shaping up to be yet another aggravating season in Wrigleyville, Marlon Byrd surely isn’t among them. The 32-year-old center fielder, inked to a three-year, $15 million deal over the off-season, is enjoying a career year.

Byrd’s batting .333/.375/.543, with a .400 wOBA that ranks in the top 20 among qualified big league hitters. He’s not walking (3.6 BB%) or whiffing (13.7 K%) much — he’s just racking up extra-base hits and getting some fortunate bounces on balls put in play. Byrd’s ISO is a career-high .209, while his .354 BABIP is 31 points higher than his expected BABIP and 29 points above his career BABIP in the majors. Defensively, Byrd has rated as average to slightly below average in center during his career. But he owns a +17.3 UZR/150 and +10 DRS in 2010. With three Wins Above Replacement, Byrd places seventh among all MLB position players. Not bad for a guy whose career has been on life support a couple of times over the years.

A Georgia prep star in baseball and football, Byrd attended Georgia Tech but suffered a devastating right leg injury — three procedures were performed on the leg, and at one point doctors considered amputation. He transferred to Georgia Perimeter Junior College, where his health and stock improved enough for the Phillies to pluck him in the 10th round of the 1999 draft.

Byrd emerged as a top prospect, cracking Baseball America’s top 100 list prior to the 2002 and 2003 seasons. He amassed 3.5 WAR rookie season in ’03, proving himself an asset at the plate (116 wRC+) and in the field (+5.1 UZR/150 in CF). At 25, Byrd looked poised to be a quality contributor for the Phightins for years to come.

But then he imploded. Byrd plummeted to -1.6 WAR in 2004, and followed that up with 0.9 WAR in part-time play during a 2005 season in which he was traded to the nascent Nationals. He split 2006 flailing in Washington (.294 wOBA, 0.4 WAR). But he hit fairly well in Triple-A (.369 wOBA). Byrd latched on with the Rangers prior to 2007, signing a minor league pact. After raking with the RedHawks to begin the year (.424 wOBA), Byrd was called up to the big leagues and proceeded to revive his career in Arlington.

From ’07 to 2009, Byrd was Mr. Average — he had 2.3 WAR per season, with a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA 14 percent above the norm (114 wRC+) but a glove that was a couple runs below average per 150 defensive games. CHONE had Byrd pegged for 2.6 WAR in 2010, a mark that he has already exceeded. Barring injury, he’ll easily surpass his rookie WAR total, too.

Odds are Byrd won’t remain one of the absolute best players in the majors. But ZiPS projects a .367 wOBA for the rest of the season. That, coupled with average D, would continue to make him a valuable starter. Byrd has taken a circuitous route to big league success, but he’s looking like a free agent coup for the Cubs.

“Average” is a word that contains negative connotations in our society. Nobody wants to be an average student. Nobody wants to be an average accountant. Nobody wants to be an average engineer, nor would they want an average mechanic fixing their car or an average carpenter building their house. Similarly, fans just don’t seem to get excited when they acquire an average or, even worse, below average player. Due to the limited supply of great or even good players, however, these players are absolutely necessary for a winning team. Let’s take a look at the distribution of talent as measured by WAR from last season. For simplicity’s sake, this discussion will be limited to the pool of position players.

The supply of above average players simply is nowhere near enough for every team. Even when we restrict ourselves to players receiving over 300 plate appearances, we still see 137 of 305 falling below average and 28 of those 137 below replacement level. Of course, given the technical definition of average, that’s not surprising at all.

The problem with below average players is that they’re typically not members of playoff teams. At least, this is the perception. We know that each team must start at least eight position players. All but four playoff teams since 2002 have had eight players reach 300 PAs, which means these players played a significant role . If average or below average players aren’t starters on playoff teams, we should expect the 8th best players on these teams, as defined by WAR per 600 plate appearances, to be above average players. Let’s take a look at these players.

The yellow line shows the mean for this sample, and the red line shows 2.0 WAR, or league average as defined by the statistic. Remarkably, the average for these 8th best players – regulars in many cases, important players at the very least – is 1.0 WAR per 600 plate appearances, or exactly 50% of league average. These players have been average or above 11 times; they have been below replacement.

There are few teams, if any at all, that wouldn’t benefit or wouldn’t benefit from the addition of a 1-1.5 WAR player, simply due to how many below replacement or marginal players have jobs. Of course, in some situations, the value of a player to one team is lower because of positional needs, but the data simply doesn’t support the notion of a below average player not deserving one of the 750 roster spots available in Major League Baseball. The next time you hear that your GM has picked up a player that projects as a 1-1.5 WAR player, don’t simply write him off as a guy to rot on the bench – he may be that last starter on the next playoff team.

If you’re the sort of baseball fan who’s worth his salt, you’re probably aware that, Saturday afternoon, 27-year-old rookie Daniel Nava of the Boston Red Sox hit a grand slam — not only in his first major league plate appearance, but on the very first pitch of his very first major league plate appearance.

If you’re also the sort of baseball fan who found himself reading FanGraphs back on January 21st of this year, you might remember an article I wrote singing Nava’s praises — not just for his climb out of baseballing obscurity, but also for the serviceable numbers he’d posted along the way.

As much as I enjoy saying “I told you so,” that’s not really the point of this dispatch. I mean, yeah, I did tell everybody so, but it wasn’t so much his future excellence I was predicting (nor his grand-slamming capabilities) as much as it was the potential for joy he represented to the baseball nerd.

Mission accomplished, so far as that goes.

Anyway, I’d like to use this space to discuss, very briefly, Nava’s slampiece. If you haven’t seen it already, watch it this very second.

The excellent things about this video, in order of best to still pretty great, are as follows:

1. Francona’s Reaction
Let’s be clear about this: I love my father. He’s done a lot for me and genuinely cares about me. Also, he taught me how to hit the sweet kick serve that is the calling card of the Cistulli Male. For that, I’ll always be in his debt. Thanks, Dad!

That said, were I to have been born fatherless, and were I — having been born fatherless — were I allowed to then choose from every American male between the ages, say, of 50 and 65, the one who I wanted to play the role of my father, I would choose Terry Francona.

For one thing, Francona is the God of the Post-Game Interview. I don’t have any specific moments to which I can point in support of this claim, so I’m just asking you to believe me: he is. For another thing, Francona emanates fatherly pride.

What you’ll notice about Francona in that video is the way in which — as Nava makes his way back to the dugout — the way in which he glows with paternal joy. Actually, even before Nava walks backs to the dugout, Francona is already kinda giddy. Then, as Nava approached the dugout, Francona definitely says something like “At’a boy” and then slaps Nava on the butt.

2. Nava’s Swing
Despite the fact that I’d previously championed Nava in these electronic pages, I’d done so only using the tools of the nerd (minor league numbers and equivalencies) combined with Nava’s obviously excellent backstory. What I didn’t know about is how awesome Daniel Nava’s swing is.

The main observation I have to make about it (i.e. Nava’s swing) comes in the form of a question to Joe Blanton. “Mr. Blanton,” my question begins, “between the way Nava kinda cocks the bat with his wrist, and also how straight he stands up in the batter’s box, why would you ever throw him a fastball on the inner half of the plate?”

Thanks to Pitch f/x and Brooks Baseball, we see that Blanton actually changed his approach between Nava’s plate appearances. Sort of.

First, here’s the first at-bat. It’s only one pitch:

Now, here’s the second:

I said “sort of” because, actually, Blanton first pitch in the second AB looks alot like the first pitch in the first AB. After that, though, as you can see, Blanton is basically going outside, outside, outside. And, in this case, it worked: Blanton K-ed Nava in the latter’s second PA.

3. Nerd Victory
Briefly, from that January article:

Despite the absence of anything like a draft pedigree, Nava posted an MLE of .274/.355/.407 across High-A and Double-A last year — that according to Minor League Splits. Baseball Prospectus rates his 124 Double-A ABs as a major league equivalent of .298/.374/.460 — the best in the Eastern League. The fact is that Nava has never played poorly, regardless of where he’s been.

What’s nice about those lines is how little they contain in the way of idle speculation. The the thing that nerds do best is use facts to suggest that so-and-so might be major league ready or that other so-and-so (ahem, Livan Hernandez) might currently be sporting a historically high strand rate that will soon see his ERA balloon. In other words, we the nerds prefer to utilize the sharpest tools in the proverbial shed, whatever they might be in the given situation. Nava’s numbers suggested that, despite his lack of general baseballing cred, he might be a serviceable ballplayer. Hurray for that.

The moral of the story is that any success Daniel Nava experiences is success for the whole of the human race. Is that completely overstating the case? Duh, of course. But on a sunny day in June, with the improbable surrounding us, hyperbole feels like the only reasonable mode of discourse.

Prior to this season, I held only a few memories regarding Sean Rodriguez. I had seen him play and never paid much attention to him. He was on another team, after all. I can safely say that I’ve seen a fair share of Rodriguez now, and I think he may just lay claim to the title in the header.

Rodriguez’s line entering Sunday wasn’t terribly impressive: .270/.308/.451 – or a .327 wOBA, a pinch over league average; he’d struck out in 34.4% of his at-bats and walked in only 3% of his plate appearances, so it should be no surprise that Rodriguez had more strikeouts (42) than hits (33) and probably will throughout the season. The knock on Rodriguez was always about his windmill ways…the strikeout

Yet contact doesn’t seem to be the biggest issue with Rodriguez when it comes to his strikeouts. He makes contact at a rate below league average, yes, but he’s also super passive. He swings at the first pitch at exactly league average rates, which has been sparked by a recent surge of first pitch swinging (his career rate is still 20%). Rodriguez has fallen behind 0-1 in 72 of his 133 plate appearances; that’s more than half the time, but even that number is deceiving because it doesn’t consider the 14 plate appearances where he put the ball into play. The reality of the situation is that Rodriguez has fallen behind in the count 0-1 more than 60% of the time, and it’s not because he’s swinging and missing.

Since we’ve already established that Rodriguez takes the first pitch 73% of the time, let’s find out how often he swings (and misses) on 0-0 and whether he finds himself equally passive in 0-1 counts. Of the 24 times Rodriguez has swung – not bunted, mind you – he made contact a little under 60% of the time. He’s not exactly Dustin Pedroia or Luis Castillo. Now, of those 72 0-1 pitches, Rodriguez has taken exactly 50%; a little under 20% of which were called strikes. That means he falls behind 0-2 without ever swinging the bat in roughly 70% of his plate appearances that don’t involve Rodriguez putting the ball in play on pitch number one. It’s only then that Rodriguez’s questionable contact skills become the issue with his strikeout rate.

Rodriguez has an OPS over 1.000 for the month of June, and, sure enough, of those 39 first pitches, he’s swung at 36% of them. Correlation does not equal causation, but one has to wonder if there’s something to the aforementioned numbers. Whether it is the pitchers began just lobbing strikes, or that he just became more comfortable with recording an out early in his at-bats.

Just that exercise alone makes Rodriguez captivating, but that’s not it. He’s fast. A lot faster than you’d expect someone who strikes out more than one-third of the time. He’s turned eight bunts into six hits this season and he’s added two infield hits, too. That means that eight of his 19 singles this year never left the infield. Combine that with a .180 ISO, which would, if he qualified, put him among such second baseman company as Rickie Weeks, Brandon Phillips, and Dustin Pedroia. His offensive package alone is unique; but that’s not enough since he also looks good defensively at second base.

Rodriguez’s total package makes him a speed-blessed, defensively-able middle infielder with pop and a strikeout rate over 30% caused not necessarily by his inability to make contact, but by his consistent inaction on first pitches.

How many of those exist?