Are you an NL Central fan? Did you just happen to go into a coma on May 21st? Don’t worry. You didn’t miss much.

Here are the NL Central standings on that date.

STL 25-18 —
CIN 24-18 0.5
CHN 19-24 6.0
PIT 18-24 6.5
MIL 16-26 8.5
HOU 15-27 9.5

Since then, each team has played no worse than 4-7 and no better than 7-5. Now, it’s June 4th, and the standings have hardly shifted.

STL 31-23 —
CIN 31-23 —
CHC 24-29 6.5
PIT 22-30 8.5
MIL 22-31 9.0
HOU 20-34 11.0

The Reds picked up a half game on the Cardinals to tie the division race, and the Pirates and Astros have fallen even farther back. Other than that, the situation is effectively identical to what it was two weeks ago.

This news is best for the Cardinals. They are the most talented team in the division, although there are some questions about their rotation now that Kyle Lohse is out for a while after having surgery on his right forearm. Still, the presence of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Yadier Molina, and the rest of the Cardinals lineup has to give them the upper hand for the rest of the season, and any rotation with a healthy Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter can only have so many questions.

The Reds certainly benefit from the stagnation of the rest of these teams, although it would’ve been the perfect time for them to put some distance between them and the Cardinals. The Reds pitching staff hasn’t been great, and they’re not a great defensive team, but they can hit. Joey Votto leads the NL with a .427 wOBA and Scott Rolen is having a remarkable late-career season with a .394 wOBA. As long as the bats stay as hot as they have been, the Reds will be contenders for the division, and even if the Cardinals start to pull away, they have put themselves in a fantastic position for the wild card.

This two week stretch may not look like it’s killed the rest of the division, but it has. When not one but two division foes build up a big lead, time is of the essence, and now instead of having 120 games to make up an early deficit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Houston now only have 108 games. Given the talent present on these rosters, particularly those in Houston and Pittsburgh, this stretch may even have been the nail in the coffin, as expecting poor teams to make up 6+ game gaps in only four months is unrealistic at best. Nothing is definitively over, at least, but the playoff odds for these teams are sitting in the low single digits at this point, and potentially reaching into the decimals.

Even if the “GB” column doesn’t show it, the last two weeks have done nothing but help the Cardinals and Reds. The NL Central is set up as a two team race now, with the loser having a great shot at the wild card. It should create some exciting games this September while the other four teams are forced to plan for the future.

Arizona

Best positional player: Ian Kinsler (2000 and 2001: Rounds 29 and 26, Picks 879 and 788). The surprising thing is that Kinsler isn’t even the best middle infielder drafted by a National League West team that didn’t sign.

Best pitcher: David Hernandez (2004: Round 34, Pick 1,016) leads a mediocre group.

Honorable mention: Hector Ambriz (2006: Round 5, Pick 147). Did sign and was a Rule 5 pick this past winter. He’s not all that interesting otherwise.

Colorado

Best positional player: Jody Gerut (1998: Round 2, Pick 71) signed and was traded three years to the day along with Josh Bard for Jacob Cruz.

Best pitcher: Jake Westbrook (1996: Round 1, Pick 21) did sign and was traded 16 months later to the Montreal Expos in a package for Mike Lansing. A few years later he would be involved in a deal (alongside Ted Lilly) for Hideki Irabu and then with Zach Day and Ricky Ledee for David Justice. He’s gotten around a bit.

Honorable mention: Micah Owings (2002: Round 2, Pick 50)

2010 draft connection: Chris Sale was the Rockies’ eighth round pick in 2007. Now he could be the first or second college arm off the board.

Los Angeles

Best positional player: Chase Utley (1997: Round 2, Pick 76). See what I meant by the Kinsler comment?

Best pitcher: David Price (2004: Round 19, Pick 568). Before Price went to Vanderbilt and became the toast of the college pitcher class in 2007.

Honorable mention: Doug Davis (1993: Round 31, Pick 858)

San Diego

They absolutely get their own list:

Todd Helton (1992: Round 2, Pick 55)
Troy Glaus (1994: Round 2, Pick 37)
Chad Cordero (2000: Round 26, Pick 769)
Mark Hendrickson (1993: Round 21, Pick 590)

2010 draft connections: Christian Colon was near signing with the Padres in 2007. After going to Cal State Fullerton he should be the first college shortstop off the board. The Pads also nabbed Tommy Toledo who underwent Tommy John surgery while at the University of Florida.

San Francisco

Best positional player: J.D. Drew (1994: Round 20, Pick 564)

Best pitcher: Brad Lidge (1995: Round 42, Pick 1,167)

Honorable mention: Barry Bonds (1982: Round 2, Pick 39). This goes against the active player rule, but hey, he’s not retired yet, right?

Los Angeles of Anaheim

Meet the megaton of getaways. Here’s a list:

Aaron Hill (2000: Round 7, Pick 200)
Bobby Crosby (1998: Round 34, Pick 1,021)
David Murphy (2000: Round 50, Pick 1,439)
Rich Hill (2001: Round 7, Pick 209)
Brian Matusz (2005: Round 4, Pick 133)
Buster Posey (2005: Round 50, Pick 1,496)

2010 draft connection: Matt Harvey (2007: Round 3, Pick 118), who went to the University of North Carolina and should be a first round pick.

Oakland

Best positional player: Justin Smoak (2005: Round: 16, Pick 491). Undoubtedly mentioned every time Smoak hits a homer against the Athletics.

Best pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon (2002: Round 40, Pick 1,208)

Honorable mention: Daniel Schlereth (2007: Round 8, Pick 270)

Seattle

Best positional player: Juan Pierre (1995, 1996: Rounds 30 and 48, Picks 818 and 1,406) was drafted twice by the M’s, although later in the second year which is counterintuitive, and signed neither time. He’d wind up in Colorado instead.

Best pitcher: Barry Zito (1996: Round 59, Pick 1,587). Undoubtedly mentioned every time Zito pitched a gem against Seattle throughout his Oakland career.

Honorable mention: Rich Harden (1999: Round 38, Pick 1,145)

Texas

Barry Zito is a nice fellow, I’m sure, but he’s not interesting enough to write about twice. Instead, let’s focus on the Rangers’ two 2010 draft ties.. In the 2007 draft the Rangers really went to work in the 16th round, selecting Anthony Ranaudo and Drew Pomeranz. For those living under a rock for the last several months, Ranaudo and Pomeranz are two of the top three or four college arms in this year’s draft and will go in the first round.

As of this writing, the leader in the clubhouse for today’s FanGraphs Stars of the Game for this afternoon’s Athletics/Red Sox game is closer Andrew Bailey, who recorded a six out save, coming in with runners on first and second, nobody out, in a two run game. Bailey posted a +.418 WPA for his efforts, more than doubling teammate Kurt Suzuki’s +.190 day despite his two home runs.

OK, so the reason that Bailey is ahead of Suzuki is likely because I’m the only one that had voted at the time, but Bailey’s performance is still noteworthy. The A’s were already deep into their bullpen, having already used Vin Mazzaro, Brad Ziegler, and Jerry Blevins due to the injury shortened start by Brett Anderson. With Blevins in trouble, and already having allowed a home run to Marco Scutaro, Oakland manager Bob Geren sprang into action, going to his closer with six long outs left to get.

The situation, runners on first and second, nobody out, and a two run lead, has a 4.16 leverage index. This is exactly the time that the manager should be calling on his closer. The Red Sox win probability was approaching 40%. The meat of the Red Sox lineup, in the form of Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, and David Ortiz, was coming up, in effect making the leverage higher than the 4.16 reported. If there is any time for the best pitcher to enter the game, it is that situation.

Bailey induced flyouts from Youkilis and Beltre and struck Ortiz out swinging. That inning alone reduced the Red Sox win probability from 39.3% to 8.8%. Bailey would then go out for the ninth to complete the save. He got into a little trouble, thanks to a solo home run from Bill Hall, but he managed to record the final six outs, adding another +.133 WPA. Overall, Bailey would end with a +.418 WPA, a game high.

The decision by Bob Geren to bring his best reliever into the game at the most important time in the game should be one that is seen more often. The closer, or relief ace, or whatever it is called, is useless if he remains in the bullpen as a lesser pitcher blows the lead. Today, Geren decided to use Andrew Bailey when it mattered, and he was rewarded with a victory.

Cliff Lee spent the first month of the season on the disabled list, not making his season debut until April 30th. While most starting pitchers have already started 11 or 12 games this season, Lee has started just seven. And he still leads all American League pitchers in Wins Above Replacement.

211 batters faced, 4 walks. 71 percent of the pitches he has thrown have been strikes. 69 percent of the batters to step in against him have seen a first pitch strike. Since the start of the 2008 season, he’s walked just 1.4 batters per nine innings. No one in baseball has better command than Lee.

Unlike a lot of guys who pound the strike zone, Lee has swing and miss stuff. His fastball isn’t overpowering, but his change-up is devastating, his curveball is a knockout pitch, and everything is located perfectly. He lives in the strike zone, and yet, he’s still gotten a swinging strike on 8.9 percent of his pitches this year. He’s 9th in the American League in K/9, ahead of high powered strikeout machines Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.

If his season ended today, it would be only the fourth time in major league history that a pitcher had posted a K/BB ratio over 12 in a season with at least 50 innings. Dennis Eckersley did it twice (1989 and 1990), while Mariano Rivera did it in 2008, but of course, they both pitched out of the bullpen.

Inspired by the ridiculous performance Lee has had so far this year, I set out to try and find the best stretch of seven starts, using walks and strikeouts as the criteria, by other pitchers in recent memory. Here’s the best two that I came up with:

Curt Schilling, May 3rd to June 3rd, 2002: 52 IP, 2 BB, 70 K
Pedro Martinez, August 8th to September 9th, 2000: 51 IP, 3 BB, 64 K

Not surprisingly, those are two of the best pitching seasons in the history of the game. Lee’s numbers from this seven start stretch don’t quite match up, but that he’s even in the discussion is a testament to how well he’s pitching. While he might not have the track record of Johan Santana or the fastball of C.C. Sabathia, it’s hard to argue that there’s a better left-handed pitcher alive than Cliff Lee right now.

Armando Galarraga just pitched the most famous one-hitter of the decade. His disappointment was understandable, but even the blown call put him in a pretty exclusive group. Since 1920, there have been just 136 no-nos, and just 489 one-hit shutouts. This year, before last night, there were exactly three of each: Ubaldo Jimenez, Dallas Braden, and Roy Halladay all twirled no-hitters, and Matt Cain, Mat Latos, and Johnny Cueto all pitched one-hitters. Galarraga is the fourth.

Galarraga wasn’t the only one to have his no-no bid ruined by an infield single, either: Latos and Cueto were similarly both undone by infield singles to shortstop. But Cueto only took his no-hitter into the third inning, and Latos only took his into the sixth, so the level of scrutiny was nowhere near the same. (Cain gave up a double to deep right-center in the second inning, so he wasn’t quite as heartbroken.)

This has been a rather remarkable season: three no-hitters (two of them perfect games) and four one-hitters, in three of which the only hit was an infield single. The last year that there were this many combined no-hitters and one-hitters was 2007, with no-nos from Clay Buchholz, Justin Verlander, and Mark Buehrle, and one-hitters by Scott Baker, Dustin McGowan, Curt Schilling, and Felix Hernandez. The last time there were more than seven combined no-hitters and one-hitters was 2001, when there were three no-hitters (A.J. Burnett, Hideo Nomo, and the otherwise-forgotten Bud Smith) and eight one-hitters (Buehrle, Nomo, Mike Mussina, Kerry Wood, Mark Mulder, Jon Lieber, Randy Wolf, and Todd Ritchie).

The real challenge for Galarraga will be to keep pitching effectively, like Felix Hernandez, rather than turn back into a pumpkin, like Todd Ritchie. But he shouldn’t feel too bad about failing to join one of baseball’s elusive clubs. He already joined another.

A couple months ago we released the “Dashboard”, which gave you quick access to the stats that we thought were some of the most useful. Now you can build your very own!

If you’re logged in and go to the new settings page, you’ll be able to select which stats and the ordering (and separators), you’d like to see first on any of the player pages.

There are also two other options.

– If you don’t like the Dashboard at all, you now have the option to remove it completely.

– You can now hide minor league stats on major league players pages by default.

If you create a custom dashboard, but would like to remove it, just clear all your custom stats selections and it will be gone.

It’s worth noting that you are not limited to the number of stats you’d like to put in your custom dashboard, but space is a bit limited right now and it’s probably best if you keep them around 17 individual stats. Here’s an example of the one I’m currently using:

Please let us know if you encounter any problems (this is still considered a beta product) or if you have any suggestions.

6/3 Update: There was a bug that I accidentally introduced around 10am this morning. Everything should be working again.

For the sake of expediting this series (which will not be finished before the draft, if it was ever intended to), and because they have an identical positional adjustment, and because the lines are so often blurred between the two, I have opted to mesh together third base and second base in my first round analysis. This is a series that began with catchers and moved onto shortstops. It also behooves me to mention that the foundation of this study is the draft database at Baseball-Reference and the career WAR newly available here at FanGraphs.

From 1988-2002, just eight second baseman were drafted in the first round of the June Amateur Draft. Half would not reach the Majors, and Chris Burke looks to be a 2001 draft bust. However, the position has had success stories with Todd Walker, Chase Utley and Mike Fontenot, to obviously varying degrees. By comparison, over that same 15-year stretch, 29 third baseman were taken in the first round. Only seven players failed to reach the big leagues, however, another nine players produced less than 2 WAR, making them busts by our standards.

Between the two positions, 11 players didn’t reach the Majors: seven were from four-year institutions, and four from high school. The 10 big-league busts (-2.1 to +1.4 WAR) were evenly split between the high school and college demographics. And finally, of the 16 success stories, we have 10 players drafted from universities, and six from high school. Said another way, the college players were 10-for-22 (45.5%) in having big league success, while the high school players were 6-for-15 (40%). Here are those success stories, ranked by career WAR:

Name                 WAR     From
Manny Ramirez        71.0     HS
Robin Ventura        61.3      U
Chase Utley          41.5      U
Troy Glaus           36.1      U
David Wright         33.9     HS
Mark Teixeira        33.4      U
Eric Chavez          32.0     HS
Pat Burrell          21.2      U
Phil Nevin           18.1      U
Dmitri Young         16.3     HS
Todd Walker          11.6      U
Ed Sprague            6.6      U
Sean Burroughs        6.2     HS
Mike Fontenot         4.8      U
Mark Teahen           4.0      U
Shane Andrews         3.5     HS

I find this to be a very impressive group. You just don’t find very often in draft analysis any sample of 37 players, that almost a third would hit the double-digit mark in career WAR. This has been a highly successful position, ranging from Ventura and Sprague in the 1988 draft to Teixeira and Wright in the 2001 draft. Our goal in this series has been, and continues to be to search the numbers to see what separated the successes from the busts in the minor leagues.

And today, I don’t want to waste your time. I don’t think we can tell anything from a third baseman’s build entering the draft whether he will become a star or not. I think analyzing players by their statistics in A-ball is dangerous — only 4 of the “success” stories even played in Low-A, and you see a lot of variance in how players performed in High-A. It tells you something, but you still must be careful.

However, after a first round third baseman’s first prolonged stay in Double-A, you can with faith make a pretty good guess as to whether they will become a successful Major League hitter or not. (There are just not enough second baseman for me to include them in this part of the study.) The results are staggering. Of the 29 third baseman drafted in the first round from 1988-2002, twenty-five of them had Double-A experience. Twelve of them would produce at least 3.5 WAR in the Major Leagues. Thirteen of them would be busts by any rational standard. Here are the 25 players first tastes of Double-A, ranked by OPS (success stories in bold):

Name                PA     AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS
Troy Glaus         230     309     430     691    1122
David Wright       272     363     467     619    1086
Pat Burrell        498     333     438     631    1068
Eric Chavez        384     328     402     612    1014
Mark Teixeira      200     316     415     591    1006
Manny Ramirez      396     340     414     581     995
Mark Teahen        229     335     419     543     962
Phil Nevin         413     294     397     561     958
Chris Haas         531     274     382     488     870
Anthony Williams   446     309     383     469     852
Scott Stahoviak    393     272     375     462     837
Shane Andrews      512     260     352     457     809
Sean Burroughs     461     291     383     401     784
Mike Bell          533     267     329     442     771
Robin Ventura      559     278     403     361     764
Matt Whitney       531     268     356     404     760
Jorge Fabregas     444     289     338     411     749
Jason Romano       620     271     343     389     732
Scott Thorman      387     252     326     406     731
Tony Torcato       163     293     344     388     731
Jeff Liefer        524     238     302     422     724
Jake Gautreau      494     242     324     393     717
Dmitri Young       177     247     294     392     685
Mike Groppuso      411     241     314     370     684
Dan Cholowsky      254     217     340     325     665

A third of the players had a .900 OPS in Double-A. All of them produced at the Major League level, and everyone except Teahen has more than 15 WAR to their name. The players bashed at different ages, in different parks, in different leagues. But it didn’t matter. I looked back at even more data. In 30 years, we have had about 11 first round third baseman OPS .900 at Double-A, and all have produced at least 4 WAR at the big league level. The sample is still small, but I still find it significant.

And on the opposite end, only one player (D. Young) posted an OPS under .750 and went on to big league success. In just this 15-year sample, nine (of 13) busts did. If we look at the next few years, that group would be joined by Matt Moses, Brian Snyder and Eric Duncan. If you’re thinking this is bad news for the likes of Josh Vitters, Matt Dominguez, Lonnie Chisenhall and a few others — my thoughts exactly. And, even amidst some early season struggles in Triple-A, I do believe more than ever that Pedro Alvarez‘ bat will play in the Major Leagues.

I do want to stress that this should hardly serve as a steadfast rule — over .900 you’re a star, under .750 you’re a bust — but rather as a history lesson, and maybe a tool in the quickest-and-dirtiest analysis possible. I do think we can use this time to be reminded that we don’t really know a player until he sees Double-A, and his production at that level can be very telling as far as his future is concerned.

With clubs set to infuse more talent into their systems next week, and with being two months into the minor league season, it’s a great time to take a quick look at how the Top 10 prospects are doing in each system. Today, we’ll take a look at the American League Central. So far we’ve looked at the AL East and the NL East.

*The Top 10 lists originally appeared in FanGraphs’ Second Opinion fantasy guide published in March.

The Twins Top 10 list is a little thin on “can’t miss talent” but that’s what you get when you draft and sign a lot of high-risk, high-reward players. Hicks and Gibson are the cream of the crop in this system, while Ramos has turned himself into an interesting trading chip. Valencia has hit for a good batting average in triple-A but his power has dried up, which definitely hurts the value of a third base prospect. Benson was recently demoted from double-A to high-A but he’s still young so you definitely don’t want to give up on him.

The organization made a couple of aggressive promotional moves with its 2009 draft picks. Oliver’s assignment to double-A has proven fruitful, while Fields’ overly-aggressive assignment to high-A has not really panned out. I’m not sure why the club felt justified in skipping the raw 19-year-old with no pro experience over low-A… A number of prospects on this list have seen their values diminished by injuries: Crosby, Strieby, and Satterwhite.

On the cusp of a MLB promotion, Flowers’ bat has suddenly wilted under the pressure. Danks and Retherford are also struggling, but Hudson has rebounded from a slow start. Mitchell, the club’s top pick from ’09, will miss the entire season due to injury. Viciedo is hitting fairly well despite the lack of discipline at the plate and Morel was recently promoted to triple-A. All-in-all it’s been a bit of a disappointing season so far for the club’s top prospects.

The Indians club entered the year with one of the deepest systems, even though its Top 10 list is not oozing with “can’t miss talent.” Santana has not been fazed by triple-A and he should be in the Majors soon. White, like the Twins’ Kyle Gibson, has really moved quickly and looks like a great No. 1 draft choice. Chisenhall has performed OK but not great. Hagadone was recently promoted to double-A.

You don’t often hear this, but: It’s good to be the Kansas City Royals. The club has seen the biggest improvement amongst its Top 10 prospects… probably in the entire Major Leagues. Montgomery, Moustakas, and Hosmer have all taken big steps forward in their collective development. Duffy, who retired at the start of the season, has just returned to the club. Myers has looked good early on in low-A, and Lough has continued his ’09 success at triple-A in 2010. We can only hope Ka’aihue is used in a trade at some point this season.

No one in baseball this season has thrown the slider more frequently than Padres reliever Luke Gregerson. At 60 percent of his total pitches, Gregerson edges out the Cubs Carlos Marmol, but after that there aren’t any pitchers who have thrown the slider even 50 percent of the time. They both employ the pitch for good reason. Though they have thrown far fewer pitches than noted slider hurlers Colby Lewis, Anibal Sanchez, and Francisco Liriano, they rank third and fourth in the league in wSL.

Just last week Matthew examined Marmol’s insane strikeout rate, two batters per inning pitched. He also walks a ton, 5.40 per nine, and when hitters make contact they have produced good results, a .369 BABIP. Yet only four of 28 baserunners have come around to score. That’s where his strikeout rate comes into play. Runners reaching base is no big deal with Marmol on the mound. A few more sliders and he can set down the next hitter. The strikeout rate, in fact, is likely a large part of his insane 91.2 percent strand rate.

Though his strikeout rate isn’t Marmolian, Gregerson’s 10.05 per nine puts him near the top of the league. Where he really stands out, though, is in his control. A pitcher who throws sliders so frequently is bound to walk hitters, but not Gregerson. He has walked just two in 28.2 innings, a rate not only far superior to Marmol’s, but good enough for second in the league. Only the Cardinals Ryan Franklin has walked hitters at a lesser clip, just one in 24.1 innings. Though perhaps Cliff Lee’s four walks in 52.2 innings is a bit more impressive.

Looking back on R.J.’s article from last September, this isn’t exactly new for Gregerson. He was barely hittable then, and that has carried over into this season. Yet much has changed. He threw the slider 49.6 percent of the time last year, still a high mark, but not as frequent as this season’s 60 percent. The results have shown up in the batted ball data. Opponents have a .170 BABIP against him, and have managed a line drive rate of just 12.5 percent, both marks falling far below last year’s. While some of that might be luck, the slider plays a prominent role. It looks like hitters just can’t square up the slider, even if they know it’s coming.

When his slider isn’t working, Gregerson has little to work with. It appears that this has only happened twice this season. The first came in Gregerson’s first appearance of the season. Manager Bud Black said that Gregerson’s slider “didn’t look right” in that outing against the Diamondbacks, who allowed three hits and a walk in just a third of an inning. Then, in an appearance on May 14th, he hung a slider to Matt Kemp. That remains the only home run Gregerson has surrendered this year. It comes as little surprise that Gregerson struck out no hitters in those two appearances.

Whenever I see a pitcher who throws breaking pitches so frequently, I wonder about long-term health prospects. Can a pitcher possibly get by while twirling the ball more than every other pitch? Mike Wuertz, who threw sliders more frequently than any other pitcher last season, missed the first month of 2010 with shoulder tendinitis. Mitch Stetter, who threw over 60 percent sliders last year, hasn’t gotten hurt, but the Brewers optioned him to AAA after 3.2 horrible innings this year. Brad Lidge, who threw 56.2 percent sliders during his dominant 2008 season, spent time on the DL in 2009 and 2010. Bill Bray, who threw 50.9 percent sliders in 2008, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009. Kiko Calero, league leader in slider percentage in 2007, missed 121 days between the end of 2008 and 2009 with various shoulder injuries.

There are some survivors, of course. There always are. Marmol himself hasn’t missed time with an arm injury since 2006, and that was before he started throwing the slider 50 percent of the time. Wuertz has thrown more than 60 percent sliders in each of the past three years and this year was the first time he spent time on the major league DL with arm trouble. There seems to be some correlation in the anecdotes and the data, which does cause some concern for Gregerson’s future.

The Padres’ bullpen has benefitted greatly from Gregerson and his slider. The unit claims the NL trifecta of fewest walks, most strikeouts, and lowest batting average against. They’re getting help from everywhere, but Gregerson has been a particular bright spot this season. The high slider frequency does cause a little concern, but for right now it’s his nearly unhittable weapon. I can’t imagine being an opposing hitter and standing in to face him.