With the All-Star voting underway, the National League outfield would look a little interesting if we went solely by WAR going into yesterday’s action:

LF Josh Willingham
CF Andres Torres
RF Jason Heyward

While Willingham has had a solid major league career, and Jason Heyward is the Chosen One, seeing Andres Torres starting in center may be a shock for some people. The truth is that it should be. A fourth round draft pick in 1998, Torres was a known entity only in the minds of the most passionate fans before the 2009 season. By the end of the 2005 campaign, Torres had spent four fragmented seasons in the major leagues with Detroit and Texas. In his only consistent playing time in 2003, he hit .220/.263/.298, a wRC+ of a measly 45, nothing at all worthy of major league playing time. From 2002-2005, Andres contributed -1.0 WAR for his respective teams; needless to say, he was seen as a non-factor within baseball circles.

After the 2005 season, Torres went back to the minors and continued to struggle. In 2006, as a twenty-eight year old in Triple-A Rochester of the Twins organization, he hit .236/.333/.353 while striking out in 25% of his plate appearances. Torres returned to the Tigers organization in 2007, and since then has become a completely different player. After starting the ’07 season in Double-A Erie, Torres earned a promotion to Triple-A by putting up an .844 OPS. Although he posted a .366 wOBA in forty-two games for the Triple-A club, he was promptly released the following year, finding a home with the Cubs for the 2008 season.

At thirty years old in Triple-A, it seemed as though Torres’ peak was as a Quad-A player. However, Torres lit it up that year, hitting .306/.391/.501 while swiping 29 bases in 33 attempts. After playing just a handful of minor league games for the Giants in 2009, Torres got called up to the majors and slugged .533 with a .379 wOBA while playing solid defense, totaling 2.0 WAR in just 75 games. So far in 2010, Torres has had his best year in professional baseball at thirty-two years old, hitting .286/.375/.479, good for 2.0 WAR thanks to a UZR/150 of 42.7 in the outfield.

Although we know that late bloomers are a part of the game, Torres’ story makes his sudden arrival less surprising. From the San Jose Mercury News:

For much of his life, it looked as if Torres would one day be impressing on the track rather than the diamond. He was a high school sprint star in Puerto Rico, excelling in the 100- and 200-meter dashes and the 400 relay. Baseball was an afterthought until a scout handed him a business card during his senior year.

“It wasn’t like I was trying to be a pro,” Torres said. “I was a track guy. I’ve been made into a baseball player.”

Torres went to Miami-Dade Community College, where, by his own admission, he was “just a guy who could run and catch.” Those skills were sharp enough to get the attention of scouts, and he signed with Detroit after being drafted in the fourth round in 1998…

…There was just one problem: Torres still didn’t really know how to hit.

His speed got him to the big leagues with the Tigers in 2002, but it wasn’t until fellow Puerto Ricans Luis Alicea and Carlos Beltran pulled him aside that he realized how much he had left to learn.

“They told me I wasn’t loading with my hands at all, and I had no idea,” Torres said. “I didn’t care about hitting, but when I got called up, I realized there are a lot of things that I needed to do to stay (in the majors).”

A really incredible story, and the Giants have to be thrilled to have gotten the best out of Andres Torres. He probably won’t make the All-Star team, but his value for San Francisco has been above and beyond what anyone would have projected just two years ago.

After last night’s game in Detroit (and in Seattle, but that didn’t get as much press), I’d imagine the overwhelming majority of fans are now in favor of some sort of instant replay in Major League Baseball. The current four umpire setup isn’t sufficient to get the calls right often enough. MLB even admits this in the post-season, adding two additional umpires to help try to ensure greater accuracy.

So, the real question is how to practically implement it. I’m not a big fan of the NFL’s system, where the onus is on the coaching staff to challenge a call and then the official has to leave the field in order to look at a monitor. I don’t want Tony LaRussa throwing flags on the field, and then Jim Joyce wandering into a tunnel somewhere for a few minutes. There has to be a better way.

The best suggestion seems to be to just add a fifth umpire to each crew and station him in front of a bank of television monitors. He could communicate with the rest of the crew by earpiece, and would have the power to overturn the call on the field. For situations like last night’s game in Detroit, the fix would be remarkably easy and take less than 30 seconds. Joyce calls Donald safe, the replay ump simply informs him that he was conclusively out, and the crew chief changes the call.

It gets a bit stickier in other situations, however, and this is where it would take some good planning to figure out what to do. There are quite a few plays where the reaction of the players on the field about what to do is based on a call on the field by the umpire. If a ball is ruled foul, the runners stop and return to their base. So, it’s not as simple as simply ruling the ball fair, because then you would have to figure out where the runners would have gotten had the call initially been right. I’m not sure there’s a good fix for this, so I’d probably lean towards having the replay umpire not be involved with fair/foul calls.

The replay umpire would be most useful on safe/out calls and on home run reviews, so I’d start there. Just give them authority to make the call in those situations. We’ll figure out fair/foul and balls/strikes at a later date. For now, though, a fifth umpire taking advantage of the technology we have seems like a no-brainer.

Rich Harden’s major league career has come to be defined by short bursts of dominant pitching, followed by lengthy stints on the DL. The slightly-built right-hander has well over one punch out per inning during his major league tenure and his career xFIP sits at 3.89. But sadly, shoulder, oblique, back and elbow ailments have kept him from shutting down hitters for a sustained period of time.

This past off-season, the Chicago Cubs showed little interest in retaining Harden’s services after a 2009 season in which he posted rates of 10.91 K/9, 4.28 BB/9 and a 3.70 xFIP in 141 innings pitched. His campaign was, you guessed it, injury-plagued — Harden was sidelined with a back strain in May and was shut down in September with shoulder fatigue. Rather than risking a salary arbitration offer to the Type B free agent (and gaining a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds of the draft if he declined and signed elsewhere), the Cubs declined to offer arbitration, feeling Harden would accept and get a raise from his $7 million salary in ’09.

Harden inked a one-year, $7.5 million deal with the Texas Rangers, with an $11 million mutual option for the 2011 season. Harden’s pact includes performance bonuses: he gets half a million each for reaching 155, 165, 175, 185 and 195 frames. So far, Harden has tossed 54 innings for Texas. While he’s usually either unavailable or awesome, the 28-year-old has just plain been awful thus far.

With 8.17 K/9 (his lowest mark since 2004) and a career-worst 6.17 BB/9, Harden owns a 5.77 xFIP. That puts him in the same sordid company as Brian Burres and Oliver Perez. Harden has been as valuable as a readily available Triple-A talent, coming in at exactly replacement level.

The decline in Harden’s plate discipline stats is shocking. While one would expect him to post a somewhat higher contact rate and a lower whiff rate by virtue of moving from the Senior Circuit back to the DH league, Harden hasn’t been anywhere near as dominant. Over the 2008-2009 seasons, Harden had a sub-70 percent contact rate and a 15-plus percent swinging strike rate. With Texas, he’s allowing contact 83 percent and is garnering swinging strikes just 7.4 percent. For comparison, the average MLB contact rate is 80-81 percent and the average swinging strike rate is between 8-9 percent.

Harden has seen an across-the-board dip in whiff rate on his pitches. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, opponents whiffed at Harden’s four-seam fastball 10.2 percent of the time in 2009 (six percent MLB average). This year, the four-seamer is getting whiffs 6.5 percent. Harden’s heat is also down in velocity (92.2 MPH in ’09, 91.1 MPH this season), though the radar gun readings are creeping up:

His slider made hitters come up empty 22.4 percent in ’09 (13.6 percent MLB average). In 2010, his the pitch (down from 84 MPH to 82 MPH) has an 8.1 percent whiff rate. Harden’s changeup induced a whiff 22.7 percent last season, crushing the 12.6 percent major league average. As a Ranger, Harden’s getting whiffs on 8.2 percent of his changeups (his velocity with the pitch is basically unchanged).

In addition to not missing near as much lumber, Harden’s control has suffered: his first pitch strike percentage is 52.8, compared to 55-56 percent in 2008-2009 and the 58 percent MLB average. According to Baseball-Reference, Harden has allowed the hitter to get ahead in the count in 39.8 percent of plate appearances, while the 2010 AL average is 36.2 percent.

Given his checkered injury history, it seems fair to wonder if Harden is healthy. Perhaps he will starting rolling soon, but he has experienced precipitous declines in his ability to fool batters and hit his spots. Right now, Harden isn’t near the same high-octane pitcher who laid waste to hitters as a member of the A’s and Cubs.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool.

Of course Ken Griffey Jr. is going to be a Hall of Famer. He’s going to be a first ballot hall of famer at that, and deservedly so. “The Kid” was among the best in Major League Baseball throughout the 1990s, putting up one of the best decades that the game has ever seen.

Griffey broke into the bigs at age 19 and never looked back. He posted a ridiculous 7.1 WAR before he could legally drink. By then, he was a legitimate MVP candidate year in and year out. From 1990-2000, Griffey hit 382 home runs (including four league leads), compiled a line of .302/.384/.581 and was 69 runs above average in center field, according to TotalZone.

His 1996 and 1997 seasons are both among the great individual performances in major league history. In 1996, Griffey was the original Franklin Gutierrez, posting a ridiculous +32 TotalZone in Center Field. He would supplement that mark at the plate with a .303/.392/.628 line, good for a .427 wOBA. The overall result was one of the few 10 WAR seasons of the decade, coming in at 10.2 WAR. He nearly managed it twice in a row, as in 1997 he nearly duplicated his 1996 hitting line with a 56 HR, .304/.382/.646, .424 wOBA season. The fielding numbers weren’t quite there, but were still fantastic at +15, leading to a 9.4 WAR year.

He would end the decade with a staggering 68.7 WAR, already the level of a hall of fame lock. That also includes nearly a full season lost to the strike of 1994 and 1995. In the shortened ’94 season, Griffey had accrued 7.2 WAR in only 111 games, and his .442 wOBA would become his career high. 1995 wasn’t as kind, but Griffey still put up 3.6 WAR in 72 games despite a decade-low .260 BABIP.

In 2000, Griffey was traded to the Cincinnati Reds, where his first season would be his only good one. He put up 5.8 wins that year on the heels of a standard Griffey .271/.387/.556 line. He played in 145 games that season, a mark that he would never reach again. From 2002-2004, he would be held below 100 games, and his fielding started to go, as he combined for a terrible -27 UZR in these three seasons. 2005 would be his last productive season, as he hit like Griffey, with a .397 wOBA, but his -19 UZR set him back to only 3.3 WAR. With his legs shot, his BABIP fell dramatically, and as such his hitting soon dropped to the point where his completely absent defense resulted in a replacement level player. He would languish on the rosters of the Cincinnati Reds, Chicago White Sox, and Seattle Mariners for the next few seasons, but the Griffey of old was gone.

I don’t think anything quite sums up both the greatness and the disappointment of Ken Griffey Jr’s career as this graph (click to enlarge):

Through age 31, he was right in line with Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, and Willie Mays – three of the best outfielders to play the game. Unfortunately, a rash of injuries just simply wouldn’t let Griffey quite reach the level that those three did.

Of course, we can wonder for ages about what would have happened. Despite all the misfortunes, Griffey still ended with a fantastic career and a guaranteed spot in the Hall of Fame. Ken Griffey Jr’s prime was one of the best that baseball has ever seen, and one which should be celebrated. His impact on the game of baseball was profound, and I can safely say that he was one of the best players that I have had the pleasure of watching.

Chicago

Best positional player: Adam Everett (1995: Round 4, Pick 91)

The Cubs’ unsigned pitcher selection pool is barren. Instead, I offer two players they signed, drafted, then quickly traded. First, Jon Garland (1997: Round 1, Pick 10). He was drafted on June 3, 1997 and traded on July 29, 1998 for Matt Karchner. Now, not to judge, but Matt Karchner was 31 years old, and had one season with 50 or more innings and a sub-4.5 FIP or 3 ERA to that date – yes, he was a reliever. Garland hadn’t pitched great in the minors that season. Mind you, he had a 5.03 ERA and a 1.56 SO/BB ratio in 107 innings, but the Cubs had just taken him in the top 10 of the draft. Couldn’t they find someone else at least slightly enamored of him and gotten a better return?

The second is Kyle Lohse (1996: Round 29, Pick 862) whom the Cubs drafted in 1996 and traded with Jason Ryan for Rick Aguillera and Scott Downs in 1999.

Cincinnati

Best positional player: Andy Tracy (1995: Round 28, Pick 783)

Best pitcher: Trevor Hoffman (1989: Round 11, Pick 290). Not only did Hoffman sign with the Reds, but he played for them through the 1992 season. It was at that point the Florida Marlins drafted Hoffman in the expansion draft.

Honorable mention: Jeremy Sowers (2001: Round 1, Pick 20). Notable because the Reds never intended to sign Sowers, instead opting for a supplemental pick the next year. It looks like a bad decision, not because Sowers is a maven, but because in doing so the Reds missed out on Jeremy Bonderman, David Wright, and John Rheinecker’s beard.

Houston

The Astros are actually a special case. They have not one connection to the top talents of the 2010 draft, not two, but three. Derek Dietrich, Chad Bettis, and Brett Eibner were all drafted and went unsigned. Now each may go in the top two rounds with at least one likely to go in the top 30. Houston’s farm system has been scorched ground for a while now, and while there’s no guarantee that any of those players turns into a legitimate prospect it certainly would’ve made their system look healthier.

Milwaukee

Best positional player: Jason Giambi (1989: Round 43, Pick 1,118). Drafted as a shortstop, Giambi would head to Long Beach State University and later the Oakland Athletics on his way to national prominence.

Best pitcher: Andrew Bailey (2005: Round 16, Pick 475). Did you know that with his last appearance – career number 89 – Bailey became Wagner College’s all-time leader in games pitched? Take that Al Severinsen.

Honorable mention: Kanekoa Texeira (2004: Round 31, Pick 916). Mostly because of his name and he’s in the news.

Pittsburgh

Best positional player: Stephen Drew (2001: Round 11, Pick 324). Didn’t sign and signability issues caused him to sink in the 2004 draft, too.

Best pitcher: Chris Young (2000: Round 3, Pick 89). Actually did sign with the Pirates, and was traded alongside Jon Searles in December of 2002 for Matt Herges. Hey, anytime you can flip a 23-year-old with strikeout-to-walk ratios of 3.6 and 4.00 in more than 200 minor league innings for an aging middle reliever, you have to do it, right?

Honorable mention: Willie Harris (1996: Round 28, Pick 816)

The blown call to end Armando Galarraga’s bid for a perfect game has, quite predictably, restarted debate on the topic of instant replay in Major League Baseball. Replay was introduced in 2008, but was limited to home runs. Here’s Commissioner Selig on the introduction of replay:

“I believe that the extraordinary technology that we now have merits the use of instant replay on a very limited basis,” Commissioner Selig said. “The system we have in place will ensure that the proper call is made on home run balls and will not cause a significant delay to the game.” (emphasis mine)

This is Selig’s justification for why instant replay couldn’t be used on plays like fair or foul calls on balls in play or on calls at bases, much like what happened with the play in tonight’s game. Selig has been very reluctant to implement instant replay in any form due to this fear of slowing down the game, which has manifested itself already this season.

Tonight may have been the final straw. In 2008, two missed calls on home runs in New York City in a very short time interval created the first frenzy about instant replay. Tonight’s debacle in Detroit has completely unleashed the powers of the press. At the time of this writing, about two and a half hours after the last pitch, here’s what some in the media are saying about the call.

Bill Simmons, ESPN: Silver lining: instant replay now a lock.
@PTIShow (Tony Kornheiser), ESPN: The lack of replay isn’t just unfair to Galarraga, it’s unfair to Joyce.
Keith Law, ESPN: I, for one, welcome our new replay overlords.
Henry Schulman, San Francisco Chronicle: OK, replay fans, I’m in.
Jayson Stark: WE NEED MORE REPLAY.
Christine Brennan, USA Today: Selig should go to instant replay — now.
Jeff Passan, Yahoo Sports: It’s the perfect time to expand instant replay.
Buster Olney, ESPN: This will become Exhibit A on why baseball should have already had broader use of instant replay.

This is only in the immediate aftermath of the game. Surely more pleas for instant replay will be coming from both the blogosphere and the mainstream media as the newsday begins anew on Thursday.

This is long overdue. The technology is too advanced for baseball to be subjected to the inadequacies inherent in human umpires. We’ve seen it in every major American sport (sorry, soccer) in some way, shape, or form, and it is almost unanimously supported. Eventually, it will set in. No matter how much we talk about the human element, what matters is the performance on the field. What matters is getting it right. Hopefully, the incoming media storm will be enough to convince Bud Selig of the very same.

A busy news day in baseball. As Ken Griffey Jr. announces his official retirement from baseball, a chapter is closed on baseball’s past. I hope that the blown call on Armando Galarraga’s perfect game attempt helps stimulate the mandate for more instant replay in baseball. If so, today could be seen as the opening of a new chapter in baseball’s future.

I spent my formative childhood years in and around Seattle. For better or worse, Griffey is what comes to my mind first when I think about the Mariners. Edgar Martinez was the better hitter and the consummate professional. Randy Johnson was electric in his own way on the field, but as a starting pitcher didn’t impact every game and he never had the force of personality that Griffey had.

Both of them were loved and even revered, but Griffey is the only player who I have ever seen stop concession sales. When he came up to bat in the 90s, people in line for a hot dog or beer would stop and watch the TV monitors. The lines stood still until the at bat was over.

The lines no longer stood still this season, but thankfully 2010 will eventually fade from memory. So many will remain. Griffey with his father in the clubhouse. Griffey hitting the warehouse in Baltimore. Griffey scoring the run in 1995. Griffey getting carried off the field in 2009. There are countless more.

The rational and calculating part of me is glad that Griffey has moved on. He was hurting the team on the field and that was too bad. On one hand, it is sad that it ends this way. On the other, I can confidently say that we saw every last drop of Junior that he could give us. There will be no wondering about what could have been with just one more year and in the end, I surprise myself by being almost happy that it does end that way.

So long, Griffey. I hope you stay around in some form or another and I will never, ever, forget your swing.

2010 has already been an incredible season, especially in the perfect game department. There had only been 18 in the history of baseball, but now we have witnessed three of them – first by Dallas Braden, then by Roy Halladay, and finally, tonight, Armando Galarraga joined the club.

27 up, 27 down. It’s an exclusive club for a reason: it’s almost impossible to do. You never know what might happen. A lucky bounce here or there, a blown call by an umpire…

Okay, fine, the record books won’t let us pretend that the Travesty of Jim Joyce didn’t happen. The man blew a pretty easy call that cost Galarraga his spot in history. There’s simply no defending him. He screwed up, really badly, in the most important moment of his career.

He’s human. Humans make mistakes. And it’s why the strengths and weaknesses of one single man should never determine the outcome of such a play. There is no argument against instant replay. Any chance the purists had for a “sanctity of the game” argument just went out the window. Armando Galarraga threw a perfect game, but he won’t get credit for it because one umpire screwed up, when 30 seconds of watching a replay on a monitor would have allowed him to correct his call.

This is ridiculous. Replay. Now.

Until then, I suggest MLB invoke “the best interest of the game” and hold a joint press conference with Joyce where everyone involved admits that the call was wrong, and they simply overturn the call and officially credit Galarraga with a perfect game. I don’t care about precedent. This will never happen again. It’s the right thing to do.

Chicago

Best positional player: Placido Polanco (1993: Round 49, Pick 1,357) was part of the infamous Bud Smith for Scott Rolen package. Remember when Smith threw a no hitter?

Best pitcher: Jeff Weaver (1997: Round 2, Pick 62) needs to allow 15 more home runs to take the record for most homers allowed by a Fresno State pitcher in the majors. Otherwise, it doesn’t appear he’s going to catch many records, including those set by Dick Ruthven, like wins (22 away) or innings pitched (300 away).

Honorable mention: J.J. Putz (1995: Round 3, Pick 84) the division really was enamored with Putz, as we’ll see later.

Cleveland

The Indians are in the rare position of not really having a mentionable positional player who they failed to sign. Instead there was Luke Scott, who they traded for Jeriome Robertson, and Ryan Church, who was traded (with Maicer Izturis) for Scott Stewart.

Best pitcher: Tim Lincecum (2005: Round 42, Pick 1,261) does anyone really need to be notified as to why this (1) was mentioned; and (2) isn’t as bad of an indictment on the Indians.

Detroit

The Tigers have a boring draft history too with regards to non-signs.

Best pitcher: Matt Thornton (1995: Round 27, Pick 742)

Honorable mention: Kiko Calero (1994: Round 41, Pick 1,142)

2010 draft connection: Barrett Loux is the Texas A&M righty whom Keith Law had going in the 20s in his latest mock draft. The Tigers took Loux in the 24th round of the 2007 draft and obviously did not sign him.

Kansas City

Best positional player: Jacque Jones (1993: Round 31, Pick 861) accounts for 1,302 games out of the 2,117 by Kennesaw State University alumni. Willie Harris has another 806 of those. Kennesaw State isn’t quite the baseball hotbed you’d assume it would be.

Best pitcher: Matt Guerrier (1996: Round 33, Pick 979)

Honorable mention: Chris Sampson (1997: Round 41, Pick 1,231) they just don’t pick that many interesting players without signing them.

Minnesota

Best positional player: Jason Varitek (1993: Round 1, Pick 21) the most insane thing about this is that you know who pick 20 was? Torii Hunter. You know who made that pick? The Twins. They almost had two of the five or six best players in the first round with back-to-back picks in the 20s. Good drafting there.

Best pitcher: J.J. Putz (1998: Round 17, Pick 499)

Honorable mention: Adam Lind (2002: Round 8, Pick 242) fun fact: Jason Kubel and Lind both went to Highland High School, only halfway across the country apart. Okay, maybe that’s not all too fun after all.

Last night, the Houston Astros defeated the Washington Nationals in an 8-7 extra innings thriller. The hero for the Astros was first baseman Lance Berkman, who was 3-5 with 5 RBIs, including the walk-off two run single. As a result of that and other minor heroics, Berkman had an astronomical +.912 WPA. That WPA is the second highest mark this season from a hitter, only behind Jason Heyward’s +1.032 WPA performance on April 18th.

Berkman’s performance certainly wasn’t the best hitting performance of the season. He didn’t hit any home runs and made two outs. He still managed to put up, in terms of value to his team at the time of his plate appearances, one of the most valuable performances we’ve seen this season. Let’s break it down.

1st PA: 0-0, First inning, 0 out, 1_3. LI: 1.61

Berkman doubled off Nationals starter Craig Stammen, plating Michael Bourn and Jeff Keppinger. The run expectancy at this point in the inning was 1.81. Berkman plated two runs and the resulting run expectancy – 0 outs, runner on second – was still above one run at 1.08. This contribution started Berkman off at a +.110 WPA.

2nd PA: 3-0, Second inning, 1 out, 1__. LI: 0.59

In the second, Berkman flied out against Stammen. With the Astros up by three runs and an out already made in the inning, this at-bat did not have much of an impact on the Astros chances. Berkman received -0.14 WPA for this at bat, leaving him at +.096 after two PAs.

3rd PA: 4-0, Fourth inning, 2 out, ___. LI: 0.13

The game is looking like a yawner. The Astros have a comfortable lead in the fourth, and Berkman struck out to end a 1-2-3 inning. Any result other than a home run would have had a minimal impact on the game. Berkman’s strikeout only resulted in a -.003 WPA, leaving him with a total of +.093 after three PAs.

4th PA: 5-4, Sixth inning, 1 out, __3. LI: 1.43

The Nationals got to the Astros defense and starter Brett Myers in the top of the 5th inning, as they plated four runs behind a walk, two errors, a double, a fielder’s choice, and a sacrifice fly. Hunter Pence put the Astros ahead 5-4 in the fifth, but the Astros were looking for insurance runs in the sixth when Berkman came up for the fourth time. The speedy Michael Bourn was on third base, meaning that most balls in play would successfully drive in a run. Berkman did one better, grounding a single to left field, scoring Bourn and giving the Astros a late two-run lead. Berkman received a +.056 WPA credit for the hit, and would later take second on a wild pitch for a +.011 WPA credit, bringing his four PA total to +.160 for the game.

5th PA: 6-5, 8th inning, 1 out, 1__, LI: 0.67

The Astros continued to find creative ways to allow runs, as the Nationals scored a run on a HBP in the top of the 8th inning. Still, with one out, the lead, and nobody in scoring position, Berkman’s 5th plate appearance was a low leverage situation. He walked, but would be stranded at second base. The Astros were scoreless in the inning. His walk was worth a meager +.018 WPA, pushing his total to +.178.

Final PA: 6-7, 9th inning, 2 outs, 123, LI: 10.78

Here it is. Nothing else matters. If Berkman doesn’t come through here, the game ends. An extra base hit or a well placed single wins the game. A walk or a one-run hit gives the Astros another chance to win it in the 9th or at least sends the game to extras. The Nationals managed to take the lead in the top of the inning, thanks to back to back singles by Ian Desmond and Roger Bernadina. The Astros managed to load the bases after an error, a double, and an intentional walk. After a fielder’s choice resulted in the second out at home, Berkman came to the plate. He rapped a line drive to left field, and Cory Sullivan and Michael Bourn scored to end the game. Given that the situation was 10 times more important the the average situation, Berkman’s contribution here was huge. He received a +.734 WPA for the play, pushing his total up to +.912. Notably, it was only Nationals’ closer Matt Capps’s second blown save of the season in 19 chances. He had been pitching excellently, and his FIP still sits at a solid 3.15.

Berkman is one of the few bright spots on the Astros roster. His presence in the lineup means that days like this are possible, as he can carry this team on his shoulders. Last night’s game was fantastic for Berkman and the Astros alike, and it could wind up being the moment of the season for player and team alike.