Last season, the Milwaukee Brewers’ starting rotation consisted of Yovani Gallardo and “staff.” The club boasted a potent offensive attack, ranking third in the NL in wOBA and second in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs, but Milwaukee’s starting staff placed just 13th in xFIP. While there were many Bernie Brewer slides, Milwaukee finished the year with a disappointing 80-82 record due largely to the ineffectiveness of the non-Gallardo starters.

Over the winter, the Brewers sought to end those rotation woes by snagging a pair of lefties, Doug Davis and Randy Wolf, in free agency. Yet, even after yesterday’s 3-0 victory over the Mariners, the narrative for 2010 is much the same as it was last year. Milwaukee’s offense is second in the Senior Circuit in wOBA and paces the league in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs. But the starters are the bane of Bernie Brewer’s existence yet again — 12th in the NL in xFIP. At 34-41, the team sits 7.5 games back of the division-leading Reds and nine games behind the Mets for the Wild Card.

Davis tossed just 33.1 innings with Milwaukee this season (7.56 ERA, 4.49 xFIP) before being placed on the DL with pericarditis. Wolf, inked to a three-year, $29.75 million deal, has just been howling bad.

Anyone expecting the 33-year-old to repeat his 2009 season with the Dodgers was bound to be disappointed. Wolf posted a 3.23 ERA in 214.1 frames with L.A. last year, but his peripherals suggested he was the same low-four’s ERA pitcher on display in 2007 and 2008 — with 6.72 K/9 and 2.44 BB/9, his xFIP was 4.17. Heading into 2010, both CHONE and ZiPS expected that Wolf’s .257 BABIP would climb toward the .300 range, and his FIP would settle in around 4.20. CHONE and ZiPS valued the former Phillie, Dodger, Astro and Padres as a 2.2-2.3 WAR pitcher. The FANS were more optimistic, expecting Wolf to match his 2009 output with 3.0 WAR.

Instead of stabilizing Milwaukee’s rotation, Wolf has been the unit’s biggest offender. In his first 97 innings, he has -0.8 WAR, which ranks dead last among NL starters. He is striking out 5.29 batters per nine innings, the lowest mark of his career, while issuing 4.64 BB/9 — his highest rate of free passes handed out since 2006, when he was fresh off Tommy John surgery. Wolf’s 5.39 xFIP is worst among qualified NL starters.

From 2007-2009, Wolf induced swinging strikes 8.1 percent of the time (8.6% MLB average those years). This season, batters are coming up empty just 5.6 percent (8.3% MLB average). His contact rate, 82.4% from ’07 to ’09, is 86.5% (the MLB average has remained around 81%). Wolf’s not getting hitters to chase off the plate as much, either. His outside swing percentage was 24.3 percent from 2007-2009, with the MLB average ranging from 25% to 25.4%. In 2010, his O-Swing is down to 21.1% (28.4% MLB average).

On a per-pitch basis, Wolf’s fastball has gotten hammered. The upper-80’s offering was worth +1.01 runs per 100 pitches from 2007-2009. This year, the heater has a -1.41 runs/100 mark. Looking at Wolf’s Pitch F/X data from 2009 and 2010, he’s getting fewer whiffs, strikes, and swings. Last year, Wolf deceived batters to swing through his fastball 6.4 percent. This year, it’s 5.8 percent (the MLB average is around six). His strike percentage was 69.1 in ’09 and 65.8 in 2010 (62-64% MLB average). Batters swung at the fastball 49.2 percent last season, and 43 percent this season (45-46% MLB average).

Wolf’s hasn’t been terrible versus same-handed hitters, but he’s losing the zone against righties, and fooling fewer of them:

Wolf likely won’t be this bad all season long, but the Brewers clearly haven’t received the return they were expecting. There’s also the question of whether he’ll come close to justifying a $9.5 million salary in both 2011 and 2012. Manny Parra is intriguing, Chris Narveson hasn’t embarrassed himself, and Davis could resume his average innings-munching, but Milwaukee needs Wolf to turn it around. In terms of clearly above-average starters, Gallardo remains the lone wolf.

On Saturday, the Seattle Mariners acquired Russell Branyan in order to shore up their poor situation at first base. Branyan will replace Josh Wilson and Mike Sweeney, who played there the last three days as the Mariners took on the Milwaukee Brewers in interleague play. Given that the Mariners are currently 31-44 and 15 games out, the playoffs are a virtual impossibility – they just don’t have the talent to catch the Rangers.

The Mariners gave up Ezequiel Carrera and Juan Diaz. Carrera has a meager .318 SLG in AAA this season but has speed to burn and could become a fourth outfielder, possibily in the Joey Gathright mold. Diaz wasn’t among the Mariners’ top prospects entering the season. His .298/.349/.440 line may sound slightly impressive, especially at SS, but we have to remember that High Desert is among the easiest parks to hit in across all of professional baseball.

Basically, Carrera and Diaz don’t look to be valuable players in the Major Leagues, and the best case scenario for both appears to be as bench players in low contribution roles. Jack Zduriencik clearly didn’t view them as an important part of either the future or the present of the Seattle Mariners. There is also no question that Branyan is a major upgrade at first base. Branyan is projected for a .348 wOBA by ZiPS for the rest of the season and has a wOBA above .360 since 2007. Although he has a reputation as a poor fielder, much of that is based on his time spent at 3B. Over a short time at 1B, he has graded out as slightly above average, which is what would be expected out of a below average third baseman who doesn’t quite qualify as a butcher.

So far, the Mariners first basemen are at a collective .260 wOBA, 16 runs below average over 300 plate appearances. If Branyan picks up 300 plate appearances, he projects as a roughly average player (+4 bat, +2 glove, -6 position). Given that Mariners 1B have performed roughly 18 runs below average this season (-16 bat, +4 field, -6 position), the gain for the team could be around two wins.

The win gain we’re talking about here could be from 70 to 72, 76 to 78, or 65 to 67, depending on how pessimistic you are about this Mariners team. It raises the question: what are the value of extra wins to teams at the low end of the win curve? Do these movements in the 60 or 70 win marks matter at all for a franchise, especially to the point where talent, even marginal talent like Carrera and Diaz, should be dealt?

Jack Zduriencik surely believes so. As he told Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times,

But part of that development process is also winning games. We want our players to be able to experience winning games this year. And we’re trying to do what we can to give them what they need to get there.

This development, of course, is conveniently difficult, if not impossible, to quantify. There is also the more quantifiable benefit to present wins of revenue. I certainly believe there is a causal relationship between wins and revenue. Along those lines, Buster Olney suggests that local TV ratings may be a motivating factor for the deal.

The theory behind the Branyan trade – acquiring wins in a down season at a low cost in order to further development and, more importantly, increase revenues – appears solid. What it really depends on is if the Mariners’ evaluation of the prospects involved is correct. If, as the Mariners seem to think, Carrera and Diaz are nothing more than organizational depth, the trade is absolutely the right move, as the wins this season very well could increase potential payroll in seasons to come, and typically, that will mean more wins as well. If it turns out that one of these two prospects is a legitimate Major League talent, then trading that future value for a gain in this lost season is the incorrect move.

From what I’ve been able to figure out about these two prospects, their Major League potential is slim at best. Similarly, their ability to bring in future value in the form of prospects was also slim. Therefore, the present value that Branyan brings, potentially around two wins, is more than enough to justify this trade. It’s not the typical trade for a team in a selling position, and the idea of giving up any sort of prospect for wins in such a lost season will likely rub some people the wrong way. Valuing current wins for bad teams isn’t an exact science – at least, not that I know of – but I certainly believe that the value that Branyan gives to the Mariners is likely to outweigh the value that Carrera and Diaz would, even in their six years of team control, due to their poor prospect status. As such, I consider this trade a victory for the Mariners.

Overview

A torrid June has left the Mets within striking distance and pulled within a half game of first place for the first time since early May, which is pretty remarkable given their seven game deficit on May 21. The hot play has killed talks of Jerry Manuel’s pending release and even has some … well, Jon Heyman, thinking he deserves an extension.

Buy or Sell?

The reality is that the Mets don’t have a ton to sell that would’ve made sense from their perspective. They have morphed into buyers, and boy could they use some help. Luis Castillo has a .277 SLG, but he gets on base at a moderately acceptable rate. Jeff Francoeur is really quite poor; it’s not a matter of whether the Mets could find an upgrade over him, but whether they’ll even try. The good news is that Carlos Beltran is on his way back. Obviously Beltran’s performance might not be up to par immediately, which just makes the pending decision between Angel Pagan and Francoeur more important. It really is peculiar that Omar Minaya can craftily build a bullpen out of castoffs and filler on the cheap, and yet struggles to find suitable positional players at similarly low costs.

There are numerous rumors about Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona, too, although the Mets’ rotation hasn’t done too shoddy after Oliver Perez’s banishment.

On The Farm

Fernando Martinez’s star is dimming by the season. Jenrry Mejia is in the minors, where he belongs for now. Wilmer Flores, Jeurys Familia, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Juan Urbina represent some of the untapped rawness in the system. Brad Holt was recently demoted, which probably diminishes his value a bit. Ruben Tejada probably needs more time in the minors, but he could eventually be the starting second baseman here. If, that is, Reese Havens doesn’t take the job by then; Havens continues to hit and could force his way to the majors by season’s end, depending on just how aggressive the Mets are with him compared to their international signings. Jon Niese is also a popular name in trade rumors, although he may only project as a middle of the rotation starter.

Budget

It’s really hard to say. The Mets’ payroll is considerably lower than it was in 2009 or 2008, but the Wilpons may or may not have money issues, which complicates any kind of perspective addition.

The Red Sox’s disabled list is getting awfully cramped. Josh Beckett has surpassed a month on the table with a lower back strain; Jacoby Ellsbury will pass that plateau this week with fractured ribs; Jeremy Hermida has fractured ribs as well; Mike Lowell’s strained right hip has kept him down since earlier this week; and Jed Lowrie/Junichi Tazawa have missed the entire regular season .

Add at least one more name to the tally, as Dustin Pedroia was placed on the 15-day DL with a fracture in his left foot. Clearly this one hurts the most. Pedroia is one of the best players in baseball. Not only that, but he was in the midst of perhaps his finest season yet. The early timetable on his return suggests that he’ll miss quite a bit more than the 15 days, which leaves Boston in an uncomfortable position of having Bill Hall man second base while they search around for a potential replacement. As a matter of fact, Boston just acquired Eric Patterson via trade. And well, he’s not replacing Pedroia, and he may not even be able to suitably replace Hall.

As if matters couldn’t get any worse, Clay Buchholz left his start tonight against San Francisco after one inning on the hill. He suffered a leg injury on the basepaths, which prompted Boston to strain their bullpen. Buchholz grabbed his hamstring which may be the culprit and there’s no word on the severity, nor, obviously, on his status moving forward.

Boston has climbed back into the playoff hunt after a hellacious April, but those fortunes could turn once more if they continue encountering an injury bug with the vengeance of an angst-filled Cthulhu.

I have not been posting much lately and that is because my usual writing slot is the late night shift, a shift that does not do well with my recent fortnight of 4am west coast wakeups in order to be up and sprightly for World Cup soccer. I am not the world’s biggest soccer fan, not even close. I support my local team, but do not follow an adopted European team or anything.

I feel both a sort of kinship between being a soccer fan and being a baseball fan and at the same time a complete separation between the two. Soccer supporters are known for rowdiness while baseball fans have become a sedate bunch. Baseball offers an endless about of quantifiable information while soccer is all fluid. However, both sports seem to have boredom listed as their number one distraction. This despite the average baseball game has more game action than the average football game and despite soccer having that ever-running clock.

What it comes down, I think is that any sport seems boring unless you have some sort of interest in it, no matter the inherent quality of activity that is going on. Car racing is almost non-stop action, but I cannot stand watching it. Basketball has tons of scoring but I watch the final three minutes take 20 minutes to play and I’m cursing at the TV set for the teams to stop calling timeouts and just play. I know I am not alone and I know there are people out there literally 180 degrees different.

I think going from soccer neophyte to genuine soccer fan has made me consider what gets me, and possibly others, interested in a sport. I believe there is a tendency to end up entrenched in strong opinions about areas that we have little expertise in. A belief that opinions on matters should be formed instantly and then never changed. Sports radio might be to blame, or media in general, or thousands of possible influences.

Regardless, we should all strive to open ourselves up more. Not just reconsidering viewpoints that we didn’t agree with, but also to viewpoints that didn’t agree with us. Baseball is boring many people say. We don’t think so. We find endless avenues in this game to fascinate us. Next time somebody criticizes the sport, consider sharing what you love about it. What is it about baseball that gets you to watch every day?

The Toronto Blue Jays organization has received some attention recently for its strong catching depth throughout the minor leagues. The club’s division mate and hated rival – aka the New York Yankees organization – has some pretty impressive depth behind the dish, as well. Let’s compare the two systems in regards to this common area of strength.

Edit: Since first publishing the post, I’ve added J.R. Murphy to the analysis at the behest of Yankees fans. I originally chose to include just one catcher per organization per level. I chose to go with just Kyle Higashioka because Murphy has played more games at DH (19) than catcher (14). After re-thinking it, I’ve included both prospects, but it does not alter the conclusions of the article.

New York Yankees
The Yankees’ best hitting prospect is also the triple-A catcher: Jesus Montero. Despite all the hype, he has shown his human side at the plate this season with a triple-slash line of .235/.298/.378 in 230 at-bats. Montero’s also struck out more times in 2010 (48) than he did all of last year (47 times in 347 at-bats). However, he is just 20 years old and has also been focusing on improving his defense. Montero’s 30+ home run potential is still there, as is his ability to hit .280-.300.

Toronto Blue Jays
J.P. Arencibia is arguably the organization’s best hitting prospect (although you could also make a case for Brett Wallace or even Travis d’Arnaud, whom we’ll discuss in a moment). Arencibia got off to a bit of a slow start in 2010 and was also coming off of a poor triple-A showing in ’09. The 24-year-old has posted a 1.157 OPS with seven homers in June and has an overall triple-slash line of .289/.340/.566 in 242 at-bats. Arencibia has also improved significantly on defense since his college days to the point where many consider him an above-average defensive catcher.

Edge: Montero. If you want to toss a wrinkle into the argument, you could point out that Montero is not likely to remain behind the dish when he reaches the Majors. However, he’s still catching in triple-A, so he’s technically still a catcher until they pry the tools of ignorance away from him. Although Arencibia is the better all-around player, Montero’s offensive ceiling is much higher than the Toronto prospect’s.

New York Yankees
Austin Romine is working hard to show why some analysts consider him a better prospect than Montero (mainly due to his defensive value). I’m not 100% convinced in that way of thinking but you definitely have to see Romine as a special player. Just 21, he’s currently hitting .294/.360/.447 and 20 of his 67 hits have gone for doubles. He also has 39 RBI in 57 games. Romine’s brother Andrew plays in the Angels’ system and father Kevin played parts of seven seasons in the Majors.

Toronto Blue Jays
Brian Jeroloman, 25, has made the best of a difficult situation. The organization has Arencibia in triple-A and it wants the defensive whiz to play everyday so he’s stuck repeating double-A for a third year. He’s also coming off a terrible ’09 season in which he posted a .646 OPS. Always known for having a patient approach, the organization felt he was being too passive and letting too many good pitches go by. He’s made adjustments in ’10 and, while he’s still walking at a good clip, his new approach has worked wonders for his overall numbers: .300/.459/.494 in 160 at-bats.

Edge: Romine. Jeroloman’s defense was always good enough to make him a sure-fire MLB catcher, and now his offensive boost increases his value that much more… but Romine has proven to be a special player. He has shown skill both behind the plate and with a bat in his hand… and both his age and bloodlines give him a big boost in terms of value.

New York Yankees
This is the weak spot in the Yankees’ catching depth. The everyday catcher in Tampa has been Mitch Abeita, a 19th round draft pick out of the University of Nebraska in 2008. He has a 2010 triple-slash line of .244/.351/.314.

Toronto Blue Jays
Travis d’Arnaud’s numbers are not quite as impressive as they were earlier in the season, but the 21-year-old catcher has also battled some back issues (which sidelined him in May). Even so, the right-handed batter has a respectable triple-slash line of .276/.330/.436 in 163 at-bats. Even better, the organization has been impressed with his defense and on-field leadership. He could end up being the key to the Roy Halladay trade with Philly.

Edge: d’Arnaud. With apologies to Abeita, it’s not close at all. The Jays backstop projects to be an all-around, above-average backstop.

New York Yankees
Kyle Higashioka received an above-slot deal as a seventh-round pick out of a California high school in ’08 based on his solid defensive reputation and raw power potential. Not much has changed since then. Higashioka continues to show more on defense than offense and is currently hitting just .194/.277/.304 in 217 at-bats. He needs to learn to hit the ball the other way a little more consistently. By no means a lost cause, the University of California recruit is still just 20 years old and would just be finishing his sophomore year of college.

J.R. Murphy began the year in extended spring training before being moved up to low-A ball to play with Higashioka. The right-handed hitting catcher is currently producing a triple-slash line of .250/.299/.318 in 132 at-bats. Clearly, the offensive numbers are not that impressive right now but he has a lot of potential. The Yankees organization grabbed him out of a Florida high school with a second round pick in the ’09 draft. He’s spent 19 games as a DH and 14 games as a catcher this season. While behind the plate, Murphy has thrown out just 21% of base runners.

Toronto Blue Jays
Like Jeroloman, A.J. Jimenez has been stuck in the depth crunch. d’Arnaud’s presence in high-A is keeping Puerto Rico native in low-A ball for a second straight season. In ’09, Jimenez hit .263/.280/.356 in 278 at-bats. This year, the 20-year-old catcher is hitting .308/.356/.456 in 182 at-bats. He also has a career-high 39 RBI in 50 games. A ninth-round pick during the 2008 draft, Jimenez slid due to health concerns (there was a fear that he would have to undergo Tommy John surgery) but he’s been OK and has even thrown out 54% of base runners in ’10.

Edge: Jimenez. Again, don’t give up on Higashioka or Murphy… The Toronto catcher is just much further along in his development at this time. Jimenez has a good defensive reputation, is a solid athlete, and is turning into a respectable hitter who has made adjustments at the plate.

New York Yankees
Just 17 years old, Gary Sanchez has already put the baseball world on notice. The offensive-minded catcher is batting .353 with two homers through four Gulf Coast League games. He also has eight RBI. It’s easy to see why he was one of the top international free agents in 2009; he signed for $2.5 million and could end up being a steal.

Toronto Blue Jays
Carlos Perez has one of the highest ceilings of any catcher in short-season ball, which is saying a lot. He’s a solid defensive catcher and he has a great eye at the plate. The 19-year-old Venezuela native hit .291/.364/.433 during his state-side debut in ’09 and he’s hitting .360 with seven RBI and eight runs scored through six New York Penn League games in ’10.

Edge: Let’s call this one a draw. Sanchez may have a higher offensive ceiling, and could easily skyrocket up this chart within 12 months, but we also have 2+ years of very impressive data on Perez. The Yankees prospect is in his first pro season, so I’m admittedly being a little cautious (not to be confused with homer-ism).

Conclusion: Taking into consideration both depth and overall talent ceiling, I’d give the Jays organization a slight edge, as the club really does have solid prospects at five different levels, where the Yankees system tops out with three solid catching prospects at five levels. New York, though, does have two or the top three catching prospects. There really aren’t any true winners or losers in this; both organizations have enviable catching depth.

Top 10 NYY/TOR Catching Prospects:
1. Jesus Montero, New York
2. J.P. Arencibia, Toronto
3. Austin Romine, New York
4. Travis d’Arnaud, Toronto
5. A.J. Jimenez, Toronto
6/7. Gary Sanchez, New York/Carlos Perez, Toronto
8. Brian Jeroloman, Toronto
9. J.R. Murphy, New York
10. Kyle Higashioka, New York

*In fairness a small caveat applies: I am a Canadian and I have covered the Jays’ minor league system extensively for about seven years. I have tried to remain objective, so take that for what it’s worth…

While perusing the box scores a few weeks ago, I saw a starting pitcher for the Reds I didn’t recognize. Sam LeCure had just tossed a quality game against the Giants, completing six innings and allowing just one run on five hits. He had walked four and struck out only three, so it wasn’t exceptional, but the results were there, at least. Then I looked at the Giants’ side of the box and saw his opponent. Matt Cain pitched a complete game shutout. Tough luck, I guess.

As often happens when I run into a player, particularly a starting pitcher, with whom I’m not familiar, I started looking into LeCure. A fourth-round pick in 2005, he was never a heralded prospect. Turning to the Reds blogs, I found a nice write-up on LeCure at Redleg Nation, which brought to light an interesting fact. When the Reds drafted him in 2005 he hadn’t pitched for the Texas Longhorns since 2004 due to academic ineligibility. He was excellent while there, though, especially at keeping the ball inside the park. The Reds drafted him based on his stellar 2004 season and assigned him to their Rookie League team, where he tossed 41.1 pretty good innings.

Despite the academic ineligibility, from what I’ve read it sounds like LeCure knows what he’s doing on the mound. The Redleg Nation profile cited a John Sickels write-up, which they quoted as saying, “he has a good feel for pitching and can outthink hitters,” though that quote no longer exists on Sickels’s website. The profile on Redlegs Baseball echoes the sentiment, describing LeCure as, “one who has a great degree of ‘pitchability’ and an understanding of how to pitch.” In both spots, however, we get a less than flattering description of his stuff: a low-90s fastball, decent slider, decent changeup.

Overall, LeCure posted quality minor league numbers, though his walks at the higher levels were a bit high for a pitcher with his kind of stuff. Still, he had a 4.17 ERA (3.90 FIP) in AA in 2008, which he followed with a homer-less Arizona Fall League stint (2.20 FIP). In 2008, his results at AAA improved, a 3.42 ERA and 3.60 FIP. Still, even at 24 years old, the Reds did not promote him to AAA. He went there in 2009, and while his results, a 4.46 ERA and 17 home runs, weren’t encouraging, he did get his walks down to 2.8 per nine, which led to a 3.84 FIP. He lost the fifth starter competition this spring, but again pitched well at AAA, a 2.55 ERA and 3.04 FIP. That earned him the first pitching call-up from the minors.

LeCure’s debut went well. He threw six innings of two-run ball against the Astros, though he did walk four. The Reds’ offense handed him his first big-league win by scoring eight runs off of Wandy Rodriguez. It would be the last non-elite pitcher LeCure would face for quite a while. His next four starts pitted him against some of the best the league has to offer. Here are the pitchers he faced, and the results they achieved.

June 2 – Chris Carpenter: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
June 8 – Matt Cain: 9 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
June 13 – Zack Greinke: 9 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 12 K
June 19 – Felix Hernandez: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

In other words, even if LeCure had pitched well above his head he still stood little chance in these starts. He did make a valiant effort against Greinke, but he couldn’t get through the seventh and the bullpen put the game out of reach. It’s tough for any pitcher, never mind a rookie with fringy stuff, to do much of anything against this group.

Thankfully for him and his team, LeCure will draw a bit easier of an assignment on Saturday, Cleveland’s Justin Masterson. LeCure’s recent performances against AL teams haven’t helped his case. He has allowed nine runs in 12.2 innings in his last two starts against two weak offenses. Cleveland also features a well below average lineup, ranking 11th in the AL in runs per game. LeCure’s biggest benefit, however, should come from the offense. The Reds understandably managed just five runs in that brutal four-game run with LeCure on the mound. If his fortunes are going to change, this weekend could be a good start.

The first four starts of Stephen Strasburg’s career couldn’t have gone much better. His xFIP is a disgusting 1.36, and in just 25 innings of work, he’s amassed 1.2 WAR, which would extrapolate out to a +10 win season if he had started the year in the big leagues. And yet, you can’t realistically make a statistical case that Strasburg should make the all-star team this year. He just hasn’t pitched enough to overcome all the starters who have been performing well for their teams since opening day. He’s not even in the top 30 among NL starters in WAR right now.

But he should make the team anyway.

Despite Major League Baseball’s attempts to make it “count,” the All-Star Game just isn’t as interesting as it used to be. The game is a mid-season exhibition, and both players and fans treat it as such. It lost any remaining credibility as a contest in 2002, when the game ended in a tie. And perhaps the last great, organic moment at the ASG that wasn’t immediately ruined by a brutal speech from the commissioner was the Randy Johnson–John Kruk match-up in 1993.

Since it doesn’t really count, the game needs interesting stories, and there is no more interesting story in baseball right now that Stephen Strasburg. Attendance is way up when he pitches, and for good reason – he’s the best show going right now.

Really, who would you be more likely to watch pitch the 5th inning in Anaheim in two weeks – Strasburg or Matt Cain? Honestly, unless you’re a die-hard Giants fan, the answer is Strasburg for practically all of us.

No, he hasn’t earned it as much as Cain (or other pitchers) have. It won’t be fair to whatever pitcher gets left off the squad to make room for the guy with a handful of starts. I know that, and I’m still okay with him making the team, because having him in the game instantly makes it interesting again.

The all-star game is glorified theatre. There’s no more interesting actor than Strasburg. Put him on the big stage and make the game fun to watch again.

This is a continuation of my series reviewing the Futures Game rosters. Yesterday, we looked at the pitchers on the American squad. Now, we have the hitters they will face in Anaheim.

Chun Chen | C | Cleveland Indians | Age 21 | Low-A (Sally)
.314 AVG / .373 OBP / .539 SLG | 15 BB / 33 K | 215 PA

The Indians have been quiet players in the Asian market for awhile, but now they really have a symbol for the hard work in Chen. After two years in short-season ball, where Chen posted high walk rates and solid CS% numbers but little else, the Taiwanese is enjoying a very good full season debut. Chen has gap power and the defensive skills to stay behind the plate — given the positional adjustment that comes with, the Futures Game will be a nice coming-out-party for his prospect status.

Wilin Rosario | C | Colorado Rockies | Age 21 | Double-A (Texas)
.274 AVG / .328 OBP / .475 SLG | 13 BB / 42 K | 197 PA

Like Chen, no one questions Rosario’s ability to stay behind the plate — he’s posted a CS% above 40% in every season of his career. His offensive skills are still fairly raw, but he has some power in the bat, with the potential to hit about 15-20 home runs annually. Most likely, he’s a back-up catcher that provides the ability to hit lefties and provide some good defense.

Yonder Alonso | 1B/LF | Cincinnati Reds | Age 23 | AA/AAA
.245 AVG / .324 OBP / .368 SLG | 29 BB / 44 K | 293 PA

In my series on first-round picks, it was definitely clear that by the time Double-A rolls around, the good players usually separate themselves from the busts. This doesn’t bode well for Alonso, who has never posted an ISO above .194 at any level. Given his defensive limitations, his highly regarded prospect status is waning. He’s one I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Reds trade in a deadline deal.

Alex Liddi | 1B/3B | Seattle Mariners | Age 21 | Double-A (Southern)
.290 AVG / .359 OBP / .467 SLG | 24 BB / 64 K | 288 PA

After a .345/.411/.594 season in the bizarro world of High Desert (California League) last season, I thought Liddi might have an awful season in a tough West Tenn environment this year. But he’s held his own, and the reports are much better than the non-prospect tag I would have put on him when I saw the guy in 2007-2008. His road mark last year was .308/.351/.498, so he’s establishing himself as someone who will hit in that range. I look forward to see him in batting practice to see what projection might be left in that bat.

Brett Lawrie | 2B | Milwaukee Brewers | Age 20 | Double-A (Southern)
.300 AVG / .361 OBP / .497 SLG | 26 BB / 65 K | 319 PA

It seems like this was a season of many Low-A to Double-A aggressive assignments, and Lawrie is certainly handling his own in Huntsville. The question is never his bat and always his defense, and it will be a talking point in Anaheim, as he’s the only second baseman on this roster. Lawrie could stand to add a little more patience, but his overall hitting mechanics are very good for second base — the question is whether they’d be enough for left field.

Pedro Baez | 3B | Los Angeles Dodgers | Age 22 | High-A (California)
.277 AVG / .318 OBP / .398 SLG | 5 BB / 19 K | 89 PA

Probably the weirdest selection to the World roster, as Baez offers no great track record, prospect status, or even a unique country to add to the Countries Represented number. He’s a guy that has the potential to put on a show in batting practice, but he’s also a long-shot to make the big leagues. However, we don’t know a ton, because he’s been injured very often in his career.

Luis Jimenez | 3B | Los Angeles Angels | Age 22 | A- / A+
.303 AVG / .348 OBP / .488 SLG | 15 BB / 35 K | 268 PA

Another player coming off injury, as Jimenez missed the 2009 season after a breakout in the Pioneer League the previous season. It seems that he’s a third baseman in name only, and will face the one-win WAR negative adjustment that comes with a move to first base. He’s neither patient or powerful enough for that, so I don’t see a bright Major League future. He will be the hometown boy in Angel Stadium, however.

Pedro Ciriaco | SS | Arizona Diamondbacks | Age 24 | Triple-A (PCL)
.243 AVG / .264 OBP / .389 SLG | 7 BB / 37 K | 254 PA

Getting a roster together for the Futures Game is no easy team, as some teams will restrict a majority of their players, and in some places, you don’t have a lot of options. This is how someone like Ciriaco makes the team, as he isn’t the Future for the Arizona organization by any slice of the imagination. Hopefully the manager will realize this, and we’ll see the more exciting option (see below) for the majority of the game.

Hak-Ju Lee | SS | Chicago Cubs | Age 19 | Low-A (Midwest)
.271 AVG / .337 OBP / .340 SLG | 23 BB / 42 K | 279 PA

On this weak and relatively unexciting World offense, Lee is the one to watch. After a very slow start in his first 3 weeks, Lee is hitting .280/.355/.352 since April 26. His patience is a good sign, and Lee is already an excellent baserunner. His defense is flashy and exciting, but still mistake-prone. We’ll likely hear varying reports on his power potential, but he’ll be striving for average, if anything. This has been an excellent first half for the South Korean.

Ozzie Martinez | SS | Florida Marlins | Age 22 | Double-A (Southern)
.313 AVG / .408 OBP / .396 SLG | 39 BB / 33 K | 325 PA

He’s punchless, there’s no way around that. But Martinez has now bought into exercising patience at the plate, and when teamed with good contact skills, it leads to something like a .313 average and .408 on-base. The slugging isn’t ever going to come, and in Florida, neither is the shortstop position. He’s probably a utility infielder in the end, but there’s worse options out there for your vacant SS position.

Gorkys Hernandez | CF | Pittsburgh Pirates | Age 22 | Double-A (Eastern)
.250 AVG / .326 OBP / .320 SLG | 26 BB / 65 K | 291 PA

I feel like Hernandez has been around forever, but here he is, just 22 years old and in his second tour of Double-A. Hernandez is the pride and joy of the TotalZone defensive system, and it’s starting to seem more and more like his value might only lie there. The power isn’t coming, and he strikes out too much to sustain a high-and-empty batting average. He’s a fifth outfielder, and we’re starting to see that being traded twice wasn’t a coincidence.

Carlos Peguero | LF/RF | Seattle Mariners | Age 23 | Double-A (Southern)
.299 AVG / .388 OBP / .523 SLG | 32 BB / 83 K | 304 PA

Peguero going tit-for-tat with Mike Stanton for the minor league home run lead was fun in April, but it didn’t seem sustainable given his strikeout rate. His walk rate is commendable, and I think he might be able to hold down the strong side of a platoon some day. But it has to be mentioned that since May 3, Peguero has just six home runs and a .254/.359/.400 batting line. He should put on a batting practice show, however.

Francisco Peguero | CF/RF | SF Giants | Age 22 | High-A (California)
.276 AVG / .299 OBP / .427 SLG | 5 BB / 46 K | 235 PA

We’re getting late into this article, and it’s getting frustrating to continually portray pessimism with this roster. But I just can’t have a lot of faith in a guy with five walks in 235 plate appearances, and nine home runs in about 1,000 stateside plate appearances

Eury Perez | CF/RF | Washington Nationals | Age 20 | Low-A (Sally)
.257 AVG / .303 OBP / .308 SLG | 11 BB / 40 K | 240 PA

And for that matter, I’m beginning to think the U.S. vs. World structure of the Futures Game is getting stale. It’s probably time to break into American and National League teams, while still weighing diversity when choosing the rosters. Perez is just another guy that the American outfielders can play shallow, and a guy that left his patience in short-season ball.

Wilkin Ramirez | OF | Detroit Tigers | Age 24 | AA/AAA
.240 AVG / .303 OBP / .515 SLG | 24 BB / 97 K | 287 PA

A familiar face to the Futures Game, and a guy currently sporting a 1.203 career big league OPS (in 13 plate appearances). Ramirez is adding centerfield to his resume this year, so he’ll be a nice fourth outfielder option capable of playing all three spots. Ramirez strikes out too much to be a regular, but he has enough other skills to work in the Majors: power, a bit of patience, versatility, and, well, power.

Will be back on Monday with the world pitching staff, and hopefully, a rosier outlook.

It can’t be comfortable for a major leaguer to know that he plays the same position as one of his team’s top prospects. Will the team trade him? Bench him? Or will they, to the incumbent’s joy, trade the prospect for an upgrade at another position? This feeling has to grow intensity for a player who just won the position. That appears to be the case for Marlins first baseman Gaby Sanchez. With only 31 plate appearances previously, he’s still a rookie this season, and he’s the Marlins’ starting first baseman. Yet even before the season began he carried an ominous label: placeholder.

The label wasn’t exactly an indictment of Sanchez, per se. Instead, it was a nod to the Marlins’ consensus No. 2 prospect, Logan Morrison. After missing two months last season it was unlikely that he’d break camp with the team, but he seemed like a prime candidate for a mid-season promotion. While Sanchez, who the Marinls drafted 18 rounds ahead of Morrison in 2005, would start the season at first, chances are he’d be displaced at some point. But while Morrison did get a promotion this year, it was from AA to AAA, and not the majors. Sanchez is a big reason for that.

Last night Sanchez went 3 for 3 and hit his 17th double of the season. That raises his season triple slash to .307/.377/.484, a .380 wOBA, one point behind team leader Hanley Ramirez. He’s walking in nearly 10 percent of his plate appearances and is hitting the ball on a line nearly 20 percent of the time. On top of that he’s playing solid defense at first base, a 1.3 UZR in 553 defensive innings. He has made the idea of promotion Morrison to the majors an absurd one. How could the Marlins justify moving one of their three best hitters?

This performance from Sanchez should not come as much of a surprise. A fourth round pick in 2005, he has raked at nearly every minor league level. The only time his SLG fell below .475 was in 2007 when he struggled, just a little, in the class-A Florida State League, not exactly a hitter-friendly league. He followed that up by posting a .411 wOBA the next year in AA, which bought him a cup of coffee later in the season. The next year, at AAA, he posted a .378 wOBA and again racked up a few major league at-bats. It was clearly time for him to take on a more prominent role, and he has responded in kind.

Despite his solid performance to date, Sanchez seemingly can’t shake that placeholder tag. On June 10, when Sanchez was hitting .269/.324/.425 through 146 PA, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus reiterated his position on Morrison, saying that perhaps it’s time for Sanchez to “pass the torch.” Since then Sanchez has gone on a tear, hitting .444/.483/.704 in his last 61 PA. That includes 24 hits, seven of which have gone for extra bases. At the same time, Morrison has adjusted well to his promotion. He has gone 14 for 39 with two doubles and a home run in his last 10 games.

This is, of course, a favorable situation for the Marlins. They have one player performing at the major league level, and a top prospect right on his tail. They do have a few options defensively, too. Sanchez has played third base in the minors as recently as last season, when he played 41 games there. It’s not certain, though, that he can play there passably in the majors. The team is also playing Morrison in left field four days a week. That sets up the ideal scenario, in which Logan, Cameron Maybin, and Mike Stanton roam the outfield, with Chris Coghlan moving to second. Dan Uggla has one year remaining of arbitration, and considering his salary, $7.8 million this season, it seems likely that the Marlins will trade him, whether at the deadline or in the off-season.

Keeping Sanchez at first, then, appears to be the best situation for the Marlins. His solid performance to date affords the Marlins the flexibility they need. Chances are they’d trade Uggla and move Coghlan at some point anyway. The difference is that with Sanchez at first and Morrison in left, the Marlins are better positioned offensively. They need a lot of things to break their way, but if they get just a little lucky they could be in a good spot for 2011.