The New York Yankees are 9-6 in one-run games this season. That within itself is not overly remarkable. Assume the Yankees’ .634 winning percentage as their true talent level – i.e. the level of which we would expect them to play over a stretch of time – and over 15 games you’d expect them to win between nine and 10 of those games. No, the percentage of 9-6 is nothing special, it’s the sum of 9-6 at this point in the season that is.

The San Diego Padres boast a Major League-best 19-12 road record. The White Sox aren’t far off with a record of 18-12. At the bottom of the pole, the Cubs’ 12-21 and Jays’ 12-19 records are the worst in the bigs. What’s so interesting about the Yankees record is that they’ve only encountered 15 one-run games. Every other team – every single one – has more than 20 one-run games so far.

It’s not like the Yankees are playing a schedule against a bunch of markedly inferior squads, either. Baseball Prospectus’ Third Order Wins adjust for strength of schedule and have the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox all within a game of each other. After some early season thunderstorms and barnstorming alike, the Jays have faded but still have more Third Order wins than defeats. Expectedly, even Baltimore looks better when examined with strength of schedule in mind. New York is a strong squad heading for a playoff berth and potentially a division crown, but their sparse distribution of one run games doesn’t even match up with their best units in recent memory:

2009 – 103 W, 38 ORG
2004 – 101 W, 40 ORG
2003 – 101 W, 36 ORG
2002 – 103 W, 42 ORG
1998 – 114 W, 31 ORG

Expect more one-run games from the Yankees from here on out. If for no other reason than, well, they can’t really have fewer.

I find Livan Hernandez to be absolutely fascinating. Hernandez has put together a pretty mediocre career, with a 4.40 ERA and a nearly identical 4.42 FIP, but his career also spans 2800 innings and 15 seasons. He also has one of the more impressive streaks in baseball, as he has started at least 30 games every season since 1998. Somehow, he’s managed to keep latching on with teams, both contenders and bottom feeders, and he’s managed to put together seasons just good enough to earn a roster spot again the next year.

2010, however, has been different. Entering his 20th start of the season today against the Reds, Hernandez had posted a remarkable 3.27 ERA. His HR/FB rate of 5.8%, LOB% of 76.2%, and BABIP of .276 are all well on the favorable side of both his career averages and his recent performance, indicating that there’s a bit of luck involved here. Still, Hernandez has pitched pretty well, as he has limited walks (2.77 BB/9) while maintaining a similar strikeout rate (4.73 K/9) to prior seasons. He has also turned a few line drives into ground balls this season, but it’s hard to say how meaningful that is given the blurry line between batted ball types. FIP and tERA have Hernandez at 3.94 and 4.13 respectively, in a range of slightly above average to average. His xFIP of 4.70 is directly from his low HR/FB rate, but it also still suggests that Hernandez is a MLB-quality pitcher, not a replacement level scrub.

If any game was just asking for HR/FB regression for Hernandez, it was today’s start. He faced the Reds today in Great American Ballpark. The Reds have the second most home runs in the National League, in no small part due to their home field. StatCorner has the park factor for HRs in Cincinnati at 122 for right handed hitters and 135 for lefties – that’s essentially the definition of a bandbox. Of course, not all of the Reds’ prolific home run totals can be attributed to their park – we can’t forget the contributions of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce, among others in the Reds lineup.

Of course, Hernandez went out and had a start right in line with his fantastic season so far, as he threw a complete game, allowing only one run on seven hits while striking out five and walking none, undoubtedly partially thanks to the absence of Scott Rolen and Joey Votto from today’s lineup. The story for this game was similar to the story for the season – limit the walks, strike out just enough, and allow a ton of balls in the air but don’t let any leave the stadium. Fifteen of the 28 contacted balls against Hernandez went into the air, but the eight fly balls and seven line drives resulted in merely seven harmless singles. The Reds had all of four at-bats with runners in scoring position – scoring runs without walks or particularly power hitting is an incredibly difficult task.

Has Livan Hernandez discovered greatness at age 35? Of course not, but this is a legitimately good season that Hernandez has thrown together, and if nothing else, Hernandez’s longevity continues to be a baseball marvel. Today’s start was just the most recent example of Hernandez defying age. At this point, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he’s still filling the back ends of rotations in 2020.

And now, for the five guys who would require a team to eat more of their salary in order to trade them than any of the other players in baseball.

#5 – Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago

Remaining Commitments: 4 years, $72 million

Soriano has enjoyed a bounceback season, with his power returning as he’s looked healthy and still able to contribute. A lot of teams would gladly take him, if only he wasn’t paid $18 million per year through his age 38 season. Even for next year, the money isn’t that far off what he’ll produce on the field, but those last few years are going to be brutal. I’d estimate that the Cubs would have to agree to pay about $30 million of his remaining salary in order to move Soriano.

#4 – Barry Zito, P, San Francisco

Remaining Commitment: 3 years, $65 million

While Zito is certainly pitching better than he did in his first few years in San Francisco, most of his supposed improvement is a mirage. His ERA is 1.27 runs lower than his xFIP, and while he’s a guy who will post lower than average BABIPs, even he can’t sustain these kinds of results with how he’s pitching. He’s been able to get back to being a middle of the rotation innings eater, but he’s paid like an ace. The Giants would probably have to pick up between $30 and $35 million of his remaining deal in order to give him away.

#3 – Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia

Remaining Commitments: 6 years, $145 million (assuming buyout will be exercised)

Like Soriano, Howard isn’t a bad player. But oh, that contract. For the next couple of years, $20 million per year for the big slugging first baseman wasn’t totally out of line with what he could produce, but the extension that he was just given could easily go down as one of the worst in baseball history. He’s a nice player being paid like one of the game’s very best, and no other team in baseball would pony up that kind of money for a non-star first baseman heading into his decline years. If the Phillies were willing to swallow $40 million of the deal, they might get some takers, but of course, they’d never do that.

#2 – Vernon Wells, OF, Toronto

Remaining Commitments: 4 years, $84 million

A hot start to the season looked like Wells may try to redeem himself, but since April ended, he’s gone back to what he was the past three years – a below average player. His occasional home runs don’t offset the rest of the problems with his game, and it will only get worse as his power erodes in the age 32-35 seasons that the rest of his contract covers. His numbers and reputation would lead to some team being willing to take him if the Jays paid about $65 million of his remaining contract, but that’s a brutal pill to swallow.

#1 – Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York

Remaining Commitment: 7 years, $174 million

When he was in Texas, Rodriguez was seen as having the biggest albatross of a contract in baseball, even though he was actually worth the money he was being paid. Now, though, he actually is the most overpaid player in the game. Age and injuries have taken him from an elite player to a merely good one, and yet he’s the game’s highest paid superstar. Worse, he turns 35 next Tuesday, and yet he’s signed for another seven years with a minimum of $174 million coming his way. In reality, it will be more than that, as he has $6 million bonuses to be paid out for hitting 660, 700, and 714 home runs, and another $6 million each if he ties and breaks the all-time HR record. If he stays relatively healthy and plays the full seven years, he could collect an additional $30 million on top of the already too-high salaries he’s due. It’s hard to think of any team that would give him $100 million for his 35-41 seasons, much less twice that. The Yankees would probably have to agree to eat something in the neighborhood of $110 to $120 million in order to move Rodriguez. Yikes, indeed.

Ralph Houk died Wednesday, one of nine managers to win a World Series with the Yankees, along with Miller Huggins, Joe McCarthy, Bucky Harris, Casey Stengel, Billy Martin, Bob Lemon, Joe Torre, and Joe Girardi. He was the first manager ever to manage the Yankees to a World Championship after winning a ring with the team as a player, later joined by Martin and Girardi. (Yogi Berra’s backup catcher before the emergence of Elston Howard, Houk won six rings with the Yankees from 1947-1954. His three World Series appearances in the Yankee manager’s chair are more than all but Torre, Stengel, McCarthy, and Huggins.) In all, he spent nearly three decades in the team’s clubhouse from the 1940s to the 1970s, first as a bench player, and then as field marshal.

He is 15th all-time in managerial wins, and one of only 22 managers with more than one World Championship. He maintained a reputation as a tough but fair players’ manager, going by the nickname of “Major” because of the rank he earned in World War II. According to the New York Times obituary, one former third baseman of his, Clete Boyer, recounted his clubhouse attitude: “At his first meeting, Ralph said we knew how to play the game better than he did. So if we wanted to bunt, bunt. If we wanted to hit and run, then hit and run.” But he made an even bigger impression on another young third baseman, Bobby Cox, who followed Houk’s example as a Yankee bench player who rose to become a manager. “I loved Ralph… Ralph Houk was a big influence on me with how he treated people,” Cox told MLB.com. “Our personalities are both pretty tough.”

Houk’s reputation as a manager declined the longer he managed. After he won his World Championships in his first two years as a manager, he never won another championship in 18 years as a skipper. His influence on Cox seems to have been one of style rather than strategy: Houk was not a particularly influential tactician. Chris Jaffe, author of “Evaluating Baseball’s Managers,” points out what may be the two most noteworthy features of Houk’s managerial career: “He arguably had the greatest start to his career of any manager in history,” and “his relievers lasted longer per outing than anyone in baseball history.” By contrast, Cox, his protege, is up there with Tony La Russa as the manager whose relievers have the shortest, most specialized appearances.

In the last few years, when the great Yankees of the past were mentioned, Houk’s name was rarely mentioned. Yogi Berra has long held the title of “Greatest Living Yankee,” and Houk’s managerial successes — when they are remembered at all — have often been chalked up to Mantle and Maris, rather than the man at the helm. That may be unfair to the man. As Jaffe remarks, “He was well respected enough to manage 20 seasons without ever getting fired, an impressive achievement.” That is a remarkably bland compliment for a man who won eight World Series with a team, six as a player and two as a manager, but in the end, Houk left a bland affect on all but his teammates and players. As for them, they loved him fiercely, and they won a lot. Of course they did. They were Yankees.

Overview

The Yankees are currently 59-34, leading the AL East by 2.5 games. They have either been tied for the lead or held it since June 13, but that doesn’t mean that they lack weaknesses. In the rough and tumble AL East a couple of flaws can set a team a long way back.

Buy or Sell

While the Yankees might be vulnerable in some aspects, they’re pretty solid in terms of regulars. The team ranks second in the league in wOBA, and doesn’t have a position that would require an upgrade. They also have five solid-to-excellent starters and an elite closer. This leaves few areas for improvement.

The one semi-regular spot the Yanks could see fit to augment is center field, where Curtis Granderson has continued to falter against left-handed pitchers, producing a .250 wOBA in 97 PA against them. The Yankees do want to get him straightened out against lefties, but for this year a platoon partner will help further their championship goals. A versatile RHB outfielder like Cody Ross, who can take a corner while Brett Gardner slides into center, might help when facing lefties.

An upgrade at utility infielder could also be on the shopping list, since Ramiro Pena continues to be one of the lightest hitting in the business. He can pick it like anyone, as the Yankees commentators are fond of saying, but he produces almost nothing at the plate. At this time last year the Yankees acquired Jerry Hairston from the Reds, and they could see a similar player at the deadline this year.

In the first half the Yankees’ bullpen represented one of its weakest points. Outside of Mariano Rivera almost every reliever performed below expectations. While the team maintains faith in Joba Chamberlain as the primary setup man, that might need to change. Whether that means moving David Robertson into a more prominent role or bringing in someone from outside the organization, the relief corps figures to see a few changes in the next week and a half. The relief options are slim, of course, and most contenders could use a bullpen upgrade, so we might not see movement on this front. But it won’t be for a lack of trying.

The one other area the Yankees could upgrade is in the starting rotation. The Yanks like what they have for the most part, but they do have a few issues. Andy Pettitte is currently on the DL, and estimates for his return vary depending on whom you ask. Even if he is out for only another three weeks, the Yankees could still use another starter to supplement the rotation. Not only could they find someone better than Sergio Mitre to replace Pettitte, but after Pettitte’s return they could use the extra starter to help ease Phil Hughes’s workload. The 24-year-old hasn’t pitched more than 111 innings since 2006. He is currently at 106.

On the Farm

The Yanks have already tried to use their best minor league player, Jesus Montero, in a deal for Cliff Lee. That has fallen through, and GM Brian Cashman has said that there are no other options on the trade market that would tempt him to trade his 20-year-old AAA catcher.

After Montero the team’s best prospect is fellow catcher Austin Romine, but since the Yankees think he’s more likely to stick behind the plate they could be reluctant to trade him. They also have a number of arms with decent upsides, but few would bring back a big name in return. That works for the Yankees, since they’re not looking for a major player.

For the most part, the farm will be used to help supplement the bench and the bullpen in August.

Budget

Most observers don’t think that the Yankees have a real budget, even though they worked with the constraints of one this winter. Even last summer they had a chance to add payroll and declined. Cashman had worked out a deal for Mike Cameron, but Hal Steinbrenner nixed it because of the payroll the team would absorb. With a smaller base payroll for the 2010 season perhaps they’d be more open to adding salary. But, again, given the players they seek it shouldn’t be much of an issue.

Come talk baseball with Pat Andriola at noon.

By popular demand, here’s a follow-up to the Trade Value series – the guys on the other end of the spectrum. These guys have contracts that far outstrip their actual value, and if their current organizations wanted to ship them out, they would have to pick up a significant portion of the money they’re still owed in order to facilitate a trade. They are liabilities, not assets. We’ll do the bottom five today and then the top five later this afternoon. The higher up the list a player is, the more money his franchise would have to eat in order to get rid of him.

#10 – Aaron Rowand, CF, San Francisco

Remaining commitments (2011 and beyond): 2 years, $24 million

A colossal bust since joining the Giants in 2008, Rowand’s numbers have gotten even worse this year. He has been relegated to a part-time role, and yet the Giants still owe him $12 million per year for his age 33 and 34 seasons. The Giants would have to eat at least $15 million to move him and probably a bit more than that, though he may yet have something left to offer – the only real difference between his performance this year and the last two is his BABIP. He wouldn’t be the worst change of scenery candidate ever.

#9 – Carlos Zambrano, SP, Chicago

Remaining commitments: 2 years, $36 million

Big Z can still pitch. His 4.25 xFIP is almost exactly the same as it was last year. His ability to get people out hasn’t disappeared forever, but you’re still not going to get many people lining up to pay $18 million per year to a borderline crazy guy for the next two years. Even if he was a rational human being, he wouldn’t be worth his contract – toss in his well documented emotional breakdowns, and Zambrano is a guy that would be hard to give away. I’d imagine the Cubs will find a suitor for him, but they’re going to have to pick up most of that contract in order to make a deal happen.

#8 – Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado

Remaining Commitment: 3 years, $29 million

After re-working his deal this spring, Helton’s contract is a little bit strange. The Rockies were able to get him to defer money at a 3.5% interest rate for a few years to help them put a winner on the field this year, but it came at the cost of extending him through 2013, when he’ll be 39. Given the way he’s gone into the tank this year, you’d think Colorado would like to have a mulligan on that extension. He was a good player last year, so maybe he’ll find his power again and bounce back, but I don’t see any teams going for that experiment.

#7 – Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland

Remaining Commitment: 2 years, $29 million

Once one of the game’s premier first baseman, Hafner is now a mediocre DH. He still has a decent approach at the plate, but his power is mostly gone, and injuries have taken a toll on his body. He’s not a bad hitter, but he’s not appreciably better than what most teams could get from picking through the scraps at Triple-A, where at least they might find a guy with some upside. Hafner comes with none, but he does carry a nearly $15 million per year salary for the next two years.

#6 – Carlos Lee, OF, Houston

Remaining Commitment: 2 years, $37 million

Like Rowand, Lee isn’t as bad as his numbers suggest, as he’s being done in by a low BABIP. But you don’t exactly expect a 34-year-old, “big boned” guy to leg out many infield hits, and both his LD% and HR/FB% suggest he’s just not hitting the ball as hard as he used to. Given that he’s a bad defender, there’s not much left to like if the thump is gone for good. Hard to see any team paying more than a fraction of the $18.5 million per year he’s due over the next two years.

Remember when Fangraphs readers were asked to put in their player forecasts? Well…

In this competition, each Pro forecaster is put in his own league against 21 average forecasters (Joe). In order to make the apples-to-apples comparison, the Pro faced off against the same 21 average forecasters, from the same draft spot. So, when Marcel drafts first against Joe1 through Joe21 in the Marcel Draft1 league, then Chone also drafted first against Joe1 through Joe21 in the Chone Draft1 league. Each of the 22 Pro forecasters followed the same pattern. In addition to that, Marcel then drafted second against 21 new Joes (Joe22 through Joe42). And so on, and so on, and so on.

In the end, each Pro ended up in 22 leagues, each facing identical competition.

Where did these Joes come from? That was the fun part. Fangraphs asked their readers in the offseason for their forecasts. So, what I did was this: for each team, I took the 21 fans that provided the most number of forecasted players. For the Yankees, I’d have Reader1 through Reader21. For the Redsox, I’d have Reader22 through Reader42, and so on. I then randomly selected one fan for each of the 30 teams and called that collection of readers Joe1. Of the remaining readers, I repeated those steps, until I ended up with 21 Joes, from Joe1 to Joe21. I then put them into the competition as noted in the earlier paragraph.

I then did the same thing for Joe22 to Joe42: randomly selecting one fan from each team. In this way, I am able to mix-and-match 630 (21×30) fans’ picks into 21×22 collections (462 Joes).

This model, I believe, should represent a reasonable group of average Joes that you would find in a Fantasy League.

We now come to the results, as of the All-Star Game break:

fan points wins value fan
108 968 20 227 Chone
115 960 19 224 John Eric Hanson
105 921 18 218 Brad Null
118 967 17 203 Steamer
116 929 15 198 KFFL
299 917 15 192 Consensus
112 904 14 189 FantasyPros911
113 897 14 184 FeinSports.com
126 890 13 184 Bloomberg Sports
129 858 12 163 Wells Oliver
132 898 12 163 Fantistics
120 895 11 155 Razzball
127 859 9 143 Future of Fantasy
131 832 8 129 Fangraphs Community
217 841 6 115 Marcel
109 828 6 109 Chris Gehringer
102 801 6 100 Ask Rotoman
125 797 4 75 BigScoreSports
111 757 1 35 Fantasy Scope
106 751 0 32 CAIRO
130 689 2 29 Baseball Info Solutions

If you want more details, explanations, etc: Full Explanation & Results

R.A. Dickey is a 35-year-old, ligament-challenged right-hander who hasn’t cracked 90 MPH on the radar gun since he pitched for the University of Tennessee. His nomadic existence has taken him through five different organizations over the past five years. Up until two months ago, Dickey took his starting assignments in front of several thousand people in places like Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Pawtucket. But now the knuckleballer is pitching as well as anyone in the Mets’ rotation.

Like the fluttering pitch that has given him new life, Dickey’s career has been an exercise in unpredictability. Once a touted prospect who pitched for the 1996 U.S. Olympic team that won a bronze medal in Atlanta, Dickey was selected by the Texas Rangers with the 18th overall pick in the amateur draft that year. The Rangers offered the Volunteers’ ace $850,000 to sign on the dotted line. But that was before a team doctor glanced at the cover of Baseball America’s Olympic Preview issue and noticed Dickey’s arm hanging in a peculiar position. The doctor soon discovered that Dickey didn’t have a Ulnar Collateral Ligament in his elbow. The club’s bonus offer plummeted to $75,000, with Texas’ expectations for Dickey going from future rotation stabilizer to big league long shot.

Dickey did eventually reach the majors with the Rangers, logging 266 innings over the 2001-2006 seasons. His stuff was dime-a-dozen, though: a high-80’s fastball, an occasional fringy breaking ball, and a forkball he dubbed “The Thing.” He started toying with a knuckleball in 2005, and Texas gave him the chance to try it out as a starter at the beginning of the 2006 campaign. Six home runs later, Dickey had tossed his last major league frame with the team.

Since then, Dickey has drifted. In 2007 he signed with the Milwaukee Brewers and posted a nondescript 4.36 FIP at Triple-A Nashville. That winter, he latched on with the Minnesota Twins. But, as a guy not on the 40-man roster with the requisite time in pro ball, Dickey was eligible for the Rule V Draft and was snagged by the Seattle Mariners. The M’s eventually worked out a trade to keep his rights while being able to send him to the minors. Dickey ended up tossing 112 frames as a swing man for Seattle, with a 5.20 xFIP that was exactly replacement-level. He signed with the Twins again last season, posting a 4.90 xFIP and -0.1 WAR in 64.1 innings. Save for one start, all of that work came in relief.

When the Mets signed Dickey to a minor league deal this past December, he wasn’t counted on to do anything but help the Buffalo Bisons compete for International League glory. But with the flutter ball flummoxing Triple-A hitters (60.2 IP, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, and a 3.16 FIP) and Oliver Perez spontaneously combusting, Dickey got the call in mid-May. And, in 79 innings pitched, Robert Alan Dickey has a 3.78 xFIP that bests the likes of Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey. Who knew?

Dickey has struck out 6.15 batters per nine innings and walked 2.51 per nine, displaying strong ground ball tendencies to boot (54.3 GB%). According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Dickey’s throwing the knuckler for a strike about 65% of the time, while getting a whiff nearly 11 percent of the time that he throws the pitch, which helps explain how he has managed an 8.6% swinging strike rate- slightly higher than the 8.4% MLB average.

R.A.’s knuckleball is odd in a couple of ways. For one, he’s burning worms with the pitch. Per Pitch F/X data on Joe Lefkowitz’s site, Dickey’s ground ball rate with the knuckler is 53.5%. There obviously aren’t many other pitchers to whom we can compare that number, but Harry Pavlidis showed that the average ground ball rate with the pitch is about 37 percent. Dickey’s knuckleball is also strange because of its speed — Dickey has thrown the pitch anywhere from 63 MPH to 83 MPH:

For comparison, Tim Wakefield has a 16 MPH range in his knuckleball velocity (58 to 74 MPH). The vast majority of his knucklers sit in the mid-60’s.

Dickey’s mid-80’s fastball, which would be a BP pitch without the knuckleball, hasn’t been hit hard. Nobody’s whiffing at the offering (just 2.4%, while the MLB average is 5-6%), and opposing batters are slugging .469 when making contact with the pitch (.567 MLB average).

In just two months, Dickey has racked up 1.6 Wins Above Replacement for the Amazin’s. Not bad for a guy who shouldn’t be able to turn a door knob without pain, much less fool major league hitters.

In case you weren’t awake at 2:25 Eastern Time, when the Arizona Diamondbacks finally sealed their 14 inning, 4-3 victory against the New York Mets, you missed a thriller. Extra innings, five home runs, 1.1 scoreless innings from Oliver Perez, and an unfathomable eight scoreless innings from the historically awful Diamondbacks bullpen – this game had it all. Here are the top five moments of the game by leverage index. Click on the game graph below for the full statistical summary.

5: Augie Ojeda vs. Raul Valdez, bottom 9th. LI: 3.89

Ojeda had the chance to end the game in regulation, batting with a runner on second and two outs in a tie game against Valdez. Instead of delivering a single to end the game or a walk to continue the inning, Ojeda popped out to second, ending the inning and delivering a hellish round of extra innings to Mets fans in the Eastern Time Zone. The Diamondbacks’ win expectancy fell from 61.4% to 50.0% on this play.

4: Chris Snyder vs. Fernando Nieve, bottom 14th. LI: 4.27

With runners on first and second and one out, Chris Snyder came to bat against the seventh Mets pitcher, Fernando Nieve. Nieve lived up to his performance to date this season – a staggering -0.9 WAR in 38 relief appearances and one start – as Snyder singled, plating Justin Upton, who doubled to open the inning. Snyder’s single raised the Diamondbacks’ win expectancy from 71.7% to, obviously, 100%. The walk off hit turned out to only be the fourth biggest situation in the game, as the Diamondbacks had many other missed opportunities in extras before finally striking here.

3: Adam LaRoche vs. Raul Valdez, bottom 10th. LI: 4.45

Raul Valdez put in a pretty heroic effort for the Mets last night. Valdez, a 32 year old rookie, went three innings and struck out four, somehow making Jerry Manuel’s decision to avoid Francisco Rodriguez in a non-save situation at all costs look pretty good. Valdez was in a jam here against Adam LaRoche, but he managed to induce a flyout to left field with two on to end the inning. The Diamondbacks win expectancy fell from 61.8% to 50.0% – essentially the same situation as the inning prior.

2: Stephen Drew vs. Oliver Perez, bottom 12th. LI: 5.39

It’s not terribly surprising that the biggest jam that the Mets faced in extras came as a result of two Oliver Perez walks, even though one of them was intentional. The walks resulted in Stephen Drew’s bases loaded, one out at bat in the twelfth inning. Given the location of the first two pitches to Drew – both balls well out of the zone – some can certainly question his decision to swing at Perez’s third pitch.

Drew should have driven that pitch – an 86 MPH fastball which caught much of the plate – but instead he popped it up to third base. Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but that swing easily could’ve resulted in a base hit or a fly ball necessary to win the game. I certainly understand the decision to swing there, but it resulted in a drop in win expectancy from 83.9% to 66.5%

1. Adam LaRoche vs. Oliver Perez, bottom 12th. LI: 6.39

But Ollie wasn’t out of the woods yet. He still had to manage to get through another hitter without throwing four more balls – a tough task indeed for Perez. All joking aside, Perez was around the strike zone with all six of his pitches against LaRoche, who, after fouling two pitches off, flew out to left field to end the inning, reducing Arizona’s win expectancy from 66.5% to the ever familiar 50%.

It certainly wasn’t the best baseball game of the season or even the night, but there was plenty of drama to go around in this marathon game. Mets fans and D’Backs fans, enjoy a well-deserved nap today if you managed to stay up through the whole game.