This past March, the Minnesota Twins locked up Nick Blackburn with a four-year, $14 million contract. The deal covers the right-hander’s final pre-arbitration season in 2010, his three arbitration years and includes an $8 million option for 2014, Blackburn’s first season of free agent eligibility. Minnesota’s 29th round pick in the ’01 draft established himself as a solid rotation cog over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, using surgical command (1.81 BB/9) to compensate for a paltry punch out rate (4.4 K/9). His FIP over that period was 4.38, and his xFIP was 4.52. Blackburn managed 2.5 WAR in ’08, and improved to 3 WAR in ’09.

In 2010, CHONE (4.29 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 4.42 FIP) and ZiPS (4.21 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 4.65) expected more of the same from Blackburn. Instead, the 28-year-old has been battered for a 6.40 ERA in 97 innings. That’s the second-highest mark among qualified starters. Granted, Blackburn’s ERA does overstate the depth of his struggles — his BABIP is .324 (.314 career average), his rate of stranding base runners is 66.2% (69.9%) and his home run per fly ball rate is 14.8% (10.7%). But even so, his xFIP has ballooned to 5.14.

Blackburn’s already-low K rate has nosedived into Kirk Rueter-esque territory. He’s striking out just 3.15 batters per nine frames, by far the lowest among qualified starters (Aaron Cook is second, at 3.97 K/9). Nick’s swinging strike rate, 6.5% in 2008 and 5.4% in 2009, sits at an MLB-low 2.9% (Rodrigo Lopez is next, at four percent; the MLB average is 8-9%). His overall contact rate has spiked, from 86.7% in ’08 and 88.1% in ’09 to an MLB-high 93.7% this season (81% MLB average). In addition to missing even fewer bats, Blackburn has issued more walks — his BB/9 total is 2.51.

The scuffling Twins starter is still putting plenty of pitches within the strike zone:

When Blackburn does throw one off the plate, however, batters aren’t chasing near as much:

What has changed for Blackburn? Let’s take a look at his Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com over the past three seasons. First, here’s his pitch selection and performance in 2008 and 2009:

And now, 2010. I included a “difference” column for strike, swing, and whiff rate, comparing Blackburn’s performance in 2010 to 2008 and 2009. Blue indicates an increase compared to 2008-2009, while red indicates a decline:

Blackburn’s using his fastball and changeup more often, at the expense of cutters and curveballs. He throws a ton of strikes with the fastball, but the whiff rate is abysmal. Blackburn’s inducing fewer whiffs on all his pitches, and keep in mind those ’08-’09 rates were already extremely low. When he does go to his cutter, curve or change, Blackburn’s getting fewer strikes.

In 2008 and 2009, Blackburn was an average starter because of his fantastic walk rate. But, with more free passes and even fewer K’s, he has been a replacement-level arm in 2010. A guy like Blackburn has little margin for error — he’s a ground ball pitcher (48 GB% this season), but not a Tim Hudson-like worm burner, so any decline in his K/BB ratio is going to do serious harm. If Blackburn’s going to be a two to three win pitcher moving forward, he’s going to have to return his strikeout and walk rates to those 2008-2009 levels.

It is incredibly unfortunate that my generation of baseball fans knows Joe Morgan primarily from his antics in the broadcast booth. Some know more about Fire Joe Morgan than they do about Hall of Fame second baseman Joe Morgan. Today, I’d like to use my four factors of hitting to shed some light on Morgan’s ridiculous peak, in particular his 1975 and 1976 seasons, in which he posted 21.5 total WAR and won the MVP both seasons.

For a reminder, the four factors are BB%, K%, POW (XB/H), and BABIP. The short reason for using POW instead of ISO is that Colin Wyers told me to. The actual reason is that BABIP actually can have a heavy influence on ISO. There doesn’t appear, to me, to be a reason to judge power based on what somebody does in ABs where they make outs (think “long outs”) or don’t even make contact (strikeouts). This doesn’t mean that ISO doesn’t have its merit, but in this case we are trying to separate what these four statistics are telling us as much as possible, which, to me, is the best solution.

Back to the task at hand, here are the four factors for Joe Morgan’s 1975 with The Big Red Machine.

The numbers are staggering across the board. It should come as no surprise that this season resulted in an MVP award and an 11.4 WAR season. Morgan had a walk rate 230% of the average player. When he wasn’t walking, he was making contact, and when he was making contact, it was either a resulting in a base hit or solid power. It’s disappointing that we don’t have plate discipline numbers from this period; I can’t imagine how ridiculous Morgan’s O-Swing% or contact rates were this season to allow him to walk over 2.5 times more than he struck out.

Amazingly enough, the 1975 season almost pales in comparison with what he accomplished in 1976:

The drop in Morgan’s walk rate was pretty much in line with a league-wide drop in walks. Then, in two categories where he already outclassed the entire league, Morgan made huge strides. The drop in strikeouts compensated for the natural drop in BABIP he saw – .298 was still significantly above the league BABIP of .281, making a .336 mark like he had in 1975 slightly ridiculous. If Morgan had merely equaled his power numbers of 1975, we would’ve been looking at another 190 wRC+ type season. Instead, Morgan slugged 27 home runs, a career high and ten more than he put out in 1975. Morgan walked at a rate 226% of the average player and hit for power at a rate 184% higher than that of the average player. Morgan’s numbers is the stuff of which any baseball analyst dreams, sabermetrically inclined or not.

It can be easy to simply dismiss Joe Morgan when we hear him talk in the broadcast booth. It’s important, for those of us who care about the history of the game, however, to remember that Morgan may have been the best second baseman of all time. These two seasons are only part of a five year peak which saw five 9.0+ WAR seasons and 3 10.0+ WAR seasons. Joe Morgan was a fantastic baseball player, and that is how I will remember him.

Note: It’s the midseason, which means things are a little slow. As a result, I’ve taken this opportunity to try and give back to the readers by doing content requests on Twitter. This one comes from Zach Sanders, who actually writes for RotoGraphs and is quite smart and good on his own. He wants some Travis Ishikawa coverage and although he’s probably more qualified to do it than me, here goes nothing.

Buster Posey appeared to be the big winner when the San Francisco Giants traded Bengie Molina on July 1. Posey’s season debut came on May 29 and yet between those two dates he recorded exactly two starts behind the dish in something like 40 games. Posey is starting almost every day now, but so is his replacement at first base: Travis Ishikawa.

Okay, to be fair, it wasn’t just Molina’s departure that opened the spot for Ishikawa. Aaron Rowand’s ineffectiveness has allowed Bruce Bochy to play Andres Torres in centerfield occasionally alongside the Giants’ little blue pills (older players who are still usable, and not just for nostalgia purposes) in Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff. The 26-year-old lefty who hit nine home runs for the Giants in 2009 has clenched the job with ever-yearning, inferno-drenched palms.

In 71 plate appearances Ishikawa has hit two homers, while drastically reducing his strikeout rate, and he’s flashing the isolated power that made him a reasonable first base option after the 2008 season. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Ishikawa’s performance is that it comes without playing in the minor leagues this season. He missed time with two partially torn ligaments in his big toe and, while playing time has been mostly sparse, he’s made the most of it.

It’s hard to say what to expect moving forward. In Triple-A Ishikawa hit .310/.370/.737 in nearly 50 games, and in Double-A he hit .247/.333/.396 while being mostly young for the league. He’s been a mixed bag. One who shows pop and the potential to be a pretty nifty player, but also one who probably hits the ball on the ground too much for his skill set to ever truly flourish. He’s always been noted as a plus defender which helps his case, but he’s not much for hitting left-handers, which suggests his roof might be in a platoon capacity. Which I guess puts him in this family:

The Rays very well may be in possession of the best bullpen in the American League, as their collective 3.45 FIP ranks third overall and first in the AL, just ahead of the White Sox’ staff. Despite being in mid-July, the Rays have only made one roster move for their pitching staff all season, an early season demotion of Mike Ekstrom and promotion of Joaquin Benoit. Otherwise, the entire unit that opened the season is still intact. But maybe not for too much longer.

Joaquin Benoit has a 1.60 FIP and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 10. A minor league signing in the winter, Benoit has exceeded any reasonable projections. Jonah Keri has called him the “embodiment of the Extra 2%,” which just so happens to be the name of his forthcoming book on the Rays. Benoit barely edges Grant Balfour (2.32) and Rafael Soriano (2.88)). LOOGY Randy Choate and ROOGY Dan Wheeler have been similarly good. In fact, only one pitcher in the Rays’ pen has an xFIP over 4.4, that being Lance Cormier, who has seemingly lost his once impeccable control.

So why might this group not be around for much longer? Because each and every one of them can reach the free agency market at season’s end with the exception of Andy Sonnanstine. Soriano and Benoit signed one year deals; Balfour and Choate will qualify for free agency of the non-released variety for the first time in their respective careers; Cormier very well could be a non-tender candidate at this rate; and the Rays hold a club option on Wheeler worth $4 million with a buyout worth $1 million.

With the Rays shedding something like $40 million in payroll, ostensibly a few will return. Benoit could return to the team willing to give him a chance and potentially close, setting himself up for a bigger payday in the near future. Choate has an ERA over 6 despite pitching well for the most part. Wheeler has become something of a mainstay in the Rays’ pen and is the son-in-law of Rays’ announcer Dewayne Staats. And so on. Soriano seems like the least likely to return, but who knows if the Rays can somehow win the World Series.

In their place the Rays could simply keep everything in-house during a down year. With rotation spots hard to come by the Rays have plenty of arms to throw into the relief corps. Something like this, perhaps:

LR: Sonnanstine
MR: Heath Rollins
MR: Aneury Rodriguez
MR: Dale Thayer
SU: Alex Torres
SU: Jake McGee
CP: J.P. Howell

There’s also Ricky Orta and Matt Bush lying around who could find their way onto the scene. That may not be a surefire recipe for success, but in a year in which there will be a ton of roster turnover, the bullpen seems to be no exception.

Episode Forty
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It seems like there was a warm response to my four factors for evaluating hitting that I presented in this post on Martin Prado last Friday. As such, I’d like to use it to take a look at a few more players. One player about whom I think these stats tell a particularly interesting story is Tigers rookie Brennan Boesch.

As a reminder, the four factors of hitting are BB%, K%, POW (XB/H), and BABIP. That is, walk rate, strikeout rate, power (as measured by extra bases per hit), and success on balls in play. I feel that these four statistics sum up extremely well four facets of hitting under which the batter has control.

Let’s take a look at how Brennan Boesch fares under these four measures.

Boesch, to date, has excelled in both power and success on balls in play, performing at a level nearly 130% of the league average in both factors. He’s slightly above average in strikeout rate and a bit below average in terms of walk rate. There’s no doubt that he has been excellent so far this season; his .426 wOBA is right between Joey Votto and Kevin Youkilis on the leaderboard – certainly impressive company for a rookie.

Of course, when a young player with no MLB track record posts these kinds of numbers over any significant period of time, we have to wonder if it’s sustainable. Simply due to the nature of regression, even if a player has ridiculous minor league numbers (which Boesch doesn’t), we would never expect a .426 wOBA to stay that high. What can we reasonably expect out of this extremely hot hitter as the season winds down?

Unfortunately, ZiPS doesn’t have a projection for him in the system. CHONE, however, in its July update, projected Boesch for a .259/.300/.438 line, worth about -7 runs per 150 games. That’s a marginally over replacement level player with average defense in the corners.

To see why CHONE is so down on Boesch, we need to look no further than the four factors. Take a look at how quickly each of the statistics involved here stabilize:

K%: 150 PA
BB%: 200 PA
ISO (presumably, POW would stabilize at a similar time): 550 PA
AVG: >650 PA

Boesch is only 267 plate appearances into his MLB career. For that reason, we can be relatively confident on his below-average walking ability and his above-average ability to avoid the strikeout. However, the two aspects of his game that have him at the top of the MLB leaderboards – power and balls in play – just simply don’t show themselves this early in a player’s career. Boesch showed solid power in AA (0.84 POW) but hasn’t ever showed the kind of BIP skills that would necessarily lead to a .384 or even a .320 BABIP in the majors.

Right now, it’s simply too early for us to conclude that Boesch is so much better than his minor league performance would suggest to even say that he projects as an average hitter going forward. He has certainly impressed in his time on the field in 2010, but his power and success on balls in play are likely to drop. Given the rest of his skills, he simply can’t maintain the elite hitting if this drop occurs. It’s certainly not impossible that this is just a breakout year for Boesch, but the Tigers shouldn’t act as if Boesch is another Miguel Cabrera in their lineup as they plan for the second half.

And we’re off. Introduction here if you missed it.

#50 – Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia

The guy that most people consider the best prospect left in the minors, Brown is also the guy that was famously off-limits in the Roy Halladay trade. When your organization won’t trade you, straight up, for the best pitcher in baseball (who is signing a three year, below market deal as part of the trade, no less), you’ve got quite a bit of value. There’s a pretty good chance that Brown could be a solid major league player tomorrow, and his physical size and abilities give him serious upside. Young power hitters who can also handle themselves on defense are pretty rare and highly coveted.

#49 – Phil Hughes, SP, New York

The former top prospect started to live up to his billing last year and has carried it over to 2010, establishing himself as a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm at age 24. He has good command of quality stuff, and while he’s a pretty extreme flyball guy, he makes it work by racking up a lot of strikeouts. That he’s been able to succeed in a park that’s about as poor a fit for his skillset as possible (all 11 of his home runs allowed this year have come at Yankee Stadium) is highly impressive. Considering that he’s under team control through 2013 at arbitration prices, he’s quite the bargain.

#48 – Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto

Romero has stumbled of late, but his emergence as one of the better young left-handed pitchers in the game couldn’t have come at a better time for the Jays. While he’ll never entirely replace Halladay, he’s doing a pretty decent impression for a 25-year-old in his second year in the big leagues. A groundball lefty with a plus change-up, Romero is able to miss enough bats to compensate for the fact that he doesn’t have great command. He’s not an ace, but considering he’ll make something close to the league minimum again next year before becoming arbitration eligible, he’s providing a lot of return on the Blue Jays investment.

#47 – Martin Prado, 2B, Atlanta

The ultimate performance over tools guy in the big leagues right now, Prado’s success is a testament to how pedigree doesn’t mean everything. This is a guy who hit 15 home runs in 2,119 minor league plate appearances, and was simply not considered much of a prospect when he got to the big leagues. However, for the last three years, he’s been one of the best second baseman in baseball, adding some power to his already good contact rates and turning himself into a legitimate All-Star this season. He’s headed for his prime years as an already good player, and the Braves have him under control for three more seasons. He might be the most unexpected guy on this list, but he’s earned his spot here.

#46 – Mat Latos, SP, San Diego

Latos wasn’t great last year as a rookie, but his second stint through the National League has been a lot more successful. The fastball command that was his hallmark in the minors has returned, and the slider is good enough to give him a strikeout pitch on most days. As a result, he’s having a terrific season as a 22-year-old, and while he’s benefiting from Petco and the National League, he fares well even after you adjust for those external effects. With five more years of team control, the Padres have to be thrilled with how quickly Latos has developed and just how much value they’ll be able to get from him before he heads to free agency.

A little over half way through the season, the Minnesota Twins, favored by many to win the American League Central relatively easily, are in third place. Their run differential indicates that they “should” be winning the division, something that will hopefully be noticed by Ron Gardenhire’s fan club (which includes some who should know better). Despite their inability to pull ahead in the division, the Twins have received great performances from Justin Morneau and Francisco Liriano, and perhaps most surprisingly, competence from Delmon Young. However, it is hard not to notice the relatively down offensive season from Joe Mauer, whose .345 wOBA at the break is equal to that of fellow All-Star John Buck.

A .345 wOBA from a catcher is very valuable, of course, and Mauer has already accumulated 2.1 Wins Above Replacement, meaning he’d be close to 4 WAR over the full season (if you buy into “on pace for” stats, which you shouldn’t). One shouldn’t pin the blame for the Twins failure to run away with the division on Mauer’s “bad” hitting. Still, one certainly expected more from Mauer at the plate after his .438 wOBA (.365/.444/.587) in 2009. While the best pre-season projections expected some regression, they were still extremely impressed: CHONE projected a .401 wOBA and ZiPS a .415.

The primary difference between 2009 and 2010 so far has been Mauer’s power, as has been discussed in detail by David Golebiewski. I substantially agree with that analysis, and have little to add to it. Mauer’s opposite field approach is a rarity among hitter, but usually works for him. With a 10% career HR/FB rate, one expected it to come back down from 20.4% in 2009. Little else stands out in Mauer’s peripheral numbers that would make one think something is “wrong.” His walk rate is slightly down, which is likely related to his higher percentage of pitches chased out of the zone, but the whole league is chasing more pitches this season. He’s actually making contact more frequently so far this season, and is hitting more line drives, but while Mauer has a tremendous gift for hitting singles and doubles, his 2009 BABIP was unsustainable.

Expectations for Mauer’s 2010 go beyond projected peformance, however, and were tied, fairly or not, to the eight-year, $184 million dollar “hometown premium” extension for 2011-2018 he signed during the off-season. That was properly analyzed to death at the time, so I won’t go over it myself in detail. Depending on how much you think the dollars per marginal win will be starting in 2010 and the average rate of inflation, I’d say the Twins paid for a 5.5-6 WAR player starting in 2011, assuming average decline in production and 7% salary inflation over the life of the contract.

With that in mind, it is understandable if Mauer’s 2 WAR through a little over a half a season might not be quite “good enough” in the eyes of some. While there are reasons to be concerned about Mauer’s production in relation to the big contract (and it is a 50/50 shot at best that it will “pay off,” given that it was pretty much a market deal), it is worth remembering that observed performance is not the same as true talent, that a player’s performance as he ages is rarely perfectly linear, and, perhaps most of all, that the best projection systems that have taken into account of Mauer’s offensive performance this season still see his true talent as far above his current performance: ZiPS Rest of Season projections spits out a .394 wOBA (.323/.404/.491), and CHONE’s July 1 update as a +36/150 hitter (.319/.397/.483). The BABIP and power are unlikely to return to 2009 levels, but he’s probably better than this. Expect better production from Mauer over the second half, given good health

For those still understandably concerned about Mauer’s current performance in relation to the future, consider one alternate possibility: Mauer’s Big New Contract doesn’t start until next season. He’s making “only” $12.5 million dollars this season, and even if he only has a .345 wOBA over the rest of 2010, he’ll easily be worth more than that if he stays healthy. Maybe, just maybe, he’s waiting to turn on the ~.400 wOBA production until he’s actually getting paid for it.

Well played, Mauer, indeed.

Overview

The Rays got off to a torrid start this year, jumping out to a division lead on April 22 and eventually extending that to a six-game cushion on May 23. But nineteen games later they fell back into a tie, and since June 20 have been behind the New York Yankees. They recently rattled off six in a row to keep pace, though they didn’t gain a single game during that span. They’re still close, just two games back of the Yankees.

Buy or Sell?

The question isn’t of whether or not the Rays will add a player before the deadline, but of what player and when. They’re in an excellent position to make the playoffs right now, with Baseball Prospectus’s Postseason Odds report giving them a 64.89 percent chance, which trails only New York, Texas, and Atlanta. Yet they trail Boston by a game in third order wins, so they will probably want to add a player or two in order to solidify the lineup and pitching staff.

At third base, left field, and either right field or second base the Rays are set. They need not find upgrades over Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, or Ben Zobrist. Catcher is probably set, too. While John Jaso has cooled down after his hot debut he’s still hitting well, and with Kelly Shoppach also in place the Rays don’t need to add at the position. At pretty much any other position, however, the Rays could certainly upgrade.

Shortstop presents an odd situation, in which two opposite-handed players, Jason Bartlett and Reid Brignac, have reverse splits in the first half. That will start to correct itself, and that could make the duo a decent platoon option. Again, chances are the Rays won’t look for an upgrade here, where they have players in place. Second base can be in issue, too, but it seems like they’ll be patient with Sean Rodriguez, especially with Zobrist able to take over the position if necessary.

Would the Rays consider a move at first base? Carlos Pena has been their man for the past few years, but he’s had a rough first half, a .326 wOBA. That puts him near the bottom of AL first basemen. Much of that comes from his performance against lefties, a .289 wOBA in about a third of his overall plate appearances. Acquiring a right-handed half of the platoon could work, especially because the Rays have a number of multi-position players.

The Rays could also use another bat in the DH spot. That’s where Corey Hart could fit in. Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune says that the Rays are “getting serious” about him, and that the Rays could use their pitching depth to lure the Brewers into a trade. Hart is experiencing a renaissance year, reminiscent of his breakout 2007 season. He’d fit in right field, where the Rays could use an upgrade, and also at DH — he doesn’t rate very well as a fielder but he’s not a butcher. Tommy Rancel of DRays Bay likes the idea, but worries that the Rays could overpay. Looking at their rotation now and in the future, Matt Garza, who will get more and more expensive in each of the next three seasons, could be the target, with Jeremy Hellickson taking his place.

If the Rays want to do someting about B.J. Upton and his poor production against righties, a .280 wOBA, they do have options. They would probably turn internally there, however, with Desmond Jennings getting the call. After a rocky start he’s hitting much better, a .412 OBP in June and a .368 mark so far this month. A righty-righty platoon doesn’t sound ideal, but Jennings handles righties well enough. The only question is of whether the Rays would call him up if he won’t play every day. They could give him the role by trading Upton, but given the patience the team has displayed with them I don’t think that’s particularly likely.

In the rotation there shouldn’t be much of a problem. The Rays have had the particular luxury of having only five pitchers start games in the first half, and for the most part they’ve been effective. They do have the flexibility to move one of them — again, probably Garza — if if would help them out. There is a possible replacement in the bullpen with Andy Sonnanstine, who is having a decent year, and on the farm. The bullpen probably doesn’t need any tweaking, which is an advantage. With nearly every team seeking bullpen help we could see a few overpayments this month. They could probably use a lefty upgrade over Randy Choate, but he’s pitched better lately and in any case it’s a luxury, not a need. Their bullpen, anchored by Joaquin Benoit and Rafael Soriano, and with valuable contributions from Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler, can stand up against most, if not all, of their competitors.

On the Farm

The two players who could have an impact for the Rays in the second half are Jennings and Hellickson. If the Rays need to deal from the rotation, Hellickson is the obvious fill-in, as he’s crushing AAA as a 23-year-old. Jennings could see time later this year to help strengthen the outfield. Even if they bring in Corey Hart they could benefit from Jennings on defense. Then again, they do have plenty of options in the outfield and might want to give Jennings the rest of the year in AAA.

If they don’t get Hart, Dan Johnson could present another option for the corner spots. He has played at third base at AAA Durham this year, hitting .349/.405/.505 through 292 AB. He’s no great shakes, a .333 career wOBA, but he presents a chance for the Rays to catch lightning in a bottle. Chances are he can’t do much worse than the Rays’ DHs, who have hit a combined .240/.307/.373 this season.

With a slew of young pitchers among their top prospects, the Rays could use one or more of them as trade bait. They’ll want to keep some of them around for the future, of course, but with a rotation whose oldest member is 28 they can afford to trade from the lower levels.

Budget

The Rays are always working under tight financial framework, and this year they’ve extended themselves already. The $72.85 million they’re paying their players represents a franchise record. But that won’t stop owner Stu Sternberg from making a deal.

“Money won’t be an object,” Sternberg said. “Players are always an object for us and the money will be an impediment, but we’ll figure it out if it makes all the sense in the world for this team.”

There are practical limits to what the Rays can do, so Sternberg is certainly exaggerating when he says that money isn’t an object. But if it means adding a significant piece, they’ll find the room. That has to be reassuring for Rays fans.

With the trade deadline quickly approaching, I thought it would be interesting to look at some players who could/should be “sold high” at the trade deadline. For my definition of selling high, I’ve basically chosen the conventional description of selling an asset when its market value is highest. But we’re mostly limiting this to teams that are either out of the playoff picture or can gain more from a trade of a player than the potential loss of production that player would bring. I understand there are plenty of these types of players, so feel free to use the comments section to throw some other names out there.

SP Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs
2010 xFIP: 4.75
Potential suitors: New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies

Lilly is comimg off of a huge 2009 where he posted a 3.65 FIP and 3.98 xFIP, good for 3.7 WAR. His K and BB rates, however,  have been disturbingly poor this season, as his K/BB went from 4.19 last year to 2.71 this year. But for teams that aren’t looking too deeply at those numbers, Lilly’s 4.08 ERA may be appealing. Teams will envision him as a 3-4 starter in a good rotation, when really he’s just not pitching well right now. If the Cubs could pry away outfield prospect Kirk Nieuwenhuis from the Mets, it would be a steal.

2B/SS Cristian Guzman, Washington Nationals
2010 wOBA: .314
Potential suitors: Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers

Guzman’s decent defense at second base and his ability to play shortstop make him an attractive commodity at the trade deadline. His .295 batting average will look especially enticing, and it’s not like the Nats are going to contend this year, and probably not seriously next year. They should look to nab a decent prospect from the Tigers, who have been running Ramon Santiago out at shortstop for most of 2010, or the Phillies, who are without Chase Utley for quite some time and could always use a solid backup shortstop with Jimmy Rollins’ injuries.

OF Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
2010 wOBA: .389
Potential suitors: New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays

Hart is having his best year since his fantastic 2007, and despite his defensive woes, has already produced 2.3 WAR. His 20 homers will make him one of the sluggers available at the deadline, and due to the Padres’ success (which likely means no Adrian Gonzalez), a team looking for a solid bat may pick up Hart as a consolation prize. The Giants outfield is pretty crowded as it stands, but reports say that GM Brian Sabean is interested in Hart. If the Brewers can get Zack Wheeler or Tommy Joseph from San Francisco, or even Mike Minor from the Braves, they could receive some solid value.

1B Russell Branyan, Seattle Mariners
2010 wOBA: .353
Potential suitors: Texas Rangers, LA Angels

Branyan isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire, but he’s hitting the ball well enough that his value to the Mariners is higher as trade bait than in the field. With the recent acquisition of Justin Smoak, Seattle already has an everyday first baseman they want to see frequently. Michael Saunders is in left field, which means that Branyan could serve as the designated hitter. Milton Bradley, however,  is going to be with the team next year and needs to get playing time. If Jon Daniels and Jack Z decide to swap players again, they might want to discuss Branyan. Without Smoak at first, the Rangers are going to lose some offense, and Branyan would be a nice fit in Arlington.