The Reds, it appears, have caught a break. Last week they dropped three straight to the Cardinals, turning a two-game NL Central lead into a one-game deficit. But since then things have turned around. St. Louis lost two of three to the Cubs and then dropped the series opener to the Brewers, while the Reds swept the Marlins and took the first game against Arizona. That has put Cincinnati back on top and has put their excellent August in better view. They’re 10-4 this month and have led the division most of the way.

One change the team made this month came when Orlando Cabrera suffered a strained oblique during the team’s August 2 win against the Pirates. This wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. While Cabrera had rebounded from an atrocious defensive season in 2009, he was by far the team’s worst producer on offense. His .289 wOBA is not only worst among Reds with 200 PA (by 30 points), but it is also third-worst among MLB shortstops. Yet despite this abject futility, Dusty Baker continued to pencil Cabrera into the No. 1 or 2 spot in the lineup regularly.

At this point in the season the Reds cannot afford to continue playing a player as ineffective as Cabrera. They’re in a race with a team that, by most measures, has more talent than they do. That means the Reds need to catch every break possible. As Seneca said, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Playing the third-worst shortstop in the league and then positioning him at the top of the order doesn’t seem like ample preparation. In fact, it seems like a detriment to the team.

The problem, of course, is finding someone who can replace Cabrera in the field and lineup while providing better production. Thankfully for the Reds, they had someone worth trying. Paul Janish, the team’s fifth-round pick in 2004, had hit well coming off the bench, a .270/.370/.413 line in 74 PA. It’s understandable why the Reds didn’t outright bench a healthy Cabrera in favor of Janish, but now that they’re getting production from the latter they owe it to the team to ride this as far as it goes. If that means benching Cabrera upon his return, that might be a necessary sacrifice.

In their pre-season 2007 rankings Baseball America had Janish as the Reds No. 9 prospect, saying that he “will go as far as his bat allows him.” That bat produced a .358 wOBA in high-A ball in 2006. Still, his best skill remained his defense. It wasn’t so much his incredible range, but as BA put it, his “nearly flawless footwork, soft hands and a plus arm.” The next year Janish fell out of the top 10, though they did rate him as having the best strike zone discipline in the system. His 12.8 percent walk rate in 2007 represented a three-point jump from his 2006 season and it came at a higher level, Double-A. A drop in power meant a lower wOBA, but the future still looked bright for young Janish.

Overall, though, Janish produced underwhelming minor league numbers. The player who had once shown promise on offense stumbled through about a full season at Triple-A, producing a .319 wOBA in his final run in 2008. By 2009 he was with the big league club, playing his expected part-time role off the bench. In 292 PA last year he produced a .275 wOBA, though he turned that into a 1.0 WAR with stellar defense. But the Reds didn’t think that was enough for him to hold a spot as a regular, so they signed Cabrera this off-season.

While Janish hit well enough in part-time duty before the Cabrera injury he has really stepped it up in his absence, going 13-for-43 (.302 AVG) with four walks (.362 OBP) and four extra base hits (.488 SLG). He has done this without the aid of a ridiculous BABIP, .292 on the season and .289 in August. This adds up to a 0.9 WAR season, which is 0.2 behind Cabrera despite having 331 fewer PA. He deserves a shot to stay in the starting lineup as long as he keeps this up.

How long will he keep it up, though? His minor league and scant major league record suggest not long. He’s had success in some regards, but nothing that suggests he can maintain a .348 wOBA for an extended stretch. But, at this point, that shouldn’t be of much consideration to the Reds. They’re in a pennant race with a tough team, and they need to find every advantage possible. If that means playing a hot-hitting Janish at the expense of Cabrera, so be it. There would be nothing worse than to remove Janish during a hot streak and replace him with the currently inferior Cabrera.

According to multiple sources, the Braves are very close to acquiring Derrek Lee from the Chicago Cubs for a handful of prospects. For the Braves, who made a few deals at the deadline that netted them Rick Ankiel and Alex Gonzalez, this could be a move that makes them a serious threat in the playoffs.

In an article just eight days ago I detailed Derrek Lee’s poor season, ultimately concluding:

While it may be obvious to notice a lack of fly balls by Lee this year, which seems to be dangerous for a first baseman playing at Wrigley, the loss has been mitigated by an increase in line drives and a decrease in infield flies. Take those into account and Lee is actually doing better than he was last year in that regard. His HR/FB rate has been a huge problem, which is a career low for Lee. If we use the wisdom behind xFIP on Lee and adjust his HR/FB rate to his career average (16.4%), then he’d be at ~19.7 homers this year rather than just the twelve at which he currently sits. But we know that for hitters, unlike (generally) pitchers, HR/FB is not just a matter of luck but is deeply rooted in skill….Lee is “underperforming” on his BABIP on each batted ball type with the worst offender being line drives. Sure, it’s nice that Lee is hitting more of them, but if they’re not going for hits, and especially extra bases, then it’s not as important.

Lee’s HR/FB rate has jumped up to 12.9% in that time, with his wOBA up to a more respectable .330. It seems as though Lee is beginning to snap out of his season-long funk, and if the Braves can strike while the iron is hot, they’ll certainly be happy.

In terms of the logistics of bringing Lee aboard, the Braves have some maneuvering to do. It seems as though the odd man out will be Troy Glaus, who has looked brutal since the All-Star break. Glaus, who was killing the ball in May and June, is now down to a line of just .239/.343/.406, very poor numbers for a first baseman with below average defense. ZiPS does think he’s good for a .342 wOBA for the rest of the season, but the bat isn’t good enough, nor the defense strong enough, to warrant a spot at third base in the absence of Chipper Jones, who is out for the season. It seems as though the Braves lineup the rest of the way will look like this:

2B Omar Infante/ 3B Martin Prado
RF Jason Heyward
1B Derrek Lee
C Brian McCann
3B Martin Prado/ 2B Omar Infante
CF Rick Ankiel
SS Alex Gonzalez
LF Melky Cabrera/ Matt Diaz/ Eric Hinske

The Braves also have Nate McLouth coming back from his injury, but he just hasn’t shown he’s ready to be play very competitively just yet. Brooks Conrad should also see some time playing around the diamond, although his defensive gaffes at third base the other night may force Bobby Cox to use him primarily as a pinch-hitter.

Without knowing exactly what’s going back to Chicago just yet, this seems to be a solid trade for the Braves. With Lee’s contract up at the end of the year they can use Lee not only to stopgap for Freddie Freeman in 2011, but also seriously compete for a World Series title.

Here begins our team-by-team reviews of the 2010 draft. Each team is linked to their full draft at BaseballAmerica.com. And: yes, this is still too early to be judging a team’s draft. As a result, I will be pretty neutral in my analysis.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Chris Sale, Florida Gulf Coast, lhp, 13th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 9/1.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Amazingly, Sale has already made four appearances with the White Sox, running a zero ERA through 3.2 innings. Combine that with 19 strikeouts in 10.1 innings in the minors … The three college pitchers making up the 2-4 rounds of the draft — Jacob Petricka, Addison Reed, Thomas Royse — have all been great in the low minors, though Petricka has moved onto a full season league … Top offensive signee Andy Wilkins is doing what’s expected: bashing in the Pioneer League at a .338/.417/.534 clip, while playing mostly third base … Meanwhile, top high school pick Rangel Ravelo has really struggled (.550 OPS) in the Appy League.

Thoughts: While I found SEC draftees Wilkins and Ross Wilson moderately inspiring, there’s no doubt this draft is centered completely around college pitching. I have to hope and assume that Sale will soak in some knowledge from Don Cooper these last two months, but then be ready to open next season in Double-A, as a starter. Petricka has some fantastic potential, and don’t sleep on ninth-round pick Kevin Moran, who also has a good arm. I’m not a huge fan of one-note drafts — in this case, college pitchers — but those arms have enough variety to not have me write off the strategy completely.

CLEVELAND INDIANS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Drew Pomeranz, Ole Miss, lhp, 5th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 5 college, 3 HS, 2 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances: Sixth-round JC shortstop Nick Bartolone is the highest drafted player to have regular playing time so far. After a nice stint in the complex league, Bartolone has struggled in eight games in the New York-Penn League … So, too, have Division I talents Jordan Cooper (4.90 FIP), Tyler Cannon (.247 wOBA) and Diego Seastrunk (.297 wOBA), all picked after the ninth round.

Thoughts: This is a team that gave seven figures to four players, and at least a quarter million to four others. There’s quite a bit of variety in that group, with two million dollar prep hitters (Tony Wolters, Alex Lavisky) and about $4 million in investments to five Division I pitchers. Pomeranz is the key to that group, but there was a time when Kyle Blair was ranked higher, and you have to like getting draft-eligible sophomore Michael Goodnight in the 13th round — he’s a real talent. This is to say nothing of LeVon Washington, who was drafted in the first round in 2009, who has a lot of believers. A diverse and expensive draft is going to get my praise every time.

DETROIT TIGERS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Nick Castellanos, Florida HS, 3B/SS, 44th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 7 college, 2 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The Tigers were aggressive with some early drafted catchers, sending third-rounder Rob Brantly to the Midwest League, and sixth-rounder Bryan Holaday to the Florida State League. Brantly has been average-ish, while Holaday has been big with the lumber (.381 wOBA) but not with the glove (2-for-19 throwing out runners) … In fact, that West Michigan team added not only Brantly but a new right side, as Corey Jones (.394 wOBA) and Tony Plagman (.351 wOBA) have really helped the Whitecaps … On the not-so-positive side is Jim’s son Patrick Leyland, who has really struggled in the complex league, hitting .179/.234/.188 in 32 games.

Thoughts: Detroit’s annual financial commitment to the draft is inspiring, and it was no exception this year: Nick Castellanos broke the record for the largest bonus of a guy drafted outside the first round. Detroit also gave seven figures to Chance Ruffin and Drew Smyly, a pair of high-floor college pitchers. Obviously, though, they key here is Castellanos, and this is a huge statement about their belief in his ability. Getting Drew Gagnier in the 17th round was nice, but it’s not a draft I feel overly optimistic about. More than most drafts, it seems like the success of the draft is tied to one player.

KANSAS CITY
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Christian Colon, Cal State Fullerton, 4th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 8/2.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: It hasn’t been an easy road for Christian Colon, who has a .299 wOBA in 180 plate appearances in the Carolina League. We know that Wilmington stadium is death on offense, but a 4.4 BB% and .286 BABIP won’t get it done in the low minors … Third-round pick Mike Antonio has made 15 errors in 24 games at shortstop in the complex league. It’s been a problematic first 28 games, but he has shown some nice gap power … The always enigmatic Scott Alexander has been nothing but in the Pioneer League, with a 4.68 FIP, a sky-high BABIP, and a 6.8 K/9.

Thoughts: For all the thinking that the Royals drafted Colon to save some money for later: Colon actually ended up getting the sixth-most money in this draft. They did spend a bit later, waiting until the midnight hour to get Brett Eibner and Jason Adam signed. While this draft has a lot of diversity, I’m not sure there’s much to be crazy about. Colon will need to stick at shortstop, Kevin Chapman a dominant Thornton-like reliever, and Jason Adam a nice high school diamond in the rough. I like Adam, but the fact that he has a pretty good chance to become the draft’s best player means a failure of scouting in rounds 1 and 2.

MINNESOTA
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Alex Wimmers, Ohio State, rhp, 21st overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 7 college, 2 HS, 1 PR.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team’s two highest drafted hitters are both with the complex league team, and have offered completely different results. Second-round shortstop Niko Goodrum has been a mess through his first 100 professional at-bats, collecting half as many hits (15) as strikeouts (30). Puerto Rican outfielder Eddie Rosario has been great, showing both some power (.137 ISO) and speed (22/24 on bases) … Fifth-round outfielder Nate Roberts has been dominant in the Appy League, hitting .321/.433/.554 through 31 games.

Thoughts: It’s no secret that I really like Alex Wimmers, and he makes a lot of sense with the Twins. Minnesota continued its formula that they’ve built their farm system around: college pitchers with command, prep up-the-middle athletes. Wimmers is joined by Pat Dean and Logan Darnell as pitchers that should move through the low minors quickly. But if they aren’t future stars, the team did gamble with Goodrum and Rosario, and they certainly have some potential stars culled through the International Scouting Department. That said, the team went pretty inexpensive this year, and I’d love to see a few more risks.

Favorite AL Central Draft: Cleveland.

A few people have asked me to run some calculations on certain players, and given how easy it is to do with the spreadsheet in front of me, I figured that this would be a resource that at least a few people would be interested in having on their own computers.

Again, I would remind you that this is a bit of a work in progress, but here’s version 1.0 of the Expanded Four Factors spreadsheet.

Download The Four Factors Spreadsheet Here (.xls file)

It’s not a terribly complicated spreadsheet to use, but here’s a screenshot and a quick overview.

[Click to enlarge]

In its base form, the chart will show 20 lines of the league average 2010 player. In order to replace the chart values with those of your player of interest, enter his factor values into the yellow (FanGraphs Beige?) cells. You can go ahead and change the value of the average player, too, if you want to see how things were in different seasons, although this won’t affect anything once you’ve entered the value for an individual player in the yellow cells.

Once the factors are entered into the yellow cells, you’ll have an original line for your player, which will appear in line 1. As such, you probably don’t want to edit line 1 at all. Then, after that, you can use lines 2-20 to take a look at lines with different values for the four factors, and you can change one at a time or all four, although making graphs with four different independent variables can be challenging.

Don’t mess with the formulas under the “results” section unless you feel like changing up the methodology in some way, and if you do I highly recommend you save an original copy first (or bookmark this post) as the equation, particularly for HRs, isn’t exactly intuitive.

That’s all I can think of to add here; if you have any questions/comments/mistakes/etc. to point out, you can of course use the comment section, contact me over twitter, or email me at jhmoore AT wisc DOT edu.

Today’s edition of One Night Only is brought to you by the Midwest.

“The Midwest: We might be overweight, but we had fun getting this way.”

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Wednesday, August 18 | Chicago (AL) at Minnesota | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Pale Hose: Gavin Floyd (7)
151.0 IP, 7.39 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, .314, BABIP, 51.1% GB, 7.1% HR/FB, 3.68 xFIP

Twinkers: Francisco Liriano (10)
146.1 IP, 9.84 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, .350 BABIP, 54.0% GB, 2.0% HR/FB, 2.94xFIP

MVP?
Here are some things that might interest ye. The first thing is Joe Mauer’s line through July 24th: .295/.365/.435. Now here’s Joe Mauer’s line since then: .516/.588/.750.

“But Carson,” maybe you’re saying, “not only is that a small sample, but his BABIP is over like .500 in that time.” To which I reply: “Hey, how bout you take a trip to Cram-It Ville, and cram it.”

“But Carson,” maybe you’re continuing to say, “Cram-It Ville isn’t even a real place.” To which I reply, again: “Yeah, actually you’re right. Sorry, I just got carried away.”

FYI, here’s Mr. Joe Mauer’s current season line now: .331/.404/.486, .381 wOBA, 141 wRC+, 4.2 WAR. That’s from a catcher, friends.

Danny Frigging Valencia
Yesterday, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors briefly speculated that the Twins might claim Brandon Inge off waivers, if and when he (i.e. Inge) is placed there by his current team, the Detroit Tigers. Dierkes went on to suggest that the Twinkers might be fine with young Danny Valencia manning third for the duration of the season.

As it might for you, too, it made me curious about Valencia’s performance thus far. Here’s what I found: .329/.375/.419, .354 wOBA, 123 wRC+, 1.6 WAR, 168 PA.

Because you’re a nerd, you’re also very likely wondering about his (i.e. Valencia’s) luck, and you’re right to do so, as Valencia’s BABIP currently stands at .385. That number will probably regress. How far, is the question.

In any case, using Jackie Moore’s Four Factors, we can say this much: all other things being equal, Danny Valencia with a .350 BABIP brings his wOBA down to .330, a .325 BABIP means a .310 wOBA, and .300 BABIP equals a .290 wOBA.

Given his batted-ball profile, which is pretty typical actually, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him move more towards the last of those sets of figures.

Notes from Erik Manning, Owner-Operator of Pale Hose Pariah
• You can heap all sorts of superlatives when it comes to the White Sox pitching rotation. They are solid from top to bottom, even after losing Jake Peavy for the season. For all the attention that the Brothers Roy or Wainwright-Carpenter get, Danks-Floyd arguably have been the best 1-2 punch in baseball. Floyd is also the poster boy of xFIP. Behold: April ERA – 6.49, xFIP 4.06. May – 5.63, 4.10, June – 2.58, 3.28, July 0.80, 3.28, August 3.92, 3.93.
• Jim Thome has a .409 wOBA. The White Sox DH’s have averaged a .307 wOBA. It’s a dead horse in Sox-o-sphere, but… angry eyebrows. >:(
• I’ve seen this print on a t-shirt, and I want one.

Top Secret Information
This game is what we in the industry refer to as “one-a spicey meat-a-ball.” That’s as much as I’m allowed to say, however.

If I Had My Druthers
This game would be an actual spicy meatball, and I’d eat the frig out of it.

Other Games
TEX (Derek Holland, N/A) at TB (James Shields, 8) | 1:10pm ET
Why won’t you let Derek Holland be great, America?

COL (Jason Hammel, 8) at LAD (Hiroki Kuroda, 8) | 10:10pm ET
Carlos Gonzalez, plate discipline: 4.7% BB, 23.4% K.

Last night on Twitter, a follower (the unfortunately named MrNegative1) alerted me that 13 first round picks were starting for their respective teams. The talent and names ranged from Matt Garza to Justin Verlander to Mike Minor and so on. Curious, I looked up the remainder of the starters and was reminded that the Rangers drafted Tommy Hunter in the supplemental portion of the 2007 draft as compensation for losing Mark DeRosa. A closer examination yielded that the Rangers made more first round selections that year than I could recall.

In the first round alone, the Rangers selected Blake Beavan, Michael Main, Julio Borbon, Neil Ramirez, and Hunter. Later on in the draft, they would select Mitch Moreland, Josh Lueke, Matt Lawson, Evan Reed, and Ryan Tatusko. With the exception of Ramirez, each one of those players is playing or has played some role in the Rangers’ fantastic season. Moreland, Hunter, and Borbon are obviously with the big league team and starting on some nights. Meanwhile, Main went to San Francisco for Bengie Molina; Lueke, Lawson, and Beavan to Seattle for Cliff Lee; Reed was part of the Jorge Cantu deal; and Takusko part of the Cristian Guzman trade.

Farm systems are multi-purposeful and the Rangers have used each of the phases well. They can be used to groom young players to eventually star on the big league team, trading chips, and role players alike. You can argue that the Rangers overpaid in trades or that the various players are nothing special, it’s still somewhat impressive that the Rangers’ 2007 draft, which produced 54 players total, has been such a talent well for them this season.

Okay, wrapping things up.

So what I’m getting at is that the only way to have a satisfying conversation about this sort of thing is to develop some objective standards and quantifiable measurements for these rankings.

This was one of the big complaints about the series from many people – too much opinion, not enough quantification. So, next year, we’ll do things differently. We’ll be far more clear about the respective ratings for each area and the weights that are given to those strengths and weaknesses. There will always be subjectivity in the rankings, of course, since we’re dealing with perceptions of things, but I agree that we can do a better job of explaining things. We’ll try to make them more transparent next year.

You show no acknowledgement for your ranking, if anything you seem more entrenched in your view, when tons of reasonable people have i think made some decisive points in your direction.

That was not at all the intention of this little project. If that’s how it has come across, I’m sorry. I hoped that we could actually have a conversation about the thoughts that went into the ranking, getting beyond basic assumptions of bias and discussing the merits (or lack thereof) of the logic that I tried to employ. Based on the responses, it looks like it wasn’t all that successful. That’s somewhat disappointing, but understandable I guess.

But, it seems like most people aren’t really interested in talking about the sausage making process. They just want an apology or an admission of error. So, this is for all of you who fall into that category.

You were right. I was wrong. The Mariners have had a bad year. In retrospect, I shouldn’t have ranked them as highly.

There you go. Tomorrow – back to baseball.

When the “rebuilding” San Diego Padres started 2010 well, most thought they wouldn’t stick. However, with with less than fifty games to go, the Padres are still in first place in the National League West. Predictably, various explanations have been given for this, and talk of how they are “staying within themselves” and being “consistent” is cropping up, as in this recent entry by Buster Olney (Insider) quoting a scout to the effect that the Padres don’t have a very good offense outside of Adrian Gonzalez, but are winning more due to their willingness to move guys over and play their “roles” in an intelligent way to maximize their plate appearances.

It is probably true that the Padres are outplaying their “true talent” to an extent, but teams and individuals overperform and underperform their true talent all the time. What is more interesting is the implication that the Padres are getting “more bang for their buck” offensively by doing the “little things” that just help a team win. My interest is not in taking Olney or the scout he quoted to task. Rather, I want to see if the numbers bear out the idea that the Padres are getting more wins out of their offense than they “should” because of their execution, because of the “little things.”

The “little things” are often brought up in reference to teams who outperform their run differential, e.g., some recent Angels teams. The first thing to note about the Padres, however, is that they are not outplaying their Pythagorean expectation: they are actually two wins under what their run differential suggests. So one could argue on that basis alone that the Padres are being “inefficent” in their wins.

But that does not specifically address whether their offense has generated more wins than they “should.” This implies that the Padres have a poor offense. At first glance, one would say “yes,” as the Padres’ team wOBA of .311 (43 linear weights runs [a.k.a. wRAA] below average) is the among the worst in baseball. However, that needs to be understood in context. The Padres have one of the most hitter-unfriendly home parks in the major leagues. In addition, runs above/below average is baselined against all of the MLB, and includes pitchers hitting. To get a better picture, let’s use the park-adjusted linear weights runs from the team value pages and compare to the rest of the NL. In this light, we see that the Padres’ offense is actually four runs above average, and the only team in the NL West above average. So the Padres’ offense has been one of the better in the NL, and the picture of a team miraculously scraping out runs with inferior hitters is already a bit distorting.

Still, even if the Padres offense has been good, is it doing things to deliver more wins than than traditional linear weights measures?

One way of trying to quantify this is to measure their traditional “context-free” linear weights (wRAA, Batting Runs, etc.) against the difference in run expectancy based on base-out state, as I discuss for individuals here. In short, we can subtract a team’s traditional linear weights (“Batting”) from their RE24 to see how much run value is added by hitting “to the context.” Doing this for the Padres (35.84 RE24 – 4.2 Batting) gives a “situational” added value of about 36 runs, which is obviously good.

However, if we’re going to emphasize “context” when discussing a situational hitting, shouldn’t we go all the way, and include not just base/out state, but inning and overall game situation? This is what WPA/LI does. For more detailed explanation of the following, click here, but a brief example can illuminate the difference. Take the following situation: tie game, bottom of the ninth inning, bases loaded, two outs. In this situation, wRAA and RE24 consider a walk and a home run to have very different linear weights values, whereas for WPA/LI it has the same, since it adjusts linear weights to game-state contexts. So if we subtract traditional linear weights (converted to a wins scale) from that, we see how many contextual wins they’ve added beyond the average value of events. And when we do this for the 2010 Padres, we get -0.79 wins. In other words, their offense has actually helped their team win fewer games than one would expect by just looking at the events out of context.

The 2010 Padres are a good team. Their pitching (particularly in relief) has been very good, although that praise should be tempered for the same reasons that we should realize that their offense has actually been better than one might think: the park. They also have been excellent in the field. Those are the reasons that should be given for their success this season. I don’t know whether or not the “little things” stat used above represents a repeatable skill, but whatever the case may be, it is not true that the Padres are getting more wins for less offense.

Let’s talk about how the new draftees with major league deals in hand and options work — starting first and foremost with 17-year-old Bryce Harper. The precocious talent very well could reach the Nationals before being legal drinking age. Such is a rarity and even more so when a player who will not turn 20 for another two seasons is given a major league deal.

None of these players, Harper included, will use options because the signing deadline does not occur until the middle of August. One of the provisions in using an option is that a player must accumulate at least 90 days of service time within that season for it to qualify. In 90 days, the baseball season will be over, meaning nobody who signed last night is going to come close to qualifying. This is true for any player placed only in short season ball during a given season.

How about a hypothetical. Say that Harper could reach those 90 days, what does it mean for the Nationals? They could circumvent the option usage by making sure his minor league stint lasted for fewer than 20 days before recalling him to the majors, thus ensuring no optional assignment burned. The only catch there is that his minor league time would be applied to his major league service time. Instead, teams are given an extra year of padding based on a rule which allows for four option seasons if the player has fewer than five professional seasons. That comes into play with the aforementioned 90-days rule.

Pretend that Harper impresses the Nationals so much in spring training next year that they option him to a full-season league at the end of spring. After a brilliant month in A-ball, he tears his ACL while running the bases and misses the remainder of the season. The Collective Bargaining Agreement protects the Nationals here, too, as a player must have 60 days on an active list before disabled list time counts towards service time. If Harper played until, say, August and then tore his ACL, he would be credited with a professional season and hence have an option used.

An important distinction to note is that pro service time and major league service time are not the same. The latter – which is undoubtedly more popular and well-known – is the clock that determines arbitration and free agent eligibility. While there are some rules about options that revolve around the major league service time none of those come into play with these signees for the time being.

In summary, here are the key points:

– Players who signed major league deals last night will not use an option because they will spend fewer than 90 days in the minors.
– Players will likely begin burning options next season, assuming they play above short-season ball and stay relatively healthy
– In some cases, these players will have four option years, not the standard three, if those options fall within their first five professional seasons – dictated not by draft date, but by the above 90-day rule.

All of this adds up to mean that Harper does not have to be a fulltime major leaguer before he hits age 21. Assuming the Nationals push his development at an advanced pace, they will have at least four seasons beginning next year for him to prove ready.