When B.J. Upton made his seemingly long-awaited full-season major league debut in 2007 at 22, he did not disappoint. Although he didn’t settle in full-time defensively at center field until the following season, his 2007 offensive performance was tremendous. Upton hit for average (.300), stole 22 bases, displayed good plate discipline (11.9% walk rate, 19.1% O-Swing), and perhaps most exciting given his age, showed very good power, with a .209 ISO and 24 home runs. A 22-year-old center fielder putting up a .387 wOBA (.300/.386/.508) seemed to be destined for superstardom.

Upton’s 2008 season was still excellent overall, as he put up 4.6 WAR while playing well in center field, improving his walk rate, lowering his strikeout rate, and stealing 44 bases. However, his power seemed to disappear, as his ISO dropped to .128 and he hit only nine home runs. Many attributed this to a shoulder injury during the season, and given that he excelled in almost every other area (.354 wOBA [.273/383/.401]), there was little reason to worry. However, in 2009, the power drought (only 11 HR, .132 ISO) continued, and coupled with a declining walk rate and a lower BABIP, Upton limped to a .310 wOBA season (.241/.313/.373).

Upton might have been seen as settling in as good defensive center fielder with an okay-ish bat, but it is easy to forget that he was only 25 to start the 2010 season. Whatever other problems he (allegedly) has had, the power has been fairly close to his 2007 level. While a low BABIP (.299) is responsible for a keeping his wOBA down to .342 (.236/.324/.427), that’s still a good number in the current offensive environment, and notably for the purposes of this post, his ISO is back up to .190 with 17 home runs.

Is this real improvement, random variation, or simply Upton finally getting his swing back after 2008’s shoulder problems? The shoulder issue is something we’ll have to set aside, but maybe we can get a bit of lead on the other two, beginning with Upton’s batted ball data. In 2007, Upton had a 19.8% Home Run-to-Fly Ball Ratio, but in 2008 that dropped to 7.4% and in 2009 to 6.8%. While his 2008 flyball rate dropped down to 30.6% from 37.6%, he still had trouble getting fly balls out of the park in 2009 despite the increase in flies to 40.3%. This season, Upton has increased his flyball rate to 42.7%, and more of them have gone out of the park — 11.9%. This is perhaps demonstrative of a change in approach.

Moreover, other data suggests that Upton has never been terribly lucky with regard to home runs. I don’t know the most recent Hit Tracker averages, but I believe that about a third of all home runs across baseball are “Just Enoughs” — that is, just barely cleared the fence. If a player has more than that number of “Just Enough” homers, they are probably getting a lucky. In 2007 only 7 of Upton’s 24 home runs were “Just Enough” homers, in 2008 3 of 9, and in 2009 3 of 11. Upton doesn’t seem to have had much luck on that score in previous seasons, or in the current season, when only 3 of Upton’s 17 home runs so far have been “Just Enoughs.” He’s hitting those homers with authority.

There are other legitimate concerns about Upton’s offense, of course — strikeouts aren’t horrible in themselves, but they remain high for Upton and might reflect a growing problem making contact. The less contact a player makes, the less chances he’ll have to hit one out of the park. These contact problem might also be related to a more aggressive plate approach — while Upton’s walk rate and O-Swing percentages remain above average, he’s swinging at more pitches outside the zone than ever before (24.9% O-Swing vs. 18.9% career). Still, whether it’s due to a change in approach, a finally healed shoulder, or a combination of the two, fans of the Rays have to be happy to see B.J. Upton’s power returning to previous levels, and there are indications that it might continue to do so.

It’s easy to forget when your favorite team is mired in one, but every team, except maybe the 2001 Mariners, slumps during the course of a season. Good teams can usually overcome these losing bouts. It’s the beauty of a 162-game season. But when those slumps come in September it can become threatening to a team’s playoff chances. As the remaining games dwindle a team has fewer chances to recover. That can render fatal an otherwise innocuous slump. The Braves appear to be in one of those slides.

A day after watching Derek Lowe pitch perhaps his best game as a Brave, the team crumbled at the feet of Livan Hernandez. That’s not all bad, considering this has been Hernandez’s best season since the Expos still existed, but when viewed in the context of the Braves’ slump it looks that much worse. The loss incensed Crag Calcaterra, noted Braves fan, who said, “I guess that means the Braves still lead the wild card race, but it’s a fact: you are not deserving of a playoff spot if you go out and get shut the hell down by Livan freakin’ Hernandez in mid-September.” When I first read that I thought it was an overreaction, but after looking at the Braves’ woes of late I’m not so sure.

Baseball Prospectus’s playoff odds report still gives the Braves a 77 percent chance of making the playoffs, whether by winning the division, 32 percent, or the Wild Card, 45 percent. That gives them far better odds than the next closest Wild Card contender, the Giants, who have a 44 percent chance of entry. An average of a million simulations gives the Braves 91.8 wins the rest of the way, which tops the Giants by 1.7 wins and even the Padres by 0.4 wins. But the simulations don’t know the exact nature of the Braves’ slump. Is it something they can battle through? Or is it of the 2007-2008 Mets ilk?

The rest of the Braves’ schedule contains plenty of opportunity. After finishing their series with the Nationals today they’ll head to New York, Philadelpha, and then Washington. That means two series against the sub-.500 teams and one against the team that sits just two games ahead of them. Philly won’t make it easy for Atlanta, though, as they’ll send Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt to the mound next week. After that, the Braves finish the season with two series at home, one against the Marlins and the final one against the Phillies again. That final series could be the key to the season.

The Phillies also finish the season with an NL East circuit, but they get Washington twice and Florida not at all after today. That probably leaves Atlanta to the Wild Card, which should still be in play during those last three days of the season. The Giants will do battle with the Padres, and there could be a playoff spot on the line there, too. The Braves, though, will be facing a comfortable Philly team that will probably want to line up its playoff rotation and make sure its starters are rested. That could give the Braves just the advantage they need.

A lot of this, of course, depends on how the Braves play in the 13 games before that final Philadelphia series. It doesn’t help that they’re down 4-0 to the Nationals as I write this. But if they can hold on and keep their lead in, or at least remain tied for, the Wild Card race between now and the season finale they could certainly make the playoffs — deservedly or not.

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ decision to trade Dan Haren for Joe Saunders and prospects was largely panned around the sabermetric community, and indeed, much of the baseball community at large. Mostly, that is because Dan Haren is just a really fantastic pitcher, but the fact that the return was two unimpressive prospects and a back-end starter like Joe Saunders simply made the trade an unacceptable squandering of resources on the part of the Diamondbacks. Saunders’s performance in Arizona to date has done nothing to dispel this notion.

Prior to the season, now 29 year old Saunders was projected for a FIP in the 4.70s by both CHONE and ZiPS, a mark that would put him well below average, but still provide value. These projections were effectively right on with Saunders up to the trade, as he posted a 4.68 FIP with the Angels. That kind of mark would place Saunders as about a 1.5 WAR pitcher over 180 innings, an total which he is close to reaching this season and reached in both 2008 and 2009.

But much like pitching in Arizona mistreated Dan Haren, it hasn’t been kind to Saunders. Unsurprisingly, with many starts at Chase Field, a homer-friendly park, Saunders’s HR/FB rate has jumped from 9.0% with the Angels to 12.5% since the trade. Despite a drop in walks, the extra home runs allowed have taken Saunders’s performance down to nearly replacement level. His 5.22 FIP has been worth all of 0.2 WAR for the Diamondbacks in his 55 innings with the club.

His ERA is a slightly more palatable 4.88, and of more encouragement to Arizona, his xFIP is at 4.89, a level that is definitively better than replacement if nothing else. CHONE’s most recent projections have him at a 4.75 “neutral ERA,” which implies he is basically still the same pitcher as he was in Anaheim, although it would not be surprising if his home run issues persist, given his career numbers and the park effects in Arizona.

Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, that pitcher isn’t going to approach what Dan Haren provided them nor what he likely would’ve provided over the next three years. Saunders isn’t cheap, either, as he’s already making $3.75 million in his first arbitration year and can probably expect a raise to the $5 million to $7 million range, despite his poor season, a number that will be awfully close to free agent market value for a player only in his second arbitration year.

Saunders hasn’t even been the “winner” that Jerry DiPoto described as one of the reasons for bringing in Saunders over Haren. Saunders has only won two of his seven decisions and has a -0.50 WPA to go along with that poor record. Joe Saunders simply hasn’t been the guy needed to justify the trade. There was never any reason to believe that he would be, and there’s no reason to believe that he will be in the future either.

Today’s edition of One Night Only is being read aloud in the voice of Larry King.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomeness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Featured Games
San Diego (10) at Colorado (7) | 3:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Clayton Richard (5) and Jorge de la Rosa (8). In his three years with the Rockies, de la Rosa has sported ERA/xFIP differences of .86, .62, and .58, respectively. My guess is that, on account of Coors Field rates as both homer-friendly (112 four-year, HR/FB factor) and hit-friendly (119 four-year, BABIP factor), that this is probably the case for a bunch of Rocky pitchers. Accordingly, it’ll help those same Rockies with respect to their NERD scores. I think this makes sense: part of NERD’s purpose — as is the case with advanced metrics, in general — is to remove a player from his context. Where Joe Briefcase looks at de la Rosa’s 2008 and sees a 4.92 ERA, Nerdy McNerderson sees a 4.06 xFIP*.
• At the team level, all the Colorado Rockies want to do is make people go to bed late. You can take that to the bank!
• You should take note of Answer Man David Brown’s interview with Platonic Man Matt Stairs. There are a number of great lines, but the good people of Bristol, Connecticut, and the proud alumni of Wheaton College are probably most excited about this exchange:

David Brown: If the Padres make the playoffs, is Chris Denorfia a lock for the Italian American Sports Hall of Fame?
Matt Stairs: When we do, yes. First ballot.

Though I don’t have a ballot — yet! — I’d probably cast one for Denorfia, who’s currently posting a 118 wRC+.

*As you probably already know, Nerdy McNerderson is of Irish descent. At least on his father’s side, he is.

New York Americans (7) at Tampa Bay (10) | 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Phil Hughes (7) and James Shields (8). Here’s something about James Shields: he has a 4.98 ERA and 4.31 FIP and 3.70 xFIP this season. His lifetime figures by those same metrics are 4.19 and 4.04 and 3.85, respectively. Curiously — I didn’t know this, at all — Tropicana field actually has a HR/FB park factor of 111. That probably goes some way towards explaining Shields’ career rate of 11.8% HR/FB.
• At the team level, a thing of interest is Tampa coach Joe Maddon’s bullpen usage. Rafael Soriano, his best relief pitcher, has the highest average Leverage Index when entering a game (gmLI), at 2.01 — which is to say, Soriano is pitching the majority of his innings in the most important situations. Jason Collette of The Process Report can tell you more about Maddon, Joe Girardi, and Relief Aces.
• You should take note of how James Shields’ “pitches backwards” — i.e. uses his fastball to set up his offspeed stuff (particularly his sweet changepiece). You should also use the term “pitching backwards” in front of your friends, the ladies, whomever, in an effort to impress them.

Toronto (7) at Baltimore (2) | 7:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Kyle Drabek (20*) and Brad Bergesen (3). Question: Does Kyle Drabek really merit a NERD score of 20? Follow-Up Question: Is it even possible to score a 20 on something that’s purposely scaled 0-10? Answer: No, not probably. Follow-up Answer: Sure, if Carson Cistulli says so. Here’s the deal, really: Kyle Drabek is a prospect making his major league debut. I’ve experimented with a couple ways of representing this in the NERD scores. This is another of those experiments. Maybe a debut is worth 20, a second start is worth 15, a third start 10?
• At the team level, Baltimore appears to be having a disastrous season defensively, posting a collective -35.6 UZR that places them fourth from bottom in the majors. Some of that is Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins, who are now departed. Some of that is also Adam Jones, who’s athletic and probably a nice guy, but is also probably not a center fielder.
• You should take note of how Brad Bergesen is Sergio Mitre. Bergesen this year: 143.0 IP, 4.41 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 49.0% GB, 4.91 xFIP. Mitre: 49.1 IP, 4.56 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, 51.0% GB, 4.53 xFIP. Yesyesyes, most of Mitre’s innings have come as a reliever, but he’s also posting K/BB numbers pretty similar to his career levels. The real consideration is this: Is being Sergio Mitre a bad thing? Answer: No, probably not. Were he able to stay healthy, Mitre would be a perfectly serviceable starter. Bergesen, only 25, appears to be on that same career path. His upside is almost nil, but if you put a an above-average infield defense behind him, it’s possible that his ERA creeps below 4.00 for a couple seasons.

Read the rest of this entry »

When the Atlanta Braves signed Derek Lowe before the 2009 season, they probably never envisioned him producing strikeout totals that mimic the Johnsons of the pitching world (Walter, Randy, or Josh, no difference). Predicting low whiff totals turns out to be a good expectation because Lowe would have disappointed; instead the team can stand back staring amusingly at his most recent box score like the rest of us.

On Monday night, Lowe managed to strike out 12 Washington Nationals within eight innings. Such a factoid was lost in the marquee matchups with playoff implications but 12 K’s stand out for Lowe in particular as it represents a career high in a single game. In fact, Lowe had previously struck out double digit batters in only two games. For comparison’s sake, Brandon Webb has more than a dozen games of that variety. Lowe is a sinkerballer, sure, and one who has spent time in the bullpen as well, but he’s just not a strikeout guy.

The notables include most of the Nationals’ lineup, but Ian Desmond contributed heavily to Lowe’s night as the youngster struck out three times on 15 pitches. Mike Morse fell twice (in three at-bats) on 11 pitches and Roger Bernadina twice on 12 pitches spread out over three at-bats as well. It was just one of those nights for the Nationals’ lineup, as Billy Wagner would strike out the side in the ninth on 12 pitches himself.

All told, Lowe recorded a .254 WPA, one of his better starts this season and a stark contrast from two times through the rotation ago, when he recorded one of the worst starts of his career.

Understanding that writers pen some articles purely for narrative is key. Jon Paul Morosi filed essentially a game report about the Rays/Yankees affair last night, framing the starting pitcher matchup as one of dueling Cy Young contenders. Nothing big to see here, but Morosi ropes Felix Hernandez into the mix so as to use a few quotes about how the Cy Young winner should come from a team in the playoff hunt performing well in games that matter.

If Morosi (and others) believe the latter requirement to be true, then their narrative should also expand its scope to include Francisco Liriano — who, like David Price and CC Sabathia, should shine as one of the game’s most excellent lefties on the postseason stage. Since the second half has begun – and let’s face it, if Liriano imploded afterwards, folks would say his season only excelled in the meaningless portions — Liriano has been better than his competitors. Even by old school means:

Liriano 10 GS, 7-0 W-L, 2.22 ERA, 2.95 SO/BB
Sabathia 12 GS, 7-3 W-L, 2.93 ERA, 2.78 SO/BB
Price 11 GS, 5-2 W-L, 3.28 ERA, 2.23 SO/BB

As many wins, lower ERA, and a better strikeout-to-walk ratio. Did these games matter? The Twins started the second half with a playoff probability just under 30% (according to CoolStandings.com) whereas Tampa Bay and New York had likelihoods over 75%. Three of Liriano’s post-break starts have come against the White Sox – the team battling Minnesota for the division crown – and he won each of them.

Liriano is not Ambrose Bierce. He is not getting lost in a revolutionary war between the ERA and FIP crowds because this season has all that and more. The innings gap is the only explainable reasoning for his absence; and even then, Liriano and Price’s innings totals are closer than Price’s and Sabathia’s. Small market, big payroll, fat stats, and a baby face; if everyone wants to give this award to a playoff-bound southpaw, why not give it to the one who combines the best aspects about Price and Sabathia’s stories?

The Pirates currently sit at 48-95 and hold the worst record in the National League by 9 games and the worst record in the Major Leagues by 8 games. However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel for Pittsburgh: young players like Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen, and Pedro Alvarez all have star potential and could be the core that brings Pittsburgh out from their 18 season period of incompetence. All of that talent, however, is in the form of position players, and that, at least partially, explains why the Pirates have allowed 766 runs, the most in the league. Now, in the form of James McDonald, the Pirates finally have a pitcher who at least looks the part of an ace.

Back at the trade deadline, I wrote that the Pirates were big winners. A big reason for that was McDonald, who was acquired for only Octavio Dotel in what I consider to be the biggest steal of trading season. McDonald has rattled off eight fantastic starts for the Pirates since his arrival, striking out 44 batters in 49 innings, walking 18 and allowing only one home run en route to a 3.49 ERA and a fantastic 2.66 FIP.

This comes on the heels of similar numbers in AAA in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. It’s very unlikely that McDonald continues to suppress home runs at the crazy rate that he has so far, particularly given a tiny 30% ground ball rate, but his xFIP of 4.09 is still encouraging, and it’s also unlikely that his ground ball rate remains so low. He had a 44% ground ball rate in his first MLB stint (63 innings) and had a 39% ground ball rate in the minors, and so that rate should climb to around 35% as he pitches more major league innings.

McDonald’s peripheral numbers are actually quite similar to those of hard throwing left handed pitcher David Price of the Rays. Both have K/9 rates around 8.0 and walk rates around 3.5. McDonald has allowed fewer HRs this year in his small sample, but that’s unlikely to continue, as Price has a ground ball percentage in the mid-40s. McDonald’s fastball averages 92.5 MPH to Price’s 94.5, and Price’s arsenal contains a slider whereas McDonald relies on the curveball and changeup as his offspeed pitches. Both draw similar amounts of swinging strikes, with Price at 9.0% on his career and McDonald at 8.8%

Eight starts is nowhere near enough to say that McDonald can be an ace or that he’s the next David Price. Still, he’s shown tremendous potential and has a minor league track record to back it up. The Pirates haven’t seen much in the way of starting pitching talent in a long time. It’s looking like James McDonald will be the first step for the Pirates in their quest to put together a playoff-quality starting rotation.

Sometimes a team signs a player because they covet him. This is the case with Josh Beckett and the Red Sox, as we discussed yesterday. Other times a team signs a player because he fits into the team’s roster building strategy. The Sox signed John Lackey this off-season because he was the best available pitcher and therefore fit into the pitching and defense schematic. The plan seemed sound. The Red Sox would attack the league with four good to great starters — plus wild card Daisuke Matsuzaka — and back them up with good to great defense at nearly every position. As evidenced by the team’s record and place in the standings, the plan failed. Lackey has certainly played a part in its unraveling.

Signing Lackey seemed like a sound decision at the time. After gaining fame for his World Series Game 7 start in 2002 he went on to pitch five straight seasons with at least 198.1 innings, and in the last three he kept his ERA at 3.56 or below and his FIP in about the same range. He did miss the starts of the 2008 and 2009 seasons, but pitched well upon his returns, notching 163.1 and 176.1 innings with decent ERAs. In 2009 he had a 3.83 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and 3.92 xFIP, which were all pretty close to his career averages. The Sox knew they weren’t getting an ace, but they figured that with a superb defense behind him he could perhaps outperform his peripherals.

In August Matthew described Lackey’s struggles against lefties, a factor that certainly contributed to his poor season. Also contributing is his poor work on the road. In 93 innings away from Fenway Park Lackey has a 4.55 ERA, 4.30 FIP, and 4.71 xFIP, compared to a 4.36 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 4.08 xFIP at home. Overall his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up, both at career worsts, and his BABIP, .327, is the highest since 2005. His swinging strike rate is down almost two percentage points from last season and for the first time since 2004 it sits below league average. That can be traced to his O-Swing%, which, while slightly higher than last year, is much worse when compared to the league average. I could continue, but suffice it to say that Lackey has declined in many ways this season.

When looking at baseball players there is an urge to find comparisons. We see this on Baseball Reference pages in two forms, one a general comparison and another comparison to players of the same age. Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA formula uses comparable players when computing its projections. And, of course, there’s always the “he’s a young/a poor man’s/the next” player comparison. For the most part we see these comparisons between players with similar skill sets. But with Lackey the most useful comparison might not be someone who shares his size and pitch repertoire, but rather one who has experienced similar career numbers. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, the best comparison to Lackey might be A.J. Burnett.

At first it might seem silly to compare the two. Lackey hasn’t thrown fewer than 163.1 innings since 2002 and he has very good control. Burnett has spent plenty of time on the DL since his debut in 1999 and generally has terrible control. Yet as Tommy Bennet showed in December, they had similar career rate stats when they signed similar five-year, $82.5 million contracts. Burnett actually came in a notch above, a 3.81 career FIP against Lackey’s 3.90. Burnett also came out ahead when Bennett compared the weighted averages of their three years before signing long-term contracts, but the two are still close.

Both Burnett and Lackey experienced similar changes with their new clubs. In 2009 Burnett saw his strikeout rate drop, his walk rate jump, and his home run rate increase by a decent amount. A BABIP dip, which put him closer to his career average, helped stave off a disastrous season. Lackey saw the same dip in strikeout rate and spike in walk rate, though with BABIP and home run rate he experienced the opposite effect. Lackey’s ERA has jumped, though his FIP isn’t that much higher than last year. Burnett’s FIP increased significantly, but his ERA remained consistent with his career average. Where both pitchers experienced an increase is in xFIP.

Save for his injury shortened 2003 season, Burnett had never experienced an xFIP over 3.75 — and even then it came in 2002. When he made the move to the Yankees it jumped to 4.29. Since 2004 Lackey has kept his xFIP around 4.00, but in his first year with Boston it has increased to a career high 4.39. Lackey can only hope that, because his xFIP didn’t increase to the same degree that Burnett’s did, that he doesn’t experience a similar sophomore season in Boston as Burnett did in New York. This year Burnett’s xFIP has further increased to 4.60, which matches his FIP and is a bit below his 5.13 ERA.

Lackey does have a few things going for him that might help him avoid the same fate as Burnett. He’s almost two years younger, so we might not see his stuff decline in the same we we have seen from Burnett. He also has historically displayed more control, so if that comes back next season he should be back in form. Burnett might have had his worst season control-wise in 2009, but his control wasn’t that good in previous seasons. But considering the similarities between the two, it has to give Boston a scare that Lackey has performed so poorly in the first year of his contract.

After another victory (and a Cardinals’ loss) last night, the Reds’ playoff odds are up to 97 percent. They hold a seven game lead in the NL Central with 18 games to play, and can comfortably begin to look forward to the playoffs. Barring an epic collapse, they’re going to be playing baseball in October as division champions. Now, all they have to do is figure out what their playoff rotation might look like.

It’s a little weird for a team with such a strong certainty of making the post-season to have no real idea of who might take the hill for them in a few weeks, but this is the situation that the Reds find themselves in. More than anything else, they need to spend the rest of the regular season figuring out who to hand the ball to.

The top two spots are easy: Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo will start the first two games of any Reds playoff series, in some order. Who will go after that is anyone’s guess, however.

Right now, the guys pitching after those two in the rotation are Travis Wood and Homer Bailey. Both are enjoying some success, but are early in their careers and certainly won’t have the “proven veteran” label that managers love to have when the season is on the line. Wood’s ERA is a lot better, but in actuality, he and Bailey have pitched in nearly identical ways: their walk rates, strikeout rates, and home run rates are all very similar.

You would think that, if forced to choose between the two, Wood would have the edge based on his much lower ERA, but since returning to the club in mid-August, Bailey has been one of the team’s best pitchers. Meanwhile, Wood has faded a bit after a brilliant beginning to his big league career, and has only gone more than five innings in one of his last four starts. Managers are big on trends, and Bailey is certainly on an upward track at the moment, while Wood appears to be regressing. That could tilt things in favor of the right-hander if Dusty Baker feels like he has to choose between them.

Given that those two have the lowest FIPs of the Reds’ group of starters, you could argue that Wood/Bailey shouldn’t be an either/or situation, but that both have earned rotation spots. However, the Reds almost certainly need to leave a rotation spot open for Edinson Volquez. Even though his season has been up and down as he attempts to return to full strength after arm surgery, he dominated the Pirates (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K) in his first start since being recalled from the minors, and when he’s on, he’s the best arm on the staff. Unfortunately, he’s been off more than he’s be on this year, and his recent performance comes with the caveat that it was against Pittsburgh.

That’s five names for four spots, and that doesn’t even touch on Aaron Harang (who could start, but almost certainly won’t). Of the five, only Wood is a left-hander, which may play in his favor depending on the match-ups. Clearly, though, much is still to be settled, and how the team’s starters fare down the stretch could go a long way to influencing who gets the ball in October.