On Friday, we ran a poll asking who you’d vote for the AL Cy Young Award. With 5,500 votes in, the votes were decisive, to say the least.

Felix Hernandez captured over 60 percent of the votes, and no one else was even close. Francisco Liriano finished second with just under 11 percent, while CC Sabathia came in third at a bit over 9 percent. Cliff Lee was fourth at 7 percent, while David Price rounded out the top five at just over 4 percent. Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver, and Jon Lester were essentially non-factors – we probably could have left them off the ballot without seeing any real change in the outcome.

There are a few interesting thing about the results, to me. I was surprised by the measure with which Felix dominated the voting, honestly. As often as the FanGraphs crowd is referred to as “stat zombies”, the perception is that our authors and readers just look at the numbers and make no adjustments beyond what the leaderboard says, yet the guy who dominated the voting doesn’t lead the league in any of the “FanGraphs Stats” – WAR, FIP, xFIP, or WPA.

Cliff Lee is first in WAR, yet finished a distant fourth, as voters presumably held his recent struggles and higher ERA against him. Francisco Liriano is first in both FIP and xFIP, but only 1 reader out of 10 gave him their vote, likely because of his lower innings total and his higher ERA. And perhaps most surprisingly, CC Sabathia finished third, even though he’s not appreciably better than the also-rans in anything other than Win-Loss record.

Sabathia ranks 15th in FIP, 11th in xFIP, and 10th in WAR, yet he did significantly better than guys like Jon Lester and Jered Weaver, who have him beat in most of the “advanced metrics”. Let’s compare Lester and Sabathia, for instance, as both play in the AL East and are the aces of large market, nationally prominent clubs.

BB/9: Sabathia (2.84) over Lester (3.36)
K/9: Lester (9.69) over Sabathia (7.32)
HR/9: Lester (0.59) over Sabathia (0.78)
FIP: Lester (3.09) over Sabathia (3.62)
xFIP: Lester (3.26) over Sabathia (3.86)
WAR: Lester (5.0) over Sabathia (4.0)

Sabathia has the lower walk rate, but Lester’s huge advantage in strikeouts and lower HR rate more than cancels that out. It would be hard to build a case that Sabathia has outpitched Lester based on the numbers above. However, when you look at two traditional metrics, we can see why Sabathia got so many more votes than Lester.

ERA: Sabathia (3.14) over Lester (3.26)
Innings: Sabathia (209) over Lester (182)

Sabathia has a marginally better ERA than Lester and he’s thrown nearly 30 more innings to boot, which is why he’s considered a frontrunner for the award while Lester is never seriously brought up in conversation. Even among our readership, Sabathia dominates Lester with 518 votes to Lester’s 69. While our stats show that Lester has been better, our readers prefer CC’s quantity of innings with essentially the same rate of run prevention, and don’t really seem to care that the difference is almost entirely driven by BABIP.

I would be tempted to chalk this up to the power of the narrative, where people were voting for Sabathia because the media has kept him at the forefront of the discussion, but we see this same rejection of DIPS theory in the vote totals for Hernandez, Liriano, and Lee. Even though you’re spending your Friday afternoon reading FanGraphs, most of you guys still seem to vote along the lines of innings and ERA. To me, that’s interesting.

Perhaps the divide between the traditional media and people who like nerd stats is not as big as the generally perception. In the end, both camps appear to prefer results to process when it comes to handing out awards. The only question now is whether the baseball writers agree that results can be judged without leaning heavily on Win-Loss record as a factor. If they’ve come to the same conclusions as our readers, then King Felix is line for a new crown.

In the comments section of Friday’s article, reader Justin asked for “a description of the environments of the leagues in MiLB.” Considering the importance of contextualizing every event in the minors, even while this ground may be well-trodden, it’s territory worth returning t0. A couple weeks ago, I did a post on the different ballpark environments in the Florida State League, which will work as a framework for the rest of the series. Today, I will look at the leagues relative to each other, and, in an on-going series, slowly tackle each league more in-depth: talking about the stadiums, and divisions, that are apt to favor either a hitter or pitcher. It should serve as an important introduction to an offseason of prospect analysis.

To keep the spirit of introduction alive, let’s begin with a review of the different full-season levels of the minors, and the respective leagues at each level:

Triple-A: International League (14 teams), Pacific Coast League (16).
Double-A: Eastern League (12), Southern League (10), Texas League (8).
High-A: California League (10), Carolina League (8), Florida State League (12).
Low-A: Midwest League (16), South Atlantic League (14).

I don’t think I have to remind that each Major League team has an affiliate at every level. The league abbreviations are generally just the first letter of each word in the league (example: FSL), though the California League is CAL, the Carolina League is CAR, and the Midwest League is MWL. Sometimes, you’ll see the International League abbreviated to INT rather than IL. Moving past the really familiar, here’s a look at the average performance at each level this season — and while more years of data is always better, I would then really be piggy-backing off previous extensive work on the subject.

Level    R/G   AVG/OBP/SLG   ISO   BB%    K%    BABIP
Low-A   4.63   257/328/381   124   8.5   20.4    .314
HighA   4.62   263/332/391   128   8.2   19.8    .318
DoubA   4.55   261/334/392   131   8.9   18.8    .309
TripA   4.89   270/340/422   151   8.7   18.1    .313

There are some signs here of the developmental ladder at work. The strikeout rate goes down as players move up through the minors, with hitters seemingly improving at a higher rate than the pitchers. They are also hitting for more power, as the Isolated Power improves, too. I expected to see a gradual decrease in BABIP, to reflect an improvement in fielders, but it works as an example of why we need to get out our microscopes. As you’ll see in a second, the California League BABIP is .328, so it skews the High-A data above the Low-A. And we would see the improvement in pitchers with a decrease in runs per game if not for the Pacific Coast League (5.22 R/G) throwing off our data.

Therefore, the next logical step is to break this down by league. Let’s start with the aforementioned PCL and their Triple-A brethren, the International League.

League    R/G   AVG/OBP/SLG   ISO   BB%    K%    BABIP
PCL      5.22   277/348/432   155   8.9   17.4    .318
IL       4.51   263/330/410   147   8.4   18.8    .307

In 2010, the PCL was the best hitting environment of any professional league. The Isolated Power was higher than the California League, the strikeout rate was the lowest in the minor leagues, and the BABIP was higher than we’d expect from AAA fielders. While the International League has a low R/G mark, it also has an Isolated Power essentially equal to the Cal League. Hitters have matured, but so have pitchers, cutting down on their walk rates relative to Double-A.

Speaking of, next we move to the three Double-A leagues, which lack the huge differences that leagues in the other levels see.

League    R/G   AVG/OBP/SLG   ISO   BB%    K%    BABIP
TEX      4.48   260/334/387   127   9.1   18.4    .307
SL       4.52   263/337/390   127   9.0   19.1    .315
EL       4.63   259/332/397   138   9.8   18.8    .305

While the Texas League has the reputation of a hitters league, and played as the most hitter-friendly in AA from 2007-2009, it produced the least runs of the three leagues this year. The Eastern League, the most pitcher-friendly AA league in Inaz’ study, produced the most offense. The difference is found entirely in Isolated Power, where the EL was high. Whether this is a one-year blip, or the result of changing offense environments (read: new stadiums or organizations) will remain to be seen. The Southern League seems pretty neutral — perhaps a touch pitcher-friendly, but also had a higher BABIP than I would have thought.

Both the most- and least-friendly environments are found in High-A, with the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and hitter-friendly California League. Found in between the two is the Carolina League. Check it out:

League    R/G   AVG/OBP/SLG   ISO   BB%    K%    BABIP
FSL      4.18   255/324/364   109   8.1   20.0    .312
CAR      4.53   260/330/388   128   8.3   19.8    .314
CAL      5.21   275/344/423   148   8.4   19.6    .328

The Carolina League played more neutral than usual this year, usually leaning a little towards pitchers. The California League is simply ridiculous, with an environment easy for hitters and hard for fielders. It’s intimating confines probably explain the small rise we see in BB% relative to the other leagues, too. The Florida State League kills offense at almost the same rate the Cal League promoted it, with even a higher strikeout rate than the other leagues.

Finally, let’s check in on Low-A, with one league that I detailed on Friday.

League    R/G   AVG/OBP/SLG   ISO   BB%    K%    BABIP
SAL      4.54   256/323/377   121   7.8   20.4    .313
MWL      4.72   257/333/384   127   9.0   20.5    .315

The Midwest League has always been one of the more pitcher-friendly leagues, but this year, it was easier for hitters than the South Atlantic League. The biggest difference comes in terms of BB%, which signals to me that it might be the result of a specific talent pool rather than an ongoing trend. It’s just possible the South Atlantic League had better pitchers, or the Midwest League better hitters, then they usually do. Probably both, and we’ll talk about that when we detail their leagues.

This is where I will leave things today. We know that the Pacific Coast and California Leagues are the games most hitter-friendly. The Florida State League is the least-friendly. The International League leans towards pitchers too, as does the Southern League. The Texas League confuses me. But our answer to most questions will be answered when I break down the league’s stadiums one-by-one, which is where the series is headed next.

Word out of Chicago is that Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez might reject a $14.6 million player option for the 2011 season. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which nearly any person would turn down $16.6 million in guaranteed money ($2 million from a buyout of a 2012 team option). It’s especially difficult when said person carried a .297 OBP into play yesterday. Ramirez has played as a below average player in 2010 so far, compiling 0.9 WAR in 441 plate appearances. That kind of performance would be good for closer to $4 million on the free agent market than $14 million.

But there are two important things to consider with this situation. First of all, Ramirez is quite likely much better than he’s been this year. ZiPS projects him for a .371 wOBA going forward, well above the league average and fantastic for a third baseman. A .371 wOBA wouldn’t put him on the 4.5-5.5 WAR level that he was at from 2006-2008 and would have been in 2009 if not for injury, but it could be somewhere in the 3.5-4.5 WAR range, which would put his market value right around that $14.6 million dollar range.

Second of all, Ramirez would be making a substantial amount of money next year, but he would also risk complete collapse in 2011, which would make his current contract his last contract. Even if teams don’t buy the rebirth imagined above, it’s hard to imagine that teams wouldn’t still look at him as an average player. Ramirez still has big time power, with 22 HRs and a .211 ISO. His defense is probably below average – all of the systems available here on FanGraphs have him below average in 2008, 2009, and 2010 when available. Still, with that kind of bat, his defense would have to be exceptionally bad for him to produce at a below average level, barring another season with a .246 batting average on balls in play. At that level, it would be quite easy to see Ramirez earning something like a 3-year, $27 million contract, and if his past seasons are given more (and proper) weight, he could see something as high as 3 years, $40 million, both paying much more than his current player option.

The potential for Ramirez to forego $16 million likely has some in Chicago scratching their heads, both around the Cubs organization and in the streets of the North Side. But when you consider the length of his contract, his current skill level, and the possibility of collapse with age, it may make sense for Ramirez to go for another long term contract while he has the chance. There’s a good chance that Ramirez’s best option, in terms of dollar amounts, would be to take his player option and then go for another contract for the 2012 season and beyond. If Ramirez wants to avoid the risk of collapse, however, as odd as it may sound, his best option may be to test the free agent market a year earlier and eschew the guaranteed money.

This Monday edition of One Night Only bears a resemblance to last Tuesday’s.

It’s either due (a) to a tear in the fabric of the space/time continuum or (b) to the five-man rotation.

You decide, America!

(Games listed in order of likely awesomness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Pittsburgh (6) at New York Nationals (3) | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Pirates: James McDonald (8)
41.0 IP, 8.78 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, .340 BABIP, 34.8% GB, 2.1% HR/FB, 3.92 xFIP (w/ PIT)

Mets: Dillon Gee (10*)
161.1 IP, 9.20 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 4.01 FIP (Triple-A)

A Brief Apology
On the one hand, it makes some sense for the baseballing enthusiast to turn his attention towards the various playoff races currently unfolding. The NL West, for example, features three teams all within 1.5 games of each other. I don’t think it’s necessary to elaborate upon the appeal of that.

On the other hand, for the teams who’re very clearly not in the hunt for a red — or any other colored — October, the end is nigh. These last three or so weeks of the regular season represent our last chance to see the players who’ll compose the majority of next year’s rosters.

For some teams (like the Mariners, for example, or Astros), there’s no real urgency, on account of how they (a) haven’t been particularly active with their September call-ups, nor do they (b) feature much youth in the first place. (Although Brett Wallace is of some interest, I assume.) For others, though, like the Pirates, there are a number of players who are still very likely improving before our eyes.

Gee Thang
Dillon Gee was featured in last Tuesday’s edition of One Night Only. He was making his major league debut then, and it turned out pretty good: 7.0 IP, 26 TBF, 4 K, 3 BB, 10 GB on 18 BIP. Also, he got through those 7.0 IP in just 86 pitches.

One of the questions we considered then was what Gee’s strikeout rate might look like in the majors. As you can see above, he struck out over a batter per inning at Triple-A Buffalo. But he’s also never distinguished himself with great stuff.

What did a start teach us?

For one, Gee throws four pitches: a 90-91 mph fastball; a change; a standard-issue slider; and a kinda loopy, 73-75 mph curve. Per Texas Leaguers, he actually managed to get whiffs on four of 12 sliders and two of 12 curves. Those are both good figures, if in a limited sample. Also, quite frankly, it’s a little suprising.

To these barely qualified eyes, it was actually Gee’s fastball that appeared most effective — not as a swing-and-miss pitch, at all, but as a pitch with some movement to throw for strikes. Also, anecdotally speaking, Gee appears pretty good at keeping it down. Overall, he got 10 GB on 18 BIP.

Lucas Duda Watch
Through 32 PA: .036/.156/.071 (.056 BABIP), .127 wOBA, -29 wRC+.

Carlos Beltran
In September (33 PA): .325/.394/.571 (.320 BABIP), .423 wOBA, 169 wRC+.

Washington (6) at Atlanta (5) | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Nationals: Yunesky Maya (10*)
MLB Debut (9/7): 5.0 IP, 21 TBF, 3 K, 2 BB, 4 GB on 16 BIP.

Braves: Derek Lowe (5)
169.0 IP, 5.80 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, .310 BABIP, 57.7% GB, 13.7% HR/FB, 3.91 xFIP

I Wish I Maya
Maya is the 29-year-old Cuban defector who made his major league debut opposite Dillon Gee last Tuesday. He was less effective than Gee on that particular occasion, allowing 4 R (to Gee’s 1 R) and taking the loss.

However that start might’ve turned out, though, Maya is the more aesthetically pleasing of the two. His fastball’s nothing to write home about. (Although, to be fair, I don’t know that I’ve ever actually sat down to write a letter about the finer points of any major leaguer’s fastball. Conclusion: “writing home about” it may not be a great litmus test in this instance.)

In any case, it’s Maya’s secondary offerings for which the enthusiast should watch. Maya throws a curveball that both (a) leaves his hand at about 20 fewer mph than his fastball and (b) is well-disguised.

The slider is notable, too. It’s not a Daniel Bard-type thing where he (i.e. Maya) simply overpowers the batter with it. Rather, it appears to be the definition of late-breaking, appearing to be pushed slant-ways to the catcher’s right. If I’m remembering correctly, he threw a couple nice ones up under the hands of lefty batters.

Danny Espinosa Watch
Through 31 PA: .310/.355/.724 (.286 BABIP), .453 wOBA, 187 wRC+. He was OPS-ing about 1.900 a couple days ago, so these are his numbers while in a slump.

San Diego (10) at Colorado (6) | 8:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Padres: Cory Luebke (9*)
57.2 IP, 6.87 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, 3.91 FIP (Triple-A)

Rockies: Jeff Francis (6)
92.2 IP, 5.73 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, .310 BABIP, 46.6% GB, 7.3% HR/FB, 3.95 xFIP

Playoff Note
On August 22nd, Colorado was 11 games out of first.

On August 27th, they were still 10 games out of first.

Entering play tonight, the Rockies are only 1.5 games out of first.

A Brief Note
At 3:10pm ET, in Kansas City, 30-year-old Bobby Cramer will make his major league debut for the A’s.

Here’s his line for Triple-A Sacramento this year: 41.2 IP, 7.56 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 2.31 FIP. Per StatCorner, Cramer’s posted groundball rates in the low-50% area.

Go, Bobby Cramer.

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To the best of my knowledge, nobody has appointed me as president of label assignments, but I think calling Brian Wilson a great reliever is a worthwhile argument. He holds a 3.04 FIP over his 253-inning career and a 2.13 FIP this season in 65 innings. Wilson might be the best reliever in the National League and if he’s not, he’s probably still worthy of discussion.

It’s Friday night and the Giants are playing the Padres. It’s the top of the ninth inning with the Giants batting. The bags are full as they attempt to build on a one-run lead. Wilson – who entered in the eighth to record two outs with a runner on – is due up. Buster Posey is available to pinch hit – although evidently the Giants wanted to avoid playing him at all costs – and the bottom of the Padres’ lineup is due up in the bottom half of the inning. Righty Ryan Webb is on the mound. The Giants do not pinch hit and Wilson hits into an unorthodox double play (Juan Uribe was called for interference after grabbing the catcher’s leg while sliding by at the plate).

The Giants won the game, quenching any potential steam from the decision, but wasting time on a moot point has never stopped me before, so here we go. In The Book, Tom Tango (and company) found the difference in conversion percentage with at least a three-run lead in the ninth between a “great” pitcher and an “average” pitcher to be 2%. The Giants had used a few relievers on the night, but still had someone like, say, Jeremy Affeldt available for duty.

Now, the obvious thing here is there is no guarantee the Giants score a run no matter who bats. Wilson had nine career plate appearances in the bigs entering Friday and had never actually reached base. Maybe Wilson puts on laser shows during batting practice … but I doubt that. My assumption is that just about anyone is an upgrade. Here are the players on the Giants’ active roster who had not been used in the game, with their season-long wOBA (not including players with fewer than 50 plate appearances to give Bruce Bochy even more breathing room) taxed to include the 10% pinch hitter penalty:

Travis Ishikawa .273
Pablo Sandoval .284
Eugenio Velez .258

In order to justify not making the switch, one must believe that either: A) Wilson is a good hitting pitcher; B) the rest of the Giants’ pen is horri-awful; or C) both. Perhaps my initial reaction to bury Bochy in a snarkophagus was too strong, but I still think pinch-hitting is the best decision in the situation.

Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re looking at the National League Central division.

Previously, we looked at:
The American League East
The National League West
The American League Central

The Milwaukee Brewers
Alcides Escobar | Shortstop
2010 Level: MLB
Age: 23

It’s been a disappointing offensive season for Escobar, who currently has a wOBA of just .282. His triple-slash line stands at .247/.298/.344 in 453 at-bats. The shortstop’s offensive game historically centers around hitting for average and stealing bases. Along with the sub-.250 average, Escobar has just 10 steals. Whoops. Because he has little or no power (.097 ISO), the 23-year-old needs to get on-base and use his legs if he’s going to have any offensive value whatsoever. Defensively, Escobar has a reputation for being a very good fielder but his UZR rating has been fairly modest throughout his MLB career so far.

The Cincinnati Reds
Yonder Alonso | First Baseman
2010 Level: Double-A/Triple-A
Age: 23

Alonso started the year in double-A but moved up to triple-A after 31 games. He’s played pretty well at the senior level and posted a triple-slash line of .296/.355/.470 in 406 at-bats. The first baseman had a .175 ISO rate, and that power rating is a tad shy for a prototypical first baseman but it’s along the lines of what we should expect from Alonso. After posting outstanding walk rates for much of his career, this former first round pick’s rate dropped below 10% for the first time in three years. With MLB incumbent first baseman Joey Votto having a MVP-type season, the organization has given Alonso some time in the outfield but it’s a stretch.

The Chicago Cubs
Andrew Cashner | Pitcher
2010 Level: Double-A/Triple-A/MLB
Age: 24

The Cubs organization has made some interesting choices with its pitching prospects this season. Cashner opened the year in the starting rotation and was very good. The club then abruptly switched him to the bullpen (a role he held in college) and called him up to the Majors where he’s posted a 5.52 FIP in 43 relief appearances. Cashner has had a real problem finding the plate while coming out of the bullpen and currently has a walk rate of 5.19 BB/9. He’s also been prone to the home-run ball (1.45 HR/9), which was not an issue in the minors at all. Cashner still holds a lot of promise as his fastball is sitting around 96 mph with good sink. He just needs to command it better.

The Houston Astros
Jason Castro | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 23

When it comes to catching prospects, the Astros organization seems snake-bitten when it comes to MLB performances. After J.R. Towles washed out (again), the club turned to former No. 1 pick Castro, but he’s struggled mightily with the bat and currently has a wOBA of just .264. His triple-slash line sits at .209/.291/.294 in 163 at-bats. On the plus side, he’s hit the ball with some authority (22.0 LD%) and he’s taking his fair share of free passes (10.4 BB%). With a .254 BABIP, his luck is sure to turn around to some degree. Behind the dish, he’s helping the pitching staff by gunning down base runners (40.0 CS%).

The Pittsburgh Pirates
Pedro Alvarez | Third Baseman
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 23

It’s been a youthful season in Pittsburgh with the graduations of Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and Alvarez. The third baseman has shown some warts this season despite providing decent power (.180 ISO). Alvarez currently has a strikeout rate of 36.8 K%, which is not going to get it done at the MLB level. His triple-slash line currently sits at .241/.319/.421 in 266 at-bats. Youth is still on his side, but his value is taking another hit… this time on defense. Alvarez, who has as negative UZR and a poor fielding reputation, will most certainly be moving to first base in the near future.

The St. Louis Cardinals
Lance Lynn | Starting Pitcher
2010 Level: Triple-A
Age: 23

Last year, I avoided including 2009 draft picks on the 2010 Top 10 lists (which is a practice that will be abandoned for 2011). As such, Lynn was at the top of the list rather than Shelby Miller. Lynn went on to have a modest 2010 season by posting a 4.43 FIP in 164.0 triple-A innings. Clearly, he’s durable but Lynn is more of a workhorse No. 3 or 4 starter than an ace. He typically produces a respectable strikeout rate (7.74 K/9 in 2010) along with a good ground-ball rate, although it dipped to 44% this season. Lynn could sneak onto the back-end of the Cardinals’ starting rotation in 2011 and is a good complement to the likes of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Jaime Garcia.

Up Next: The American League West

I’ve been having a lot of fun with these Contract Crowdsourcing pieces, but there’s no reason we have to limit ourselves to just estimating free agent wealth. Since it’s the hot topic of the moment, I thought I’d let you guys weigh in on the AL Cy Young race, which is turning into a referendum on the value of “wins” for pitchers. The narrative being told at the moment is that Felix Hernandez is, by far, the most deserving candidate, and that only CC Sabathia’s win total might stop him from winning the award.

Of course, Felix isn’t blowing the field away like Josh Hamilton is in the MVP race. He’s had a great year, but he’s not the only pitcher having a great year. You can make an argument for pitchers other than Felix without resorting to craziness. So, I figured we’d put it to you guys. If the season ended today, who is your American League Cy Young Award winner?

This edition of One Night Only has gotch yer back.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Friday, September 10th
Philadelphia (4) at New York Nationals (3), 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Roy Halladay (10) and Jenrry Mejia (N/A). The former you’ll know on account of he toys with opposing batters’ emotions. The latter is a prospect (ranked #3 on Hulet’s preseason top-10 list) who’s been handled curiously this year by the Mets. In 32.2 major league innings, his K and BB numbers are leaving a lot to be desired (5.23 K/9, 4.68 BB/9), but he’s sporting a 63.2% groundball rate.
• At the team level, the Phils are third in the whole majors in stolen base runs by linear weights, with +9.02 runs*. They’re 86-for-103 on the season, with Shane Victorino (31-for-34) and Jimmy Rollins (17-for-18) leading the way.
• You should take note of Lucas Duda — not so much because his surname sounds like a hilarious euphemism (although that can’t be ignored) but also because he’s only 24 and slashed .314/.389/.610 in 298 Triple-A PAs. StatCorner has him with a minor league 124 wOBA+, suggesting it’s not some sort of park-related bidness.

*Exactly 1000 caveats apply to this statement. The Phils are super efficient, is the point.

Saturday, September 11th
Tampa Bay (10) at Toronto (8), 1:07pm
• Note, first, that this game isn’t on FOX, which means you can watch it.
• Note, second, that this game is being played in Canada, which means you might escape maudlin and overwrought tributes to the events of September 11th, 2001. Was that particular day absolutely horrible and terrifying? Yes. Is it pleasant to hear Joe Buck wax pious about it? Absolutely not.
• Your starting pitchers are Wade Davis (3) and Ricky Romero (7). Question: Has anyone ever seen Romero and Jaime Garcia in the same room? Romero’s line this year: 7.46 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 54.6% GB, 3.74 xFIP. Garcia: 7.32 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 55.9% GB, 3.75 xFIP. Garcia’s younger; Romero’s facing DHs and the AL East.
• At the team level, what the Blue Jays offer you is power — not just with a capital-P, but with a capital everything else, too. Their park-adjusted HR/FB rate is 12.8% — i.e. two standard deviations above the current mean of 9.4%*. Also, their park has a HR/FB factor of 108. Which, all that together means Home Run City.
• You should take note of Rocco Baldelli, who is (a) likely to be DH-ing for the Rays in this one and (b) the Joe DiMaggio of Rocco Baldellis. (Think about it.)

“It’s one of the nicest homers I’ve ever hit, Marc.”

*This seems lowish as a league-wide figure. But also: I frequently have no idea what I’m doing. So there’s that, too.

Sunday, September 12th
San Francisco (4) at San Diego (10), 4:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Tim Lincecum (9) and Mat Latos (10). OMG. OMG. OMG. OMG. OMG.
• At the team level, these two clubs are like two men jousting, and the winner gets to marry the princess, but the princess only loves one of them, but the king likes the other one better. All of which is to say, the Giants and Padres, as of today, are only a game apart in the standings.
• You should take note of the variety of strikeouts in this game. I’m going with an over/under of, say, 19 total. No jokesies.

It’s a West Coast thing.

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This morning, I looked at the truly unique and historic season that 19-year-old Nick Franklin had in the Midwest League. It’s worth emphasizing again how difficult an environment this is, as prior research I’ve done shows teenagers hit just .260/.330/.381 from 2000-2006. Just as the Major League rookie crop of 2010 was a fantastic one, so too was the group of teenagers this season in the Midwest League. No less than 10 players, besides Franklin, exceeded that .330 OBP / .381 SLG benchmark that past performers have set. Two, in particular, blew the roof off of it.

I have been no secret with my belief that Mike Trout is the best prospect in baseball. This has been a point of contention in my prospect chats with people that have seen him hit *just* .294/.377/.416 in the California League and fail to get excited. Earlier this morning, I posted the best batting lines of a teenager in the last decade. Daric Barton was tops, at .313/.445/.511. Shin-Soo Choo, the only athletic player in the top six, hit .302/.417/.440. What did Mike Trout hit, while at a baseball age a year younger than both of them? .362/.454/.526 in 368 plate appearances with, oh by the way, just 52 strikeouts and 44 steals.

Trout possesses a combination of skills the likes of which this league has never seen. Trout showed a similar walk rate (12.5%) to what Joe Mauer had (12.8%) in the Midwest League, teamed with a really good contact rate that isn’t historic, but it’s certainly really good. Add in the fact that his power is still coming — I’d compare it to what Eric Hosmer did at the level — and that his speed and defense are both plus to plus-plus tools, and you start to get an idea of why I think this kid is such a unique player.

The other freakish stat line of the season belongs to Wil Myers, the Kansas City Royals catching prospect that hit .298/.408/.500 before moving up to High-A, where he hit .346/.453/.512. The three most comparable lines we have to Myers’ Midwest League performance, in the 2000’s, belong to Prince Fielder, Travis Snider and Adrian Gonzalez. You might also toss in Colby Rasmus, who also moved up to High-A and had success there, albeit more muted. Position uncertainty aside, Fielder has shown that you don’t need to play a premium position, nor play defense well at all, to be a five win player.

This morning we talked about how rare Franklin’s season really is when considering the position he played on a day-to-day basis. Joining him in the Midwest League this year were three other teenage shortstops: Hak-Ju Lee (.282/.354/.351), Chris Owings (.298/.323/.447) and Jonathan Galvez (.259/.360/.397). Lee is the best defender of the group, and has drawn the most praise in prospect circles. However, if you went to compare his season to all the teenage seasons in the 2000’s, it’s an uninspiring group, names like Marcus Lemon, Vince Rooi, Alex Romero, Gorkys Hernandez, and generously (and serendipitously), Felix Pie.

Owings had a pretty small sample because of a foot injury, but more than his limited success, it’s that 9-50 walk-to-strikeout ratio that jumps out at me. If we look for people that were under .2 in that ratio: Wily Mo Pena, Jery Gil, Wladimir Balentien, Josh Vitters, Junior Lake, Denny Almonte, Neftali Soto and Engel Beltre. The latter might be the closest comparison, but Owings looks better than Beltre statistically. Finally, we have Galvez, who probably isn’t a shortstop at all after his 43 errors. But if he can work at second base, his touch of power and good patience shine out for me. Everything except contact rate comes off just like Cody Ross, with the low and high end of comparisons coming in at Vince Rooi and Grady Sizemore, respectively. The majority of comparisons come in pretty low, though, with Marcus Lemon and Justin Jackson and Daryl Jones worth mentioning. I still like Galvez, though.

In addition to Owings, Arizona had a pair of third base prospects in the Midwest League this year splitting time at the hot corner. Matt Davidson (.289/.371/.504) had more success than Bobby Borchering (.270/.341/.423), eventually moving onto the California League. Davidson’s season would probably get him into the top 10 of the decade (if not pushed out by Trout and Myers), and it was a similar line to Travis Snider and Carlos Gonzalez. Snider’s season, and general lack of athleticism, actually make for a nice comparison. Borchering has better (though still not good) contact skills and athleticism, but his season was still a disappointment. Chris Lubanski’s line was pretty similar, as was Brandon Wood and Reid Brignac and Wilkin Ramirez.

Let’s move it to bullet points to get near the end here.

Randal Grichuk was drafted ahead of Trout, and had a nice-ish debut before his injury, hitting .292/.327/.530. He had an identical BB/K ratio of Chris Owings at 9-50, so you’re hoping for Josh Vitters, but thinking probably Neftali Soto or Wladimir Balentien’s paths are more likely.

The athletic outfielders Everett Williams (.244/.333/.372) and Rashun Dixon (.275/.371/.383) might just be the best comps for each other, given solid walk rates, bad strikeout rates and all. Dixon just BABIP’d higher. Both seasons were acceptable, if unexciting, beginnings.

Cubs fans are starting to get excited about Jae-Hoon Ha, who had a better season (.317/.334/.468) than Hak-Ju Lee, albeit without a good walk rate. This was better than what Josh Barfield did in the league, but a little worse than Erick Aybar. Twins prospects David Winfree and Wilson Ramos had similar stats, but are much less athletic. This is another place where comparing Engel Beltre might work.

And, in terms of history, I will say this: Max Stassi’s 141 strikeouts (in 465 PA’s) comes in fifth on the counting stat list behind Wily Mo Pena (177 in 565), James Jenkins (151 in 456), Denny Almonte (149 in 408) and Wilkin Ramirez (143 in 541).