This edition of One Night Only continues what yesterday’s started — namely, as an attempt to catalog recently promoted players and inform the reader as to when said players might be seen.

As with yesterday’s installment, none of what follows ought to be regarded as official prospect mavening. Bryan Smith, just yesterday, wrote two pieces about our very newest Major Leaguers. As is typical, Smith’s work offers things like “information” and “analysis” — i.e. a pair of traits far beyond the purview of the present work.

Unlike yesterday’s post, this one previews not only a single night of games, but a long-weekend’s worth. For that reason, the reader will see three times listed after each match-up. These are the games times for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, respectively.

For each series, I’ve included (a) the name, age, and position of each respective call-up, (b) said call-ups’ rankings both on Marc Hulet’s top-10 and Baseball America’s top-30 preseason organizational prospect lists, (c) the players’ lines at their most recent minor league stop, and (d) any notes relevant to better enjoying said players’ promotions.

An American League edition will appear in these pages around the noon hour today.

(wOBA+, or park-adjusted wOBA relative to league average, courtesy of StatCorner.)

New York at Chicago | 2:20pm, 1:05pm, 2:20pm
Mets
Mike Nickeas, 27, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 318 PA, .283/.403/.396 (.323 BABIP), .372 wOBA, 112 wOBA+ (Double-A)
Notes: Nickeas is technically getting called up from Triple-A Buffalo, but only had 26 PAs there. And though I’m sure he’s one of the nicest guys around, he very probably won’t end up on Kris Liakos’ list of the best Greek baseball players.

Notes on Lucas Duda available in yesterday’s edition.

Cubs
None.

Washington at Pittsburgh | 7:05pm, 7:05pm, 1:35pm
Nationals
Daniel Espinosa, 23, SS/2B
Hulet / BA: 4 / 5
Line: 108 PA, .295/.349/.463 (.338 BABIP), .345 wOBA, 104 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Bryan Smith discussed Espinosa in these pages yesterday, suggesting that Espinosa would likely move to second base, with Ian Desmond sticking at short. Hulet’s preseason write-up of him includes the line, “Taking to the wood… has been good for Espinosa.” If you’re a male with an emotional age of 22 or under, that’s probably pretty hilarious.

Pirates
None.

Milwaukee at Philadelphia | 7:05pm, 7:05pm, 1:35pm
Brewers
Jeremy Jeffress, 22, RHP
Hulet / BA: NR / 21
Line: 14.1 IP, 9.42 K/9, 1.26 BB/9, 1.73 FIP (Triple-A)
Notes: As Smith noted yesterday, Jeffress has received two drug-related suspensions. The latter of those, 100 days, lasted till June of this year, which is the reason he’s only thrown 32.1 innings this season. Wisconsiner Jack Moore is excited about Jeffress’s velo, and so can you be.

Phillies
None.

Atlanta at Florida | 7:10pm, 7:10pm, 12:10pm
Braves
Notes on J.C. Boscan and Freddie Freeman available in yesterday’s edition.

Marlins
Chris Hatcher, 25, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 293 PA, .202/.261/.277 (.293 BABIP), .251 wOBA, 81 wOBA+ (Double-A)
Notes: Not entirely sure what his defensive reputation is, but I’m guessing it’s good, as his offensive numbers are pretty mediocre.

Cincinnati at St. Louis | 8:15pm, 4:10pm, 2:15pm
Reds
Yonder Alonso, 23, 1B/LF
Hulet / BA: 1 / 2
Line: 445 PA, .296/.355/.470 (.339 BABIP), .365 wOBA, 108 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has been rated 35th and 45th the last two years, respectively, on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect list. Hulet rated him 47th overall this past March. When asked if he’d still rank Alonso in the same spot, Hulet responded, “Alonso’s value is down but not massively… He’s probably still a top-100 guy.”

Notes on Aroldis Chapman available in every single place on the internet.

Cardinals
None.

Houston at Arizona | 9:40pm, 8:10pm, 4:10pm
Astros
Brian Bogusevic, 26, OF
Hulet / BA: NR / 21
Line: 575 PA, .277/.364/.414 (.329 BABIP), .359 wOBA, 103 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Awesome. Bogusevic was originally drafted as a left-handed pitcher with the 24th-overall pick in the 2005 draft. Unfortunately, he kinda bit. Luckily, he was also a good hitter in college (at Tulane) and so, in July of 2008, moved to the outfield. Survey says he may not be so bad there. His contact rate is slightly up from last season and he’s 23-of-24 on stolen base attempts.

Henry Villar, 23, RHP
Hulet / BA: NR / 27
Line: 102.0 IP, 6.00 K/9, 3.71 BB/9, 4.56 FIP (Double-A)
Notes: Villar has split time between starting and relieving this year. Per StatCorner, he’s had groundball rates in the 47%-50% area. Would have to cut walks to make rotation, likely, as he doesn’t feature swing-and-miss stuff.

Diamondbacks
None. (Although, yesterday, Bryan Smith discussed the recently recalled Brandon Allen a little bit. Allen had 116 PA last year. Additionally, he murdercated a Luke Gregerson offering two nights ago, and made a nice catch, too. Highlights of both available by clicking here.)

Colorado at San Diego | 10:05pm, 4:10pm, 4:05pm
Rockies
Notes on Christopher Nelson available in yesterday’s edition.

Padres
Cory Luebke, 25, LHP
Hulet / BA: 7 / 6
Line: 57.2 IP, 6.87 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, 3.91 FIP (Triple-A)
Notes: Luebke will actually start tonight’s (Friday’s) game. He also pitched 56.1 IP at Double-A San Antonio this year, posting a 2.84 FIP. Is distant relative of Officer Krupke from West Side Story. No joke.

San Francisco at Los Angeles | 10:10pm, 10:10pm, 8:05pm
Giants
Darren Ford, 24, CF
Hulet / BA: NR / 13
Line: 516 PA, .251/.315/.365 (.314 BABIP), .313 wOBA, 97 wOBA+ (Double-A)
Notes: Was 37-of-52 on stolen base opportunities at Richmond (home of the Flying Squirrels). Also, this is interesting, per BA’s Prospect Handbook: apparently, the Giants tried to turn Ford into a switch-hitter, beginning two falls ago. Apparently, they stopped the experiment last summer.

Dodgers
None.

The seventh inning of the Rockies/Phillies affair takes the crown even on a night with a normal schedule.

Joe Beimel opened the inning on the mound facing Placido Polanco with a 7-3 lead in hand. The sequence of events from there until Beimel’s exit included a Polanco double, Chase Utley scoring, and then Ryan Howard hitting a homer. Just like that, the lead was down to one. Jim Tracy turned to the newest toy in his bullpen collection. So entered the flame-slinging Manny Delcarmen just acquired from Boston. Most of Delcarmen’s issues in Boston this season came because of a sharp increase in gopherballs allowed. Given his walk rates, allowing homers is not a smart plan if he wants a lengthy career in the majors.

For his opening act, Delcarmen gave up a homer to Jayson Werth. He was not done, though, as the Phillies then went on a singles parade that saw Shane Victorino, Brian Schneider, and Ben Francisco sending baseballs across the field like beads. By now, Polanco stood in the on-deck circle with Jimmy Rollins due up. Tracy again came out and this time inserted Matt Reynolds.

An appropriate accompanying instrumental to a short ditty about Reynolds’ appearance would be the Jaws theme with slowly ascending volume. Rollins would single off Reynolds, loading the bases for Utley with two outs in a one run game. These are the moments situational lefties who love to flirt with danger love. If Reynolds were one of those who likes to cuddle with a Russian chick named Roulette then what Utley did to the baseball on his 3-1 pitch has probably scared him straight. To Reynolds’ credit, he did retire Howard quickly, keeping the damage at 7-12 and ending the nine run Phillies’ outburst.

Things were just getting started after the stretch ended and the Rockies’ reassumed their position as orchestrators. Seth Smith waved the wand and led things off with a double and scoring on a Jonathan Herrera single. Eric Young Jr. would then double, placing two runners in scoring position with one out. Dexter Fowler’s single plated both and the score would stand at 10-12 through seven.

All told, the seventh inning saw 11 runs score, three homers, 10 balls in play hits, and a swing from the Rockies holding a 89% win expectancy down to 4.7% and back up to 25.1% before dripping back down to 15.4%. The four pitchers who contributed to the inning each held negative Win Probability Added scores. Delcarmen (-.389), Beimel (-.254), and Reynolds (-.237) for Colorado and Philadelphia’s Chad Durbin (-.109). That adds up to -.989, or about an entire win from four of the 14 pitchers used last night.

Don Cooper is one of the game’s best pitching coaches in part because of how quickly he can teach and encourage pitchers to use the cutter. Countless White Sox pitchers have become benefactors of the pitch, including John Danks, who has quickly morphed into one of the finest pitchers in the American League. It should be no surprise that the White Sox’s biggest trade deadline acquisition – Edwin Jackson – is already showing signs of possibly throwing a cutter despite still being fresh-faced to the team.

For those unaware, Jackson has made five starts for the Pale Hose. Racking up over seven innings per start (on average) and posting a 5.63 K/BB ratio. That’s more than double Jackson’s previous career best ratio. Now, it is only 36 innings, and lots can happen in such a small sample size. My statement is not just based on that success, but also the pitch data coming in from Jackson’s brief time in the Southside.

Baseball Info Solutions’ data has Jackson’s fastball moving from 94 MPH to 95.4 MPH, his curve gaining about a mile per hour, and his change doing the same. His slider, though, has not only increased in usage, but also jumped nearly 3 MPH. That didn’t quite feel right, so I went to the pitchfx data to see if there’s been any change in movement on the slider. Here’s what I found:

4/6-8/1: 21.8% usage, 85 MPH, 1.43 vertical movement, 1.24 horizontal moment, 20.8% whiff

8/4-9/1: 27.6% usage, 87.9 MPH, 2.75 vertical movement, 0.16 horizontal movement, 30.6% whiff

That’s not definitive or anything, however everything points to something. Whether it be a new grip or arm slot or just random coincidence, I don’t know for sure. Admittedly some of this an inherent bias thinking that Cooper would quickly latch onto Jackson and morph his arsenal a bit with the addition of a cutter, but the data seems to support that a bit. We’ll see how it works out and whether Jackson will be the newest member of the Don Cooper fan club.

The Braves have already been forced to dip into their starting pitching reserves once this season, thanks to the season ending elbow injury suffered by Kris Medlen. Mike Minor has performed extremely well in his stead, striking out 26 in 23 innings and posting a 3.91 ERA supported by a fantastic 2.45 FIP. The Braves will dip into those reserves again for at least one start this Friday, as Derek Lowe will be shelved with elbow pain. Atlanta will start Kenshin Kawakami in his place, showing off their impressive starting pitching depth.

Kawakami has an 8-21 record with Atlanta, but that belies how well he has really pitched. In nearly 240 innings over the past two seasons, Kawakami has struck out six batters per nine innings while only walking three. Combined with a below average HR/9 rate, that has led to a 4.20 FIP and a 4.17 ERA, both numbers right around the league average. That’s partially due to a low HR/FB rate, but his xFIP of 4.57 still suggests that Kawakami would provide a good deal over a replacement starter were that HR/FB rate to regress. ZiPS projects that said regression will be met by a decline in walk rate, leading to a 4.32 ERA and 4.11 FIP, both numbers which are excellent to receive out of a seventh starter.

The Braves really shouldn’t expect any drop off with Kawakami in the rotation over Lowe. Although Lowe is probably a better true talent pitcher – Lowe has a 3.87 projected FIP – Kawakami’s career and projected numbers are both right in line if not better than Lowe’s 2010 so far. Lowe has from a highly inflated HR/FB rate and has a 4.53 ERA and 4.29 FIP against a 3.94 xFIP.

One could probably make an argument that Kawakami could’ve been in the Braves starting rotation the whole year, but their embarrassment of riches hasn’t made it necessary. To be able to replace Derek Lowe with a league average pitcher can only be described as luxury. The fact that this is possible after already replacing one injured starter with a mid-rotation quality pitcher is a testament to the fantastic job the Braves have done of acquiring pitching talent.

In Nigeria, the country’s massive film industry is sometimes called “Naijawood.” During the past week of baseball, Nyjer Morgan has become a human highlight reel of spectacle himself, running into catchers, pegging a fan, rushing a pitcher, and finding himself at the very bottom of a dogpile. Opinions vary about each of his individual acts, but the overall body of work, culminating in yesterday’s brawl, has brought him near-universal condemnation and an instant “Nyjer Morgan Needs to Go” over at FJB, Nats Triple Play, and Nationals Enquirer. Quite a turnaround for a guy who, one year ago, received a writeup by Dave Cameron proclaiming that “Nyjer Morgan and Adam Dunn are nearly equals in value,” and of whom the Washington Post’s Dan Steinberg wrote, “[Morgan] is preordained to read the words ‘fan favorite’ at every stop in his baseball career.” Morgan’s having a bad year in a lot of ways. But just how bad is he?

On Saturday, August 21, Morgan engaged in an “ongoing dialogue” with a fan in Philadelphia, and then threw a ball into the stands; the ball hit and injured a different fan. (Another fan defended Morgan’s actions.) On August 25, Major League Baseball suspended him for seven games, which he appealed.

On Saturday, August 28, Morgan ran into St. Louis Cardinal catcher Bryan Anderson, who was standing aside from the plate; Morgan didn’t touch home, and was called out when Ivan Rodriguez turned him around and pushed him back towards the plate. He cryptically described his version of events: “I could have took the kid out if I wanted to, but I kind of grazed him. It wasn’t, in my eyes, intentional.” Manager Jim Riggleman condemned his actions and held him out of Sunday’s game. Morgan took exception to Riggleman’s public statement of condemnation, saying, “You don’t blast your player in the papers.”

On Tuesday, August 31, on a play at the plate, Morgan ran over Marlin backup catcher Brett Hayes rather than slide. Morgan was on second with a Alberto Gonzalez at first when Adam Kennedy hit a slow double-play ball to Dan Uggla; Uggla flipped to Hanley Ramirez at second for the first out, but Hanley double-clutched and threw home to get Morgan, who had rounded third and was trying to score. It was a high throw, and Hayes was standing directly on top of the plate, blocking it with his body. Had Morgan slid, he might have scored; but if the throw had been lower, Hayes would have been crouching and he’d have been out with a slide. So Morgan may have calculated that the only way to score the run was to knock the ball out of Hayes’s hand. Hayes held on, recording the out, but sustained a separated shoulder, a season-ending injury. After that play, Morgan reportedly cursed out a Marlin fan.

That all brings us to last night. Because of the Hayes incident the night before, it was perhaps to be expected that the Marlins would plunk Morgan, and Morgan took his first beaning with equanimity as he jogged to first. But when Chris Volstad threw the ball behind him in the 6th (with the Marlins up 15-5), he charged the mound like a man possessed, winding up at the bottom of a pile of Fish as National 3rd base coach Pat Listach started punching Marlins just to even the odds.

This time, Morgan’s manager and teammates were behind him, at least in public. Mark Zuckerman of Nats Insider reports, “The consensus among the Nationals is that Morgan’s only real infraction in the last week was the incident with Anderson.” Based on everything I’ve read, I hesitantly agree. Morgan’s teammates believe that he had no malicious intent in throwing the ball into the stands or in running into Hayes at home, and they didn’t fault him for stealing two bases with his team down by 11 runs in the fourth inning.

As to the fan he hit with the ball, I can’t tell whether he’s to blame without video of the incident, but I believe that if he truly had malicious intent his teammates wouldn’t be sticking up for him at this point. However, I completely agree that he’s blameless for stealing bases after getting plunked. The rule against stealing bases with your team up by a lot or down by a lot, in my view, is one of the most absurd of all of baseball’s “codes,” one whose relevance was entirely dismissed by the steroid era, during which we learned that, quite frankly, no ten-run lead is ever completely safe. Morgan stole a base when the lead was 14-3, but it wound up being 16-10, and in a slugfest like that, anything goes.

While the events of the past 24 hours have heaped condemnation upon Nyjer Morgan, I think the Marlins are being forgiven too easily — which is surprising, considering all of the drama the team has produced this season. Morgan was the Nationals’ leadoff hitter, but Volstad didn’t hit him immediately — he struck him out in the first and gave up a sac fly to him in the second. (In the meantime, Volstad plunked Wil Nieves in the second and Alberto Gonzalez in the third, both presumably unintentionally.) Volstad waited till Morgan’s third plate appearance — when his team was up 14-3 — to go after him, which shows that he put his team’s runs above his team’s honor. But that’s just what Morgan did on the basepaths, stealing a run to get his team’s offense going. So Volstad threw the ball behind him the next time he showed up, and Morgan took the law into his own hands.

I’ve written before that I don’t have much use for baseball’s arcane, archaic notions of honoring your opponent by not running up the score on them. Morgan’s actions had clearly proved over the previous week that he was volatile, and getting in a bench-clearing brawl while appealing a 7-game suspension is not a good way to endear yourself to an arbitrator. But if you ignore his behavior in Philadelphia and St. Louis, I don’t think Morgan did anything wrong in Miami. Sure, he took his life into his own hands — Volstad is 6’8″ and has about 60 pounds on the featherweight Morgan — but while rushing the mound was inadvisable, it wasn’t hard to justify after the other team deliberately threw at him twice.

Morgan’s having a bad year at the plate because his walks are down, his strikeouts are up, and his BABIP is 47 points lower than last year. For the second year in a row, he’s leading the majors in times caught stealing. And the former eccentric fan favorite who once referred to himself as “Tony Plush” has quickly turned toxic in the nation’s capital. He isn’t doing the Nationals much good in the lineup right now, and it wouldn’t hurt their season much if Major League Baseball told him to cool off for a week, as will inevitably happen. But he isn’t the only one to blame for yesterday’s brawl. The headhunting Marlins shouldn’t be let off the hook.

These five players made their Major League debut yesterday. While they didn’t necessarily help their team by WPA standards, like those we profiled this morning did, you can bet all of them will in the future.

Yonder Alonso, 1B/LF, Age 23, Cincinnati Reds.

Debut: -.002 WPA. Checked his swing and accidentally made contact with the ball, grounding out to the pitcher.

2010 Minor League Season: .290/.362/.458 over two levels. Hit .267/.388/.406 (.367 wOBA) in 121 PA at Double-A, and then hit .296/.355/.470 (.365 wOBA) in 445 PA at Triple-A.

Thoughts on Future: Alonso’s future in Cincinnati obviously depends upon his ability to play left field at an acceptable level. If I’m being cynical, I have to say that it strikes me as unlikely that Alonso will be a serious power threat at the big league level. He centers the ball well and makes plenty of hard contact, but his stance/swing don’t seem ideal for home run power. He should be a high doubles hitter, though. It’s also time to start wondering about his future versus left-handed pitchers. He’s hit them at just a .245/.319/.370 clip in his career, and the presence of guys like Jonny Gomes or Chris Heisey make you wonder if staying in Cincy will mean a platoon career. Must stay patient going forward, as Triple-A represented the lowest walk rate of his career.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Age 20, Atlanta Braves.

Debut: -.033 WPA. A nice move by Bobby Cox to start Freeman in his debut over Derrek Lee, who would enter the game in the eighth. Freeman had two plate appearances against Mike Pelfrey, grounding out to shortstop and lining to third base. He struck out against lefty reliever Pedro Feliciano in the sixth.

2010 Minor League Season: .319/.378/.518 (.387 wOBA) in 519 PA at Triple-A.

Thoughts on Future: He’s going to be good. The Braves seem committed to go with Freeman everyday next season, and are going to have quite the pair of sluggers in their lineup for the next five seasons. Freeman might actually have better contact skills than Jason Heyward, though I don’t see his power potential being quite as high. There will be a learning curve against lefties, like we saw in the Feliciano at-bat, but you certainly aren’t going to think about platooning him for awhile. If we want to play the fun arbitrary end point game, in Freeman’s last 73 minor league games, he hit .367/.426/.589, as a 20-year-old, in Triple-A. Sorry fans of the following teams: Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Marlins. It’s all up-hill from here.

Lucas Duda, LF/1B, Age 24, New York Mets.

Debut: -.059 WPA. Drawing Tommy Hanson for your debut is no walk in the park, and it wasn’t for Duda. He flew out to center in 2 plate appearances against Hanson, before striking out against Jonny Venters in his final at-bat. The Braves kept him pretty busy in left field, but nothing happened of note.

2010 Minor League Season: .304/.398/.569 over two levels. Hit .286/.411/.503 (.411 wOBA) in 197 PA at Double-A, hit .314/.389/.610 in 298 PA at Triple-A.

Thoughts on Future: For Duda to be a regular in New York, it means he either supplants Ike Davis at first base (unlikely), or one of Jason Bay or Duda has to play right field. Which is scary in its own right. But if the Mets could make it work, it’s looking more and more like they might have found quite the sleeper in Duda. He never fulfilled his power potential at USC, but is enjoying a breakout season in that regard with 23 home runs to date. Like Alonso, I’m still a bit of a skeptic, both about his ultimate power projection, and his future as a possible platoon player. But he’s patient, and he’s worked hard on making better contact, and all credit is due to the Mets player development (and scouting) staff.

Brian Bogusevic, 1B/LF/CF/RF, Age 26, Houston Astros.

Debut: -.099 WPA. Hit a fielder’s choice groundball to first base in a fifth inning pinch hit appearance. Stole second base off Suppan/Molina, would score tying run on Hunter Pence home run.

2010 Minor League Season: .277/.364/.414 (.359 wOBA) in 575 PA at Triple-A. 23-24 SB/ATT.

Thoughts on Future: It’s too bad the Astros don’t profile to be competitive soon, because Bogusevic would be a perfect bench player on a playoff team. Very good baserunner and solid defender (with a good arm, thanks to his failed career as a pitcher) at four positions. He’s a tweener offensively, without a lot of power, but with too many strikeouts to sustain a high average. I root for the guy and admire his career path, and I would hope a team could see he’s a better option than someone like Scott Podsednik, but that’s about it. Perhaps if he can prove more worth in center field than is currently thought he could be a useful starter, but otherwise, an admirable bench player is where he profiles.

Desmond Jennings, OF, Age 23, Tampa Bay Rays.

Debut: -.138 WPA. The Rays employed what R.J. Anderson termed the “Stallionaire outfield” yesterday, and the Blue Jays were so scared of it, they didn’t hit a ball to the outfield until the sixth inning. At the plate against Shaun Marcum, Jennings struck out once and grounded out twice.

2010 Minor League Season: .278/.362/.393 (.355 wOBA) in 458 PA at Triple-A. 37-41 SB/ATT.

Thoughts on Future: I joked in a recent podcast that Jennings is up this month to job-shadow Carl Crawford, but in a sense it’s true: everyone knows that Crawford won’t be back in Tampa, and that Jennings will be a regular atop the lineup next season. Jennings will be quite good in that role: he’s patient, he’s a great baserunner, he makes contact with the baseball. The hope that he’d develop some more power seems a bit unfounded — I doubt he’ll ever surpass the .170 ISO he had last year in Double-A, but he doesn’t need it to be a better replacement for Crawford than anything they could find on the open market.

How do you make a bad team worse? By moving its best players to other teams. We see this every year at the non-waiver trade deadline. Contenders seek upgrades. Non-contenders seek a return on the veterans who won’t be part of the future. The pairing is almost perfect. Contenders load up for the short-term, while non-contenders build with the next two or three years in mind. Of course, that leaves in question the matter of the current season for the non-contending club.

Realistically it doesn’t matter whether a team wins 65 games or it wins 70 games. Either way it’s a sub-.500 season and it will almost certainly mean a top 15 draft pick the following year. Why, then, do some teams hold onto the veterans whose contracts will expire before they will reach the point of contention? Off the top of my head I can think of a few reasons:

1. They want to keep the player close so they can re-sign him and make him part of the franchise’s long-term outlook.

2. They think they can get a better return on the player at a later date, perhaps in the winter when more teams will vie for his services.

2a. The available trade proposals don’t match the potential of the compensatory draft picks.

3. They’re afraid that trading the player signal surrender and cause fans to stop attending games.

The Nats actually used all three reasons to explain why they didn’t trade Adam Dunn. All year we’ve heard about the team’s desire to sign Dunn long-term, we’ve heard GM Mike Rizzo say that he didn’t receive any acceptable offers, and we know that the team wanted to win as many games as possible even though the playoffs have been an impossibility since sometime in May. If Dunn signs elsewhere this off-season the Nats can fall back only on No. 3, and considering their spot in last place that’s a tiny consolation.

The Astros took an opposite approach this July. They entered the month 31-48 and had no hope of a come back. Sure, they made runs after being 35-41 on July 1, 2005 and 40-43 on July 1, 2008, but this was a considerably deeper hole. At least in those years they were within 7.5 games of the Wild Card. This year they were 13.5 back, and considering the roster composition there was simply no chance for a comeback. This led the team to make available its highest profile players, Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman. Before the month was over the Astros would deal both.

Trading Oswalt acted as the precursor for trading Berkman. The Astros received J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar in exchange for Oswalt, and then flipped Gose to the Blue Jays for 1B Brett Wallace. With an MLB-ready first baseman on hand, the Astros could then flip Berkman and get out from under some of his remaining salary. They didn’t receive much from the Yankees, though Mark Melancon was a once-heralded reliever who might find success in his new environment. The trades helped the Astros in the short-term, in that it saved them some money, and in the long-term, since they have young, cost-controlled players in place of older, more expensive ones. But there is that pesky thing called winning, and the trades looked to hurt the Astros in that department.

Berkman played his last game for the Astros on July 29. That means from July 29 through now they have played without their two franchise-defining players. At that point the team was 42-59, 3.5 games behind fourth-place Chicago, 14 games behind the Reds and Cardinals, and 15.5 games back in the Wild Card. Not that any of that mattered. The Astros were just playing out the season and hoping they might learn something that they can use in assembling next year’s club. But instead of flipping on cruise control, the Astros went on a tear.

Since Berkman’s final game the Astros have gone 20-12, playing spoiler to many NL contenders, including their division rivals the Cardinals. They leapfrogged Chicago a while back and now sit 5.5 games ahead of them. They’ve even caught Milwaukee and are currently tied with them for third in the Central. How does that happen? How does a team lose two of its best players and play better than they did with them on board? The answer, at least in this case, is that the Astros’ improvement started while Oswalt and Berkman were still on the roster.

The Astros’ season couldn’t have started any worse. They went 8-14 in April and then fell even further, going 9-20 in May. That left them with the worst record in the NL by 2.5 games. They had scored 13 fewer runs than the next closest NL team, and were 75 behind the next closest after that. June didn’t appear to be much friendlier, as their interleague schedule included two series against Texas and one against the Yankees. But the Astros made it through at a .500 pace even though they had a -22 run differential. That appeared to be just the start. In July the Astros went 13-11 with a +3 run differential. Then, sans their stars, they went 17-12 in August with a +17 differential. They’re currently 1-0 in September.

They have accomplished this by improving on both sides of the ball. In the rotation Wandy Rodriguez has come on strong after a rough start. Through his first 14 starts he had a 6.09 ERA, though his 4.29 FIP suggested it wasn’t solely bad pitching at fault. In his latest 13 starts he has a 1.65 ERA and 2.50 FIP, lasting at least six innings each time. He has allowed more than one earned run just three times in those 13 starts. Oswalt was the team’s best pitcher at his time of departure, a 3.42 ERA and 3.39 FIP, which amounted to 2.7 WAR. Happ took his place and while his FIP is a bit higher, 3.65, his ERA is a bit lower, 3.32. He has so far produced 0.7 WAR in his seven starts.

On offense the Astros did more than replace Berkman with Wallace. In fact, that was a considerable downgrade. Berkman wasn’t having the greatest year, but he did appear to be recovering from knee surgery. His wOBA rose in each month this season, peaking at .392 in July. That amounted to 2.0 WAR. Wallace has been worth -0.3 WAR since his arrival. The difference has been made in a number of places, most noticeably with Jeff Keppinger, whom R.J. wrote about this week, and Chris Johnson, who has been on a BABIP-fueled tear since taking over at third base for the uninspiring Pedro Feliz. Hunter Pence has also recovered after a slow start. He produced a .372 wOBA in July and .376 in August, helping power a once punchless Astros offense.

By most indications, the Astros are playing above their heads. Based on simple run differential they’re behind both Milwaukee and Chicago. Baseball Prospectus’s third-order wins have them in that position as well. There is no doubt that some of their players, Johnson most notably, are hitting at unsustainable rates. It doesn’t mean much for next year. The Astros are still a few years and a number of lucky breaks away from pulling back into contention. But they’ve managed to make something out of what was a season lost from the very beginning.

Over the last few days we’ve taken a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers from 2009 to this season in terms of WAR. Today we’ll check out four players who could have made one of the respective lists but weren’t included.

OF Andres Torres
2009 WAR: 2.0
2010 WAR: 5.7

I was initially reluctant to include Torres because his wOBA has actually dropped from last season and he was on pace for 4 WAR over 150 games in ’09. However, the small sample size last year gave light to critics doubting if the former Puerto Rican track star could ever truly break out over a full season at age thirty-two and with literally no major league success before 2009. Well, Torres has certainly proven the doubters wrong with a fantastic 2010 in which he’s produced 5.7 WAR for the Giants, thanks to a .377 wOBA and an extraordinary defensive effort; UZR says he’s saved 18.1 runs this year while DRS has him at 12. Torres never really knew how to hit upon being drafted in the fourth round out of community college in 1998, but once he tuned his mechanics he was able to utilize his bat speed and began to smack line drives.

1B Daric Barton
2009 WAR: 0.8
2010 WAR: 3.9

Daric Barton was young coming into the 2010 season at just twenty-four, but there were still many who were doubting if he’d ever put it all together. After the former top prospect burst onto the scene in 2007 with the A’s at twenty-one and put up a .452 wOBA in eighty-four plate appearances, people were ready for more. However, the big lefty couldn’t produce similarly the next few years, putting up a .302 wOBA in 140 games in 2008 and a more respectable .343 last year in fifty-four games. Thankfully for A’s fans, Barton’s increased patience has made up for his relative lack of power this year; he’s hitting .284/.401/.419 thanks to a 15.8 BB% despite a rather poor .135 ISO. Still, his defense at first base has been solid (UZR says 6.1 runs saved) and his eye at the dish is outstanding. With his peak years ahead, Barton’s power may develop more and he could become Jason Giambi Lite. Now if he’d only stop bunting…

OF Franklin Gutierrez
2009 WAR: 6.1
2010 WAR: 2.2

After Franklin Gutierrez’s remarkable 2009, fans were excited to see what the former throw-in from a three-way trade would do this season. Last year, Guti was solid at the bat and outstanding in the field. His .337 wOBA (108 wRC+) was driven by a .425 SLG (not too bad for a center fielder) and a .333 BABIP. He was also insanely clutch last year and had a 3.72 WPA. However, it was his defense that gave him the big value. UZR liked him for 31 runs above replacement. Yup, make him a league-average fielder and his value drops over 50% to just 3 WAR. Still, UZR wasn’t alone; DRS said he was even better, at 32 runs saved, and Total Zone liked him for 27 runs. It was truly an incredible year for Guti.

Sadly, the tide has turned in 2010. At twenty-seven, Gutierrez should be approaching his peak offensively, but his wOBA has dropped to a measly .304 this year as he’s caught whatever offensive-thwarting bug has gone around the Seattle clubhouse. Despite increasing his walk rate a percentage point (7.3% to 8.3%), his .304 BABIP has produced a .251/.311/.367 slash line, nothing to write home about. Finally, the glove hasn’t played like it did last year. UZR still thinks he’s been good for 7.5 runs, while DRS is even more bullish with 16 runs, but it hasn’t been enough to replicate, or even approach, his 2009 WAR.

OF Nyjer Morgan
2009 WAR: 4.9
2010 WAR: 0.3

I think we’ve heard this story before. Center fielder has a career offensive and defensive season which drives his value up crazy, but then regresses significantly the following year because of a much lower BABIP and worse defense. Nyjer Morgan (aka DJ Nij-Nnn-Nnn-Nnn-Nice) had a fantastic 2009 both at the plate and in the field. Morgan, who split time between Pittsburgh and Washington, hit .307/.369/.388, good for a .340 wOBA (108 wRC+). However, it wasn’t entirely unexpected. Morgan had put up a .340 wOBA in 2007 and a .320 wOBA in 2008. Still, the consistent offense over a full season was surprising. What was more surprising was his defense, as Morgan saved 27.6 runs according to UZR (DRS said 15 while Total Zone said just 9).

In 2010, everything has fallen apart for Morgan. He has a .288 wOBA thanks to a .257/.317/.318 line, has a negative UZR, and is getting clotheslined by big first basemen. ZiPS still likes him for a .305 wOBA the rest of the way, but Morgan is not the solid everyday center fielder many thought he could turn out to be.

Nine players made their 2010 debut yesterday — seven appearing in the big leagues for the first time — on the first day of roster expansion. By WPA standards, four positively contributed to their team, and five negatively contributed in their debuts. Here is my take on the positive contributors; I will write up the negative contributors in the afternoon today.

Brandon Allen, 1B/LF, Age 24, Arizona Diamondbacks.

Debut: +.229 WPA. The only of today’s eight players to have a previous big league career, Allen made his 2010 debut in left field. He had a bloop single to left in the third, and then a bloop fly-out to left in the fifth. In the seventh inning, Allen pulled a hanging slider to right field 419 feet for a grand slam. In the field, Allen made a nice catch against the fence in the fourth, one of four put-outs on the day.

2010 Minor League Season: .261/.405/.528 (.407 wOBA) in 469 PA at Triple-A.

Thoughts on Future: I have to say, more impressive than the grand slam yesterday was Allen’s catch of a slicing Chase Headley fly ball. This makes it all the more likely his 2011 season will be in the Major Leagues, as he’s going to offer the Diamondbacks solid enough play at first base or in left field. At the plate, he’s more than ready. Allen posted a 17.7 BB% this year, which more than makes up for his problems with contact. You can expect both his ISO and BB% to come down next year, but both should still be above league average. Allen is going to have a nice, long big league career; the White Sox must be kicking themselves for trading away Paul Konerko’s successor at first base.

Darren Ford, CF, Age 24, San Francisco Giants.

Debut: +.214 WPA. Pinch ran for Mike Fontenot at first base in the 8th. Reached second on Tim Lincecum sacrifice. Bolted for third base when an Ubaldo Jimenez pitch hit the dirt, drawing a late throw from Miguel Olivo that went to left field. Ford scored the winning run on the play.

2010 Minor League Season: .251/.315/.365 (.313 wOBA) in 516 PA at Double-A. 37-52 SB/ATT.

Thoughts on Future: With a fairly hot Rockies team three games back, and a great pitcher’s duel brewing between Jimenez and Lincecum, Ford played the role of Dave Roberts in a huge moment. Despite the dissimilarities in their games, Roberts’s late-starting big league career, including 5 seasons with more than 400 plate appearances, would be a decent-enough outcome for Ford. Ford is already an all-world defender in center field, certainly a good baserunner, but his offense lags behind. Ford cut his strikeout rate to a career low this year, but it was met with a career-low walk rate, which had previously been his lone strength as a hitter. Most likely, he’s a fifth outfielder, but given his defensive abilities, his offense doesn’t need to be quite as good as most prospects.

Danny Espinosa, SS/2B, Age 23, Washington Nationals.

Debut: +.004 WPA. Espinosa was credited for a double in his first big league plate appearance, but it was mostly because the hometown official scorer didn’t want to give Donnie Murphy an error. To his credit, Espinosa turned a one-base error into a two-base error with good speed. Espinosa grounded out to second in the 8th, and didn’t record a play in the field.

2010 Minor League Season: .268/.337/.464 over two levels. Hit .259/.332/.461 (.356 wOBA) in 434 PA at Double-A, hit .295/.349/.463 (.345 wOBA) in 108 PA at Triple-A. 25-36 SB/ATT.

Thoughts on Future: I really like Danny Espinosa, because he’s the rare prospect that could stick at shortstop and post good patience and power numbers. But then again, it sure seems like the Nationals are going to stick him at second base, and his patience wasn’t good (7.5 BB%) this season. Both of these alter his prospect rating, and definitely knock him down a notch. Espinosa is also a player that’s going to have to win over an old-school manager, as it’s hard to forecast him ever hitting above .275 with strikeout rates in the mid-twenties.

Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Age 22, Milwaukee Brewers.

Debut: +.001 WPA. One inning, three batters faced, 11 pitches thrown, 7 for strikes. Was 95-98 mph with 7 fastballs, and threw 4 curveballs at 78-79 mph. Allowed groundball single to Miguel Cairo, induced double play grounder from Paul Janish, and groundball out from Ryan Hanigan.

2010 Minor League Season: 2.23 ERA in 24 appearances spread between the Midwest (5 G), Florida State (8 G) and Southern (11 G) Leagues. Ratios between three levels: 5.0 H/9, 0.00 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 12.0 K/9.

Thoughts on Future: We know that his next suspension will be the end of his professional baseball career, so that is noteworthy. With that said, Jeffress was by all accounts a good citizen during his 2010 season, and he made real strides on the diamond. Once a pure arm strength guy, Jeffress flashed a really good curveball yesterday that drew hilariously weak contact from Janish and Hanigan. With that pitch reaching true plus status, and his over-the-top arm angle still producing big velocity, Jeffress profiles as a Major League closer. His blend of strikeouts and groundballs should lead to some real success in that role.

This afternoon: Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda, Brian Bogusevic, Desmond Jennings, Freddie Freeman.

Jeff Suppan started his ninth game of the season for the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday. The 35-year-old starter, acquired after the Brewers released him and his albatross contract, pitched five innings against the Astros, allowing four earned runs on four walks, three hits, and one home run while striking out only one batter. With this start in the books, Suppan has now struck out 19 batters, walked 19 batters, and allowed eight home runs in his 46.1 innings pitched for St. Louis. Prior to tonight’s start, Suppan had a 5.53 FIP and a 5.14 xFIP as a Cardinal, both numbers which will only climb after yesterday’s poor start.

And yet, despite how utterly horribly Suppan has pitched, he comes out of that start against Houston with merely a 4.47 ERA. Suppan has stranded a ridiculous 82.8% of baserunners allowed, and for that reason he has managed to get away relatively unscathed despite no other mark suggesting anything even resembling major league talent. It’s not even as if Suppan has been good at preventing hits, either- he has allowed 57 hits in 47.1 innings now and a BABIP of .323. Either it’s a fantastically wily veteran wherewithal on the mound or Suppan has been incredibly lucky with runners on base, and it shouldn’t be hard to guess which side of the issue on which I fall.

And yet, despite the fact that Suppan has allowed only slightly more runs than the average, Suppan has a 1-5 record as a Cardinal and the club is 3-6 in games started by him, with one win ranking as the Cardinals most fantastic comeback win of the season. The universe has corrected itself through the paltry run support the Cardinals have given Suppan. In his nine starts, the Cardinals have given him 3, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 3, and 2 runs in support, respectively, and Suppan simply isn’t good enough or lucky enough to win with so little offense behind him.

Somehow, Suppan has managed to avoid giving up loads of runs, but the Cardinals haven’t managed to take advantage of it and win. The fact that Jeff Suppan has already received nine starts is a big reason why the Cardinals are now eight games back. If he’s not the worst starting pitcher in the National League, he’s close, and it’s simply poetic justice that his teammates aren’t putting up runs behind his lucky performances to date. The Cardinals shouldn’t expect an ERA below 5.00 as Suppan racks up the innings, and they certainly shouldn’t expect to win with him on the mound down the stretch either.