As smarter fans everywhere will already know, yesterday marked the beginning of the season of Roster Expansion on the MLB calendar.

With that in mind, this edition of One Night Only seeks to prepare the reader for which recently promoted players (with little or no MLB service time) he (or she) might see in tonight’s respective games.

Note, please, that none of what follows ought to be regarded as official prospect mavening. Undoubtedly, at some point, either Marc Hulet or Bryan Smith will address the relative worth of one or more of the players treated here. Rather, allow this to serve merely as a brief catalog of players you might see in action this evening.

For each game, I’ve included (a) the name, age, and position of the recent call-up, (b) said call-up’s ranking both on Marc Hulet’s top-10 and Baseball America’s top-30 preseason organizational prospect lists, (c) the player’s line at his most recent minor league stop, and (d) any notes relevant to better enjoying said player’s promotion.

(wOBA+, or park-adjusted wOBA relative to league average, courtesy of StatCorner.)

New York Nationals at Atlanta | 7:10pm ET
Mets
Lucas Duda, 24, LF/1B
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 290 PA, .314/.389/.610 (.346 BABIP), .424 wOBA, 124 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has the best league- and park-adjusted numbers on this list. Distinguishes himself, as well, by specifically not being Jeff Francoeur.

Braves
J.C. Boscan, 30, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 248 PA, .250/.324/.368 (.305 BABIP), .314 wOBA, 94 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has been in the minors for longer than Jackie Moore’s been alive.

Freddie Freeman, 20, 1B
Hulet / BA: 2 / 2
Line: 519 PA, .319/.378/.518 (.351 BABIP), .387 wOBA, 117 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Most highly rated player on this list. With that name he’s got, could definitely start a smooth jazz band if baseball doesn’t work out.

Philadelphia at Colorado | 7:10pm ET
Phillies
None.

Rockies
Christopher Nelson, 24, SS/2B
Hulet / BA: NR / 29
Line: 356 PA, .317/.379/.498 (.348 BABIP), .384 wOBA, 107 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Actually had like 6 PAs back in mid-June. Total Zone doesn’t appear to like his defense. Turns out, was not lead singer of hair band Nelson.

Oakland at New York Americans | 1:05pm ET
Athletics
Justin James, 28, RHP
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 19.2 IP, 12.81 K/9, 4.12 BB/9, 1.88 FIP (Triple-A)
Notes: He appears to induce ground balls at a fairly steady pace, too. Could be interesting to watch.

Yankees
Greg Golson, 24, CF/RF
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 455 PA, .265/.316/.417 (.324 BABIP), .328 wOBA, 97 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Golson actually has 12 career major league PAs. Is 17-for-21 stealng this year.

Boston at Baltimore | 7:05pm ET
Red Sox
None.

Orioles
Brandon Snyder, 23, 1B
Hulet / BA: 6 / 6
Line: 376 PA, .257/.324/.407 (.338 BABIP), .326 wOBA, 103 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Was originally a catcher. Hit .343/.421/.597 (.396 BABIP) with a 128 wOBA+ last year at Double-A.

Detroit at Minnesota | 8:10pm ET
Tigers
Max St. Pierre, 30, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 147 PA, .300/.356/.469 (.318 BABIP), .356 wOBA, 108 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has a shockingly similar profile to Boscan (above). Is from Quebec.

Twins
None.

Cleveland at Seattle | 10:10pm ET
Indians
None.

Mariners
None.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

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Jason Kendall is out for the next eight-to-ten months as he’ll require shoulder surgery. Not just a snarky Royals fan’s latest joke, but a reality.

Playing Kendall virtually every day likely did not help his body. Catchers do not age well, and asking a 36-year-old to catch nearly 90% of the innings played is a bit much. But you know what? Kendall caught 91% two seasons ago, and was over 80% last season too. The high percentage of games caught by Kendall is not a defense of using him that much, not at all. My issue is the original contract itself calling for two years. I won’t rehash that argument either.

Instead, I’d like to pay tribute to Kendall’s career if this winds up being the last time we see him in the majors. For a string of years Kendall was one of the best hitting catchers around. Here are his run values (park-adjusted too) from 1997 through 2000:

17.3
33.5
22.8
27.4

From there, things go downhill a bit, although he managed a string of decent seasons with the Pirates and Athletics that lasted until the mid-2000s and included two near-five win seasons. Between that 97-00 period, Kendall was amongst baseball’s more underrated players, such is the price one has to pay when playing for a perennial cellar dweller.

Only recently (well, 2007) did Kendall become a bit of a laughing stock offensively. He has posted four of his five worst offensive seasons the last four years, which is not a sweet or charming end to a career, and neither is the injury route. It’s a shame that his career might end like this, but he’s had a long and ultimately fan-fulfilling career.

Yesterday I wrote about how Yovani Gallardo’s season had slipped through the cracks. Tonight is Brian McCann’s time for shine; apologies in advance to Braves’ fans if Brian McCann decides to pitch tonight and gives up eight runs.

McCann has the unfortunate coincidence of playing (and catching) during the same period as Joe Mauer. Nevertheless, McCann is a single home run shy of his third consecutive 20-plus home run season. His consistency goes beyond that streak, though, as his home run totals since becoming a permanent fixture in the starting lineup are as follows: 24, 18, 23, 21, and of course 19. Even better, McCann’s walk rates have been mostly static over that period: 8.3%, 6.3%, 9.9%, 8.9%, and now 13.4%.His ISO is consistent, too: .240, .183, .222, .205, and .203.

I do not know the standard deviation for the average player on a year-to-year basis in those statistics, but my perception is that McCann is probably more consistent than a decent number of individuals. My perception of how impressive this would be is enhanced by him catching, where nicks and bruises are a byproduct of such a tedious lifestyle choice.

Whether McCann really is in the top 10% (or whatever percentage one desires to place him within) for “consistency” or not is irrelevant. He just doesn’t have a huge blow-up season like Mauer, and I wonder if that hurts him when it comes to being recognized as the second best catcher in baseball. It’s the Albert Pujols’ syndrome. He’s so good annually that sometimes we take the performances for granted.

McCann’s season is a perfect example. He has 4.9 WAR right now, last season he had 4.2, and his previous career high is 5.7. He will not reach six wins, but he is almost certain to top five for the third time in his career. He somehow has a higher wOBA than players like Evan Longoria, David Ortiz, Ryan Braun, Jason Heyward, and so on … and he’s a catcher. That fact really cannot be ignored. Yet we’ve only had three posts on him since January and none talked up his performance. And, really, if he hasn’t been covered by this staff, then he’s definitely flying under some radars.

Everybody knows that Jose Bautista has put up ridiculous power numbers this year. Bautista’s 43 home runs are eight more than second place Albert Pujols and his .355 ISO is 53 points above Miguel Cabrera‘s and only trails Josh Hamilton’s batting average by six points. Those are impressive numbers and a large reason why Jose Bautista has a .426 wOBA this season.

It’s important to realize, however, that Bautista has not been a one-dimensional hitter this year. The power has been the driving force behind his line, but Bautista also has a .385 OBP this season. That ability to reach base is largely based on a fantastic 14.9% walk rate, the best of his career and second in the league among qualified pitchers behind Daric Barton.

Although he’s never seen this many free passes, the ability to walk is not something new for Bautista. Since 2006, Bautista has had an above average walk rate every season and has eclipsed 11% three times including 2010. Bautista’s walk rates since 2006 have been 116%, 131%, 108%, 156%, and 175% of the league average, and that’s why Bautista was basically a league average hitter over his time in Pittsburgh.

The discussion with Bautista always seems to turn to his performance next year, and for good reason. For as impressive as Bautista’s power is, we simply don’t learn much about a player’s true power talent from only 500 or 600 plate appearances. That’s why ZiPS projects a drop in ISO from .355 to .230.

Despite this projected drop in power to human levels, Bautista is still seen as a well above average hitter by ZiPS and that’s because Bautista has had and continues to have above average plate discipline. ZiPS projects a 13.7% walk rate, and given Bautista’s track record, it’s hard to imagine much of a deviation from that number.

The question of Bautista’s performance next year is a worthwhile one, and for a variety of reasons it’s no sure thing that his power remains at such a high level. However, even with a decline, Bautista should be able to remain an above average hitter, and that’s due to his fantastic patience at the plate and ability to reach base via the walk. That should continue to make him a viable hitter, and any extra power only serves to increase his offensive value.

The results of our second contract crowdsourcing are in, and while those who commented on the original post seemed willing to pony up for Dunn, they were a vocal minority. If Dunn is expecting a big paycheck this winter, the crowd think he’s in for a disappointment.

Average years: 3.18 years
Average salary: $12.40 million

Median years: 3 years
Median salary: $12 million

Standard deviation, years: 0.81 years
Standard deviation, salary: $2.73 million

As you can see, there was less agreement with Dunn than with Crawford, as people clearly have very different perceptions of his value. The standard deviation in salary is almost as high as it was with Crawford even though the average salary is 25 percent lower. Almost as many people voted that he’d have to settle for $7 million per season as the ones who thought he’d hit the jackpot and get $20 million per year. A whopping 52 people gave him an annual average salary of $20-plus million. Seriously.

I think those folks, and perhaps Dunn and his agent, are in for another rude awakening this winter. I had him at 3/33 before the community voted, putting him very close to that mark. While he’s a productive player, he faces some challenges, as follows.

1. His refusal to DH will scare off most AL clubs, limiting the number of teams that will seriously pursue him.
2. There are a glut of free agent 1B/DH types on the market this winter.
3. He’s going to be a Type A free agent, and the Nationals are almost certainly going to offer arbitration.

Given those three factors, you’re looking at just a few clubs that will be in the bidding. Rebuilders will not want to lose a good draft pick in a loaded class. Most contenders already have a good first baseman, or may be looking to leverage all the available options against each other to come up with a cheaper option. It’s just going to be very difficult for Dunn to find multiple teams that want to pay him a lot of money, and one heavily interested team won’t be enough, as he learned two years ago.

I’ll stick with my original thought of 3 years and $33 million, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if his eventual deal was less than that, or even if he ended up accepting the Nationals arbitration offer.

If FanGraphs has a football-oriented kindred spirit around this great and wild series of tubes called the internet, it’s almost definitely Brian Burke’s Advanced NFL Stats. Just as we strive to do here, Burke makes it his bidness to ask the smartest questions he can think of and (generally) uses quantitative analysis to answer them. Also, as we do here, Burke carries a number of stats that you’re not gonna find elsewhere.

Finally, as with FanGraphs, green is integral to his site’s color palette. So, yeah.

So it was that, when FanGraphs’ own Zach Sanders assembled a cast of sabermetric types via a simple Twitter message (pictured below) I wrote to Mr. Burke and asked what might be a way to construct a league so’s to remove — as much as is possible — the effects of team context and randomness (i.e. practices common in the quantitative analysis of baseball).

Because he’s a kind person and sympathetic those less fortunate than him, Burke responded quickly. You can read the entirety of his reply (and more!) over at his site, but if you’re the sort to look for the bottom line, here’s a fair summary: turnovers, special teams, and touchdowns are the most random things in the NFL; stick with yardage as much as possible.

In any case, I assume at least some of our readers participate in fantasy football, and that some of those people have as yet to participate in the last of their NFL fantasy drafts.

That being the case, I’ve reproduced below the scoring system we’ll be using in what Sanders has subbed the This Ain’t Baseball League. Essentially, it’s a hybrid of the more traditional fantasy scoring with which you’re already likely familiar and then the yard-heavy approach endorsed by Burke.

The positions we’re using are as follows: QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, W/R/T, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN.

The draft was last Thursday, and I believe you’ll be able to view the results of said draft — plus other league information — by clicking here. [Update: Nevermind. Apparently, that doesn’t work. Yeesh.]

Now, for the scoring (including the Yahoo default settings for the sake of comparison):

Those are the offensive ones. Here are the defensive:

As the “real” trade deadline approached last night, the New York Mets finally got rid of their 2010 team mascot, Jeff Francoeur, trading him to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Joaquin Arias. Dan Szymborski has already issued a brilliant analysis of the trade, but I want to focus on what Francoeur might bring to the Rangers over the last month of the season.

It depends on his role. Obviously, Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz are far superior to Francoeur, but as Rob Neyer notes, they’ve each struggled with injury issues this season, so Francoeur provides a bit of depth in case those come into play again. Still, Francoeur has been close to worthless for two seasons, so it’s not clear why the Rangers would need to trade for a replacement-level bench player at this point, especially one who can’t play center field (assuming the Rangers don’t want to play Julio Borbon and don’t want Hamilton in center). In any case, the Rangers already have David Murphy, who does play center occasionally, although he isn’t very good there.

Assuming Murphy and Francoeur are roughly equivalent in the field (and some quick number crunching has them in the same general area), the main skill Francoeur supposedly brings to the Rangers is as a platoon partner for Murphy. When Francoeur’s abilities have been (rightly) criticized this season, his alleged usefulness as a right-handed platoon bat is usually brought up as a way he might be made useful. Francoeur does have a fairly big observed split: .302 wOBA versus RHP and a .344 versus lefties. However, as most readers of FanGraphs know by now, there’s a difference between observed performance and true talent. We have to properly regress Francoeur’s split against league average to get an idea of what his real platoon skill, i.e., what it will likely be going forward.

As is covered in the linked post, there is less variance among right-handed hitters with regard to platoon skill, so while Francoeur’s observed split is bigger than average, his 961 career PA versus LHP is regressed against 2200 of league average RHH versus LHP. In other words, his estimated hitter platoon skill is still far closer to league average than to his past observed performance. ZiPS overall rest-of-season projection for Francoeur is a .311 wOBA, which is pretty useless for a corner outfielder who isn’t exceptional defensively. Applying the split estimate to that figure gives us an projected wOBA of .304 versus RHP, and .330 versus LHP — terrible versus RHP and a bit above average versus LHP. Murphy’s ZiPS RoS wOBA is .344, and his estimated splits are .319 wOBA vs. LHP, .353 vs. RHP. *

* I realize that the ZiPS RoS projections currently assume Francoeur playing in the Mets’ pitcher-friendly park and Murphy playing in the Rangers’ hitters’ paradise. There isn’t a simple way of working around that, so I’ll simply note a) the park differences aren’t as big as one might think, especially over the few games left in the season (in terms of run values), and b) they are somewhat offset by the AL’s superior pitching.

Over a full season of 700 PAs, the difference between Francoeur’s .330 vs. LHP and Murphy’s .319 is about six runs. Of course, there isn’t a full season left, but about a fifth of a season — so it’s one or two runs over 140-150 PA. But even that is too much, since Francoeur would be the lesser part of a platoon. Assuming one third of the PAs go to the right-handed batter, the expected offensive difference between Murphy alone and a Francoeur/Murphy platoon would be less than a run over the remainder of the season. Yes, they’ll have Francoeur in the playoffs, but that’s (at most) 19 games. The expected difference is miniscule.

From the standpoint of creating a productive platoon, Francoeur’s expected platoon skill isn’t enough to overcome his overall lousiness at the plate, and can’t reasonably be expected to make much of a difference over the remainder of the season over just playing Murphy. If an injury does occur to one of the starters, forcing a backup into a full-time role, then Francoeur will have to face right-handed pitching. In that case the Rangers would be better off playing Julio Borbon (superior defense) and keeping the recently-designated Brandon Boggs around as depth.

It might not be a total wash. Francoeur might get a big hit in the playoffs and that, combined with his apparent ability to charm the press corps, will lead to some indignant newpaper columns when he gets non-tendered in the off-season. Fun for everyone!

This year was never going to be the Orioles’ year. They were short on sure things, and they were still guided by manager Dave Trembley, who was essentially the longest tenured interim manager in baseball at the time. But unlike Orioles teams of years past, the 2010 team had promise. They had a young center fielder on the brink of stardom. Their catcher had his own mythology. Their young pitchers tantalized the imagination. With some progress from those franchise players the Orioles could have taken a step towards contention in 2010. Instead they fought and clawed to keep themselves out of the cellar.

Brian Matusz represented one of the bigger disappointments. The Orioles’ No. 1 prospect before the season, he received rave reviews from prospect rating outlets. Baseball America not only praised his stuff and command, but also his mind for the game. Marc Hulet also ranked him No. 1 and made similar observations. Matusz might not have been quite ready to head a rotation in his second full pro season, but he seemed poised to take a few steps forward.

Like the Orioles’ season on the whole, Matusz’s 2010 did not go according to plan. He started off at a decent pace, a 4.18 ERA and 3.16 FIP through eight starts. In his ninth start he gave up seven runs in 2.1 innings to the Rangers. In his tenth he surrendered six in five innings to Oakland. After a few good starts he tumbled again, and by July’s end he had a 5.46 ERA and 4.36 FIP. That’s not a poor fielding-independent stat for a second-year pro, but with that ERA combined with the expectations placed on Matusz, it looked particularly poor.

On August 2 the Orioles brought in their new manager, Buck Showalter, and it had an immediate and positive impact on the organization. The Orioles not only played well in August, going 17-11, but they outplayed all of their foes in the AL East. The hitters started to hit better. The pitchers started to experience better results. It’s almost like they started playing to the level that we expected earlier in the year. Brian Matusz was a big part of that turnaround.

Last night he held down the Red Sox for just two runs through six innings, striking out six to just one walk. It capped off an August that has helped change the perception of Matusz’s season. Before he was a young, high-ceiling pitcher who was having trouble navigating the league. Now, after a month in which he had a 2.43 ERA and 3.34 FIP, he’s again a young ace-in-training on the right track. That’s something the Orioles need after their disappointing season.

Matusz’s hot August becomes more impressive when we see the quality of his opponents. He had one bad start in which he allowed five runs in four innings against the Rays, the league’s third-best offense. But he also allowed one run in six innings and one run in seven innings against the No. 6 White Sox; no runs in eight innings against No. 4 Texas; and two runs in six innings against No. 2 Boston. His only easy game came against No. 9 Anaheim, and he made the most of it with a six-inning, one-run performance.

Even with a hot September Matusz’s season-long numbers won’t look that pretty. But that’s not the important part right now. The Orioles were non-contenders from Day One. What mattered in their 2010 season was the development of key young players. The plan didn’t go so well at first, but since Showalter took over they’ve been back on track. The Baltimore franchise might not have taken a big step forward in 2010, but they’re still poised for a run in a few years. Whenever it happens, Matusz figures to play a big part.

Nobody could watch Aroldis Chapman’s debut without coming away impressed. There is, however, the question of Chapman’s value, as the Reds paid 30 million dollars for the rights to Chapman’s services, and that’s no small investment for a MLB franchise. Not only that, but it’s $30 million on top of whatever arbitration rewards he reaps. From Cot’s Contracts:

-If Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2012, $5M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible
-If Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2013, $3M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible

As Chapman’s contract calls for $5 million after 2012 and $3 million after 2013, assuming he reaches arbitration after the 2013, the contract will actually pay out $25.25M plus three arbitration awards, with his 2015 arbitration reward replacing the $5 million player option in his contract for that season.

Essentially, Chapman looks to make $30.25 million over six years as a minimum and could see, based on Jonathan Papelbon’s arbitration progression as an elite reliever, something like $58 million in that time as a reliever. Taking the absolute best-case scenario – the Tim Lincecum track – that salary could go up as high as $70 or $80 million.

Of course, if Chapman becomes Tim Lincecum, that would be a steal for the Cincinnati Reds. But there is still a legitimate question as to whether or not Chapman can start in the Major Leagues, particularly given his struggles as a starter in the minors. Chapman was still a strikeout maniac in that role, racking up over 10 per nine innings, but the control was completely lacking. The young Cuban walked over five per nine innings in the starting role, resulting in a 4.01 FIP as a starter and a similar ERA. Chapman’s current value as a starter appears to limited if even existent.

Chapman was successful as a reliever, striking out over 13 per nine innings and walking fewer than four. Given his success, it’s hard for me to envision the Reds moving him out of the bullpen and back into the rotation, and although it’s certainly possible, Chapman would almost certainly require at least one more season in the minors to start. Right now, his potential value as a starter is extremely high due to his insane stuff, but due to his seeming lack of control in that role, it’s also an enigma.

As a reliever, at least we can be somewhat sure that Chapman is ready for the show – he certainly looked it last night. ESPN’s Stats & Info blog compared Chapman to Francisco Rodriguez, which seems like a fair comparison given their uncanny minor league stats. But when a player has shown merely eight pitches in the Major Leagues, it would be irresponsible to project him as equal to a top player at his position. The cautionary tale of Joel Zumaya immediately comes to mind – a player with big time velocity and questionable control much like Chapman. Hopefully Chapman won’t suffer an injury as stupid as Zumaya’s first, but it doesn’t change the fact that Zumaya has only posted 2.7 WAR since 2006, partially as a result of his injury history and partially as a result of his inability to limit walks.

Francisco Rodriguez posted 13.1 WAR from 2003-2008 with the Angels, and given that 2.0+ WAR seasons are limited to the top 10 or so relievers in a given year, I wouldn’t be comfortable projecting much more than that. In that situation, the Reds would be looking at over $50 million for 13 wins, and probably something like $3.8-4.2 million per WAR. That’s roughly market value for the free agent market, which is basically how we should treat Chapman, and with the Reds looking like a team for whom wins will be valuable, that’s fine. But that doesn’t take into account the possibility of collapse, which is certainly real – this is a risky contract for the Reds, which, if it works out, is at best a market value free agent deal if Chapman reaches expectations.

That takes us back to the issue of Chapman as a starter. Although his current value as a starter is low, his future value as a starter is much higher than his future value as a reliever simply due to the inherent value of the two roles. It’s possible that his role in the 2010 Reds’ bullpen may simply be the team’s version of the David Price bullpen experiment of 2008. That would probably be the best way for Cincinnati to approach Chapman’s development, as he could aid in a playoff run now and provide more value than a simple free agent bullpen pickup over the long run. There’s no doubt that Aroldis Chapman is a special talent, but his best pitching should come out of the rotation. The Reds must recognize this, and although it will be tempting to keep that talent in the bullpen come 2011, sticking to the original plan and developing Chapman into a starting pitcher with A+ stuff will almost certainly realize more value for the franchise.