When the Washington Nationals traded Ryan Langerhans to the Seattle Mariners for Mike Morse, the court of public opinion ruled the Mariners as the immediate victors. Morse was nothing more than a bump on the organizational log. A shortstop without defensive ability is a fancy way of saying a player of any other position without offensive competence. Langerhans held the leather and some wood too, but was stricken with no playing time. He caught the baseball as often as the pine or minor league bus.

The Nationals’ decision against playing Langerhans acted as another trace in their breaths of incompetence. Yet, Langerhans’ career with the Mariners has been no different. Maybe it is not a surprise that Morse has 13 more plate appearances in 2010 than Langerhans as a Mariner. It is a surprise, however, that Morse has played so well this season. Not just in comparison to Langerhans either.

One glance at Morse’s line and he’s got it all. A .300 batting average, an on-base percentage near .360, a slugging percentage of .529 oozes pizzazz. The difference is not an increase in batted average on balls in play (although .343 remains well above league average) nor even a change in ratios like walk rate (7.2% this season versus 6.6% for his previous seasons) or strikeout rate (21.3% this season versus 20.7% career). Instead, Morse’s .380 wOBA is engaged to his .229 ISO and 38% of his hits this season have gone for extra bases, whereas only 27% of his hits entering this year racked up multiple bases.

Expectations for power gain at age 28 exist. Morse’s six-foot-five frame supports the idea too. Whether this level of power is sustainable or not is anyone’s guess. I have inhibitions about saying it is because Morse having a similar ISO to Ryan Howard on a single season basis just feels wrong. His minor league seasons never included quite this much pop and neither have his major league counterparts besides 55 plate appearances worth last year.

Some players do just get better. Maybe Morse is one of those players.

To say that Dan Johnson is something of a cult figure among Rays fans and bloggers may be something of an understatement. Despite the fact that the 31 year old journeyman and former NPBer has only appeared in 42 games as a Tampa Bay Ray, he’s already earned his own nickname from the incomparable Jonah Keri: The Great Pumpkin. Why? Because of this:

Rises up once a year, kills the Red Sox, goes back into the ground. And he’s a ginger too.

Not only that, but now he’s getting his own holiday:

On this, the twenty-first day of September in the year two-thousand and ten, we, the DRaysBay staff, do heartily proclaim that henceforth, every September 9th shall be celebrated among the Rays’ Faithful as “Great Pumpkin Day”, in honor of Dan Johnson’s repeated heroic performances for the Tampa Bay Rays.

For in the Rays’ need, Dan Johnson (or as he is know in the Kerian tongue, “The Great Pumpkin”) has come forth from the great Pumpkin Patch of Obscurity to deliver blow after blow to the Great Enemies, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Great in might and long in pocketbook, these Enemies have plagued the Rays for many a year and have been immune to even the heartiest of assaults, yet none can withstand the stroke of The Great Pumpkin.

This may seem like an abnormal amount of fanfare for a player with a career wOBA of .336 at first base, and, as mentioned above, only 42 games as a Tampa Bay Ray. In those 42 games, Johnson has only accrued 141 plate appearances and 0.6 WAR. That’s hardly worth celebrating, much less creating a holiday out of.

Johnson’s performance, however, has been remarkable in context. In the 2008 season in which the Rays won the AL East and reached the World Series, Johnson received 28 plate appearances in September and compiled +.12 WPA, including a game-tying home run against Jonathan Papelbon in his first game back in the Major Leagues on September 9th.

It’s what Johnson has done in 2010 that has truly rallied the Rays’ fanbase around him. In 113 plate appearances since August, Johnson has posted a fine .374 wOBA and 0.5 WAR. More impressive, however, is his +0.88 WPA, in part bolstered by a solid +0.36 clutch score. Johnson has had more late game heroics this season, including a go ahead home run as part of this two home run game against the Yankees and yet another home run against Papelbon on August 28th, this time of the walk-off variety.

With Evan Longoria out for the weekend, Johnson will get an opportunity to play third base for the Rays against the Mariners. With how well the Great Pumpkin has played – and his minor league numbers back up this kind of performance – the Rays will likely try their hardest to get him in the lineup as the season ends and into the playoffs. By that time, it’s likely that opposing pitchers will understand to beware The Great Pumpkin.

Want to watch playoff baseball in September? This weekend, you get a chance.

Having lost four in a row, the Colorado Rockies put their season on the line against the San Francisco Giants, who hold a 3 1/2 game lead over them in the NL West. Sweep and they’re right back in this thing – anything less and their odds of playing in October mostly vanish.

The Rockies have about a 3 percent chance of making the playoffs right now. They’re in a pretty big hole, but this weekend presents baseball’s version of a way to climb out of it. It won’t be easy – taking three straight from a good baseball team never is, and the Rockies will have to do it without Ubaldo Jimenez. Jhoulys Chacin, Jason Hammel, and Jorge de la Rosa will have to carry the day, and they’re going to have to figure out how to put runs on the board against a red hot pitching staff.

Don’t put money on the Rockies taking all three, but series like this are why we love baseball. You want the last week of the season to mean something? Win three in a row. Earn it.

The things that we remember, the things that we talk about, the things that go down in history are not the ordinary, expected outcomes. No one cares when the probable occurs. It’s the can-you-believe-that-happened experiences that create memories, and the Rockies have a chance to give their fans that kind of memory this weekend. Beat up on the Giants at home, put yourself back in the race, and I guarantee that there will be some kids in Denver who become baseball fans for life.

On the other side of the coin, the Giants have a chance to make this a two horse race. If they win the series, they’ll have one less team to worry about, and could conceivably end up getting enough of a lead where the final weekend series against San Diego might not matter all that much, especially if Atlanta’s struggles continue.

Colorado-San Francisco is the most important baseball series we’ve had this year. One team’s season is on the line, while the other can give themselves a great chance of playing in October with a strong performance on the road. It’s great drama, and it’s the kind of series to get excited about.

Forget Red Sox-Yankees – this is the match-up of the weekend. It should be a lot of fun.

With the playoffs right around the corner, certain playoff-bound rotations in the American League are shaping up in curious ways. so over the next week or so I’ll be taking a brief look at each of them as they head for the post-season.

I’ve briefly listed some of each player’s current-season stats, and since we’re interested in how these players are likely to perform in the playoffs, I’ve also included some numbers from CHONE’s August projections update. I’ve listed CHONE’s nERA, which is (I believe) a component ERA neutralized for context, and also a FIP that I derived from the projected lines.

Thanks to NBC Hardballtalk’s Aaron Gleeman for sharing his thoughts on the Twins likely’ playoff rotation for me, although he shouldn’t be held responsible for my inevitable mistakes.

1) Francisco Liriano CHONE: nERA 3.66, FIP 3.61
2010: 6.3 WAR, 2.44 FIP, 3.08 xFIP, 2.73 tERA, 3.44 ERA

Remember back in the pre-season when there were rumblings that the Twins were thinking of moving Liriano to the bullpen? Ahem. Most of the AL Cy Young Angst indignation is for the sake of Felix Hernandez, and its justifiable, but spare a moment of for Liriano (Cliff Lee, too), who has been somewhat forgotten. But about the playoffs: CHONE’s projection may seem conservative, but the program doesn’t know how much the past seasons’ performance was influenced by Tommy John recovery or not, and neither do I. I would tend to give a bit more weight on the current season, but that’s an non-expert opinion. A left-handed groundball machine with tons of strikeouts? Yes, please. With all due respect to David Price and CC Sabathia, I think that the only other playoff starter in the AL playoffs as good as Liriano right now is Cliff Lee (assuming Lee’s back is in working order).

2) Carl Pavano CHONE nERA 4.30, CHONE FIP 4.14
2010: 3.2 WAR, 3.92 FIP, 4.00 xFIP, 4.10 tERA, 3.60 ERA

If the Twins face the Yankees, would the Yanks be looking for revenge on Pavano, or Pavano on the Yankees? While Pavano isn’t a strikeout machine, he rarely walks a hitter and keeps the ball on the ground, which will be doubly helpful given Minnesota’s terrible outfield defense. He’s somewhere around league average as a pitcher, but given the condition of some of the other playoff rotations, he isn’t a liability.

3) Brian Duensing CHONE nERA 4.36, CHONE FIP 4.41
2010: 1.9 WAR, 3.51 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, 2.73 tERA, 2.19 ERA

The 2010 stats mix in about 45 innings of relief with about 75 of starting, but Duensing has been a very pleasant surprise for the Twins’ rotation given the injuries to Baker and Slowey. CHONE doesn’t think he’s nearly as good as his current season line, and that is understandable, but while his strikeout rate isn’t impressive, the lack of walks and groundball rates are. Duensing might turn into a pumpkin, but a team could do much worse for an injury replacement.

4) Nick Blackburn CHONE nERA 4.83, CHONE FIP 4.72
2010: 0.5 WAR, 4.96 FIP, 4.68 xFIP, 4.96 tERA, 5.23 ERA

I’d be more concerned about having to start Blackburn than Duensing. The good groundball rate is there, but it doesn’t make up for the Horacio Ramirez-esque strikeout rate. Having a guy like Blackburn as your #4-#5 starter is okay in the regular season, but is a real weak spot going into the playoffs. He’s been better in August and September, but I’m unconvinced. Thankfully for the Twins he’ll only have to start once during a series barring something unforeseen.

The Question Marks:

Scott Baker CHONE nERA 4.10, CHONE FIP 4.11
2010: 2.5 WAR, 3.94 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 4.15 tERA, 4.52 ERA

I still think Baker is the Twins’ second-best pitcher when healthy, and if he can’t start in the playoffs it’s a blow to the Twins, especially if Slowey can’t go either, as would mean the Twins have to hope Duensing will keep it up and for the other pitchers to dominate the non-Blackburn starts. Baker’s not a dominating pitcher, and his flyball tendency plays into the Twins’ defensive weakness, but he has a good K rate and avoids walks. He’s a better match for other teams #2 and #3 starters than Pavano and Duensing when he’s healthy, but health is his issue at the moment.

Kevin Slowey CHONE nERA 4.38, CHONE FIP 4.27
2010: 2.3 WAR, 3.94 FIP, 4.48 xFIP, 4.08 tERA, 4.18 ERA

Slowey is sort of a poor man’s Baker (flyball pitcher, fewer Ks, but also fewer walks). Duensing’s emergence takes some of the sting out of Slowey’s injury issues, but as said above, if Baker can’t go either, that means Nick Blackburn is probably starting a playoff game at some point.

In summary, while injuries have taken their toll on the Twins, Pavano is no slouch, Duensing has held his his own, and Liriano has been as good as any pitcher in the American League this season. Other rotations have had their problems too, and if Baker can get healthy, the Twins’ rotation stacks up against other playoff teams better than it has in years.

Javier Vazquez entered the 6th inning against the Tampa Bay Rays last night by walking Ben Zobrist. What ensued afterward was horrific for Yankee fans to watch, as he proceeded to hit not one, not two, but three consecutive batters, including Desmond Jennings and Willy Aybar on consecutive pitches. Here are the characteristics of the three HBPs:

1. 67 MPH curveball to RHH
2. 91 MPH fastball to RHH
3. 73 MPH curveball to RHH

It’s just been that kind of year for Vazquez. His K/9 is down from 9.77 last year to 7.10 this year. More concerning is his current 3.67 BB/9, a career high. He has also more than doubled his home runs allowed rate and increased his FIP from 2.77 last season (.297 BABIP) to 5.34 this season (.274 BABIP). Looking at plate discipline statistics, Vazquez has a career low in Zone% this season with 45.0% (compared to 49.4% from last season). Batters are also getting more contact this season when they swing (Contact% of 81.2%) compared to last season (73.3%). Both first pitch strikes and swinging strikes are down significantly.

A look at the density plots of each of Vazquez’s pitches may tell us which pitch Vazquez has lost control of this season. Vazquez throws a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. Let’s take a look at Vazquez’s fastballs against both RHH and LHH in 2009 and 2010:

The red points represent fastballs from all right-handed pitchers that hit the batter that season to give an idea of where the batter stands. It appears that Vazquez is throwing many more fastballs outside of the zone this season compared to last. Both fastballs to RHH and LHH are outside the zone more often in 2010. Let’s look at Vazquez’s sliders:

Against RHH, Vazquez is throwing a lot more low and away sliders, some of them presumably in the dirt. Against LHH, Vazquez is throwing a lot more inside sliders this season than last season, coming dangerously close to hitting left-handed hitters. Let’s look at Vazquez’s curveballs:

At first glance, it looks like Vazquez is hitting the strikezone more when throwing curveballs to RHH, as well as avoiding curveballs that land a foot below the strikezone. There do seem to be more high, hanging curveballs than before against both RHH and LHH. Finally, let’s look at Vazquez’s changeups:

Vazquez is hitting the strikezone more with changeups against RHH and seems to be throwing more outside changeups to LHH. A look at Vazquez’s pitch type values shows significant decreases in values for all of his pitches. With the exception of changeups, the run value of all of Vazquez’s pitches have been below average. Still, even if Vazquez is hitting the zone more often with his changeups, his wCH/C decreased from a stellar 2.56 runs above average per 100 changeups down to 0.03 runs this season, suggesting that Vazquez’s decline has more to do than just loss of control.

September is the perfect time to begin to make plans for the next season, to test prospects and start the process of shoring up holes. Previously, I have written up the Major League debuts of three pitchers: Mike Minor, Kyle Drabek and Brandon Beachy. But the next logical step is to tackle hitters, and those September call-ups are just now getting to the level of proper evaluation. The White Sox have recently been testing Brent Morel at third base, giving him the last seven starts at that position. He’s been a bit over his head, hitting .188/.235/.438, but has mixed in enough to sustain the optimism with two home runs and sure-handed defense. I went through every PA that Morel has had in his 11 games (34 in all), to see if it might help inform the statistics when we think about his future.

Morel hasn’t drawn the easiest assignments in his seven games as starter, going against Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson. For what it’s worth, he homered off Scherzer, a flyball to center field that had really good backspin. What’s weird is that you look at that list and it seems to explain his SwStr%, which is above the league average (8.5%) at 12.2%. In total, Morel has swung and missed on 17 pitches this month. Six of those have been fastballs. Yet not a single of those fastballs was from one of the great pitchers above. Four of the seven breaking balls were, but the fastballs came from the likes of Craig Breslow and Boof Bonser.

Morel clearly doesn’t have a problem with velocity. In fact, he doesn’t really have a problem with fastballs at all. Both his home runs were off fastballs, and it’s certainly the pitch he tries to isolate within an at-bat. If you want to know the book on Brent Morel, look no further than Justin Verlander’s approach against him on September 18. Morel had four plate appearances against the Tigers ace, spanning 21 pitches: 8 curveballs, 5 sliders, 5 fastballs, and 3 change-ups. Yes, the pitcher that threw fastballs 58.5% of the time this year, averaging in at 95.4 mph, went to the heater just 23.8% of the time against the White Sox rookie.

Like many young hitters, the key is breaking stuff low and away. If you look at his swings at TexasLeaguers.com, you’ll see four pitches he offered at above the zone, two inside, and 11 pitches low (most low and away). He has no discipline in that part of the zone. On pitches high in the zone, another weakness we often see in young hitters, it’s just the opposite. I could give you numerous examples in the last two weeks of catchers calling for the high fastball with two strikes, with Morel watching the pitch go by. Or, even more often, if the pitch isn’t too far out of the zone, he’ll hit it foul. He does that often, as 21 of the 139 pitches he’s been thrown (15.1%) have been hit out of play.

The youngster earns a plus grade for his two-strike approach, which, with improved performance on the low-and-away slider, should help sustain those better-than-average strikeout numbers we’ve seen in the minor leagues. But I think it will take a couple years to lay off that pitch, so it’s going to be a slow crawl back to 15%. I plug his numbers into this xBABIP calculator, and it says he should be at .312, and yet now he’s at .190. There’s just been some bad luck on batted balls; I have at least three in my notes that were hard-hit balls ending up in a glove, including a particularly hard hit would-be double that landed just foul. That stuff will even out next year, I think.

The real question, the big question, is about his ultimate power. After 16 home runs in High-A in 2009, Morel had just 10 in the minors this year, before recently adding two more in the Major Leagues. I have not seen the kid take batting practice yet, which I believe is necessary in evaluating power, but I do think this is someone that will hit 20 home runs in the Major Leagues. Not many more, but he’s not Dustin Ackley, with an approach that runs counter to hitting for power. Morel’s goal, at every at-bat, is to take a middle-in fastball to left-center field. 

After watching all 34 plate appearances, my grade on Morel would actually be higher than it was entering this article concept. He has one glaring weakness, but it’s one that should improve out of habit and in time. He generally shows signs of good contact skills, an approach conducive to average power for the position, and I didn’t think it necessary today to re-tread the established fact that he’s good defensively. I certainly think he could be worth at least 2-2.5 WAR next year, which is a lot more than you can say of Mark Teahen and Omar Vizquel in 2010.

You want to know why the San Francisco Giants are in first place in the NL West right now? Their team ERA in September is 1.47.

That is not a typo. One point four seven. They have allowed 33 runs in 20 games. The Angels, who have the second fewest runs allowed this month, have given up 59. The Brewers, in third place, have given up 66. The Giants have allowed half as many runs this month as the team that has given up the third fewest in baseball.

Their pitching has been ridiculous. Here are their performances and ranks in the core pitching stats for September.

BB/9: 2.12 (1st)
K/9: 8.44 (3rd)
GB%: 47.9% (5th)

Their staff has essentially pitched like a collective of Adam Wainwrights. Even when you regress their HR/FB and BABIP rates (both unsustainably low, as you would suspect of any team with a 1.47 ERA), you’re still looking at a team xFIP of 3.34 this month, which is the equivalent of Mat Latos‘ season.

It has been a total team effort, with essentially the entire pitching staff throwing lights out every night. Matt Cain has the lowest strikeout rate of any of the starters, but he’s made up for it with a ridiculous 0.96 BB/9. Barry Zito hasn’t had good command, but he’s upped his K/9 to 8.31 this month. Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner have done both, avoiding walks and racking up strikeouts in bunches.

And then there’s the bullpen. In 50 innings pitched, they’ve allowed three runs. Seven of the nine relievers that have pitched for San Francisco this month have an ERA of 0.00. Brian Wilson (1.00) and Jeremy Affeldt (1.50) are the slackers who have dared to allow a run. Their .163 BABIP obviously won’t continue, but they have a bullpen full of groundballers who are pounding the strike zone, and that’s a pretty good combination.

The Giants face the suddenly slumping Rockies for three this weekend, and if they keep preventing runs at the rate they have been in September, they’ll put nails into Colorado’s coffin. The Rockies are going to have to figure out how to hit this pitching staff, which no one else has been able to do this month.

This edition of One Night Only totally wasn’t just crying to a Billy Joel song.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

San Francisco (4) at Colorado (6) | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Giants: Tim Lincecum (10)
197.1 IP, 9.62 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, .328 BABIP, 48.5% GB, 9.9% HR/FB, 3.31 xFIP, 4.6 WAR

Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin (8)
125.1 IP, 8.83 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, .301 BABIP, 46.3% GB, 7.6% HR/FB, 3.78 xFIP, 2.9 WAR

Notes
• I’m not a smart man, nor do I probably even know what love really is, but I get that this series is an important one. As of Thursday afternoon, here are your respective postseason odds, per Cool Standings. For the Giants of San Francisco: 42.8% (Division), 13.6% (Wild Card), 56.3% (Overall). For the Rockies of Colorado: 3.8% (Division), 3.0% (Wild Card), 6.8% (Overall).
• If not proof, the Rockies’ rather limited chance of making the postseason represents at least a modest case study in the capacity of narrative to create a gap between appearances and reality. My guess is, you ask your average smart, basebally person, and he’ll give Colorado something better than a 10% chance of making the postseason. And not only that, but even knowing that Colorado has only a 6% chance of making playoffs, I’m guessing that same smart, basebally person is still excited about this weekend’s series. The narrative (division rivals, separated by only three games, featuring pretty great pitching matchups) makes the series far more appealing than the numbers would otherwise suggest. Nor am I suggesting at all that this is a bad thing. I’m suggesting we digest this information and use it for good. Like saving puppies, or something. Yeah, something like that.
• Jhoulys Chacin has been better this year than any reasonable person could’ve possibly anticipated. See his strikeout rate up there (8.83 per nine)? That’s a higher mark for him than at any point during his minor league career. CHONE projected him this way before the season: 7.01 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 5.02 FIP. ZiPS said this: 5.46 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9, 4.79 FIP. Conclusion? Computers don’t know even one thing about baseball. It’s a fact!

Other Notes
Florida (7) at Milwaukee (9), 8:10pm ET
• Brewer prospect Mark Rogers makes his first-ever MLB start tonight. Rogers is a former first-rounder (2004) who missed literally all of the 2007 and 08 seasons. Here are his numbers this season from Double-A Huntsville: 111.2 IP, 8.95 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 0.24 HR/9, 3.58 FIP. Unfortunately for Rogers, StatCorner pegged his tRA+ at only 95 — even at Double-A.

Cincinnati (7) at San Diego (10), 10:05pm ET
• It’s sad, and equally true, that righty Chris Young’s last good season was 2007. He made at least 30 starts each season between 2005 and 2007. In the three years hence, he’s made 34 starts — including only two this season. What’s his contribution likely to be for San Diego’s playoff run? Really, it’s hard to say. He pitched a grand total of 6.1 IP in rehab. He had 4 K and 2 BB. That’s fine, but it’s just not a lot of information.

Pop Quiz
Question
Is Carson Cistulli the type of man to avoid shameless self-promotion?

Answer
No, no, no.

Why I Bring It Up
Because I composed an ode to a couple of this weekend’s bigger football games and fooled Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats into publishing it. (Sucka.)

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

Read the rest of this entry »

Never take the talent of Major League ballplayers for granted. Some players put up poor statistics or look overmatched and yet they are still better than but a fraction of the playing-world’s population. That’s how crazy this game is. The most horrific and heart-bending scene is when a player loses it – ‘it’ being any resemblance of a grip on his talent – during a game. Right there, naked in front of the world.

I’m not sure that Javier Vazquez lost it last night, but he forced the issue. He settled down and his final line looks respectable: three innings, one hit, two earned runs, two walks, three strikeouts, and the highlighted number in the column: three hit batsmen. During his first inning, Vazquez was straight-up pyridine, possessing flammable and odorous qualities reserved for a colorless liquid, like the sweat beads dripping down his face and stinging his vision.

Trailing by six in the seventh inning, the Yankees held a win expectancy under 5% when Vazquez entered. He walked Ben Zobrist on six pitches- not an unusual result. He then hit Desmond Jennings’ numbers with an erred curveball. Willy Aybar would then take a ball to the shin to load the bases. A pitch later, a blundering curve that never stood a chance of crossing the plate hit Kelly Shoppach in the upper back. Just like that, a run scored.

At that moment, the television cameras began to focus on Jay Z leaving the stadium. The image of which caused a startling juxtaposition between the humored, if not enthralled, rap mogul and the enthralled, if not humored, mound gull. Dan Johnson took advantage of Vazquez’s misfortune with a sac fly into right field, allowing a runner to score. B.J. Upton walked, and then, well, then Vazquez did something completely unexpected. Recorded an out, yes, but via strikeout. Carl Crawford followed with a catchable flyball to right field.

Vazquez headed off to regain his breath and spirit after avoiding a complete meltdown.

With a solo home run against Felix Hernandez in the first inning of today’s game against the Mariners, Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays hit his 50th home run of the season, becoming the first player this season and the first since Prince Fielder and Alex Rodriguez in 2007. Bautista is now the 26th player to accomplish this feat in Major League history.

Let’s go deeper into Bautista’s home runs with the help of the fantastic Hit Tracker Online. With a rough estimate of 395 feet on Bautista’s home run today, his 50 home runs traveled a whopping 20,167 feet. That’s 3.82 miles, or roughly the distance of one Adam Dunn home run.

Even though the Rogers Centre has probably helped Bautista – it has a 114 park factor for right handed home runs, according to StatCorner, there’s little doubt that Bautista has hit the tar out of the ball this season. His average home run distance of 403.5 feet and average speed off the bat of 106.8 miles per hour are both well above the MLB averages of 396.7 and 103.3 respectively. Yes, Bautista has hit 11 “Just Enough” home runs – those that cleared the fence by 10 vertical feet or fewer or landed only one fence length beyond the fence – but that’s simply a function of the pure volume of home runs he has hit this season. His 18 “No Doubt” homers – those that cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed 50 feet past the fence – are by far the most in the league, with Adam Dunn coming in second with 14.

Finally, let’s take a look at where Bautista has hit these home runs.

[Click to embiggen]

I think it’s safe to call Bautista the King of Left Field this season. His Majesty’s domain has seen 45 of his 50 homers, with left field defined as those home runs between 135 and 105 degrees on the above chart. The other 5 landed in the left half of center field.

Jose Bautista will, barring a minor miracle, lead the Major Leagues in home runs this season after toiling away in relative obscurity for the first six years of his career. Although his 20.9% HR/FB rate is a bit of an anomaly compared to his career numbers, it’s not that out there for someone with solid power in a hitter’s park. Nobody should be projecting Bautista for 50 home runs again next season, but there are certainly reasons to believe that he should continue to be a threat at the plate for the Blue Jays. Congratulations to Bautista on his majestic achievement.