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The Tigers have plenty of holes to fill for 2011, and it appears as though they have the payroll to make the requisite changes. Impending free agents like Magglio Ordonez, Jeremy Bonderman, and Johnny Damon will clear more than $65 million from the payroll. What’s more, the Tigers don’t figure to pay out any significant arbitration raises this winter. This leaves them plenty of room to improve the club via free agency.

We’ve heard them connected with free agent to-be Adrian Beltre, who could provide a considerable upgrade over free agent to-be Brandon Inge. But the Tigers threw us a curveball this morning by announcing that they had signed Inge to a two-year extension. It didn’t take long for people to assume that Inge will remain at third base full time. That’s understandable. Inge has, after all, played 305 games at third base in the past two seasons, and in five out of the last six seasons he’s been the team’s primary man at the position. But that doesn’t mean he’s very good at it.

Inge’s 2.1 WAR suggests he had a good season in 2010, despite offensive futility. His .314 wOBA ranked 17th among MLB third basemen, right alongside the disappointing Pablo Sandoval. His offense hasn’t exactly been in decline lately, since his wOBA is right in line with last year, and a bit better than it was in 2007 and 2008. But it is clear at this point that Inge does not hit adequately for a third baseman. Gone are the days of even a .330 wOBA.

Where Inge provides value is with his glove. In 2006 and 2007 he was among the premier defenders at third base, accumulating a 30.2 UZR in 2701.2 innings. Since then he’s been above average, but not at an elite level. In 2010 his 3.1 UZR ranked ninth among qualified third basemen. It was the second time in three years that his range rated as a negative.

What I’m questioning with this move is whether Detroit intends Inge to be their 2011 third baseman. They can probably contend with a 2.1 WAR player at third, but that’s assuming that Inge, entering his age-34 season, can maintain even that level of production. If his skills on offense fade he’ll become an even more noticeable black hole in the lineup. If his skills on defense fade he’ll become essentially useless. Are the Tigers really comfortable with that kind of situation at third base?

Given all the holes the team has to fill this winter, perhaps they’re content to keep Inge and spend money where it’s most needed. If Inge can hold stead at 2 WAR for the two-year duration of the contract he will enable the Tigers to improve the club elsewhere. It’s certainly a risk with a 34-year-old player who has had a wRC+ of over 100 just twice in 10 seasons, but it’s one the Tigers might need to take if they want to upgrade other aspects of the ball club.

In a tight playoff game that could be the tipping point in Charlie Manuel’s season, the veteran skipper decided to go to starter Roy Oswalt in the bottom of the ninth to face the heart of the Giants order. Oswalt, who was scheduled to pitch Game 6 (if there were to be one), was going on two days rest. Oswalt wound up only getting two outs, one of which came at the expense of the winning sacrifice fly. Playing Monday Morning Quarterback, we can now approach the question of whether the move to Oswalt was the “correct” decision.

I think the answer to this problem can be both misleading and tricky. This was undoubtedly the most important game of the series for the Phillies; if they were to win, they would tie the series at 2-2 rather than being down 3-1, and with Roy Halladay on the mound in the next game would have a fantastic chance at going up 3-2 and only having to win one of the final two games to advance to the World Series. What does this mean? That Charlie Manuel was probably justified in bringing in any non-Halladay pitcher if it were necessary. The game, and specifically the moment in the game, was just too important to leave up to a pitcher who was less than the best available.

However, that begs the question: Was Roy Oswalt the best option for Charlie Manuel in the ninth inning yesterday? The other options left were starter/long reliever Kyle Kendrick, closer Brad Lidge, and lefty J.C. Romero. Oswalt was without a doubt the most valuable pitcher left, but whether he was the best one at the moment is a different story. Oswalt had just thrown eight innings (111 pitches) two days before and has little-to-no experience on that short of rest. Besides being tired, a pitcher who has just thrown a ton a few days earlier may have a tougher time getting ready to come in as a reliever, especially when that pitcher is a starter completely alien to the situation.

Moreover, it’s questionable why Manuel went to Oswalt before he went to his closer and best left-handed reliever. Going to Oswalt is not something you want to do, and he was not the last option available. Manuel could have easily gone to his closer, the guy who is supposed to be made for these late, tight situations. If Lidge got into trouble, he had the option of going to Romero for a lefty or even bringing in Oswalt to bail him out. Still, the logic applies both ways. To go to Oswalt, Manuel really had to have a ton more faith in Oswalt in that situation over Lidge.

Finally, the question of Oswalt’s availability for Game 6 comes into play. Of course, if you lose that game there may be no Game 6, but with Roy Halladay on the hill for Game 5 you have a pretty good shot of seeing the series go at least six games. Oswalt only wound up throwing eighteen pitches, and Manuel said that he does not believe that is enough to hinder Oswalt’s next start, but Manuel didn’t know how much Roy would throw at the start of the inning. Also, regardless of exactly how many pitches Oswalt threw, his entrance may mess him up in some way for his Game 6 start.

Still, as said earlier, if Oswalt was the best pitcher available for the ninth inning yesterday, it was probably the right move by Manuel. But Oswalt’s long start two days prior, along with the other options left in the pen, makes it less likely that he was correctly pinned as Option A. However, I said earlier this problem is tricky, and there might not be a truly “correct” answer.

This post is (a) talking about the issues, but also (b) keeping it funky.

Philadelphia at San Francisco | NLCS, Game Five | 7:57pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Phillies: Roy Halladay
250.2 IP, 7.86 K/9, 1.08 BB/9, .298 BABIP, 51.2% GB, 11.3% HR/FB, 2.92 xFIP, 6.6 WAR

Giants: Tim Lincecum
212.1 IP, 9.79 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, .324 BABIP, 48.9% GB, 9.9% HR/FB, 3.21 xFIP, 5.1 WAR

Notes
In the event that you weren’t there to witness it in its primetime glory, allow me to tell you briefly about the show My Two Dads. Actually, allow me to allow Wikipedia to tell you:

The show begins when Marcy Bradford (Emma Samms), the mother of Nicole Bradford (Staci Keanan), dies. The two men who had competed for the woman’s affections before Nicole was born — Michael Taylor (Paul Reiser) and Joey Harris (Greg Evigan) — are awarded joint custody of Nicole. The mix-ups of two single straight men raising a teen-aged daughter provided the story each week. Judge Margaret W. Wilbur (Florence Stanley), a family court judge, would frequently visit the new family and served as Nicole’s mentor.

That’s not a bad description of the show but for one omission: any mention of the respective dads’ equal and opposite personalities. Reiser’s Michael is conservative, deliberate, and works in finance; Evigan’s Joey — well, that pierced ear should tell you everything you need to know. Dude is crazy!

In any case, the moral of exactly every episode of My Two Dads goes like this: Michael and Joey are different people, and this is made manifest in their approaches to parenting, but both are equally good dads because of how much they love their little Nicole.

Tonight’s pitching match-up, if I may blow your minds for a minute, is like an episode of My Two Dads written for baseball. Halladay is Reiser: understated, efficient. Lincecum is Joey: unorthodox, long-haired, marijuana. But both arrive at the same fundamental end — i.e. dominating their opponent.

The differences/similarities are perhaps most notable in each pitcher’s walk and strikeout numbers. If we judge the two pitchers’ command by the traditional K:BB, Halladay wins easily: 6.3:1 versus Lincecum’s 3.1:1. Those are both good ratios, but Halladay has the advantage on account of his low walk rates.

However, the always-right Tom Tango wrote in March that, rather than using K:BB ratio to adjudge command, we actually ought to use the difference between a pitcher’s strikeouts and walks per batter faced. By that measure, here are the top-10 pitchers this season (with at least 10 starts):

What you’ll notice there — besides the fact that Stephen Strasburg needs to get well soon and Cliff Lee is acually a robot-person — is that Lincecum, though he has a considerably less impressive K:BB ratio than Halladay, actually compares favorably so far as strikeout and walk difference is concerned. Like Joey, he takes an unorthodox approach to his job (parenting, pitching), but ends up in roughly the same places as his more conservative counterpart.

Of course, the analogy isn’t air-tight. Owing to his whiff-based approach, it follows that Lincecum is forced to throw more pitches. In fact, he threw 16.2 per inning this season — as opposed to Halladay’s 14.2. That adds up: Halladay pitched almost 40 more innings in the same exact number of starts (33) as Lincecum. Over the course of the season, that’s valuable.

We can assume that tonight, however — in our first elimination game of the Championship Series — that pitch counts will take a back seat to victory. In this single match-up we’ll be able see each pitcher become entirely himself.

As the Yankees pulled up lame in Game 4 of the ALCS, so did their first baseman. The Yankees had blown a bases loaded, one out opportunity in the fourth, but then threatened again in the fifth. Mark Teixeira came to the plate with runners on first and second with none out, but as he has done so frequently this postseason he hit the ball weakly on the ground. As he raced down the line to beat out the double play, it appeared as though he attempted a slide into first. Replay showed that he grabbed his hamstring and collapsed. When Joe Girardi and trainer Steve Donahue helped Teixeira off the field, it was clear that he would not play another game in the 2010 postseason.

While Nick Swisher grabbed his first baseman’s glove and finished the game, Lance Berkman will man the position the rest of the way. This changes the Yankees’ lineup dynamic. Previously they were using Berkman as the DH against right-handed pitchers and Marcus Thames against lefties. With Teixeira out both Berkman and Thames are pressed into full-time duty. That’s not a situation the Yankees can be happy about.

The Yankees signed Thames to provide some pop off the bench against left-handed pitching. Because of an early-season injury to Nick Johnson he got more of an opportunity, and he ran with it. His .365 wOBA was his highest since 2006, and he actually fared better against righties than against lefties. That success has not carried over to the postseason, though, as Thames has gone just 4 for 20 with a homer and two walks.

Berkman came over in a deadline trade with Houston knowing that he’d be relegated to part-time DH duties. While he is a switch hitter in name, he has produced poor numbers against left-handed pitching in the past two years. After a .305 wOBA in 148 PA in 2009 he had a mere .236 wOBA in 92 PA against LHP this season. The Yankees have really gone out of their way to avoid having him face lefties this season, routinely substituting Thames even if they know the opposing manager will bring in a right-handed pitcher from the pen.

Unless Girardi decides that Austin Kearns is ready to stop striking out every other at-bat, it appears as though both Thames and Berkman will play every day. They will likely switch lineup spots depending on the opposing pitcher’s handedness. Against a lefty yesterday Thames hit fifth and Berkman sixth. But against a righty we could see Swisher fifth, Berkman sixth, Jorge Posada seventh, and Thames eighth. Having a .340 career wOBA player in the eighth hole illustrates the depth of the Yankees lineup, even without their No. 3 hitter.

Teixeira’s complete lack of production makes his loss easier to handle. He had an up and down season that ended up being his worst since his rookie campaign. Things did get better during the summer months, as Teixeira produced a .488 wOBA in July and a .411 wOBA in August, but he dipped back down in September and produced a .312 wOBA. It appeared as though he had put that behind him for the postseason, as he went 2 for 5, including a go-ahead two-run homer, in Game 1. For the Twins series he went 4 for 13 with a double and a homer, but once the team go to Texas Teixeira fell back into his April habits. In his four ALCS games he got on base just three times, all via the walk.

In this sense, removing him from the lineup can be a positive for the Yankees. The offense hasn’t exactly been stagnant this series, as they’ve put 47 runners on base in the five games. But every time they get men into scoring position they run into either bad luck or a slumping hitter. Of the 50 at-bats they’ve had with runners in scoring position they’ve managed a hit just eight times — and one of those didn’t score a run. Given Teixeira’s talent we can assume that his futility wouldn’t have lasted forever. But there didn’t appear to be any signs that he was going to turn it around in this series.

The real question facing the Yankees is of whether Berkman can hit left-handed pitching. His two-year downturn against them has come in a small sample, so there’s not much we can tell from the data alone. His ability to transition back into an every day player will play a large part in determining how far the Yankees make it. Even if he produces a day like yesterday, in which he went 0 for 2 with a walk and a sac fly, he can help the team even if he’s not picking up big hits from the right side. If he can’t, then it means Swisher at first and Kearns in the outfield. But then again, if he can’t then it’s not likely the Yankees will make it far enough to make that substitution.

Losing Mark Teixeira will hurt any team, but there is no team more prepared for his absence than the Yankees. They endured his slumps this season, and they’re well positioned to deal with his injury in the postseason. Having both Berkman and Thames in the lineup every day might not seem like an ideal scenario, but it’s a better solution than most teams have available. If Berkman gets hot, it might even mean a positive for the Yankees offense.

First off, given some of the howling on twitter, it’s time for the obligatory strike zone plot. Let’s get it out of the way, thanks to Brooks Baseball.

It’s pretty ugly, but consistent enough. It was four or five inches too wide, or a half a foot if you count both sides. But there are plenty of triangles and squares out there beyond the box, so let’s not blame it all on umpire Wally Bell.

For all the talk of how similar Madison Bumgarner and Joe Blanton were going into the game, it’s somewhat prescient that they both failed to get out of the fifth inning and that they both left having given up three earned runs. On the other hand, the journey was not necessarily so similar. Bumgarner does use his left hand, and he did strike out six and allow only one run to score while he was on the bump, while Blanton struck out three and was directly responsible for all of his runs. It wasn’t all bad for Blanton – all of his balls in play were counted as groundballs – but it since the starters played to a standstill on the scoreboard, the advantage goes to the hometown pitcher.

Phillies fans can’t even blame the randomness of coming through in high leverage moments in this one – there were eight moments with a leverage index over one last night. The Phillies batters came through in two of them, and the Giants batters came through in two of them. It may seem that the Giants were more ‘clutch,’ but that would probably just be because they came up last. To the home-fielders went the spoils.

At this point, some of the blame must rest squarely on the Phillies’ stars. In this game, Chase Utley put up a -10.8% in win probability by going one for five and not coming through in some key moments. That comes on the heels of a -12% in game three (0-for-4), +3.8% in game two (0-for-3 with two walks), and a -1.8% in game one (1-for-3 with a walk). It’s obviously just a poor four-game stretch for a great secondbaseman, but it’s also bad timing for that stretch. The same could be said for Jimmy Rollins (.267, 1 extra base hit) and Jayson Werth (.250, 1 extra base hit).

The larger pattern is one of struggles for all of the left-handers on the team. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, the recently benched Raul Ibanez, and young Domonic Brown are a combined 7-for-39 with 7 walks and 3 extra-base hits, and most of that is Howard’s production. Maybe it’s not a surprise given the left arms of Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, but Javier Lopez looms as a large acquisition for the Giants in this series. He has three big holds and gave up his first run Wednesday night. His lefty sidearm release has been hard on the lefty batters, and that makes sense given the difference in release points vis-a-vis a regular right-hander.

All this said, it was a great game. The WPA graph does a good job showing the rollercoaster that was Wednesday night. Fans of baseball were satisfied, if not fans of Phillie baseball.

Despite having to face the Phillies’ annoyingly-nicknamed (but awesomely talented) “H2O” pitching trio consisting of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels, the widely-panned San Francisco Giants find themselves up two games to one going into tonight’s NLCS Game Four. Much of this is due, of course, to the Giants also having marched three pretty good starters to the mound so far in Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and Matt Cain. Despite Cody Ross’s best efforts, runs have been generally difficult to come by in this series, and it is easy to understand why. Tonight’s starters are less exalted than their predecessors, but given the Giants’ talent level and the Phillies’ offensive drought, a high-scoring game isn’t exactly “due.”

Earlier this afternoon Carson gave a brief preview of the staring pitchers, and he is correct to note the striking similarities in many aspects of the Giants’ Game 4 starter Madison Bumgarner and his Phillies counterpart Joe Blanton. Both have relatively neutral batted-ball profiles, strike out about an average number of hitters, and avoid walks. While some will tout Blanton’s “experience” as an advantage for the Phillies, Bumgarner didn’t exactly seem overwhelmed with nerves in his impressive start against the Braves in the divisional round. The Phillies’ biggest area of superiority in this matchup was supposed to be their offense, but the Giants have kept Philadelphia’s hitters in check so far. It will be interesting to see how the southpaw Bumgarner fares against the Phillies left-handed hitters. Although Chase Utley has displayed a slight “reverse” platoon split over the years, Ryan Howard has fared quite badly against lefties, and after reverse splits in 2008 and 2009, Raul Ibanez has regressed to a traditional split as well. Although Jayson Werth has hit both righties and lefties well this season, for his career he’s been a real lefty-killer.

On the other side of the ball, while the Giants offense has done enough to get them this far in the playoffs, as one would expect from the regular season, they haven’t been very impressive, notwithstanding the serendipitous pick-up of Ross. Bruce Bochy sat the slumping Andre Torres in favor of Aaron Rowand last night, and while the Giants won the game, San Francisco’s fans have to hope that Bochy will weigh Torres’ performance over the last season-and-a-half heavier than the last few games and reinsert him in the lineup (lineups are not available yet as I write), given that Rowand will be without the platoon advantage tonight, not to mention Torres’ superior defense (assuming Torres is in good health). If the Giants insist on starting Edgar Renteria tonight, they can help their own cause by not hitting him first. Even better would be starting the buried Pablo Sandoval — who, even after his poor 2010 at the plate, can still outhit Zombie Renteria — if Juan Uribe is able to play shortstop. But hey, they won last night, and Bochy even resisted the urge to intentionally walk anyone (progress!), so I guess it’s working for them so far.

In spite of the fairly-even pitching matchup, in terms of “true talent,” the Phillies’ offense is better than the Giants’. But this series so far is just one more reminder that while true talent is what we project, pennants are awarded on the basis of observed performance, and the Giants have to feel good about their position going into tonight’s game.

This preview contains a hard-hitting poll. Just, FYI.

Philadelphia at San Francisco | Game Four, NLCS | 7:57pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Phillies: Joe Blanton
175.2 IP, 6.87 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, .331 BABIP, 41.9% GB, 12.2% HR/FB, 4.06 xFIP, 1.9 WAR

Giants: Madison Bumgarner
111.0 IP, 6.97 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, .322 BABIP, 45.1% GB, 8.1% HR/FB, 4.03 xFIP, 2.0 WAR

Notes
While I typically attempt, at all costs, to avoid learning, it occurs to me that, looking at Blanton’s and Bumgarner’s season lines in relief, one is absolutely forced to comprehend the baleful effects of the Fly Ball on a pitcher’s fortunes. For, while Blanton struck out and walked batters at a rate almost identical to Bumgarner — and conceded fly balls on 38.7% of balls in play, versus Bumgarner’s rate of 38.0% — he ended the season with an ERA exactly 1.82 points higher than Bumgarner (4.82 versus 3.00).

Indeed, the only real difference between these pitchers — besides their handedness and respective waistlines — is what happened to the balls once they got in the air. For Bumgarner, about eight percent of them became home runs; Blanton conceded that many, plus half again.

To what do we owe this difference? Well, we can’t ignore the pitchers’ respective ballparks. Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank certainly has a reputation for allowing dongers, while the Giants’ home park is, anecdotally speaking, known as either average or slightly below in this regard. Still, per Dan Turkenkopf’s four-year weighted HR/FB park factors, Citizens Bank Park actually supresses homers, producing a park factor of 94. San Francisco’s AT&T Park, on the other hand, has a 95*.

*Note: numbers are for 2006-09.

Another thing to consider is the type of balls that are being hit in the air. For, while grounders are relatively easy to classify, the difference between a fly ball and line drive is slightly more mysterious. (As I’ve almost definitely mentioned in these pages, we members of Team FanGraphs who were lucky enough to attend spring training had endless hours of fun attempting to identify batted-ball types).

In fact, we do see that Bumgarner induced more grounders per batted-ball than Blanton. It follows, of course, that Blanton allowed more balls in the air. How many? Well, in his 175.2 IP, Blanton conceded 221 fly balls and 111 line drives, for a total of 332 balls in air (BIA), or approximately 17 for every nine innings. Bumgarner, on the other hand, allowed 135 flies and 60 line drives, for a total of 195 BIA, or 15.8 every nine innings.

Does that make things any different? Sort of, but not by much. Blanton, with his 27 homers-allowed, still allowed a home run on 8.1% of his BIA; for Bumgarner that number was only 5.6%.

Ultimately, we’re forced to concede that Blanton’s relative susceptibility to the home run is inexplicable. It could be the home park; it could be the types of batted-balls he’s allowing; it could be random variation. It’s very likely, all three things, plus some other factors beyond these that we (read: I, Carson Cistulli) are failing to consider.

The notable thing, so far as this game is concerned, is how similar these pitchers have performed and how different have been their results. Do we regard Bumgarner as “better” because he’s managed to suppress about five home runs that Blanton would’ve allowed in the same numbers of innings? Do we regard Blanton as “worse” because those same fly balls have left the park on his watch? Were you a manager, who would you rather have pitch for you tonight? From what we know, the answer should be “either,” but I don’t know if that’s the case.

How’s about we find out, huh? Below, reader, you’ll find a poll whose question essentially amounts to a Zen koan. Bring it.

For the first time since 2007 the Yankees face an elimination game in the postseason. They were able to stay alive one more day in that series, no thanks to a gimpy Roger Clemens, but ended up losing the next game. This year the task is a bit greater. In 2007 they were down two games to none in the ALDS, with two home games before a potential return trip to Cleveland. This year they have one more game at home before potentially returning to Texas. Even if they do win the next two, they have a return date with Cliff Lee waiting for them on Saturday.

Today, though, they’ll send their ace to the mound. CC Sabathia has been a bit shaky in his first two 2010 postseason starts, though he has a ready-made excuse. His start on October 15th was his second in 17 days, which constitutes far more rest than he gets during the regular season; the Yankees even lined him up on fairly regular rest after the All-Star Break. But today, October 20th, he’s on his normal four days’ rest. Everything is in order and his team’s season is on the line. There are no excuses.

C.J. Wilson pitched well through seven innings last time, allowing just four hits and walking two. But instead of turning to his setup crew, Ron Washington sent out Wilson, who had thrown under 100 pitches, for the eighth. He and the next three relievers failed to record an out. By the time Derek Holland finally got the first one the Yankees had already taken the lead. Wilson did avoid walking too many hitters, which helped him hold down the Yankees through seven. This time perhaps his bullpen will better support him.

We don’t have stats that measure momentum; we don’t have stats that capture a team’s confidence. We don’t, in short, have stats that offer any insight into any single game. We can use our numbers to set expectations, and in that way we should expect a quality game this afternoon. But in the postseason, with emotions at a season high, it’s tough to expect anything. The Yankees’ offense could rebound. It could bomb. Wilson could go back to walking too many guys and allow five runs. He could repeat his Game 1 performance. It’s frustrating from an analytical standpoint, but it’s true.

The real preview for Game 5: watch it and enjoy it. No amount of analysis can prepare you for what you’re going to see.