NLCS Game Four Review: Philadelphia
First off, given some of the howling on twitter, it’s time for the obligatory strike zone plot. Let’s get it out of the way, thanks to Brooks Baseball.
It’s pretty ugly, but consistent enough. It was four or five inches too wide, or a half a foot if you count both sides. But there are plenty of triangles and squares out there beyond the box, so let’s not blame it all on umpire Wally Bell.
For all the talk of how similar Madison Bumgarner and Joe Blanton were going into the game, it’s somewhat prescient that they both failed to get out of the fifth inning and that they both left having given up three earned runs. On the other hand, the journey was not necessarily so similar. Bumgarner does use his left hand, and he did strike out six and allow only one run to score while he was on the bump, while Blanton struck out three and was directly responsible for all of his runs. It wasn’t all bad for Blanton – all of his balls in play were counted as groundballs – but it since the starters played to a standstill on the scoreboard, the advantage goes to the hometown pitcher.
Phillies fans can’t even blame the randomness of coming through in high leverage moments in this one – there were eight moments with a leverage index over one last night. The Phillies batters came through in two of them, and the Giants batters came through in two of them. It may seem that the Giants were more ‘clutch,’ but that would probably just be because they came up last. To the home-fielders went the spoils.
At this point, some of the blame must rest squarely on the Phillies’ stars. In this game, Chase Utley put up a -10.8% in win probability by going one for five and not coming through in some key moments. That comes on the heels of a -12% in game three (0-for-4), +3.8% in game two (0-for-3 with two walks), and a -1.8% in game one (1-for-3 with a walk). It’s obviously just a poor four-game stretch for a great secondbaseman, but it’s also bad timing for that stretch. The same could be said for Jimmy Rollins (.267, 1 extra base hit) and Jayson Werth (.250, 1 extra base hit).
The larger pattern is one of struggles for all of the left-handers on the team. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, the recently benched Raul Ibanez, and young Domonic Brown are a combined 7-for-39 with 7 walks and 3 extra-base hits, and most of that is Howard’s production. Maybe it’s not a surprise given the left arms of Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, but Javier Lopez looms as a large acquisition for the Giants in this series. He has three big holds and gave up his first run Wednesday night. His lefty sidearm release has been hard on the lefty batters, and that makes sense given the difference in release points vis-a-vis a regular right-hander.
All this said, it was a great game. The WPA graph does a good job showing the rollercoaster that was Wednesday night. Fans of baseball were satisfied, if not fans of Phillie baseball.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Really terrible strike zone last night, all around.
That’s at least three of the four games in this series, if I’m recalling correctly. I’ve only got KNBR (Giants announcers) and Fox feed via MLB.postseason, so I don’t get replays, but the announcers certainly have griped about the first, second, and fourth game umps.
This series is confirming what I’ve felt since his call up. I love Posey!
Stupid Posey was great last night. I was also going nuts in the 6th watching Durbin pitching to three straight LH and/or LHB-dominant hitters, starting with Sandoval
If there was 1 team I could pick down 3-1 to have the best subjective chance to come back vs any opponent, it would be the Phillies with their SP set up. It’s still objectively a long shot but much, much stranger things have happened
Wait, the Phillies aren’t automatically getting the World Series trophy this year? All their fans came on here and told me that their old lineup and shoddy bullpen had no impact? That the aura and mystique of the Phillies was above sabermetrics? That the great Charlie Manuel had the pulse of the team in his hands and his head-scratching managerial moves had no impact?
I think several Phillies fan morons owe Dave Cameron and several others here a big apology.
I didn’t realize the series was over.
so does cameron owe people an apology when he’s wrong too? it’s a prediction what does it matter what he thinks compared to what other people think. it’s an opinion and everyone is entitled to it. the series isn’t over and you want people to crow already? Also nice strawman
The problem is Phillies fans came on here (and other places) and acted like their team somehow defied all statistical analysis that pegged them as a mediocre offensive team, when in fact I think they are who we thought they were. Nice little team with 3 good SPs…other than that…I fail to see how people thought they were a shoo-in for the World Series. Good luck with Raul Ibanez in LF and a green Domonic Brown in RF next year.
And the series is over…they are not beating Lincecum/Sanchez/Cain in 3 straight.
all cameron ever said was that the wOBA for the phillies was not as good as the reds, and that to say they are the “clear betting” favorites was wrong. the only problem with that is, for one the wOBA included players in the lineup for the team that were not going to have any at bats in the playoffs such as wilson valdez(.294). I think dave’s point was that their offense was overrated(which it certainly was, injuries or not) and not the best in the league.
you are underrating the team to say it’s a “nice little team that has 3 good SP”, the team won the most games in all of MLB this year. Here is the injury time lost in dollar form: http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/7945/injurygraph.jpg . if anything it seems like you are just trying to be a contrarian.
what’s wrong with fans coming to a website to write about how good they think their team is even if it’s for the wrong reasons?
“what’s wrong with fans coming to a website to write about how good they think their team is even if it’s for the wrong reasons?”
Nothing at all. Except that’s not what happened.
The problem is when obnoxious people come in and start the name-calling because Cameron didn’t predict the Phillies would go undefeated or some other stupid shit.
Richie, I dare say you might be gloating. It’s unbecoming.
Aura and mystique aside, properly applied analytics still thinks the Phillies are the better team, honestly that’s pretty close to a fact, but the margin is thin enough where it’s not worth getting all miffed about it. It’s only a handful of % per 7 game series. I think the Phillies comments worth reading mostly complained that Dave did not properly apply the analytics, mainly in regards to the lineup as sean notes and with the leveraging of the bullpen.
Giants fans are equally guilty here. It’s a natural progression from fan -> outlandish statement. The goal (at least here) is to see past that.
For the record, the Phillies odds have dwindled to about 13.5% which seems to support Mr Eisen’s comment.
By the way, in all fairness to Dave, it may be that he did properly adjust the lineup and bullpen at some later point. I only recall his initial comments about the Reds series which did not make such an adjustment. I only recall that because the piece came right on the heels of Matt Klaussen warning everyone about the dangers of using seasonal data to discuss playoff matchups. It struck me as queer that the post wasn’t accompanied by a google group memo warning all the writers…
And it’s not like Dave was the sole offender. You have a draw a line in the sand somewhere. To adjust that you either have to do a decent amount of heavy lifting or introduce your opinion. Dave probably just decided neither option looked attractive.
sean: Going by total salary lost is a bit disingenous. Sure, the Phillies lost $19.2 million to injuries, which is a huge dollar amount. But their payroll is likewise huge. The total amount is still less than the amount the As lost to injuries at $23 million and the As total payroll was $58.3 mil. Calculated out, the Phillies lost 14% of their salary while the As lost 40%. Heck, the Giants lost 14% of their total salary to injury. Every team’s WAR and (probably to a lesser extent wOBA) get affected by injuries, not just the Phils.
note: all but the Phillies’ numbers were calculated using Cot’s Contracts and the nice little FanGraphs injury spreadsheet here: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApDc5PGsBzgVdDVhcEM5RTB2OUU3R1h0cmR1ZUJRTXc&hl=en
I think several Phillies fan morons owe Dave Cameron and several others here a big apology.
Because I am sure that Dave would agree that 3 bad games validates or invalidates anything he said about a team.
dave has never admitted it when he’s been wrong on this site
It’s good to see that Ryan Howard, even after supposedly losing a bunch of weight, still can’t move 3 feet to his left to get to a ground ball.
Err, to his right. /slaps self
point to that play for all the people that say “ryan howard’s defense has improved” or “he’s an average first baseman defensively”
I point to Bengie Molina’s stolen base for all the people who say “Bengie Molina runs slower than my grandma” and “Bengie Molina seems to run backwards in time”.
Uh-oh… someone made a stinkee in his diapee.
One thing to mention- Posey’s third inning “ball in play” off Blanton was definitely not a ground ball
That’s true. Stupid Yahoo box score. Maybe they don’t count liners in those box scores? It said 10 groundballs to 0 flyballs.
No, they only count flies and grounders, no liners.
And I believe it’s only outs, not hits.
Check to see if it said 10 ground outs or 10 ground ball outs and not just 10 ground balls.
“And the series is over…they are not beating Lincecum/Sanchez/Cain in 3 straight.”
One down, Rich…I love the way you answer illogic with illogic and bluster with bluster.