Let’s just put this to a vote. Of the three historically awesome pitching performances we’ve seen so far, which was the best?

Previous reviews: MIN/NYY

Let’s jump right in.

Best Games

5. Shane Victorino, Game 1
2-4, 2B, R, 2 RBI, SB, +.171 WPA

Victornio doubled and scored the Phillies first run of Edinson Volquez in the first inning and had a bases loaded single in the second to give the Phillies a 4-0 lead and an 87% win expectancy.

4. Jayson Werth, Game 2
2-4, 2 R, RBI, SB, BB, +.178 WPA

Werth was also part of the three run seventh, reaching on a fielder’s choice to third. He also had a walk, stolen base, and a run scored in the sixth and singled home an insurance run in the eighth.

3. Chase Utley, Game 2
2-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB, HBP, +.190 WPA

Utley had a 2 RBI bases loaded single in the bottom of the fifth to bring the Phillies within within two runs. Later, he was hit by a pitch to lead off the three run seventh which would give Philadelphia the game.

2. Roy Halladay, Game 1
9 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 8 K, 1 BB, +.323 WPA

Having the no-hitter at number two certainly seems off. It’s more easily explained when it can be complained to number one:

1. Cole Hamels, Game 3
9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 9 K, 0 BB, +.608 WPA

In the eyes of WPA, these starts are both effectively the same: neither Halladay nor Hamels gave up a run, which is really what matters when it comes to winning games. Throw in the fact that the Phillies scored four runs behind Halladay and only put up two behind Hamels, and it’s pretty clear that Hamels throwing a complete game shutout was more important to the Phillies’ chances of winning than Halladay throwing a complete game shutout.

Obviously, Roy Halladay’s start was special, but it was special in a way not measured by WPA.

Worst Games

5. Placido Polanco, Game 2
0-5, -.145 WPA

Polanco couldn’t do anything against Bronson Arroyo nor the Reds’ relievers. The worst of his at-bats was a bases loaded groundout to end the fourth inning, leaving the Phillies down by one and stranding all three runners.

4. Roy Oswalt, Game 2
5 IP, 4 R, 3 ER, 5 K, BB, -.152 WPA

Oswalt didn’t pitch poorly, but all four of the runs he allowed were rendered even more costly by the fact that the Phillies offense couldn’t plate a run in the first five innings. When Oswalt left in the 5th inning, the Phillies win expectancy was all the way down to 12.5%.

3. Joey Votto, Game 3
0-4, K, GIDP, -.224 WPA

Pretty much the entire Reds team was flustered by Cole Hamels in Game 3, but Votto failed in one of the most important situations for the Reds. With the team down 1-0 in the bottom of the ninth, Votto grounded into a double play for a -.161 WPA, lowering the Reds win expectancy to 1.4% in what would be their final game.

2. Edinson Volquez, Game 1
1.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, -.267 WPA

Volquez imploded, throwing a ton of pitches without any results. He gave up four runs right out of the gate, setting up the Phillies and Roy Halladay for a historic NLDS game 1.

1. Aroldis Chapman, Game 2
.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 0 ER, K, -.506 WPA

Here we see one of the flaws with our implementation of WPA – with the data available to us, it’s essentially impossible to integrate defense into WPA. The big play in Chapman’s outing in game 2 was the line drive by Jimmy Rollins which found its way past Jay Bruce. Now, Rollins hit the ball hard and deserves some credit for that, but Chapman also did his job in the sense that the ball was well within the range of one of his fielders. Still, there’s no denying that the Phillies scored three runs off Chapman in a late and close game situation, and for that Chapman takes the big blow according to WPA.

Best Series
Hitter: Chase Utley, +.260 WPA
3-11, HR, 3 R, 4 RBI

This wasn’t much of a series for hitters, and so we see somebody who made nine outs in 13 plate appearances take home the overall WPA crown for the series. Utley made it count when he reached and when he put the ball in play.

PITCHER: Cole Hamels, +.608 WPA
9 IP, 0 ER, 9 K

See above.

Worst Series
Hitter: Joey Votto, -.237 WPA
1-10, RBI

Simply an atrocious series for the likely NL MVP. Much of this came from that final game in which he was completely stymied by Hamels, but he couldn’t exactly put a game together against Halladay or Oswalt either.

Pitcher: Aroldis Chapman, -.490 WPA

See above; this comes from the poor (and unlucky) game 2 outing and a meaningless 1 IP outing in game 3.

Notables
Brandon Phillips: +.111, Top Cincinnati hitter
Bronson Arroyo: +.116, Top Cincinnati pitcher
Ryan Howard: -.074
Jimmy Rollins: +.156

Game Graphs:
Game 1
Game 2
Game 3

Bryan Smith will be around to talk about the playoffs tonight, starting at 5 pm.

Base Running

The Rangers exhibit and take pride in being aggressive when running the bases. They have had good results so far in the post season. Tonight though, they may have to calm it down a bit since Andy Pettitte is on the mound. Andy has a great pick off move and does a great job of keeping runners near first base. With runs possibly being at a premium tonight, none of the Ranger base runners can pull a “Kinsler” and get picked off of first base.

The Rangers don’t have to shut down their running game. They can be aggressive once the ball is in play or even look at stealing third base against Jorge Posada. They just can’t afford to give away any outs at first base tonight.

Cliff Lee May

Cliff Lee has been throwing lights out so far this post season. He will not maintain this complete dominance throughout the entire post season (see Roy Halladay). He may come down to earth, regress a little and allow some crazy number of runs like three or four. The Rangers should be looking to add runs whenever they can. They can’t expect him to be as lights out as he was against Tampa, especially against the Yankees lineup.

Robinson Cano ….

… is a very good hitter. I followed the Royals during the regular season, which means I only get a heavy dose of the AL Central players. I am impressed with Cano.

Rangers Bullpen

So far this LCS, the Rangers have used Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Darren O’Day, Alexi Ogando, Darren Oliver and Clay Rapada in relief. During the regular season, these six pitchers average 0.31 BB/IP and 0.97 K/IP. During the LCS, the six have maintained a similar strikeout rate of 0.94 K/IP, but their walk rate has almost quadrupled to 1.13 BB/IP. Though this is a small sample size, the bullpen can’t keep giving up over one walk per inning and expect to hold the Yankees scoreless. As seen in game one, the Yankees are too good to give them one or more free base runners in an inning.

Earlier in the year, I did a retrospective piece on Dave Cameron’s theory that older players were becoming undervalued in the market. Here’s what Dave wrote at the time:

Abreu was a bargain on a one year, $5 million deal with the Angels, even as he proved that he didn’t really belong in the outfield anymore. Damon, though, is basically the same hitter, just with better defensive skills, and he might have to settle for less than what Abreu got? This is a market correction gone way too far.

Last time, I looked at players at the end of June. The analysis may have been a bit premature, so let’s use the entire season’s worth of data at the same group of veterans.

LF Johnny Damon
Free agent age: 36
Signed by Detroit Tigers to 1 year, $8 million deal
2009 WAR: 3.3
2010 WAR: 1.9

Damon took a huge hit in value this year by DHing a majority of the time and only playing centerfield in four games. UZR thought he was above average for the limited time he played in the outfield, but the decline in offense couldn’t be overcome. Damon went from a .376 wOBA last year to just a .340 mark this year, and a miserable August in which Johnny had a .266 wOBA was damning. Still, a 1.9 WAR translated to $7.5 million in value, so the Tigers didn’t suffer that much in the deal.

2B Orlando Hudson
Free agent age: 32
Signed by Minnesota Twins to 1 year, $5 million deal
2009 WAR: 2.9
2010 WAR: 3.1

Nobody ever believes this guy is going to be good, but the O-Dog always has the ability to put up solid numbers and play good defense. The Twins got a steal for signing Hudson to a cheap deal which he’d equal in value easily by the All-Star break. Hudson’s .320 wOBA was low for him, but UZR and DRS both loved his defense.

OF/DH Vladimir Guerrero
Free agent age: 35
Signed by Texas Rangers to 1 year, $5 million deal
2009 WAR: 0.8
2010 WAR: 2.6

If you put Vladimir Guerrero in the Ballpark in Arlington during the hot Texas summer, good things will happen. Although Vlad teetered after an insanely hot start, he still finished with a very solid .360 wOBA, primarily playing DH. His value via WAR translates to $10.3 million, so the Rangers got more than 2:1 on their money for Guerrero.

1B Aubrey Huff
Free agent age: 33
Signed by San Francisco Giants to 1 year, $3 million deal
2009 WAR: -1.3
2010 WAR: 5.7

What more can be said? A 7.1 swing in WAR from one season to another is just downright scary for a multitude of reasons. However, while Orioles and Tigers fans may be shouting ‘What gives,’ Giants fans are just happy that the rejuvenation came by the bay area. Huff put up a .388 wOBA while playing in 157 games this year, pacing the San Fran offense. Also, he had a good year defensively with a 6.7 UZR, his first year with a positive UZR since 2004.

3B Miguel Tejada
Free agent age: 36
Signed by Baltimore Orioles to 1 year deal worth $6 million
2009 WAR: 2.7 WAR
2010 WAR: 1.3 WAR

Just like with Huff it seems that only the Orioles can complain about this deal. Tejada was terrible in Baltimore, putting up a .295 wOBA and a UZR of -6.5, adding up to only -0.1 WAR thanks to the favorable positional adjustment because he’s at shortstop. However, Tejada was much better when traded to San Diego. He put up 1.4 WAR in just 59 games due to a .268/.317/.413 slash line and a UZR much closer to zero. His value for the year translated to $5.3 million, so this was another slight loss.

1B Russell Branyan
Free agent age: 34
Signed by Cleveland Indians to 1 year deal worth $2 million
2009 WAR: 2.8
2010 WAR: 2.0

It was pretty obvious that the Indians were getting a steal for signing Branyan for only $2 million after he hit thirty-one homers last season, and a steal it was. Branyan put up 1.1 WAR for Cleveland in just 52 games before Mark Shapiro was able to swap him for some Seattle prospects. Branyan hit .215/.319/.483 for the Mariners, giving the lineup some much-needed pop, but not enough on-base ability. Branyan finished at just 0.9 WAR in Seattle in 57 games.

Starting pitching has not been kind to the Yankees in this series’ first two games. The Yankees offense let CC Sabathia off the hook by mounting an eighth-inning comeback, but they had no such luck with Phil Hughes on the mound. The offense went 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position, including 0 for 5 as they tried to mount a comeback in the later innings. Tonight they’ll turn to their longest tenured starter, Andy Pettitte, for a victory in Game 3.

Pettitte has a longer postseason resume than any other active pitcher, and has pitched more postseason innings than the entire Rangers roster combined. Throughout that 256-inning history Pettitte has had his ups and downs, but ever since he underwent reconstructive elbow surgery in 2004 he has been lights out. In 11 starts he has thrown 69.1 innings (6.1 IP/start) and has allowed 26 runs on 50 strikeouts and 20 walks. In only two instances has he allowed more than three runs. This stands in contrast to his earlier postseason record, which was littered with bombs and brilliance rather than steady, solid performances.

The current Rangers roster has hit Pettitte well, a .308/.373/.462 line in 162 PA. That lineup also hits finesse and average pitchers better than power pitchers, and hits average flyball/groundball guys better as well. None of those bodes well for Pettitte. None of it is particularly predictive — as we saw on Saturday, sometimes pitchers will fare well against hitters who would normally hit them. But if Yankees fans are keeping a Concerned Meter, the dial has to be turned up to a decent degree. That could go up a bit after we look at the Rangers’ starters career numbers against left-handed pitching.

Elvis Andrus: .318 wOBA
Michael Young: .363
Josh Hamilton: .410
Vladimir Guerrero: .413
Nelson Cruz: .339
Ian Kinsler: .389
Jeff Francoeur : .346
Bengie Molina: .353
Jorge Cantu: .330

Some of these numbers don’t necessarily reflect current talent levels — Cruz appears a bit low while Molina is way high — but they still don’t look encouraging. The Rangers have hit left-handed pitching well. The saving grace for the Yankees is that fly balls tend to die out in left-center.

The current Yankees hitters have faced Cliff Lee 308 times in the regular season and have hit him decently well, .280/.329/.482, which is quite a bit better than Lee’s career line of .260/.307/.405. There are, of course, two different Cliff Lees. After his 2007 demotion to the minors he turned things around and become one of the game’s most dominant pitchers. You can read about the full New York – Cliff Lee history on River Ave. Blues.

While anything can happen in any given game, the match-ups in this one appear to favor Texas. The one thing the Yankees have on their side is experience, and we don’t know what that counts for, if it counts for anything at all. But for eight of the 10 starters tonight, it’s the first postseason trip to Yankee Stadium. The Rangers have to be thankful that the one of the three that has been there is Cliff Lee.

When faced with a tough decision that seemingly had no great answers, Joe Girardi has decided to go with AJ Burnett as the Game 4 starting pitcher, whether the Yankees win or lose tonight against Cliff Lee.

The most popular alternative was to have CC Sabahtia pitch on short rest, taking Game 1, 4, and 7, but that wouldn’t have eliminated the need to have Burnett start unless they also asked Hughes and Petitte to pitch on short rest as well, and there are some legitimate problems with that. Hughes has never pitched on three days rest, and Pettitte has a pretty long list of arm problems in his background. Getting potentially reduced performance by both, not even factoring in Sabathia’s two starts on short rest, makes that idea unappetizing.

There are other options, however, and I’m a little bit surprised that they didn’t give those much consideration before settling on Burnett as the Game 4 starter.

Option 1 – Bullpen Game

Perhaps they’ll have a short enough leash with Burnett that this will end up being the final result anyway, but the bullpen game is an underutilized idea in the playoffs. Despite being inferior in talent level, relievers outperform starting pitchers because it is simply easier to get outs when only being asked to pitch one or two innings.

You could piece together a complete game using Dustin Moseley, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Kerry Wood, and Mariano Rivera, splitting up the innings so that no one throws more than 30-40 pitches and you get as many platoon advantages as you can. If the early game relievers get bombed and the game gets out of hand, you can just use Sergio Mitre to soak up the end-game innings and save your setup guys for Game 5.

Yes, you’d end up working your bullpen pretty hard and wouldn’t be in the best of shape for Game 5, but you have Sabathia going the next day and can expect him to pitch at least six innings and hope for seven or eight.

Option 2 – Start Burnett in Game 3

This essentially boils down to match-ups and attempting to leverage the most winnable games. With Cliff Lee going tonight, the Yankees are going to be underdogs no matter who takes the hill. They could have chosen to start Burnett against Lee in Game 3, lowering their chances of winning a game where they are already likely to lose, and then using Pettitte in Game 4. Rather than having a disadvantage on the mound in both Game 3 and Game 4, they could have consolidated their problems in tonight’s game in order to increase their odds of winning tomorrow’s.

The problem with this strategy is that the Game 3 starter is then on track to start Game 7, and they clearly don’t want Burnett pitching twice in the ALCS. They’d have to bring Pettitte back on short rest for Game 7, which is still not a great option. But with three days off after the ALCS ends before the start of the World Series, they’d theoretically have all hands on deck for that final game. Sabathia could be available for a couple of innings, as it would be his normal throw day, and they could simply ask Pettitte to throw fewer pitchers to compensate for the reduced rest.

I’m not sure that either of these options are clearly better than keeping everyone on their normal workloads and starting Burnett tomorrow night, but there are arguments to be made for considering them. If Burnett blows up and the Yankees find themselves down 3-1 on Wednesday, expect that decision to be the one that get second guessed all winter.

In what is shaping up to be a busy offseason, with rumors swirling about Hiroyuki Nakajima and Yu Darvish, the one confirmed posting we have is for Rakuten ace Hisashi Iwakuma. RJ Anderson called Iwakuma “Andre 3000” during the 2009 WBC, and I said he was Japan’s second best pitching prospect in August. Now that we know he’s coming over, I’ll take a little bit of a deeper dive into what he brings to the table.

Iwakuma’s best skill has been controlling the home run ball. His best performance came in his Sawamura Award season of 2008, when he allowed a mere three homers in 201.2 innings for a 0.13 HR/9IP rate. After a more pedestrian 15 bombs in 169 innings last year, he bounced back in 2010, keeping the ball in the yard all but 11 times in 201 innings pitching, good for a 0.40 HR/9IP figure. It caught my eye that nine of his 11 homers allowed in 2010 came in his home stadium, Kleenex Stadium Miyagi, where he threw 118.2 innings. But that looks like an aberration, as I couldn’t find any real evidence of that kind of a home/road split among his teammates. Still, if Iwakuma winds up in a pitcher-friendly home stadium, that could offset the reality that he will face many more players capable of hitting home runs in MLB.

Iwakuma’s out pitch is his forkball, and his MLB success will be predicated on how well it survives the trip across the Pacific. Here’s some basic data on what he threw in 2010:

Notes about this data: groundball and flyball data includes hits, shuuto is a cousin of the two-seam fastball, we usually call “forkballs” “split-finger fastballs” in the US.

Before pulling this data, I knew Iwakuma’s forkball was good, but I didn’t realize it was that good. 37.2% of the times he threw it, he got either a swinging strike or a groundball. The groudball figure includes 28 hits, but that’s still pretty impressive.

Here’s a look at his called strikes:

Some of those fastballs and sliders that handcuffed NPB hitters are going to get hit in MLB, and some of those forkballs in the dirt aren’t going to get chased. But the data shows that Iwakuma can get all five of his pitches over the plate, including his seldom-used cutter.

Now the risk: it’s reasonable to expect a drop in effectiveness and/or command from some or all of Iwakuma’s pitches. I don’t think there is any good way to predict which of of Iwakuma’s pitches could suffer, but Hiroki Kuroda and Daisuke Matsuzaka have notably struggled with their forkballs in MLB. Iwakuma will need to buck that trend to approach the level of effectiveness he experienced in Japan.

The other, more generic question mark also applies: can he withstand the more demanding MLB schedule? He’s thrown 200 innings in two of the last three years, but he’ll have to adjust to starting every fifth day instead of once a week, pitching to better competition and a more demanding travel schedule. In 2010, Iwakuma averaged 107.61 pitches per game, so his workload on a per-game basis was not out of line with MLB norms. I think that will work in his favor.

I’ve been asked a couple times already how much I think his posting fee will be, and how much it will take to sign him. Iwakuma carries some risk, but overall I would put his upside in the mid-rotation starter range. I think there is a lot of variability in how MLB teams will evaluate him, so I’ll put the over/under for his posting fee at $10m, and his contract at four years, $20m.

With the League Championship Series already in full swing for both leagues, last week’s Divisional Series may already be an afterthought. Luckily, we’re here to refresh your memory with a WPA review of all of the series, with the bests, the worsts, and some other notables.

WPA is the ultimate story statistic, taking into account every bit of context about the game as it can. You can check out our glossary entry on WPA here as well as the ever excellent Saber Library’s take here.

Best Games
5. Danny Valencia, Game 1
1-3, BB, RBI, +.219 WPA

Not a terribly impressive line, but context is everything. Valencia struck out swinging twice, but with bases empty and at least one out each time, none mattered much. His walk in the sixth tied the game, and his single in the eighth brought the go-ahead run to the plate with only one out.

4. Mariano Rivera, Game 1
1.1 IP, H, SV, +.237

If there’s ever a time to go to the ace reliever, it was when Joe Girardi went to Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the eighth in Game 1. Rivera entered with a two run lead and two outs but with two runners in scoring position. The Leverage Index sat at a whopping 4.25, and Rivera easily shut the door, retiring four of his five batters faced (including a questionable call on a Delmon Young single).

3. Mark Teixeira, Game 1
2-5, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, +.274 WPA

Teixeira had the big blow in the initial game, as his two-run tiebreaking home run in the 7th inning turned out to be the difference. That home run gave the Yankees a 78.5% win expectancy, and the bullpen did the rest.

2. Lance Berkman, Game 2
2-4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, +.292 WPA

Berkman gave the Yankees the lead on two separate occasions, breaking an early 1-1 tie with a solo HR (+.135) and putting the Yankees up for good in the 7th with an RBI double (+.192), with the latter giving the Yankees a 75% win expectancy late in the game.

1. Phil Hughes, Game 3
7 IP, 0 R, 6 K, 1 BB, +.294 WPA

Hughes put up the best pitching performance in the series, shutting out the Twins as counterpart Brian Duensing gave up the runs which would allow the Yankees to clinch the series.

Worst Games
5. Brian Duensing, Game 3
3.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 K, 1 BB, -.182 WPA

Duensing got hit around by the Yankees, including a homer off the bat of Marcus Thames which effectively ended the Twins hopes. When Duensing exited, the Twins win expectancy was a mere 9.6%

4. Nick Swisher, Game 2
1-4, 0 R, 0 RBI,

Seems like a relatively neutral game for Swisher, but he was unclutch in game 2. He grounded into a double play to end the fourth in a tie game (-.138) and grounded out to end a threat up by two runs in the sixth (-.059).

3. Francisco Liriano, Game 1
5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 7 K, 3 BB, -.225 WPA

Liriano pitched extremely well for the first five innings, but couldn’t carry it through the sixth. The Yankees tallied four runs in that fateful inning, knocking the Twins win expectancy from 85.1% down to 36.5% by the time Liriano was pulled from the game.

2. Carl Pavano, Game 2
6 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, -.264 WPA

Pavano didn’t actually pitch that terribly, but like Liriano and Duensing, the Yankees got plenty of hits off of him and that was enough to give them a lead. The Twins offense didn’t give either of their starters any leeway, and as a result they look like goats here.

1. Jesse Crain, Game 1
0.1 IP, HR, 2 R, -.303 WPA

Crain gave up the Teixeira home run which ended up deciding game 1, which turned out to be the single biggest pitch of the series. This was Crain’s only appearance in the ALDS, and as such he compiled the lowest WPA of any player despite only being involved in four plate appearances.

Best Overall Series

Hitter: Curtis Granderson
5-11, 2B, 3B, 2 R, 3 RBI, +.310 WPA

Granderson was Mr. Clutch for the Yankees. He plated the tying run in the 5th inning of game 1 with a triple worth +.298 WPA and also had a double and scored a run to start the scoring in Game 2.

Pitcher: Mariano Rivera:
3.1 IP, 2 H, 1 K, 0 R, 2 SV, +.293 WPA

The big game for Rivera was, as mentioned above, in Game 1, and he had relatively inconsequential appearances in game 2 (a three run save) and game 3. In true Rivera fashion, he did not allow a run in the series, shattering bats as he worked.

Worst Series

Hitter: Nick Swisher
4-13, 2B, HR, 3 R, RBI, -.257 WPA

That hardly looks like a bad line, but Swisher was bad in big spots, like the plays mentioned above, and was good in meaningless spots. His HR came up 6-0 and the double came with nobody on and two men out with the lead already in hand.

Pitcher: Jesse Crain
0.1 IP, HR, 2 R, -.303 WPA

See above.

Notables

Yankees:
CC Sabathia: -.179 WPA in game 1
Derek Jeter: -.005 WPA in series
Alex Rodriguez: -.093 WPA in series

Twins:
All three starters in bottom 5 single-game WPA
Denard Span: worst Twin hitter, -.213 WPA
Jon Rauch: best Twin pitcher, +.127 WPA
Joe Mauer: -.060 WPA in series, best WPA score of +.017
Jim Thome: -.110 WPA in series, no positive WPA games.

Links to all game pages:
Game 1
Game 2
Game 3

These game notes are offered with supreme humility.

San Francisco at Philadelphia | 8:19pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Giants: Jonathan Sanchez
193.1 IP, 9.54 K/9, 4.47 BB/9, .262 BABIP, 41.5% GB, 9.8% HR/FB, 4.11 xFIP, 2.6 WAR

Phillies: Roy Oswalt
211.2 IP, 8.21 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, .261 BABIP, 45.7% GB, 9.1% HR/FB, 3.45 xFIP, 4.7 WAR

The Phils Against Sanchez
According to Matt Becker’s game preview, Giant coach Bruce Bochy has shuffled his starting rotation, purposely pushing up Jonathan Sanchez to tonight’s Game Two in Philadelphia.

Becker writes: “One of the reasons Bochy decided for the change is because Sanchez was stellar in his two regular-season starts against the Phillies this year.”

So, some notes on that statement:

1. Obviously, the reference to “two regular-season starts” sets off the Small Sample Size Alarm in the baseballing nerd’s heart. It’s very probable that Sanchez’s season (and career) numbers — and the Phillies’ team platoon split — can tell us more about tonight’s match-up than two isolated starts this season.

2. As for Philadelphia’s lefty-righty platoon split, here’s what we get: per Baseball Reference, they recorded a 111 OPS+ versus lefties (relative to other teams versus lefties) as opposed to just a 102 OPS+ versus righties. Broadly speaking, the Phillies are probably better versus lefties than righties.

3. Even though Sanchez conceded only 2 ER in those 2 GS versus Philadelphia this season (the first at San Francisco on April 26, the second at Philadelphia on August 19), he didn’t actually pitch all that well. In 13 IP, his K:BB was 13:7, and of the 31 BIP, only 10 of them were grounders. If we figure Sanchez’s xFIP over those two starts, we get something like 4.60 or thereabouts.

The Giants, Oswalt, and Homers
Among National League teams, the Giants had the most homers in September (and October): 39 in 1048 PAs. They also had the NL’s highest HR/FB rate at 12.6%. Buster Posey had eight of the homers; Juan Uribe, seven; Pat Burrell, six; Freddy Sanchez, four; and Aubrey Huff, four. All are likely to start tonight.

Curiously, after coming to Philadelphia, Roy Oswalt saw his groundball rate increase to a level unseen since his 2008 season. After getting grounders on only 43.0% of balls in play with Houston this season — and 43.3% last year — Oswalt saw that number jump to 50.2% in his 12 starts with the Phillies.

There are obvious, and predictable, caveats here: 12 starts isn’t very many, and ground balls are prone to bias. BUT, it’s also possible that what we see here is Oswalt attempting to adjust to his new, more homer-friendly home park.

If I Had My Druthers
• Andres Torres and Chase Utley would spiral into a Handsome Vortex.
• Kool Keith would write an album of the same name.
• Handsome Vortex, that is.