Ricky Nolasco was headed into this third arbitration season after achieving Super 2 status in 2009. That is no longer his concern after inking a three-year contract with the Florida Marlins. Per MLB.com, the terms of the deal call for $6 million in 2011, $9 million for ’12 and $11.5 million for ’13. There is also an innings bonus of up to a half million per season.

He was under team control for 2011 and 2012 before being free agent eligible. The general model is that arbitration-eligible players are expected to earn around 40% of their free agent market value in their first year, 60% in their second and 80% in their third and final year of arbitration.

Super 2s complicate that, but with the base salaries listed it is clear that Nolasco will be underpaid. If you figure $11.5 million as the free agent base value, then Nolasco is getting 52% for his third year of arbitration and 78% in his fourth.

On top of that, $11.5 million is paying Nolasco as if he’s approximately a 2.5-win pitcher. Nolasco easily exceeded that in both 2008 and 2009 and even matched that in an injury-shortened 2010 season. All the Marlins need is for him to do is repeat 2010 three more times and they’ll have broken even. Is that feasible for Nolasco?

After one of the most unlucky seasons in 2009, Nolasco posted similar core numbers in 2010 and saw his atrociously unlucky 61% strand rate in 2009 rebound to a much more usual 72%. And though his strikeouts dropped a little, he reduced his walks proportionally and even upped his swinging strike rate. He missed some time with a knee injury, but non-arm injuries are less worrisome and he remains a fair bet to log at least another 150+ innings of mid-3 xFIP in 2011 and beyond.

The Marlins got themselves a good deal here that could turn into a fantastic deal if Nolasco stays completely healthy.

The Colorado Rockies have acquired right-handed reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Houston Astros for a pair of minor league pitchers, Wes Musick and Jonnathan Aristil. Lindstrom, swapped from the Florida Marlins to Houston last December, will join Huston Street, Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle, Franklin Morales and others in a Colorado bullpen that placed third in the National League in reliever xFIP in 2010.

Turning 31 next month, Lindstrom’s ERA has jumped significantly since he made his debut with the Fish in 2007. He had a 3.09 ERA in ’07 and a 3.14 mark in 2008, but that figure rose to 5.89 in 2009 and 4.39 this past season. However, his underlying performance hasn’t degraded that much — he’s not as bad as those past two totals suggest, but he was never really a relief ace in the first place.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Kansas City Royals possess one of the most fertile farm systems in recent memory. In addition to top position prospects Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Will Myers, K.C. has unparalleled pitching talent — Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Danny Duffy and Christopher Dwyer are potential top-of-the-rotation lefties. From the right, there’s Aaron Crow and two of the four youngsters acquired in the Zack Greinke deal, Jeremy Jeffress (likely headed to the ‘pen) and Jacob Odorizzi. Pitching prospects are more volatile than their position player counterparts, so some of the arms listed above will almost assuredly flame out due to injury or attrition. But by sheer volume, Dayton Moore should soon be able to fill out the front of the Royals’ rotation with talented, cost-controlled pitchers.

Before the prospect cavalry arrives, though, things could get ugly. Post-Greinke, Kansas City’s Opening Day rotation figures to include Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, Vin Mazzaro and Sean O’Sullivan, with Gil Meche a long shot to log significant innings due to a damaged shoulder (he may just stay in the bullpen). Chances are, the team adds a low-level free agent starter or two to compete for the fifth spot.

Dan Szymborski has released 2011 ZiPS projections for K.C. Here are the forecasts for the four guys currently penciled into the rotation, as well as Meche. I’d recommend that fans keep their noses buried in Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook this season, because Royals games might look like Charlie Brown’s All-Stars running on a loop until those celebrated arms arrive:

Read the rest of this entry »

This article was initially meant to be one piece, but there was too much information to analyze. In order to save everyone from one massive article, I’ve decided to split this piece into two parts. Part two will run in the coming days.

While traveling for the holidays, I find that a good book makes a flight much more enjoyable. Last night, I began my journey through The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2011. While I have found many of the articles intriguing, Craig Wright’s How to Handle a Pitcher was particularly interesting. In the article Wright examines the Texas Rangers new approach to pitching, argues against current pitch count restrictions and explains how to handle young pitchers. In this piece, we are going to focus on young pitcher workloads. With more prospects reaching the majors at younger ages, how difficult is it for team to prevent long-term injuries to their prospects while pushing them just enough to maintain short-term success?

Read the rest of this entry »

In case you’ve missed the Top 10 lists so far, here they are. Click the team names for scouting reports/profiles.

30. The Chicago White Sox

1. Chris Sale, LHP
2. Jared Mitchell, OF
3. Brent Morel, 3B
4. Dayan Viciedo, 1B/3B
5. Tyler Flowers, C

Read the rest of this entry »

Even before trading away Zack Greinke, the Royals were widely considered to have the best farm system in baseball. With Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress now in the fold, some prospect analysts believe the the Royals’ farm system may be historically good.

Is this a case of hyperbole, or do the Royals really have one of the best farm systems ever?

Read the rest of this entry »

If you go to our pitcher leader boards and sort by BB/9, you’ll see a trio of lefties on top. Jonathan Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez, and C.J. Wilson pitched effectively in 2010 despite being the only three qualified pitchers in baseball to walk more than four per nine. Yet all of them out-performed all of their peripherals, in some cases to a considerable degree. It made me wonder who is the best bet in the long-term. In other words, if you got to pluck one of these guys from his current team, under his current circumstances, whom would you choose?

Read the rest of this entry »

Tidbits started floating around yesterday that to some extent the Angels were out of the running for Adrian Beltre. Those rumors coalesced as the day wore on and the story appears to be that Boras and Beltre have rejected the Angels latest offer and that negotiations are at a standstill currently, but not off entirely.

This was a bit of a surprise since as the free agent market has settled it appeared an almost lock that Beltre would end up in Anaheim. They are one of the few remaining teams with adequate payroll room and they have a definite need at third base where Maicer Izturis is better suited as an all around backup infielder. The Angels also lack a top tier 3B in their near term minor league pipeline and a rough guess of their projected win totals have Anaheim sitting a few wins behind the Texas Rangers. In short, they have more means, more motive and more opportunity than any other team.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode Fifty-Six
In which the guest is neither a cannon, nor a geyser: discuss.

Headlines
The Moneyball Book Club
Meta-Meta Musings on Blogging
The Sabermetric Biography of James Kannengieser

Featuring
James Kannengieser — Purveyor, White-Hot Prose

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 40 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS