The discussion from my last post about MVP and Cy Young voting, there were a few good suggestions to improve the analysis, so I decided to go back and revisit the data. I’m going to give the baseball writers the benefit of the doubt, try some different methodology, and see if I can find any evidence that they are doing a better job at filling out their awards ballots today than they were ten years ago.
In a continuation of the free-agency bonanza for players in general and relievers in particular, Matt Guerrier is reportedly going to be signing a three-year, $12 million dollar contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Three years for a middle reliever in his thirties seems to be a bit much, but in the case of Guerrier, what is particularly interesting is the great difference between his defense-independent pitching statistics and his ERA/RA.
While Lee’s deal is certainly large, when it was first announced, it slightly surprised me that it wasn’t a lot larger. Given the lack of other elite pitching talent this offseason, the seller’s market so far and the known interest from the Yankees and the recently flush Rangers, Cliff Lee getting a record-setting contract for a pitcher would not have surprised me. The reports of Lee leaving $50 million on the table made Philadelphia’s offer seem almost small though.
This off-season we’ve seen 13 catchers sign major league deals — 14 if we count Victor Martinez among them. For the most part these deals were modest in nature, between $3 and $5 million per season for a short span. The exception is John Buck, who signed a three-year, $18 million contract early in the free agency season. While the initial reaction pegged it as a poor deal, there was a chance that the deal could look a bit better once the rest of the off-season unfolded. A month later, it appears to be the opposite.
One of the finely bound tomes to which I appeal more often than the many other finely bound tomes in my impressive collection is Epictetus’s Discourses. Epictetus, a Stoic who thrived in the early second century AD, unsurprisingly trumpeted those virtues prized by Stoic philosophy — in particular, the ability to make decisions which would free one from the shackles of painful emotion. The particular joy — or at least one of the joys — of reading Epictetus is his voice, which is kinda a cross between Oscar Wilde and Gunnery Sergeant Hartman from Full Metal Jacket, if you can imagine that.
In a passage I’ve just recently read, and which I’ll share with you post-haste, I think Epictetus has something to offer those of us who concern ourselves with player valuation — especially when it comes to assessing some aspects of a player’s “true talent.”
He wasn’t going to give the Rangers a “hometown discount,” but Cliff Lee was willing to re-sign with the Texas Rangers. According to Rangers CEO Chuck Greenberg, Lee was willing to stay with the Rangers if they guaranteed a seventh year. The Rangers, however, were not willing to meet those demands, and Lee returned to Philadelphia. Now that Lee has gone and formed the “Best Rotation Ever,” how will the move affect the Rangers?
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Wally Pipp is best known for the circumstances surrounding his removal from the New York Yankees’ lineup. Being the player who directly precedes a legend is tough. Oh sure, the tavern reminiscing about when “that guy played for us” is glamorous, but mostly unfulfilling. Playing accomplishments grow lonely from neglect and, in the worst of cases, become irrelevant- head nod and fist bumps for you, Robert Eenhoorn.
Pipp’s a little different than Eenhoorn though. As this graph illustrates, the man could ball:
J.P. Howell may have been relatively forgotten around the league after sitting out the 2010 season due to labrum surgery. The Rays, however, haven’t forgotten Howell’s recent contributions to their organization. The lefty threw nearly 90 innings for the AL East champion 2008 team while posting a 2.22 ERA and 3.39 FIP, becoming an elite relief ace for a team making the jump from worst to first. He took a slight step back in 2009, although his 2.84 ERA and 3.71 FIP are still top-flight for any bullpen. The Rays and Howell agreed to a $1.1 million dollar contract on Monday. As Howell only has 4 years and 7 days of service time, he will be under team control for the 2012 season as well.
With the signing of Cliff Lee, sports gambling websites have vaulted the Phillies into World Series favorites, as they have passed both Boston and New York by assembling a fearsome rotation. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt is a pretty easy sell, after all. But, if we want to find out whether the Phillies really are the team most likely to win it all next year, we need to look at their overall roster.
Let’s start with their strength. Even if they trade Joe Blanton, as is assumed, their rotation should be the best in baseball. Dan Szymborski revealed that ZIPS projects the Phillies Phour to be worth +19.8 WAR in 2011. If we add another +1 WAR for Kyle Kendrick and the various collection of extra starters that Philadelphia will use to fill out their rotation, we get something like +21 WAR from the Phillies starting pitchers. That’s a pretty good start.
