Yesterday, I went through the formula used for predicting which starting pitchers have the greatest chances of going on the DL in a given year. Now here are the projections for 2011. Besides revealing the list, a few other points and possible improvements to the process will be discussed.

First, here are the five most and least likely starting pitchers (>20 GS and >120 innings in 2010) to go onto the DL in 2011 (creating these projections is still a work in progress, so no one should take too much stock in them right now):

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So the Cardinals have their long-sought backup catcher: Gerald Laird will caddy for Yadier Molina in 2011. In and of itself, this seems to be a fairly vanilla addition. Laird is a catch-and-throw type, and he’s put up miserable offensive numbers in three of the last four seasons. At age 31, Laird probably has little hope for significant improvement outside of some “lightning in a bottle” randomness.

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When the Dodgers non-tendered Russell Martin, it was only a matter of time before some team took a flier on him. Three AL East teams, in fact, were reportedly seeking his services. This morning we learned that the Yankees have come out ahead. MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports that the Yankees have agreed to terms with Martin. His presence could drastically alter how the Yankees approach the next eight months.

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Now that we know the basic structure of Cliff Lee’s contract with the Phillies – 5 years, $120 million, plus a vesting option for a sixth year that could take it to $135 million in overall value – we could break down the contract in terms of what the Phillies are expecting in terms of wins and future inflation. But, in this case, I’m not sure it is all that necessary, because the Phillies don’t need a certain level of performance needed to justify their high bid since they got Cliff Lee with a bid that was slightly lower than what New York and Texas offered.

In many cases, free agents become almost instantly untradeable due to the Winner’s Curse, as the signing team only gets to become the signing team by paying an amount that no other team in baseball is willing to match. But that’s not what happened here. Both Texas and New York were willing to commit similar dollars and years to Lee, but he simply chose to go to Philadelphia instead.

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Late Monday afternoon, the White Sox signed Brian Bruney to a minor league deal, and most of baseball yawned, scratched themselves, and turned the page. To be fair, Bruney has had an FIP over five for the past two years, and even his career number (4.73) is not terribly interesting. He walked 20 batters in fewer than 18 innings last year. He’s walked 43 batters in his last 46 2/3 major league innings. With his career 6.51 BB/9, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever be a useful part of a bullpen again.

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The St. Louis Cardinals
2010 MLB Record: 86-76 (2nd in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 22rd (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Shelby Miller, RHP
Acquired: 2009 1st round (Texas HS)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

Notes: Miller, 20, has a good pitcher’s frame and he does a nice job of staying tall in his delivery. He throws with a low three-quarter arm angle. Miller occasionally has his front foot land a little too far toward third base, which causes him to throw across his body as well as cause command issues. A good athlete, he needs to work on consistency with his delivery. He held his own in low-A ball in 2010 as a teenager by displaying good control (2.85 BB/9). Miller posted a 2.42 FIP while missing a lot of bats (12.08 K/9). He produced an average number of grounders (46%). His repertoire includes a fastball that touches 96-97 mph, a good curveball, and a changeup. Miller certainly has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the organization and he’ll open 2011 in high-A. The right-hander should spend the majority of the season there but he’s talented enough – despite his age – to see a late-season promotion to double-A. He should be ready for regular MLB action in 2013.

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They call it Plan B for a reason. Last week, while meeting with the press at the Winter Meetings, Yankees manager Joe Girardi said that the team had a list of five or so players the team had discussed in the event they miss on Cliff Lee. While we don’t know which players the Yankees have identified, we do know one thing: none of them is as good an option as Cliff Lee. But with Lee spurning the Yankees’ bid, they’re stuck with one of these lesser options, or else go into the season with a questionable rotation.

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After breaking it off with Jack Cust, being spurned by Lance Berkman and getting the feeling that Adrian Beltre’s just not that into them, the Oakland A’s are expected later today to announce the signing of Hideki Matsui. Assuming the 36-year-old’s achy knees check out during his physical, Matsui will take over as Oakland’s designated hitter.

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The original version of this podcast contained an incorrect story about how Pete Abraham broke the Carl Crawford trade that has since been removed. I apologize to Pete for repeating a story I was told without knowing all the facts, and retract the statement entirely. – Dave

Episode Fifty-Four
In which the panel is both real and spectacular.

Headlines
The Drinking Habits of the Boston Media: Revealed!
The Role of Twitter at the Winter Meetings: Examined!
Eno Sarris: Talked To!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Joe Pawl, American Pole
Eno Sarris, Left Coaster

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 30 min play time.)

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A quick glance at the 2010 WAR leaders at second base proves just how difficult it can be to project baseball players over a given season. Now that FanGraphs has launched their Fan Projection pages for the upcoming season, you can put your knowledge to the test against those pesky computer projections. As fans, it’s your duty to stop the inevitable machine uprising by proving humans are superior to their machine counterparts. Today, we will look at four second basemen that ended up in unfamiliar places on the WAR leader boards last season.
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