2011 Fan Projection Ballots Now Open!
The 2011 Fan Projections ballots are now open for you to project your favorite players!
Last year we ran the first annual Fan Projection ballot here on FanGraphs and you responded with over 50,000 ballots to make the project a huge success! According to Tangotiger’s Forecaster Challenge you collectively ranked 10th out of 21 overall. Not a bad showing for the first time around.
Here’s a quick look at the projection ballot:
Before you can project any players, you’ll have to select the team you follow most closely towards the top of the screen. If you really don’t follow a team, just pick one. You’ll only have to do this once.
After you’ve selected a team, there are 9 categories for pitchers and 10 categories for position players. Pick the values in the drop-down boxes closest to what you think the player will do in 2010, hit the submit button and you’re done! If you made a mistake, you can always go back and change your selection at any time.
Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.
That’s really all there is to it. You can filter players by team, or if you go to the player pages, you can project players individually. If you want to see all the players you’ve projected, you can click on the “My Rankings” button which will show you only what you specifically projected a player to do.
Fan Projections will show up on the player pages after there have been 15 ballots submitted.
If you do notice any issues, please let us know.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Small request, but would it be possible to see what the BABIPs are based on our projections. I’d like to have that to double check that I’m not over/under estimating player’s batting averages.
So, basically put BABIP in the My Ranking section?
For pitchers, I’ll note that this year BABIP is automatically calculated. There were some problems with calculating pitchers hits and therefor WHIP last year, but I think that should be pretty much corrected.
If you did, it would be like double Christmas.
Sounds really intersting to know how accurately the fans project players on their ‘own’ team vs. players on other teams. Did you gather that info last year, or is it new this go-round? I would expect some optimism by the fans for their hometown team.
We have that info, but I don’t remember doing any studies on it. From what I remember last year, (just eyeballing it) fans were slightly more optimistic but not horribly so.
If I recall correctly, the difference between actual performance and general fan projection was bigger than the difference between fan-of-team and non-fan-of-team projection.
Is there any way you could get rid of players who are retired? I did feel some glee at giving Eric Byrnes zero at bats.
I really wish you would include Saves in the projections. I know closer situations fluctuate even in the off-season, and that saves are notoriously difficult (impossible) to accurately project anyway, but crowd-sourced save *predictions* would be immensely helpful to people preparing for fantasy leagues (which I know a lot of people use these projections for.)
Never mind, I’m an idiot: I see now that you use “pitcher’s role” & G to ballpark save predictions. Sorry!
question: when we go to the “my rankings” tab it shows stats as one number. as in a 7.48 k/9, even though we entered it as 7.00 to 7.99 or something. how does it choose the exact value to show?
Question:
Is it frowned upon to predict a steep jump or fall in numbers just based on personal feelings? Should I keep it 100% analytical?
For instance, I predicted plus defense for Andrew McCutchen, even though he was terrible in the field last year. I think his tools and some learning are going to boost him to a very good outfielder…is that reasonable, or should I have been more conservative?
I have a problem with the SP projections.
When I enter 6.5 IP/Game the projected IP comes out based on 6 IP/G.
Can this be fixed?
This should be fixed now. Wasn’t a ballot problem, just a rounding problem.