So far this spring, SP Yu Darvish has pitched 9 innings while walking 7 and striking out 10. Rangers fans, like any typical fan would, are beginning to laugh nervously. It is only human tendency, of course, to make too much out of Spring Training. We have been trapped in a baseball-less winter for nigh-on twelve or eighteen months or something up until this month, so when we finally get some more of that sweet, leather-tossing action, it’s only natural we freak out when someone goes 0 for 3 or a pitcher allows 2 home runs.
The best solution to this March Mania is to refer to the wealth of statistics behind the player and remind oneself that, more often than not, the last few years will tell us much more than the present spring. Well, for Darvish, it’s not as easy. So here, today, right now, I offer that March Mania solution for all NPB imports (I’m looking at you, SP Wei-Yin Chen, SP Tsuyoshi Wada, and OF Norichika Aoki):
Presenting the 2011 NPB stats for hitters and pitchers:
Hitters
Please do note: The hitters’ wOBA+ has not been calculated with park adjustments. The formula is simply adjusted to league average (which was .281 wOBA in 2011).
Pitchers
Please do note: The pitchers’ FIP- has not been calculated with park adjustments. The formula is simply adjusted to league average (which was 3.43 FIP in 2011).
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It should also be noted that the two leagues in Japan do have different rules regarding the DH, but these numbers have been calculated according to the NPB as a whole, not the specific leagues within it.
You are welcome to download these charts and unhide certain hidden columns (mostly old school or counting stats like RBI or W-L records). Just click on the green Excel icon at the bottom of the first chart (both charts are contained in a single file).
Enjoy!
Ooo wOBA+, FanGraphs should implement this!
We have wRC+, which in my humble opinion is preferable, if not virtually the same thing.
Oh hahaha, awkward….
Let’s pretend I never asked this…
Oh, it should also be noted I have the PA filter set to 200 for the batters, but did not set a default filter for the pitchers.
Users can change either (without affecting the original document).
Does anyone know of an NPB fantasy site? I would love a league where rosters are drafted essentially on statistics alone.
Ohh, I’ve not heard of one — frankly, it’s hard to find just NPB stats to begin with — but I’d happily join such a league.
Masahiro Tanaka the next big thing?
Patrick Newman is the authority on such matters, but — assuming Tanaka has interest to play in the US — it certainly seems like he would be no small get.
This is totally sexy, but I am getting an error when attempting to DL the Excel file…??
Really? That’s a bummer.
If you click on the far-right icon, it should open the excel file in my skydrive. You should be able to copy/paste into your own spreadsheet from there.
This is great – thank you so much for compiling and posting!
I had been led to believe by some article which I can’t specifically recall that Darvish’s 2011 performance was not “that good” in the league context, and that in fact he had not led the league in any important categories. I see now that this was completely false, and in fact he led starting pitchers in SO, FIP (to the extent the FIP components translate meaningfully to NPB), K/9 and K% (probably – not quite enough information to do a full calculation). And to the extent he didn’t lead in certain categories (W, CG, SO, ERA, K/BB) he was second to or tied with Tanaka, who clearly stood with Darvish in a cluster apart from the rest of the league.
Assuming the overall NPB talent level is somewhere between AA+ and AAA+, and considering his age, I’m now a lot more comfortable with his MLB prospects. I’m thinking Ubaldo Jimenez might be a good comp for his potential.
Oh yeah, Darvish was in a class of his own in 2011.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/yu-darvish-2012-projections-he-gon-be-good/
And I would wager the NPB is somewhere between Triple-A and the MLB, otherwise the NPB would be absorbing all our Quad-A guys — and they would be lighting up the NPB.
Yeah, the popular opinion seems that the NPB is slightly better than Triple-A ball on talent. There are a few factors though that could provide differences in the numbers. For hitters, most turfs are artificial, so groundballs are more likely to go for hits (I think they still have some field with all dirt infields). Second, teams are more risk averse, so they tend to be conservative with their defenses and strategies (a lot of bunting, not a lot of diving, or stretching out hits, etc.), also a lot of the fences tend to be short, according to reports (though apparently this hasn’t resulted in much power spikes, since most of the HR leaders in Japan are usually American players). There are no PETCO parks in Japan.
In terms of helping pitchers, I know the ball was changed to be “less-carrying.” Also, umpiring is notoriously questionable (and if you have seen the movie Mr. Baseball, there has been reports of bias against foreign players in terms of umpiring), and fewer errors are called.
I know these differences don’t make a huge change to the “slightly better than Triple-A” label, but I think they can give a little more context into the NPB numbers overall.