2011 Trade Value: #20-#11
#50-#46
#46-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
#25-#21
The Trade Value series has it’s grand finale today, as we’ll wrap up the final 20 spots on the list with two posts this morning, and then I’ll be around to chat about the list at noon. Jonah Keri will then be by at 3:30 for his regular Monday chat, so don’t worry, you can still talk bagels and poutine later today.
On to the penultimate 10.
Rank – Player – Position – Team – Past 3 Calendar Year WAR
#20 – Bryce Harper, OF, Washington: +0.0 WAR
I have a feeling Harper and Mike Trout will be linked together for most of their careers, and while I did not set out to put them next to each other on this list, I’m not overly surprised that they ended up side by side. Both are extremely good young talents, and while Harper’s probably the higher upside guy, he is just in Double-A, and his game is raw enough that he might not provide value at the big league level for a few more years. But talents like Harper don’t come along often, and even contending teams would give up the farm to have Harper in their system.
#19 – Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit: +20.4
If the list was just players coveted for their on field abilities, I’m not sure how many pitchers would rate ahead of Verlander. He’s the classic ace with a power fastball and a big knockout breaking ball. He’s exactly what scouts want in a pitcher, and there’s no mystery to how he’s able to dominate or concern that it might go away any time soon. At 28, he’s in the prime of his career and getting better. Only Roy Halladay has been significantly better over the last three years. At $20 million per season for each of the next three years, his contract isn’t an anchor, but the salary is high enough to knock a lot of teams out of the running. He’d still command a huge return from the teams who could afford him, however.
#18 – Jon Lester, SP, Boston: +16.1
Premium pitching continues to be in high demand, and there are few better southpaws in the game than Lester. He’s established himself as a consistent front-of-the-rotation guy, and at just 27-years-old, he’s showing no signs of slowing down. His contract includes two more years at a total of $19 million guaranteed and then a $13 million club option that is a lock to be picked up unless his arm falls off. If he were a free agent, he’d get double the AAV for twice as many years as he’s currently getting paid, and the Red Sox know that they have one of the game’s best bargains in terms of starting pitching.
#17 – Brian McCann, C, Atlanta: +13.7
It’s taken awhile (and an injury to Joe Mauer), but we can finally anoint McCann as the best catcher in baseball. He has a terrific all-around game, hitting for average and power, taking his walks, and being an asset behind the plate for the Braves. With the downturn in offense output over the last few years, a guy like McCann is even more valuable because of the relative difference between what he can give you and what other teams are getting from their catchers. Even though he only has two years left on his contract after 2011, he’s owed only $20 million over those two years, and his present value is extremely high. The Braves won’t part with him, but it would take a monster offer to even get them to not hang up the phone.
#16 – Mike Stanton, OF, Florida: +5.2
Yes, Stanton strikes out a lot. Yes, he’s a corner outfielder with a career on base percentage of .328. If you focus on Stanton’s flaws, you might just miss the fact that he’s already a good big league player at the same age that most of his peers are trying to break into high-A ball. His prodigious power and athleticism help him overcome the raw aspects of his approach at the plate. As he gets older and learns to control the strike zone a bit more, Stanton has the potential to be one of the game’s best hitters. Given his current usefulness and his upside beyond what he is now, the line would be out the door to acquire Stanton’s services for the next five years. He’s one guy you can be pretty sure the Marlins aren’t going to trade, however.
#15 – Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida: +16.4
Ramirez was another tough one to place. On the one hand, he’s a 27-year-old shortstop with a career 136 wRC+, nearly an impossible combination to find anywhere else in the sport. On the other hand, a lot of teams don’t think he’s going to stay at shortstop much longer, his power has been going in reverse for the last four years, and he’s fought with just about every manager he’s had down in Florida. There is some feeling in the game that Ramirez’s best days are behind him, even despite his young age, and that any team who traded for the 3 years and $47 million left on his deal would be getting a guy who should move to the outfield but might not be willing to put in the work to make it happen. He’s too good to be any lower than this, but realistically, Ramirez’s perceived attitude problems have probably cost him 5-10 spots from where he should be based on his talent level.
#14 – Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle: +17.7
Perhaps the key number here is 25 – Felix’s current age. Despite being the reigning AL Cy Young winner and a guy with over 1,300 career innings in the big leagues, Felix is still one of the youngest guys on this list. He’s matured into an all-around ace and has shown he can handle a Halladay-esque workload. The only thing that will stop Felix from being one of the best pitchers in baseball for a long time is an injury. He’s no longer cheap at $58 million for the next three seasons, but that’s a fraction of his market value, and if the Mariners ever do decide to trade their ace, the haul will be astronomical.
#13: Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland: +4.3
In the first 134 games he’s played in the big leagues, Santana has racked up +4.3 WAR, a fantastic total for any player. That he’s done it while posting a .260 BABIP is even more incredible, and suggests that his still-terrific batting line might be underselling just how good he really is at the plate. He’s a switch-hitting catcher with power and patience who still makes good contact, and he’s a good enough defender to stay behind the plate for some time as well. Santana has the skills to be an MVP candidate going forward, and he’s already in the discussion for best catcher in the American League. Oh, and the Indians control his rights for another five years.
#12: David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay: +9.0
After a couple of years of struggling with the strike zone, Price has finally found his command and has developed into the ace that everyone expected him to be as the #1 pick in the draft. He’s dominating primarily with just his fastball, and if he improves his secondary stuff, he has best-pitcher-in-the-game potential. His salaries will begin to shoot northward once he becomes arbitration eligible, but with four more years of team control, he’s a cost-controlled asset that every team in baseball would love to have.
#11: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles: +14.0
The highest rated pitcher on the list, Kershaw has become a true front-line starting pitcher at age 23. He’s cut his walk rate, upped his strikeout rate, and continues to maintain his below average rates on BABIP and HR/FB. The flaws that could be nitpicked the last few years are mostly gone, and now Kershaw is just a lights-out left-hander who is legitimately one of the best pitchers in baseball. As an arbitration eligible guy this winter, he’s going to start to get paid for his success, but his salaries will still just be a small fraction of what he would get on the open market. Given his age and current performance, I don’t think any other hurler in baseball has more trade value than Kershaw.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Madison Bumgarner not top 50? Ridiculous.
*my team’s good young player* isn’t on the list? How can this be! You are all out to get me!
Gordy Becks not in the top 50? How? He’s the best defensive second baseman in baseball. DAVE CAMERON HATES THE WHITE SOX
Stupid Stats. Nerds
YAZZZZ
Not really, Bumgarner looks like the best he will do will be a career #2. There is nothing wrong with that and he is very good but not surprised he is not in the top 50.
He’s currently top 3 in FIP and top 15 in both fWAR and xFIP at 21 years old. He’s making league minimum until 2013.
I dunno, but that seems like better than a career #2 to me.
Lets see this year Bumgarner is 3rd (behind only Halladay in the NL) in ALL OF BASEBALL in FIP and 15th in baseball in xFIP (while posting the highest BABIP out of all qualified pitchers. Here are Bumgarner’s month by month FIP/xFIP splits this year.
Mar/April 4.12/4.21
May 2.38/3.47
June 1.98/2.35
July 1.31/2.10
Bumgarner is 3rd in baseball in FIP while being unlucky with his BABIP and LOB% (15th worst in baseball) but getting lucky with his HR/FB%. I would say Bumgarner is already an ace
Even if he’s a #2 (a nebulous category, but whatever), a #2 who’s about to turn 22 with 4 more really cheap years is worth a ton.
His minor league numbers were pretty sick if I remember correctly. I agree, the MadBum should be on the list somewhere.
Darnell McDonald not top 40? Absurd.
Yeah, I’m a bit shocked Madison Bumgarner apparently didn’t make this list at all. He’s 21 years old, has only about a year of service time and is third in the majors in FIP at the moment.
I don’t get that either. He’s accumulated 5.4 WAR in his first 38 games started of his career, and has won playoff games (which, though it doesn’t really matter, would make some GMs believe he is “clutch” or won’t collapse under pressure). If he were traded, he’d get a HAUL in return.
Further: He ranks in the low 20s among starting pitchers in xFIP over 2010-11, right between CC Sabathia and David Price … and his first arbitration year will be 2013.
Bumgarner should be on here. Maybe you wanna ding him some for a track record of only two half-seasons, and we haven’t seen him pitch 200 innings in a year yet, but he should at least be top 50.
Then you have to ding Santana for his two half-seasons too.
Actually Bumgarner pitched 214 innings last year. 82.2 in the minors, 111 in the MLB regular season, and 20.2 in the playoffs.
It didn’t look to me like he faded down the stretch any, or has any holdover effects this year either.
So who else is in the top 10 with Bautista, Longoria, Tulo, and other names I’m not thinking of?
So top 10 has some combination of:
Longoria
Zimmerman
Heyward??
Pedroia
Votto
Upton
McCutchen
Bautista
Bruce
Tulowitzki
Bruce has already been named.
Adam Dunn.
Imma kill you Allan.
And then write an 8-minute rock ballad about it.
Hey! That’s my thing! Don’t steal my thing!
Yeah, I think it’s pretty damn likely Heyward is in there, despite his down year. He showed last year that his tools translate to MLB, and the team control is an obvious asset. The injury concerns are legit, but without more of a history of related injuries (as opposed to several different things which have affected him in different ways), it would be very weird to drop him from #2 to below #50.
With that huge contract, Tulo shouldn’t be in the top 10. Top 25 maybe, and that’s pushing it. He’s a great player but also a slight injury risk and will be very expensive in the future.
Longo will probably be number 1.
Yeah, Tulo is clearly awesome, but that contract is just market rate or worse given a reasonable projection out to 2020(!). Offering a team the chance to pay a guy more or less what he’s worth for the next 9 years is not really the kind of transaction which returns significant value.
Justin Upton?
I think BJ Upton should make it too 😉
I guess so? Cameron had him as the #11 last year, made a lot of pretty laughable estimations of his value when the trade rumors swirled around him last year (Lincecum, Heyward, and Pujols MIGHT induce Towers to take enough time to laugh before hanging up), and Upton is now having a legitimately good season, so…#1A-prime-ultimate-trade-commodity, I’m guessing?
Beckham just plain isn’t the best defensive 2B in baseball
I would put him above average but that is about it.
But he has the best fielding percentage! He’s only made one error!
In all seriousness, he is doing pretty well for only playing the position for a year and a half but I hope the White Sox don’t have any more nationally broadcast games so I don’t have to listen to crap about how they are such an awesome defensive team.
The original poster was being sarcastic.
But yeah, did anyone see that play by Pedroia last night in the epic 16-inning game? Insane how quick that man is.
Commenter’s name was Hawk Harrelson. Clearly a joke.
If Bumgarner makes his changeup lethal, he will be a top of the rotation guy. And that is still a huge possibility.
What about Dan Hudson…..He should be on this list. A very young talent that has room to grow. Also what about Drew Stubbs!!
The teams with Gallardo, Ricky Romero, CarGo, Rasmus would all jump at MadBum for a 1 to 1 deal without a second thought.
I dunno, an angry loser doesn’t seem like a player I want.
What about an angry winner?
bautista or longoria for #1? its probably still longoria but i bet bautista’s contract extension made dave think long and hard about it
Bautista’s great, but he’s 30 (31?) and is way more expensive than longo. I don’t think anybody unseats longo from #1 just yet.
Agreed, but Bautista’s 1A. Yeah, he’s paid a ton more, but it’s still not much for the best player in baseball.
One of the most heated debates between fans and writers seems to be how good a pitcher Bumgarner is and/or will be (throw Brandon Morrow into that mix.) I wish we knew of a sabremetric website that posted articles about such issues………………..
I could see Tulo either top 5 or not on the list entirely because of his massive contract. Either way, it’s sure to be one of if not the most controversial placement.
J Ups. Yessir.
Has Kemp been listed?
Dave said at the beginning Kemp isn’t on the list
Still no Escobar? How is that possible?
Escobar’s not going to make it. And yes, that’s a mistake. Cameron mentioned his attitude issues as part of what keeps him off.
I was going to do a Player A vs Player B comparison of Yunel and Hanley Ramirez, their stats this year, their salaries, etc, but was too lazy, simply because of the statement about how Yunel was left off the list due to attitude problems, and Hanley has the same issues.
But we’ll probably have to wait a year or so before we can convince people that this must happen.
Comparing MadBum to Brandon Morrow is like comparing Clayton Kershaw to um, Jonathan Sanchez.
We know you wanna suckle at MadBum’s teat, we know. Take off your rose-colored glasses and account for his home park and competition, too.
amen
Seriously Jason B? His Home/Road splits show him doing better on the road. His FIP is top 5 in baseball. The only reason that he’s not on the list is because Cameron forgot to actually go look up MadBum’s stats. He was just relying on hearsay and anecdotal evidence that is frankly BS. (I thought FanGraphs was supposed to perform statistical analysis?)
shhhh… don’t talk back to the Giants fans or they will only come back in greater numbers. This problem is only exacerbated by their smug, self-satisfied glow after winning the WS….
“The only reason that he’s not on the list is because Cameron forgot to actually go look up MadBum’s stats. He was just relying on hearsay and anecdotal evidence that is frankly BS.”
Umm…ok. You got me. You got Dave. He did zero research and looked up absolutely zero stats, he just picked 50 guys that he overheard some anonymous dude thought were pretty good. Well played sir, well played!
(And I agree Bumgarner should be on the list, just was pointing out the expectations for Bumgarner and Morrow going forward, if placed in similar environments, would likely not be remarkably different.)
@Jason B-
Well…I don’t know about Dave, but he certainly “got” you.
When you challenge somebody to “account for his home park” and they come back w/ the fact that said player has actually pitched much better on the road; well, little buddy…you got “got”.
You’re right that overall ERA- of 98 got me good!! *Slinks away*
In terms of value, it’s got to be Asdrubal Cabrera at #1. He is the best player on a first-place team, and as we know from MVP voters:
best player on team + first place team = most valuable player in league
I like how BABIP and HR/FB are used to either promote a player (Kershaw) for his ability to control said aspect or identify a candidate for regression (Santana) both in the same article!
Great analysis!
Where did it say Santana was a regression candidate…?
Positive regression.
The fact that Kershaw’s keeping his ball in play rates low is a weird thing for Cameron to cite as a positive without at least some reasoning for why it might be sustainable.
It could just be that he’s kept them low for three seasons now, suggesting it’s not a fluke.
It doesn’t have to be sustainable for actual MLB GMs to want to trade for him. For a lot of GMs getting better results than he *should* get is not going to stop them from wanting to acquire Kershaw.
Ari,
My point was to highlight the inconsistent nature with the stance he took and the nature of the argument.
DavidB,
I’m not really sure if this series is “what they’d trade for by rational GMs” (lol Wellz), “what they should trade for by the average GM”, “what I think they should trade for”, or “what an astute baseball analyst thinks they should trade for”.
Ike Davis didn’t make it? That’s ridiculous!
(I’ll now go weep because the best guy I can list to get involved in the complaining about my favorite team not being represented is a guy who needs microfracture surgery)
I wasn’t comparing Morrow and Bumgarner talent wise. Lots of posters on this site make the low FIP argument when discussing how good each respective pitcher is and will be. Lots of interest in the future of each pitcher is what I was trying to say.
Ah, definitely agreed. It’s a good time to be a fan of the game in general – tons and tons of exciting young arms we get to watch develop over the next few years.
Albert
He’s a short timer. Not many teams would give up even an A prospect for a mere 70-odd games of Pujols.
Thing is, If you’re talking about the future, Morrow is already 27 while MadBum is 21. Huge difference.
Yes and no, because this is just trade value and only includes the contract in which they are currently under control. Signing them after that doesn’t factor into these rankings and they are both young enough that you don’t have to worry about them getting old and worse than they are(quite the opposite actually).
Wow. This is painful.
Again…Bumgarner has 4.5 yrs of control left, whereas Morrow has 2.5 yrs left.
Even if you were to discount the ENORMOUS discrepancy in age, which is a losing argument in itself, control over a player’s contract still serves as the veritable trump card.
Yeah, Bumgarner not in there seems absurd. As a Cardinals fan, it’s pretty clear the team would trade Rasmus plus one of their top ten farmhands for MadBum right now, and personally I think that’d be a fantastic deal for the club. 4.5 years of a guy who’s already looking like a 4 WAR player with (perhaps) a little more ceiling to come. If I’m not mistaken we didn’t see Matt Moore on the list either?
Also, I’m not sure that Verlander’s not somewhat over-rated here. He is legitimately one of the best pitchers in the game, but he’s very expensive indeed and an injury could quickly turn the 60-odd million he’s still owed into a pretty huge albatross. He’s never *quite* put up the K rates you’d think he might with his stuff, has been somewhat lucky (it would appear) on HR/FB rate throughout his career, and his reduced BB rate this year looks more like an artefact of pitch sequencing/luck than a genuine increase in skill, given his zone percentages. I’d take Halladay (and his 2 years of $20m/yr) in a second over Verlander (and his 3 years of $20m/yr), even with the age I think Roy is a good bet to out-WAR and out-IP Verlander over the first two years of the deal.
Dude, the “Felonious Monks” is the name of my fantasy baseball team and has been for a decade. Great minds, I guess!
I’m not sure if his HR/FB rate is lucky or a skill. After 1000 IP, you might call it a skill.
I’m sorry, Dave, but I’m having a hard time taking this list seriously. Interesting idea, but what’s your methodology? It reminds me of the difference between a trade in fantasy baseball and real life – there is a big difference.
I mean, is there any GM in baseball who would rather have Ben Zobrist than Cole Hamels or Jered Weaver? Obviously I’m an Angels fan, but in Weaver you have a 28-year old who is arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now–or, at the least, in the top five–yet why isn’t he up there with Verlander and Lester?
Maybe I just don’t get it. Are you using some formula to figure out the rankings? If so, I think it is a clear instance of where statistical analysis starts breaking down. If not, what are you using?
It takes contracts into account. Hamels and Weaver only have 1.5 years left ,and they’re going to get seriously paid during them.
perhaps you should read the intro
Again, I’m talking about fan graph reader interest in both pitchers. Read a few chats and comment sections. People like talking about them.
Totally subjective and anecdotal, but I can’t recall ever seeing anyone hit a baseball as hard as Mike Stanton does. It’s scary how hard he can hit the ball. I’m not a Marlins fan and I didn’t really understand the hype until I saw him play. Definitely one of the guys that would get me to pay for a ticket.
Tulo’s getting paid as if he’ll preform at his current level for the next ten years. I’m not sure that contract has trade value.
At first I balked at Pujols being in the top 10, but I imagine a contending team would have to give up a ton to rent his bat for the stretch run and that rental comes with two draft picks if/when he signs elsewhere… That having been said, how does that trump Felix, Kershaw, Hanley, and the young catchers?
I would have guessed Heyward would have fallen out of the top ten due the fact his injuries and recovery time are starting to be an issue, though I little problem with staying there.
Votto, Longoria, Pedroia, Heyward, Zimmerman, McCuthen, Bautista, and BJ’s brother seem like locks. Not sure about the other two. We know kemp is out, Bruce has already been listed, and we’re done w/ prospects and Pitchers.
Maybe Madison Bumgarner, 2B is in the top 10.
you can’t look at FIP for Bumgarner. He benefits from a friendly pitcher’s park which has reduced his HR/FB rate. XFip is a better comparison to other pitchers. in which case, he is pretty good, but not great.
He is 15th in the majors. When you take into account all of the other factors (age, years left of team control), he still looks pretty darn good to me.
The point is that one could make a reasonable argument for why Bumgarner doesn’t belong in the top 50.
Exactly. Isn’t the 15th best (which may be a stretch, but even if he’s the 25th best pitcher the argument holds) pitcher in MLB who is 21 and still learning the trade, and under team control for 4.5 years, currently being paid the league minimum, one of the top 50 trade commodities in the league?
No Adam Wainwright in the top 50?
” Only Roy Halladay has been significantly better over the last three years. At $20 million per season for each of the next three years, his contract isn’t an anchor, but the salary is high enough to knock a lot of teams out of the running.”
Is “he” Halladay or Verlander?
I doubt Dave would talk about Roy Halladay’s contract in Verlander’s entry.
🙂 kershaw
The lack of Madison Bumgarner is an atrocious oversight. This “he won’t be any higher than a #2” stuff is garbage; he’s 21 years old and would already be a #1 on about half of all major league teams. He’s cost controlled for a year longer than Kershaw, and has produced more WAR in less innings than either Felix or Kershaw did in their age 20/21 seasons.
Madbum is a 6-5 lhp, already built like a man with a frame that projects to add even more mass, and currently throws a FB at 95mph.
Sorry, there just aren’t many, or any, of those in the major leagues right now. He’s under team control until 2016 and has the ability to be the best pitcher in baseball. There is no 21 year old in the minor or major leagues that can stand as his equal.
On a side note:
Last year the Giants refused to trade MadBum straight up for Jose Bautista. I’m glad they didn’t. I honestly believe that any team in baseball would trade any player straight up for MadBum, and the Giants know that and wouldn’t trade him for Tulo, Longo, Joey Bats, Kershaw, any of them.
I would have to personally rank MadBum #1in trade value amongst all MLB players for this reason. If he were traded for any player straight up, the Giants would be more likely to lose than to win on that trade.
Whoa, pard’ner. Most people agree that he should be on the list, but #1 is absolutely insane. There are quite a few young pitchers who are clearly better than him (Kershaw, Price, Pineda, Strasburg if he can come back 100%)
Just because MadBum produced more WAR than Felix or Kershaw in same-age seasons does not in any way mean that he will become better than them either. Koufax wasn’t really good until he was 26; Valenzuela was great at age 20 and wound up having an average career.
My own side note: it’s impossible to tell whether or not he made the correct decision, but you probably shouldn’t use a decision made by Sabean to support your argument.
“I honestly believe that any team in baseball would trade any player straight up for MadBum.”
Patently false. Ridiculous on its face.
“I would have to personally rank MadBum #1in trade value amongst all MLB players for this reason.”
Then your rankings would be…wrong. As ‘wrong’ as a subjective article could be anyway.
Let’s not get carried away and say ridiculous things we don’t really mean in the heat of the moment.
One mistake doesn’t ruin the whole list. I would think Bumgarner doesn’t have quite the same trade value as Micheal Pineda, but I would put them in the same neighborhood.
The giants would absolutely trade him for kershaw, votto, longoria, should for Bautista, and a good amount of other players. Absolutely. To think otherwise just is biased thinking
As a giants fan, yes I would do any of those this season. However, to pass on bautista for bumgarner middle of last year? That was the right move. And for the record, last year, without madbum, we’re throwing the rotting corpse of todd wellemeyer in there every fifth start, in a season where one game puts us out of the playoffs. This year, obviously you take bautista, but that goes for almost every player.
I think from a GM’s perspective, sure you leave madbum out of the top 20, hell 30. GMs can be dumb sometimes. But yeah, certainly no lower than 30-40. I’m no sabermetrician, but even I know how to sort the xFIP table by ascending.
If Hanley Ramirez came up in the Braves organization would he be on this list?
Just say no to MadBum
lol
Saying “Bumgarner should be on the list” is meaningless. There’s a specific list – who on the list is Bumgarner more valuable than? That’s a discussion worth having – not “what relative position should he be at” in an abstract.
Clearly, everyone who thinks he should be on the list thinks he’s more valuable than Brett Gardner. Who else?