After destroying the internets with the title on my last post about Jason Bartlett (Break the Reimold as it were), it’s only fitting that I follow it up with a title just as putrid. That’s not to say, however, that I don’t think the Padres were acting rationally when they signed their new shortstop to a two-year, $11 million contract that buys out his last year of arbitration and his first year of free agency. It may not have been a big-red-letter signing – instead, it could possibly be as solid as this title was bad.

Year one should come at about a 20% discount given the structure of salary arbitration, so this contract is sort of the same as valuing Bartlett as about a $12.2 million player over two years. Look at Bartlett’s six-year career, and you’ll see that only once has he failed to live up to being a player worth about six million a year. He’s managed better than 1.8 WAR every year… except last year.

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No, it’s not the newest cop buddymovie set in southern Ohio. Instead, the combination of newly-inked Fred Lewis and current Red Jonny Gomes could be the solution to one of the few holes remaining on the Cincinnati Reds roster: left field. Although it remains to be seen if that’s the way that Dusty Baker will use this pair, a platoon of Fred Lewis and Jonny Gomes should be productive in 2011.

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In recent seasons, teams have come up with inventive ways to utilize their young pitching prospects. One of the more popular strategies among teams is to let their prospects gain experience in the bullpen. Some pitchers (Neftali Feliz) stick in the bullpen permanently, some (Phil Hughes) are eventually moved into the rotation, and some (Joba Chamberlain) are jerked between the two roles. 

While it has already been determined that Sale will prepare as a starting pitcher this off-season, his stay in the rotation may depend on Jake Peavy’s health. Since the White Sox have five solid starters, Sale would be the most likely candidate to move back to the bullpen once Peavy recovers. Although this looks like the most likely scenario for Sale in 2011, let’s explore the thought of employing Sale in one role.

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The Chicago Cubs
2010 MLB Record: 75-87 (5th in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 19th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

*This list originally included pitcher Chris Archer, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, and outfielder Brandon Guyer but all three players were sent to Tampa Bay in the Matt Garza deal.

1. Brett Jackson, OF
Acquired: 2009 1st round (U of California)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5

Notes: Jackson, 22, has the potential to be an All-Star outfielder and a 20-20 threat. He split the year between high-A and double-A and hit .297/.395/.493 in 491 at-bats. His success in pro ball has been aided by high BABIPs, never posting a rate below .352. The former No. 1 draft pick used his plus bat speed to post ISO rates of .202 in high-A and .189 in double-A. Jackson strikes out a ton (27.6 K% at the senior level) but gets on base at a solid clip (11.2 BB%). He definitely had a pull-oriented approach when I saw him. Jackson showed a nice, quiet stance – there is not much going on, which means there is less of a chance for something to go wrong and cause him to fall into a prolonged slump based on mechanical issues. Lowering his hands a bit might help eliminate some of the loop in his swing. Defensively, he can handle center field but may end up in left field. He’s still improving his reads and routes, and his arm strength is just average.

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The nature of the season brings about a plethora of articles searching for the next ‘something’. Looking for the next breakout is a popular topic, meaning the search for the next Jose Bautista is going to be overdone. The wise Randy Moss provided the most succinct description of Bautista’s 2010 season when he said, “Take the ball deep and take the top off the defense.” Bautista did on 54 occasions, earning his place in history with the 42nd individual season featuring 50 or more home runs. If history is any indication you can call off the search party before nightfall.
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As noted towards the end of last week over at NotGraphs, I’ve recently acquired the Bill James Player Ratings Books from 1993 to 1995.

One thing about the Player Raters that, so far as I know, is distinct from James’ earlier Baseball Books or Baseball Abstracts, is the introduction of grades for prospects. This is notable for at least four reasons, as follow:

1. Prospect rating, generally speaking, is exciting.

2. Prospect rating is more exciting when Bill James (plus Rob Neyer and John Sickels, his assistants over that span) is the one doing it.

3. The prospect rankings in these Player Raters very likely represent the earliest attempt by a sabermetrically oriented writer to rank and discuss prospects.

4. Almost all of the prospects discussed in these books are done with their careers, thus giving us a chance to see what a Grade A or B or whatever prospect looks like over the course of his career.

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Most readers of FanGraphs probably understand that as a strategy for scoring runs, bunting is usually a bad idea. There are times when bunting is appropriate: whether for purposes of “game theory” (getting the infield to play further in) or, in certain game situations, to play for the win rather than for overall run expectancy. In other words, while bunts are mostly a bad idea for increasing run expectancy, they can sometimes be a good idea for increasing Win Probability (WPA).

Even with that in mind, it doesn’t seem that teams are exactly getting the message (case in point). In 2010, our data shows that there were 2988 bunts executed, but only 823 of them (just under 28%) resulted in a positive WPA. That number is probably a bit skewed because it doesn’t include bunt attempts that fail (fouled off, etc.), but it does give the general idea. All that being said, bunts do sometimes “work,” so let’s take a look at the 2010’s five most successful bunts as measured by WPA.

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Baseball fans know about Zack Greinke, the Brewers’ newest addition to a much-improved rotation, but the performance of lesser known Shaun Marcum is arguably just as important to a successful Milwaukee season. The expectations for Marcum may not be as great as that of Greinke, but Brewers fans should be glad to know that Marcum isn’t too shabby a pitcher himself. In 195.1 innings, Marcum struck out 165 and walked 43, good for a 3.74 FIP, a figure better than that of Jonathan Sanchez and Tim Hudson. And Marcum does this with a high-80s fastball.

Marcum mixes two fastballs, a changeup, cutter, slider, and curveball, but primarily relies on his fastball and changeup. He throws a fastball about 45% of the time, but it’s the usage of his changeup that’s the key to his success at getting whiffs. He throws a changeup about 26% of the time, fourth in the Majors. Of Marcum’s breaking balls and offspeeed pitches, his changeup is the most valuable because of its funny movement, leading all of baseball in changeup runs above average.

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If there is one stat on this site that inspires more controversy than the others, it’s UZR. One reason I do like the stat, even though I admit its flaws, is that it comprises runs above average from four different defensive components: arm, double play, range, and error. It’s the last that I want to focus on today. While browsing defensive stats I noticed that a few players stand out from their peers in terms of sure-handedness. That is, they have, at some point in the last nine years, almost completely lacked it. What follows is a quick look at infielders who have cost their teams a win, or close to it, just by failing to make plays that the official scorer thought they should have.

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Last year, as spring training began to ramp up, we got the annual collection of articles about players reporting to camp in “the best shape of their lives”. While it’s a phrase so overused that it is easy to mock, I figured it would be worthwhile to catalog the players who were noted to have worked hard over the off-season, giving us the chance to look back and see if we can spot any performance differences from guys in the group. Thus, “The Good Shapers” post was born. Today, we fulfill the second half of the purpose, and look back at whether these guys actually performed better than expected.

We’re going to start with the hitters today, since evaluating their results is pretty straight forward. There are fewer environmental factors to consider, and we can essentially look at their pre-season projections and their final batting line without worrying about too many biases or noise in the data. For this task, we’re using the 2010 Marcel projections. On to the results.

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