Perhaps no division has seen its pitching staffs improve as much as the National League Central. Additions of Zack Greinke and Matt Garza, the re-signing of Jake Westbrook, and the expulsion of Dave Bush should result in an improved state of pitching. As silly as it sounds, the Pittsburgh Pirates have contributed to this pitching renaissance too. Although lacking in star power, the team has made strides to field a rotation that won’t be the worst in the league next season.
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I already wrote earlier about my thoughts on Matt Garza, and Joe covered the Cubs’ end of this deal, but let’s tackle how this trade affects the Rays for 2011. I’ll leave the prospect analysis of Archer, Lee, and Guyer to Marc, and just say that they’re generally considered to be some of the better players in the Cubs system. All three will likely spend a good chunk of 2011 in the minors, however, so we’ll set them aside for now.

For the upcoming Rays season, this deal essentially amounts to a swap of Garza for Robinson Chirinos and approximately $6 million in cash – the money they would have otherwise had to pay Garza through arbitration. In name value, it’s a big step backwards, and will likely be viewed as just a cost-saving move by the general public. In reality, though, there’s a good chance that the Rays will be better next year by trading Garza away.

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The rumors started gaining traction this week, and now we have a deal. The Cubs have acquired Matt Garza and two minor leaguers in exchange for five players, including Chris Archer, whom Baseball America recently ranked the Cubs No. 1 prospect. The move has a clear win-now bent, as the Cubs’ NL Central rivals have loaded up on talent this winter. But it this enough to put them back in the picture?

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If there’s one rumor that just won’t die this winter, it’s the Cubs potentially trading for Matt Garza. He is quickly becoming their white whale, or, if we want to bring it back to baseball, Jim Hendry’s version of Erubiel Durazo. Despite having a pretty full rotation, the Cubs are clearly enamored with what Garza brings to the table, to the point that they’re willing to make a brutal deal to acquire him. But I’d like to suggest that if they really wanted a pitcher with this skillset, they could have just signed Aaron Harang as a free agent this winter and gotten the same thing.

Over the last three seasons, here are their respective lines:

Garza: 3.05 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.09 HR/9, 38.9% GB%, 4.39 xFIP
Harang: 2.57 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.47 HR/9, 35.1% GB%, 4.21 xFIP

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Baseball Prehistory | Deadball Era | Liveball Era | Post-War
Expansion | Free Agency | Modern Era

We’re pleased to welcome Joshua Maciel to the site, and today marks his first post here as an author. Josh designed the original graphic that eventually turned into WARGraphs, and we look forward to more of his interesting visualizations going forward.

Admittedly, I don’t know a lot about players from long ago, save the ones who are famous for one reason or another (I hope I’m not alone). If they weren’t in Ken Burns’ “Baseball” documentary, then I probably don’t know much much about them. Sometimes I’ll see an article like this one by Steve Treder that brings an older player to light. And sometimes, usually around this time of the year, someone will talk about Hall of Fame snubs, like in this article by Adam Darowski about the best players not in the Hall of Fame. But for the most part, I’m willfully ignorant.

Looking at all the players in baseball is a daunting task. There are a lot of them. There are a lot of eras. How do you judge people who played back in the 19th century when you are only familiar with the players of more modern eras? Even if I look at the player page for someone like Cupid Childs, what can I really figure out? He is totally removed from context; how can I judge a guy who played so long ago against his peers if I’m not familiar with them? I get lost easily in the numbers. I can look and stare at stats until the cows come home, but not get anywhere because of the lack of context.

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As I stated in my piece on Craig Kimbrel earlier this week, I’m a big fan of high-strikeout pitchers. Much like Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, John Axford, and Chris Sale burst onto the Major League scene as strikeout wizards last season.

Kenley Jansen struck out 41 and walked 15 in 25 relief innings for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season. He posted a 1.82 FIP, but that was largely based on the fact that he didn’t allow a single home run. High walk rates and high strikeout rates are nothing new for Jansen. In his three minor league stints, he struck out at least 14 per nine innings, and in two of them he walked at least five hitters per nine innings. The question isn’t so much if he can continue to strike batters out as much as if he can weather the inevitable home runs he will allow, particularly if his 34% ground ball rate continues.

John Axford led all NL rookies in saves last year as he took over for the corpse of Trevor Hoffman. He struck out 76 batters in 58 innings at the Major League level, which doesn’t put him at Carlos Marmol levels but does rank 11th among all pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. Strikeouts were never a problem for Axford in either the Yankees system or with the Brewers; in every stint in which he wasn’t used as a starter, Axford struck out at least 10 batters per nine innings. Whereas with Jansen the issues were with the home run, Axford will have to avoid the walk to remain successful in 2011: he walked at least 5 batters per nine innings in all but one stint (only 4 appearances) in the minor leagues.

Chris Sale has all of 32.1 professional innings to his name, with 23.1 of them coming at the MLB level with the Chicago White Sox last season. Sale struck out 32 batters in those 23.1 innings to go along with 19 in his 10.1 minor league innings. Sale posted a 2.74 FIP, but unlike the other pitchers on this list he has so little experience that he’s still a big mystery. Further, the possibility remains that Sale will move from the bullpen to the starting rotation, which will probably put a damper on those big strikeout numbers.

What do you think? Click here to enter your projections for Kenley Jansen, John Axford, and Chris Sale.

During an off-season of inflated contracts, the Cincinnati Reds have remained one of the quietest teams in the majors. Despite winning the National League Central for the first time since 1995, the Reds haven’t made any significant acquisitions this off-season. That should change as the Reds are expected to sign Edgar Renteria to a one year deal worth up to $3 million depending on incentives. Renteria, who isn’t known for his fielding, has slipped offensively over the past two seasons. With Renteria already experiencing stages of decline, is it possible the Reds will regret this transaction?
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The Twitterverse was aflutter Tuesday with mention of ESPN news editor Barry Stanton’s Hall of Fame ballot. Stanton did not vote for either of the eventual inductees, and he was the only ESPN voter not to select Roberto Alomar, but he wasn’t entirely stingy with his ballot. He voted for five players: Jack Morris, Edgar Martinez, Tino Martinez, Don Mattingly, and B.J. Surhoff. While the individual picks may be hard to understand at first blush, his vote for Edgar Martinez is hard for a Fangraphs blogger to complain about, and it made me want to play devil’s advocate and justify the other players on the ballot.

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It’s obvious that Jason Heyward’s .277/.393/.456 debut was impressive, especially since it came at the tender age of 20. When it comes to his walks, it was just a hair short of record-breaking. His 91 walks last year were the the third most walks in a debut since 1960. Heyward will obviously be a boon to his team if only for that great walk rate, but are there are any other players that broke in with similar plate discipline stats that can show us a similar debut and can therefore tell us something about Heyward’s possible future development path? Or is Heyward unique?

Well, there is a player in the news right now that might just be somewhat comparable: Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell may have to wait to get into the Hall, but he debuted with 75 walks at 23 years old. That’s the most walks in a rookie season put forward by a player younger than 23 since 1985 (other than Heyward’s of course). We also know, with the benefit of hindsight, that walks would feature greatly in his game going forward, as he steadily upped his contribution in the category from 75 to a peak of 149 in 1999. His plate discipline came well-formed and was refined over time, and the similarity seems to suggest that Heyward will have many .400+ OBPs – Bagwell had seven, with two more over .397.

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The Padres have a strict budget to adhere to thanks to possibly the worst television deal in baseball and an ownership transfer that may last through 2013. Because of that, Jed Hoyer’s team has to approach free agency with creativity if they hope to compete against teams with financial flexibility for the same players. Factor in how their ballpark limits offensive production and Hoyer has to do a great job of selling his team for desirable players to buy in. As it turns out, Hoyer is already using a clever solution by promising not to offer arbitration if his newly inked free agents reach Type A status, according to Corey Brock of MLB.com.

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