This is Part 3 in a series on Microeconomics and Offense. Part 1 can be found here and Part 2 can be found here.
The next step in using microeconomic theory for baseball offense is to draw isoquants. These reveal a lot of characteristics of the dataset, and they are just plain neat to see on a graph.
Jonathan Broxton, known to Dodger fans as “The Ox,” lost his closer role in August this past season after a 7.45 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in July. After a 2.26 FIP in 2008 and a 1.97 FIP in 2009, Broxton fell dramatically in 2010 with a miserable post-All Star performance. His home run rate remained relatively unchanged, while his walk rate increased by a little less than one walk per nine innings. Of the rate statistics, Broxton’s strikeout rate changed the most, decreasing from 13.5 K/9 in 2009 to 10.54 K/9 in 2010. But the largest difference in Broxton’s pitch results was how often he got hit (and how hard he got hit). Batters hit .270/.351/.367 off Broxton in 2010 (as opposed to .203/.276/.289 in 2007-2009).
It has long been assumed that Adrian Beltre was going to cash in on his big year in Boston and head back to the AL West, though most speculation had him landing in Anaheim. The guesses proved partially true – right division, wrong team. While it is not yet official, it appears that Beltre will be competing directly against the Angels as the new starting third baseman for the Texas Rangers, signing a five- or six-year contract for around $15 million per season.
In a piece for ESPN three weeks ago, I suggested the Rangers make exactly this move, so it’s not surprising that I think this is a pretty good move for Texas. However, Beltre’s a pretty polarizing player, and you will surely read a good number of skeptics listing off reasons as to why the Rangers are crazy to give him this kind of long-term deal. I figure that it might be worthwhile to confront the most common criticism of his value ahead of time, so let’s tackle the most frequently repeated complaint about Beltre.
As mentioned in NotGraphs around the time of that wondersite’s inception, Australian people now have a baseball league. In terms of the level of play currently going on there, Carson Cistulli isn’t necessarily the guy to ask about that; however, the league features former and current Major and Minor Leaguers, so it’s not, as Charles Barkley would probably say, completely “turrible.”
In any case, with our vigorous, sunburnt friends now two months (about 30 games) into their season, I thought it might make sense to see which players have distinguished themselves.
Given that at least some of those writers charged with electing players to the Hall of Fame see themselves as guardians of propriety, the PED fixation shouldn’t surprise anyone. As more and more players of the contemporary era hit the ballot, the steroids issue is only going to become more of a consideration. The puzzling lack of support for Jeff Bagwell (and the pathetic speculations surrounding his candidacy), says to me that it’s already too much with us.
Not that I have anyone’s ear, but for those voters who will take PED use (admitted or formally alleged or concocted from vague suspicions) into heavy account in the coming years, I’d make a few points …
Lock up your young players. That has been the theme of the past two winters. Last off-season we saw a number of prominent players, including Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez, sign extensions that will keep them in their respective towns. This year we’re seeing more of the same. The Rockies doled out perhaps the most prolific extension, signing Troy Tulowitzki through 2020. They were at it again this week, signing Carlos Gonzalez to a seven-year deal for around $80 million. That’s a pretty massive contract for a player who has played one full season and parts of two others. It also seems massive when compared to one of his peers.
With the off-season winding down and a need at first base, the Orioles targeted Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche as the best options remaining in free agency. They ended up signing Lee because he was willing to accept a one year deal, while LaRoche was holding out for a multi-year contract. His demands are reportedly going to be met, as he’s rumored to be nearing a two-year deal to sign with the Washington Nationals.
The shakeout seems a little bit backward to me. LaRoche is an inferior player to Lee in just about every way, and yet he’s the one getting the multi-year contract. Let’s compare their skills, shall we?
Sort among batters for swinging strike rate over the past three years, and (unsurprisingly) you’ll get a list that features most of the strikeout kings at the plate. Mark Reynolds (17.5% swinging strikes) and Ryan Howard (15.3%) obviously belong based on their respective career strikeout rates (38.7% and 32% respectively). But track a little further down the list and you’ll notice that a high swinging strike rate is not always a harbinger of a high strikeout rate.
You won’t have to go far. Even third place on the list, Josh Hamilton, has a decent strikeout rate (20.6%) despite his high swinging strike rate (13.7%). Delmon Young even pairs a better-than-average strikeout rate (18.6% career) with a top-ten worst swinging strike percentage (12.7%) over the last three years. Clearly, the tendency to swing and miss at offerings is not the sole determinant of a batter’s strikeout rate.
A question without a correct answer: Who is the National League’s version of Brett Anderson? The answer that felt right to me at the time of this writing: Tommy Hanson.
With the opening of the 2011 Fan Projection ballots I thought it would be interesting to look back at the 2010 Fan Projections. The ballots ask fans to identify their favorite team; this allows us to see how differently players are projected by fans of their team than by the fan community as a whole.
Here I will look at this question for the position players (I will look at pitchers in my next post) who had at least 10 ballots by fans of their team. This left 206 position players. I assumed that players would be projected more optimistically by fans of their team than by other fans, and this was the case. On average players were projected half a win higher by fans of their team, with 1.5 runs coming from higher fielding projections and 3.5 runs coming from higher batting projections. Of the 206 players, only 34 were projected worse by fans of their team.