The Kansas City Royals have as much optimistic buzz around the franchise as they have in years. Almost all of that buzz, however, has to do with the minor league system, which is the best anyone has seen in a long time. On the major-league level, 2011 looks like it will be another long season, as there is very little talent there and aside from one big 2011 call-up, the farm system probably will not really begin to make its impact felt on the big league team until 2012. In any case, the 2011 major league team does have some players worth watching, and the front office needs to find out which of those players are worth keeping around when the prospects start to come up. Hopefully the front office will stick to that plan. In the meantime, 2011 could get pretty ugly.

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It used to be that the problems with the Twins roster stemmed mainly from their frugality. These days, thanks in part to their shiny new ballpark and recent playoff appearances, the Twins are spending with the big boys, but the roster still has uncertainties. Mo money, mo problems indeed. Despite Justin Morneau’s return to the field yesterday, it still may not be possible to know how his season will unfold. In addition to Morneau’s plight, shortstop is a question, the Twins may be incorrectly surmising who are their five best starters and the bullpen may have more unknowns than even Liam Neeson could solve. However, while these are not minor concerns, they don’t outweigh the multitude of positives the Twins have on the ledger heading into 2011, and another AL Central title is definitely within reach.
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All the Phillies can do now is hope that rest and rehab heals Chase Utley’s right knee. He has yet to play in a game this spring due to tendinitis, though his lack of response to treatment has caused deeper worry. This morning the Phillies said that they’re continuing “non-operative treatment” and that “additional options will be obtained,” but that language doesn’t sound encouraging. If Utley does miss significant time, the Phillies could have a hard time getting someone who can provide even a quarter of his potential value.

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“The death of the Rays is greatly exaggerated.” – Joe Maddon, Spring Training 2011

I know I’m going to be accused of homerism, but here it is: the Rays are better than you think they are. Yes, I know they just had a rough off season, losing Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Soriano, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler. Those players contributed a total of 15 wins to the Rays last season, and the Rays didn’t add much free agent talent to compensate for these losses. Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, and Kyle Farnsworth were their only notable roster moves, and they are easy to write off as they are aging or (in the case of Farnsworth) have a spotty track record. How could the Rays possibly hope to compete with the Yankees and the restocked, reloaded Red Sox?

And yet, that’s exactly what the Rays plan to do.

The Starting Nine

Behold, the mind of Joe Maddon!

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I’m pleased to announce that the 2011 Second Opinion is now available for purchase!

The product is now available both as a PDF with additional online integration!

Here’s the rundown:

Player Profiles – Almost 600 (598) in-depth player profiles written by the FanGraphs and RotoGraphs contributors you’re already familiar with.

Articles – Closer situations, players coming back from injuries, sophomore players to watch, 2011 fantasy prospects, impact trades, the big questions for 2011, and Carson’s non-prospect rookie picks!.

Quick Opinions – New for this year’s Second Opinion is a short one to two sentence profile that give you the bottom line about a player. These are also integrated into our various projection pages so you can quickly get more information about a player.

Player Page Integration – Each player’s profiles is integrated into his player page so you can easily read about the player as you’re browsing his stats.

Bonus Material – FanGraphs has partnerned with ESPN Insider this season and if you purchase the Second Opinion, you’ll have access to anything we write for ESPN Insider right here on FanGraphs.com up until March 1st, 2012.

2010 Second Opinion – In addition to all that, regardless if you bought the 2010 Second Opinion, you still get access to the now obsolete 2010 Second Opinion’s content in the player pages and in the bonus blog.

The Philadelphia Phillies
2010 MLB Record: 97-65 (first place, NL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 5th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

1. Domonic Brown, OF
Acquired: 2006 20th round (Georgia HS)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

Notes: Brown had an impressive showing in the minors in 2010 by posting a wOBA of .427 in 65 double-A games and .417 in 28 triple-A contests. He was also able to sustain his ’09 power outburst and saw his ISO rate stay above .200 for the second straight season (peaking at .284 in AA). Although he strikes out a fair bit (21.6 K% in ’10), Brown shows good patience and posted a walk rate of 10.7 BB% in double-A. He showed the rough edges of his game during a brief MLB trial in which he produced a triple-slash line of .210/.257/.355 in 62 at-bats. His strikeout rate also skyrocketed to 38.7 K%. To be more consistent at the plate, I’d like to see the prospect stay back a little more; if he can avoid getting out of his front foot so early, he may be able to drive the ball more. Defensively, Brown has a strong arm and good range in right field; he just needs more experience to sharpen his overall skills in the field. Despite his struggles in The Show, Brown is the favorite – and deservedly so – to replace the recently-departed Jayson Werth, although he’ll likely miss at least the first month of the 2011 season after breaking his hamate bone. He won’t post Jason Heyward like numbers in 2011 (sorry, Bill James projections but I think The Fans are a little closer to reality) but Philadelphia fans will be happy that the organization refused to part with Brown during the Roy Halladay trade.

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If there’s one downside to having a deep bullpen, it’s that retaining your relievers becomes expensive. Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch all left the Twins for lucrative free agent deals this winter, signing for a combined $39 million in guaranteed money as free agents.

It could happen again after the 2011 season, since Matt Capps is set to hit free agency and Joe Nathan could join him on the open market. Though the Twins have a $12.5 million option for Nathan ($2 million buyout), he’s returning from Tommy John surgery and unless he’s healthy it would be hard to justify an eight-figure commitment regardless of Nathan’s history and popularity in Minneapolis.

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The architect of one of the biggest defensive turnarounds in modern baseball history, Andrew Friedman was given another tough task this offseason: build an entire major league bullpen with limited financial flexibility. In an offseason where relievers banked over $200 million, the Rays signed three relief pitchers (Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, J.P. Howell) to major league deals totaling around $6 million. Given the volatile nature of relief pitchers and bullpens, it is a sound strategy for a small revenue team like the Rays to put their dollars into different areas of the team. However, not only is Tampa Bay budget-conscious, but also stingy when it comes to guaranteed years.

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In a couple of recent posts, I created and then tested a regression model which helps explain the variance in home run per fly ball rate. I ended up with a model which performed really well, so it’s time to turn it loose on the question that sent me down this path in the first place: can Dave Righetti really coach his pitchers to a better HR/FB rate? It turns out, the answer may be “yes”, and it could be more emphatic than I would ever have guessed.

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