Archive for March, 2011
More Predictions That Will Be Wrong
Last year, I wrote a post titled “Predictions That Will Be Wrong”. Given the volatility of events that can happen over a six month period, trying to pick things like MVP winners or WAR leaders is essentially a fool’s errand – there’s just no way to know who is going to stay healthy or who has put in the requisite amount of work this winter to take an unexpected step forward. By their nature, predictions are essentially just guesses, and even educated guesses are generally incorrect.
While some have noted that I “called” Josh Hamilton as last year’s MVP winner, I also “called” James Shields as the AL Cy Young winner. If I’m a genius for the first, I’m an idiot for the latter. I don’t think I’m a genius and I hope I’m not an idiot, so perhaps the best conclusion is that sometimes guesses turn out and sometimes they don’t. Either way, they’re still kind of fun, right?
So, let’s do it again. My 2011 Predictions That Will Be Wrong.
2011 Organizational Rankings: #14 – Chicago
Although the White Sox only rank fourteenth in our overall rankings, let it be known that any organization that marries Kenny Williams with Ozzie Guillen will always be #1 in our hearts.
Present Talent – 80.45 (T-11th)
Future Talent – 65.00 (T-27th)
Financial Resources – 81.67 (T-9th)
Baseball Operations – 80.45 (12th)
Overall Rating – 78.50
When it comes to the product on the field, the White Sox continue to be above average, as they have throughout much of the Kenny Williams Era. Occasionally, they produce great teams (the 2005 World Series team) and duds (2007’s 72-90 clunker). However, the best bet for a Kenny Williams’ White Sox team is competency as opposed to greatness or mediocrity – his teams have won an average of 85 games per season since he took the reins prior to the 2001 season.
2011 Organizational Rankings: #15 – Baltimore
Average performances in all four categories leads to the biggest surprise in the rankings thus far. Baltimore certainly should be considered a team on the rise, but is it enough to justify their lofty position here?
Present Talent – 75.00 (T-20th)
Future Talent – 85.00 (T-5th)
Financial Resources – 76.67 (17th)
Baseball Operations – 76.82 (T-20th)
Overall Rating – 77.45 (15th)
Brandon Allen Belongs in the Bigs
We’re pleased to welcome Eric Seidman back to FanGraphs today. Despite taking a 20 month sabbatical, he is still second among writers in post count here on the site. He’ll be contributing his thoughts here on a regular basis, and we’re pleased to welcome our own prodigal back home.
Brandon Allen has done everything a prospect can do to prove he deserves a legitimate major league opportunity, but the Diamondbacks seem unwilling to give their young slugger an extended look. With the emergence of Juan Miranda as a potential starter and the news that Russell Branyan will make the opening day roster, Allen appears to be the odd man out at first base. Since the team signed Xavier Nady to an incentive-laden major league deal and is committed to giving Gerardo Parra another shot as a starter, Allen also finds himself on the outside looking in at a crowded outfield. Add in that he has options remaining and it becomes increasingly likely with each passing day that he will open the season back in the Diamondbacks farm system, a destination he has completely outgrown.
Over 688 Triple-A plate appearances since 2009, Allen has hit .277/.397/.541 with passable defense at both first base and left field. He’s young, cost-controlled, and clearly capable of producing at a high level, but for whatever reason the Snakes lack confidence in his abilities. Scouts have expressed concern about his swing, but anybody with those numbers at the highest level of minor league competition deserves serious major league consideration.
FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects
The Top 10 lists are in the can – see the site’s main page if you missed your favorite team’s list – so it’s time to rank the Top 100 prospects. Click on each player’s name to visit their player pages and you can also follow a link to each player’s 2011 prospect scouting report (found in the Top 10 lists).
I’ll also be hosting a chat later today at noon eastern, so please feel free to submit a question or comment.
100-80
100. Austin Romine | Catcher | New York AL
99. Yorman Rodriguez | Outfielder | Cincinnati
98. Mark Rogers | RHP | Milwaukee
97. Chris Carpenter | RHP | Chicago NL
96. Alex Wimmers | RHP | Minnesota
95. Brent Morel | Third base | Chicago AL
94. Carlos Matias | RHP | St. Louis
93. Joe Kelly | RHP | St. Louis
92. Tyler Skaggs | LHP | Arizona
91. Trevor May | RHP | Philadelphia
90. Luis Heredia | RHP | Pittsburgh
89. Zach Lee | RHP | Los Angeles NL
88. Arodys Vizcaino | RHP | Atlanta
87. Tanner Scheppers | RHP | Texas
86. Chris Carter | First base | Oakland
85. Tyler Chatwood | RHP | Los Angeles AL
84. Yonder Alonso | First base | Cincinnati
83. Chris Colon | Shortstop | Kansas City
82. Drew Pomeranz | LHP | Cleveland
81. Wilin Rosario | Catcher | Colorado
61-80
80. Jared Mitchell | Outfielder | Chicago AL
79. Carlos Perez | Catcher | Toronto
78. Craig Kimbrel | RHP | Atlanta
77. Stetson Allie | RHP | Pittsburgh
76. Yasmani Grandal | Catcher | Cincinnati
75. Deck McGuire | RHP | Toronto
74. Jake McGee | LHP | Tampa Bay
73. Anthony Ranaudo | RHP | Boston
72. Anthony Rizzo | First base | San Diego
71. Drake Britton | LHP | Boston
70. Jason Kipnis | Second base | Cleveland
69. Nick Castellanos | Third base | Detroit
68. Zack Cox | Third base | St. Louis
67. Matt Dominguez | Third base | Florida
66. Tony Sanchez | Catcher | Pittsburgh
65. Billy Hamilton | Shortstop | Cincinnati
64. Jordan Lyles | RHP | Houston
63. Aaron Miller | LHP | Los Angeles NL
62. Nolan Arenado | Third base | Colorado
61. Matt Davidson | Third base | Arizona
41-60
60. J.P. Arencibia | Catcher | Toronto
59. Grant Green | Shortstop | Oakland
58. Nick Franklin | Shortstop | Seattle
57. Dellin Betances | RHP | New York AL
56. Trey McNutt | RHP | Chicago NL
55. Alex White | RHP | Cleveland
54. Simon Castro | RHP | San Diego
53. Jose Iglesias | Shortstop | Boston
52. Brett Jackson | Outfielder | Chicago NL
51. Jean Segura | Second base | Los Angeles AL
50. Brody Colvin | RHP | Philadelphia
49. Jarred Cosart | RHP | Philadelphia
48. Jake Odorizzi | RHP | Kansas City
47. Wilmer Flores | Shortstop | New York NL
46. Miguel Sano | 3B/SS | Minnesota
45. Danny Duffy | LHP | Kansas City
44. Aaron Hicks | Outfielder | Minnesota
43. Derek Norris | Catcher | Washington
42. Devin Mesoraco | Catcher | Cincinnati
41. Randall Delgado | RHP | Atlanta
21-40
40. Gary Sanchez | Catcher | New York AL
39. Kyle Gibson | RHP | Minnesota
38. Jonathan Singleton | First base | Philadelphia
37. Lonnie Chisenhall | Third base | Cleveland
36. Chris Archer | RHP | Tampa Bay
35. Dee Gordon | Shortstop | Los Angeles NL
34. Brett Lawrie | 2B/3B | Toronto
33. Zack Wheeler | RHP | San Francisco
32. Jarrod Parker | RHP | Arizona
31. Martin Perez | LHP | Texas
30. Casey Kelly | RHP | San Diego
29. Mike Minor | LHP | Atlanta
28. Tyler Matzek | LHP | Colorado
27. Jurickson Profar | SS | Texas
26. Chris Sale | LHP | Chicago AL
25. Kyle Drabek | RHP | Toronto
24. Desmond Jennings | Outfielder | Tampa Bay
23. John Lamb | LHP | Kansas City
22. Jacob Turner | RHP | Detroit
21. Mike Montgomery | LHP | Kansas City
1-20
20. Freddie Freeman | First base | Atlanta
19. Jameson Taillon | RHP | Pittsburgh
18. Manny Banuelos | LHP | New York AL
17. Dustin Ackley | Second base | Seattle
16. Brandon Belt | First base | San Francisco
15. Michael Pineda | RHP | Seattle
14. Shelby Miller | RHP | St. Louis
13. Manny Machado | SS | Baltimore
12. Zach Britton | LHP | Baltimore
11. Matt Moore | LHP | Tampa Bay
10. Wil Myers | Outfielder | Kansas City
9. Aroldis Chapman | LHP | Cincinnati
8. Eric Hosmer | First base | Kansas City
7. Mike Moustakas | Third base | Kansas City
6. Julio Teheran | RHP | Atlanta
5. Jesus Montero | Catcher | New York AL
4. Domonic Brown | Outfielder | Philadelphia
3. Jeremy Hellickson | RHP | Tampa Bay
2. Bryce Harper | Outfielder | Washington
1. Mike Trout | Outfielder | Los Angeles AL
Neftali Feliz Will Close, World Will Not End
Yesterday, the Rangers announced that Neftali Feliz would serve as their closer again in 2011. As is the case when almost any talented young pitcher is shifted from the rotation to the bullpen, the reaction from the stathead community was fairly loud and mostly negative. After all, the superior value of a starting pitcher is a pillar of sabermetric orthodoxy, and using a guy who could start in relief is almost universally viewed as a waste of potential. In general, I agree with this principle. In this specific instance, though, I don’t think there’s really much to be upset about, as I don’t think there’s a significant gap in expected value from Feliz in 2011 regardless of what role they chose to use him in.
Let’s start with the main point of contention – the quantity of innings that Feliz will throw as closer compared to the amount he could have thrown as a starter. Last year, Feliz tossed 69 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, and only a few closers managed higher totals. In most years, even the healthiest ninth inning specialists will only manage about 70 innings per season. If the Rangers use him aggressively and are in a lot of close games, he could push towards 80 innings, but that’s probably the ceiling and shouldn’t be the expected result.
As a starter (assuming he stayed healthy), he’d throw a lot more than 80 innings. The question, though, is how many more? Feliz’s career high in innings pitched in a season is 125 1/3, back in 2008 when he split the season between A-ball and Double-A. He faced 509 batters that season, or about 60 percent of what a full-time Major League starter would face over the course of a season. He’s since faced even fewer batters in the subsequent two seasons, and realistically, it would be unwise of the Rangers to ask a 22-year-old to make a substantial leap in workload this year. Even as a starter, they couldn’t have asked him to make 30+ starts and then still be able to take the ball in October, had they achieved their goals and made the playoffs again. At that point, they’d be doubling his career high workload, and getting close to tripling what he did in 2010.
Watching Spring Training in Chicago
“Chicago is actually a better sports market than Los Angeles,” said my friend Jill. “She knows what she’s talking about,” said her Cubs cap-wearing friend, a classmate of hers at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Business. “She took a course in sports marketing at Kellogg.” We were sitting at the Wrigleyville Goose Island Brewbub yesterday, a huge sports bar with 20 TVs and 20 different kinds of Goose Island beer. I came to the Windy City for a rotisserie draft auction and got in touch with Jill, a lifelong White Sox fan who grew up in Evanston (Sox fans are a distinct rarity north of the city).
We agreed to meet up to watch the Cubs-Sox spring training game in Wrigleyville, the area of bars around Wrigley Field, the confluence of Addison, Clark, and Waveland streets where, in a simpler time, Sammy Sosa used to hit homers out onto the pavement. Chicago’s definitely a sports town, all right, but late March clearly isn’t baseball season.
2011 Organizational Rankings: #16 – Detroit
The Tigers may not have had the most efficient offseason, but then again, they sort of pigeon-holed themselves into that strategy.
Present Talent – 74.17 (T-22nd)
Future Talent – 70.00 (26th)
Financial Resources – 83.46 (6th)
Baseball Operations – 76.67 (T-22nd)
Overall Rating – 76.96 (16th)