Archive for April, 2011
A Tale of Two Cities and Their Broken Pitchers
14 batters faced, 5 hits (1 HR), 2 walks, 2 hit batters, and, just for fun, 1 balk.
17 batters faced, 6 hits (2 HR), 5 walks, but hey, a strikeout!
One of these lines was posted by Scott Kazmir this weekend, the other by Javier Vazquez. I would ask if you could tell which was which, but in reality, it doesn’t matter – they were equally abysmal, and while you should never get too worked up over the results of one start, fans in Anaheim and Miami have all kinds of reasons to be worried about the process that led to those results.
One Night Only: Game Previews for April 4th
April 4, 2011
Note: it’s come to my attention that Derek Holland and not Alexi Ogando will start tonight for Texas — proving that One Night Only is already in midseason form so far as “grievous errors” go.
Throw off the shackles of your ceaseless toil and let baseball into your life, ya dopes.
(Totally proprietary NERD scores to appear at end of April. Probably.)
Seattle at Texas | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Mariners: Erik Bedard
55.3 IP, 8.79 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 3.79 FIP, 114 ERA+ (ZiPS)
Rangers: Alexi Ogando*
64.3 IP, 9.38 K/9, 4.34 BB/9, 3.66 FIP, 147 ERA+ (ZiPS)
*Actually, Derek Holland. ZiPS: 125.0 IP, 7.42 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 4.38 FIP, 100 ERA+.
On Alexi Ogando, Part I
Let it be known that this author trusts Ranger GM Jon Daniels implicitly. If that weren’t the case before FanGraphs’ Annual Desert Pilgrimage (a.k.a. our trip to Arizona), then it’s certainly the case after the same. For it was there, at the Rangers spring-training facility in Surprise, that I saw a be-sunglassed Jon Daniels operating a golf cart. To use the word “majestic” to describe that spectacle would be to use a word inappropriately. Unfortunately, as I’m pressed for time and possess little facility with a thesaurus, it’ll have to do for now.
The Morning After: Weekend No. 1, NL Edition
Reds over Brewers, 3 games to 0
After their ninth-inning comeback rally on Thursday, the Reds took hold of the series. They got some superb pitching from Travis Wood on Saturday, and then some solid work from Bronson Arroyo on Sunday.
Moving the Needle: Brandon Phillips‘s three-run shot, +.214 WPA. Of course, Ramon Hernandez’s walk-off bomb was the biggest WPA gain of the series, but we covered that one already. Before Sunday’s game was a blowout, the Reds had a 3-2 lead in the fourth, but it wouldn’t stay that way for long. Randy Wolf, as he does from time to time, put one on a tee for Phillips, who hit a high, arcing bomb to left field, plating three runs and blowing the game open. The only other run the Brewers scored was a Ryan Braun homer. Rickie Weeks also homered. In fact, a lot of other people also homered, all around the league.
Reds 7, Brewers 6
Reds 4, Brewers 2
Reds 12, Brewers 3
Also in this issue: Dodgers over Giants, Braves over Nationals, Padres over Cardinals, Pirates over Cubs, Diamondbacks and Rockies split, Mets over Marlins, Phillies over Astros.
The Morning After: Weekend No. 1, AL Edition
Bear with me as I figure out a way to acceptably recap a weekend’s worth of games. Suggestions are welcome.
Royals over Angels, 3 games to 1
In the debut of The Morning After we saw the Royals drop the opener to the Angels, 4-2. It seemed like a one-sided affair until the later innings, when Kansas City put some runs on the board and threatened to take the game. While they didn’t come through on Thursday, they did in each of the following three games, taking the series three games to one.
Moving the Needle: Wilson Betemit’s two-run, game-tying double in the bottom of the ninth, +.511 WPA. Twice this weekend the Royals won on walk-off home runs, but neither of them moved the needle to the degree that Wilson Betemit’s double did. In yesterday’s game the Royals entered the bottom of the ninth down 9-7 and, as was the case on Thursday, they brought the tying run to the plate. Actually, it was Fernando Rodney who brought the tying run to the plate, walking three of the first four batters he faced, including Jeff Francoeur– a sign the Royals were destined to win this game. On the first pitch to Betemit, Rodney delivered a fastball up and over the plate. Betemit drove it into the left-center field gap, where Vernon Wells couldn’t come up with a catch, tying the game. The Royals would win in the 13th, when Matt Treanor hit a three-run, walk-off home run.
Angels 4, Royals 2
Royals 2, Angels 1
Royals 5, Angels 4
Royals 12, Angels 9
Also in this issue: Yankees over Tigers, White Sox over Indians, Mariners over A’s, Orioles over Rays, Rangers over Red Sox, Blue Jays over Twins
Failure to Whiff: Lester’s Place In History
It’s too early to worry. It’s only one outing, right? Right?
But when three of baseball’s premier strikeout pitchers combine for just one punchout in games on Friday, well, it’s interesting. And exceptionally rare–especially for these guys.
Entering 2011, Jon Lester had made 123 starts in his career, with his only K-less appearance coming on April 9, 2008. In that game he lasted 5 1/3 frames, allowing four hits and four runs to go along with four walks. Brett Myers had made 216 career starts and never left a game sans strikeout while lasting at least five frames. Ubaldo Jimenez had started 116 games, whiffing one or fewer batters in at least five innings on just two occasions: September 20, 2007 (6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 1 K), and May 21, 2008 (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 K).
On Friday, neither Lester nor Myers recorded a strikeout, and Jimenez fanned only one batter. In fact, Myers recorded only one missed swing. In a total of 18 1/3 innings, this trio managed fewer strikeouts than Ryan Madson did in his one inning of work.
Rays Extend Wade Davis
Following the blueprint they used to sign a pre-arbitration eligible James Shields prior to the 2008 season, the Tampa Bay Rays signed 25-year-old Wade Davis to a contract extension on the eve of opening day 2011. The guaranteed portion of the deal is four years worth $12.6 million. From there, the team holds three club options that could max the deal out at seven years and $36.1 million.
Anytime you sign a player to a long-term deal there are risks involved. Signing a pitcher is a bit more risky than a position player given the attrition rate of arms. Guaranteeing four years to a starting pitcher with 35 career starts – not to mention five years of team control remaining – is even riskier; however, the Rays are willing to take the risk in exchange for cost certainty. There is also risk on the side of Davis, who could be leaving millions on the table should fulfill his potential as a former top prospect. On the other hand, Davis is hedging his bets by making himself a multi-millionaire at age 25.
Injury Takes Holliday
by Eno Sarris
April 1, 2011
It looks like it’s not an April Fool’s joke – Matt Holliday is having his appendix out Friday afternoon. A tough spring has just gotten worse for the Cardinals. Approximately how many wins has the team lost in the last month? Let’s count it up.
First they lost as many as five wins when Adam Wainwright went down. Even if Kyle McClellan can replicate his league-averageish FIP work from the rotation (which isn’t likely, considering the penalty usually associated with such a move), the team lost at least about three wins when their young ace grabbed his elbow in pain.
Axford Axes Save Opportunity
The defending NL Central champions played like it yesterday afternoon as a four-run 9th inning led the Cincinnati Reds to a walk-off win against the Milwaukee Brewers on Opening Day. When Jay Bruce stepped to the plate down three runs with the bases loaded, memories of the division title-clinching walk-off home run by Bruce last season were immediately conjured up.
John Axford, Milwaukee’s newly respected closer who usurped Trevor Hoffman‘s closer duties last season, had allowed a long single to Brandon Phillips, walked Joey Votto on five pitches, and allowed Scott Rolen to reach base thanks to Casey McGehee’s non-error fielding gaffe. McGehee tried to tag Phillips out as the second baseman was going from second to third, but missed the tag and took a second too long to attempt the force out at first. Boom, bases loaded.
Kershaw’s Hard Slider
As Dave Cameron wrote earlier today, Clayton Kershaw dominated last night’s Opening Day pitching matchup with Tim Lincecum. Over seven innings he struck out nine while giving up just four hits, one walk and no runs. Dave noted that in the broadcast Orel Hershiser mentioned that the Dodgers were looking for Kershaw to throw his slider with more velocity this season. Plus, during the game, the slider looked great to me, so I wanted to turn to the trusty PITCHf/x data to see what was going on.
It does look like those sliders were faster than the ones he threw last year on average. Last night’s sliders average 84.0 mph compared with just 81.4 mph last year. On top of that a third of them last night were faster than 85mph, compared with only a handful of last year’s slider over 85 mph. None of Kershaw’s sliders last night was under 80mph compared to a fair fraction last year. On the other hand Kershaw did have three games last year when he average at least 84mph on his slider: April 13th, April 24th and May 4th.
So compared to his average slider last year he was throwing quite a bit harder, though not outside of the realm of what he did during some extreme games last year. As Dave noted maybe this hard slider (almost cut fastball) could be more effective against right-handed batters than a big sweeping slider. Last night that was certainly the case; Kershaw threw 12 sliders to right-handed batters and got three swinging strikes, three fouls, two called strikes, two outs in play and two balls.
Obviously, that is a tiny sample size. But this potential hard slider is definitely a thing to keep on eye on with Kershaw in the 2011 season, because if he does develop an effective secondary pitch against right-hand batters (his changeup isn’t great) he could erase part of his huge platoon split.