This past offseason, the Florida Marlins traded away toolsy but flawed Cameron Maybin to the Padres in exchange for a pair of relievers. So far this season, Maybin has been putting up a .260/.337/.481 line and looks good in the field. Can we stamp this trade as a win for the Padres already?
Sometimes, rather than having a bunch of thoughts on topic, I find myself in a position of wanting to mention a few different things, but only have a brief snippet to say about them. Today is one of those days, so, we’re doing a notes-style column with some nuggets from the first month of the season.
Jeff Francoeur is off to a good start in Kansas City, and hitting coach Kevin Seitzer is giving credit to his new found plate discipline.
“The amazing part for me is how disciplined he has become when everyone said he couldn’t be,” Seitzer says.
For a spreadsheet of all 116 NERD-eligible pitchers (with scores), click here.
As a reader of FanGraphs, you undoubtedly subscribe to the proposition that whatever humans can do, robots and/or computers can do perfectly. (You probably also subscribe to — and enjoy the completely indecent centerfolds of — Ubuntu Enthusiast, but that’s a different conversation.)
It was with that guiding principle in mind that, last summer, I set about devising a way that my computer might tell me which baseball games to watch on any given night — so long, that is, as I entered in the variables most important to the sabermetrically oriented baseballing fan. This, after medium-sized last, is how NERD was born.
After a bit of fiddling, and no little faddling, it became possible to put a number, on a scale of 1-10, on each specific game — a number that, while not infallible, would anticipate more quickly than I ever could which of the night’s games merited note.
Today, the NERD game score returns.
Just below these words is today’s most interesting contest. After that, some notes and the rest of today’s 15 games.
Pss…ball’s behind you, Jamey.
Moving the Needle: Jamey Carroll can’t handle the slow bouncer, -.437 WPA. The Dodgers appeared to have this one. They staved off a rally in the eighth and then sent out Jonathan Broxton to close it in the ninth. He got the first two guys, but then walked Emilio Bonifacio. How one does that, with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, I do not know. That set up Hanley Ramirez to pinch hit, and he delivered a single to put runners on first and third. Scott Cousins came up next, and he hit a slow bouncer to short. But Carroll whiffed on it, allowing the tying run to score. Two batters later, Omar Infante delivered the single that won it for the Marlins.
Notables
Chris Coghlan: 3 for 4, 2 HR, 1 BB. The walk was an intentional one in the ninth, which was a smart move, considering his two previous homers and the open base at first (and the meaninglessness of Coghlan’s run).
Jon Garland: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 HR. The two Coghlan homers were all he surrendered.
Also in this issue: Angels 5, A’s 0 | Diamondbacks 4, Phillies 0 | White Sox 2, Yankees 0 | Rockies 5, Cubs 3 | Blue Jays 6, Rangers 4 | Reds 9, Brewers 5 | Pirate 4, Nationals 2 | Padres 5, Braves 3 |
Last season, the Chicago White Sox pitching staff led all of baseball in WAR. They did this without employing a starter that most baseball fans would consider an ace. Mark Buehrle may be the longest tenured White Sox pitcher, but his lack of strikeouts hardly make him an ace. While Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson are extremely effective when “on,” they can’t seem to sustain that success over a full season. That leaves John Danks, who has gotten off to a strong start this season. While he may not be a household name just yet, Danks has slowly developed into the White Sox best starter. If his early season results are any indication, he may actually be getting better.
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For the second straight game, James Shields was able to finish what he started. Following a four-hit, one-run complete game victory against the Chicago White Sox earlier in the week, Shields threw a four-hit shutout of the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. In his second complete game, he used just 95 pitches to get the required 27 outs.
On the surface, James Shields had a bad season in 2010. His 5.18 ERA was the highest single-season mark of his career and he showed up in the loss column on 15 different occasions. Meanwhile, beneath the surface it might have been his best performance to date. His xFIP of 3.55 was the seventh best in the American League among starting pitchers (min. 180 innings).
When the Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson from the Detroit Tigers prior to the 2010 season, many expected the All-Star center fielder to thrive in the New Yankee Stadium, even relative to his excellent tenure in the Motor City. Although 2010 wasn’t a disappointing season by any means — Granderson put up a .346 wOBA and solid defense in center en route to 3.7 WAR — he didn’t realize the power boost that many expected with the move from lefty-suppressing Comerica Park to lefty-friendly New Yankee Stadium. That is, until this season. After a modest 24 homer season in 2010, Granderson has slugged seven quick bombs in 2011, lending credence to those who expected Granderson to go supernova last season but were left disappointed. Even though it took a full year, though, we shouldn’t be surprised Granderson is showing some premiere power.
Yesterday Roy Halladay continued the excellent start to his 2011 season, striking out 14 batters — tied for a career best — and allowing a single run over 8.2 innings. Five starts into the season Halladay leads the league in WAR and is second in xFIP and FIP. Halladay, 33, is continuing a trend started in 2004 throwing more cutters and fewer two-seam fastballs. Early in the season he is throwing the most cutters (47%) and fewest two-seam fastballs (26%) of his career.
Halladay has always thrown his cutter more often to left-handed than right-handed batters, and it is no different this year as he has thrown it 58% of the time to left-handed batters. His command with the pitch has been other-worldly:
Alternate titles to this article: “How to NOT Look Like a Nerd” or “Convincing Your Friends You’re Right and They’re Wrong”.
As weird as it may sound, sabermetrics doesn’t need to be geeky. After all, saberists are simply trying to answer the same questions that everyday fans are trying to answer. How valuable is this player? How will certain players and teams perform in the future? Was this the correct managerial move or not? Sabermetrics is a new tool – a confusing tool to some people -but the questions are the same ones that fans have been asking for the last 80+ years.
But how do we present these new tools in a way that keeps mainstream fans from tuning out? How do you talk to your friends about sabermetrics without confusing them and looking like a nerd? It’s a tough balance to maintain, but I’ve found there are five guidelines that work well for me when talking with friends and writing articles.