Sometimes a running narrative can really help a player. This offseason, Vladimir Guerrero took advantage of his bounceback 2010 and turned it into a one-year, $8 million contract with the Orioles. It’s a bit less than he sought early in the offseason, but it was a win for the aging DH. Cases in point: Hideki Matsui, who produced similar numbers to Guerrero last year, got just $4.25 million. Jim Thome, better than Vlad last year, got $3 million. But because Vlad’s narrative involved him bouncing back for a pennant-winning team, he ended up commanding far more than his peers. But that deal isn’t looking so swell for the Orioles right now.

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Last night, the commissioner’s office released a statement noting that the league would “appoint a representative to oversee all aspects of the business and the day-to-day operations of the (Los Angeles Dodgers) Club.” Essentially, Bud Selig was seizing control of the Dodgers “because of my deep concerns regarding the finances and operations of the Dodgers and to protect the best interests of the Club.”

As Jonah wrote last night, the last time Major League Baseball owned a franchise, it was an utter disaster. The way the Expos were ran during the time that the league had stewardship over them was an embarrassment, and highlights the problems that can arise in this kind of natural conflict-of-interest situation. With the other owners incentivized to not lose games to a property they had an ownership stake in, the Expos were essentially turned into baseball’s version of the Washington Generals.

But I have to believe that Selig learned some lessons from just how poorly that situation was handled, and he knows that he can’t make those same mistakes again. Additionally, Los Angeles is not Montreal, and with all respect to Jonah’s memories, the Dodgers are not the Expos. This is a storied franchise in the largest media market on the west coast – the problem won’t be finding a new owner, but rather picking from among the horde of people who will be interested in purchasing the team.

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American singer-songwriter Randy Newman says, “Watch these games.”

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Previews for today’s three most interesting games.

2. Updated Team NERD scores and updated ZiPS projections for pitchers (where appropriate).

3. At least one more whimsical comment about American singer-songwriter Randy Newman.

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Cubs 2, Padres 1

Moving the Needle: Reed Johnson walks off with a home run, +.354 WPA. The Cubs appeared well on their way to a 1-0 victory in this one. Carlos Marmol came on for the top of the ninth, but couldn’t close the door. Cameron Maybin’s walk and stolen base, followed by Will Venable’s bunt single — ballsy move with the tying run in scoring position with one out — led to Jason Bartlett’s sac fly, which put this one into extras. The Cubs avoided disaster in the 10th and the 11th. Johnson made sure that they couldn’t blow it in the 12th. On a 1-1 pitch he took Luke Gregerson deep, giving the Cubs the win.

Notables

Matt Garza: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 9 K. That’s now 34 strikeouts in 24.2 innings this season. The solid game helps get the old ERA in line with the FIP.

Dustin Moseley: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 9 GB. The ground balls have come in quite handy for Moseley this season. Also, the four strikeouts he recorded were as many as he did in his first three starts combined.

Also in this issue: Orioles 5, Twins 4 | Indians 7, Royals 5 | Padres 5, Cubs 4 | Red Sox 5, A’s 3 | Diamondbacks 3, Reds 1 | Tigers 3, Mariners 2 | Rockies 10, Giants 2 | Rays 4, White Sox 1 | Marlins 6, Pirates 0 | Angels 4, Rangers 1 | Dodgers 6, Braves 1 | Yankees 6, Blue Jays 2 | Astros 4, Mets 3 | Phillies 4, Brewers 3 | Nationals 8, Cardinals 6 | Cardinals 5, Nationals 3

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I am a relatively young baseball fan. As a consequence, there are a lot of players that I missed out watching first hand. Lucky for me that baseball is a sport steeped in numbers. People are biased in their recollections, but past numbers are static and simply awaiting for us to come along and figure out ways to interpret and compare them.

Sure there are the enduring numbers stuck forever on the backs of old baseball cards, but one of the revelations that comes from diving into the rabbit hole of sabermetrics is the realization of how little those oft-quoted numbers actually tell. It’s not just the standard RBI and pitcher Wins are overrated stats mantra, but the importance of era-context that’s left to the individual consumer to internalize and adjust for, if he or she is even aware of it.

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Not again. Good Lord, not again.

It’s impossible to see Bud Selig’s announcement that Major League Baseball will assume operating control of the Los Angeles Dodgers and not remember the last time MLB made this move.

On Valentine’s Day 2002, the league did the same with the teetering Montreal Expos. By the end of the 2004 season, MLB had presided over a trade that set the Expos’ successors back several years, helped short-circuit a last-gasp playoff run, ended baseball for good in Montreal, and reminded us why a sports franchise in league hands is a catastrophe waiting to happen.

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“Wisely and slow; they stumble that run fast.”

-ye olde Bill Shakespeare (Friar Laurence from Rome and Juliet)

After waiting many hard winter months without any baseball, it seems unfair to ask us sabermagicians to wait even longer to saberize our favorite teams and players. Unfortunately, that is what we must do. One of the core principles of sabermetric thought is the value of sample size.

We cannot do as our detractors think we do: We cannot resort to looking for greater truths from lesser findings.

So, this early part of the year features a lot of articles about players’ plate discipline numbers and pitchers’ pitch f/x changes — small slivers of reality that give us clues to how the big reality will start to look.

One such thing we can look at early in the season: batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Why? BABIP stabilizes slowly, but tends to stay in a particular range for hitters (somewhere between .250 and .350, with most hitters being quite near to .300). So, early in the season, we can usually take a gander at the Luck Loserboard (those hitters with BABIPs at or beneath .200) and get a good idea about which players are poised to rebound.
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A lot of ink and keystrokes have been used over the awful start by Carl Crawford in a Red Sox uniform. After signing a massive seven-year contract worth $142 million, Crawford is being booed by the Fenway faithful less than three weeks into the season. Coming into Tuesday night’s games, the leftfielder was hitting just .133/.175/.167 in his first 63 plate appearances. A year after topping 60 extra base-hits and 40 stolen bases, he had just two of each through 14 contests.

Thus far, Terry Francona has moved Crawford around in the lineup and given him a day off to try and jumpstart his new toy; however, nothing has worked. Truth be told, no change in lineup or day off will cure what ails Crawford. As Jonah Keri would say, only time will.

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