Tigers 8, Diamondbacks 3

Moving the Needle: Miguel Cabera’s two-run single gives the Tigers the lead, +.499 WPA. For the first six innings Jhonny Peralta’s homer stood as the only run. Then the Diamondbacks broke through for two runs, taking the lead. An inning later the Tigers would get it all back. A pair of two-out walks to load the bases is a bad sign and it is made all the worse when Cabrera is the man due up. On a 2-1 pitch he pulled one into left, bringing around two runners and giving his team the lead back. Cabrera’s hit was the first in a string of five straight singles that led to a big inning for the Tigers.

Notables

Jhonny Peralta: 3 for 4, 1 HR. The homer was mentioned before, but Peralta deserves mention for his two-hit, two-RBI day as well.

Joe Saunders: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K. He takes a lot of crap, because 1) he was the most recognizable name in the Dan Haren trade last summer, and 2) he’s not good. He pitched well in this one, however, which gives good occasion to mention that Tyler Skaggs, not Saunders, was the centerpiece of the Haren trade.

Also in this issue: Orioles 7, Reds 5 | Mariners 2, Marlins 1 | Nationals 2, White Sox 1 | Rays 14, Astros 10 | Dodgers 3, Angels 2 | Royals 6, Cubs 3 | Brewers 6, Twins 2 | Yankees 6, Rockies 4 | Phillies 3, A’s 1 | Mets 8, Rangers 5 | Red Sox 4, Pirates 2 | Blue Jays 5, Cardinals – | Padres 4, Braves 1 | Giants 3, Indians 1

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Adam Dunn has been one of the most consistent players in baseball during the past eight seasons. King of the three true outcomes, Dunn could be counted on to post high walk and strikeout rates, and regularly knock the ball out of the yard. From 2004 to 2010, his raw home run totals were eerily consistent: 46, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38, 38. Now? Well, that level of consistency is unlikely to be replicated, since he’s mired in an epic slump, the likes of which he’s never experienced in his career.

Through 66 games and 275 plate appearances, Dunn is hitting a measly .173/.308/.316. His walk rate is in line with his career mark — and his OBP is still high relative to his batting average — but the slash line components sandwiching that rate are downright miserable. Given his propensity to strike out, Dunn never has been known for posting high batting averages. But these days, he’s whiffing at an otherworldly level.

While his batting average on balls in play is low at .262, this isn’t a case of a putrid success rate suppressing otherwise decent numbers. He’s struggling to make contact, and he’s not faring all that well when he does connect.

Entering the season, there were three or four sure things in baseball. Dunn posting a .240+ ISO was one of them.* At .143, though, he’s 122 points below his .265 career average. And while 275 plate appearances is still a small sample, we’re deep enough into the season to start wondering whether he’ll go back to the old Adam Dunn.

While my colleagues have attempted to determine the root cause of his issues, I’m more curious as to how frequently someone has cratered in this fashion.

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Chauncey Gardner, of no relation to Brett.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for the exact perfect number of games.

2. Very proprietary Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of this weekend’s myriad games.

3. Equal parts shabby and chic.

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Earlier this week, Josh Hamilton created some headlines when he claimed his eye color was the cause of his struggles during day games. ESPN found an optometrist who supports his theory, so maybe it’s not as crazy as it initially sounded. I immediately wanted to look at the data to see if other blue-eyed players had similar struggles in the day time, but realized that there isn’t exactly a comprehensive database of eye color for Major Leaguers.

But, the FanGraphs audience watches a lot of baseball (when they’re not staring at spreadsheets, anyway), and you guys have some observational powers, so I’d like to try crowdsourcing this. Here’s what I’m asking from you guys – in the comments, give us evidence of players who have blue eyes. Photos are probably the best option, but an article from a reputable source that references a player’s blue eyes probably works too.

If we can get a decent sized sample of players who can be confirmed to have blue eyes, we can look and see how they did in day games compared to night games, and see whether there’s anything to Josh Hamilton’s claims after all. Once we have a decent amount of names, we’ll crunch the data and report the results.

Go crowd go.

Over the last couple of weeks, ESPN has been broadcasting NCAA baseball, from the regional championships leading up to the currently-airing College World Series. There’s something that draws me to lower level baseball. Maybe it’s how bad I am at the game. Maybe it’s the fact that clutch actually might exist at lower levels. Maybe it’s the pure uncertainty — these college players are not the machines we watch at the MLB level. They make mistakes, and games and even seasons can turn on them.

But then there’s the bunts. So many bunts. I went back and took a look at the game logs for the first ten games of the College World Series to see just how many times teams tried to bunt. Keep in mind that this doesn’t even account for times when a player attempted to bunt but swung away later in the at-bat, and I also may have missed a few failed sacrifices which were classified as fielder’s choices, but I think the point gets across:

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After only throwing 37 pitches through two innings, Roy Oswalt left his start last night due to back soreness. This is definitely disappointing news for the Phillies’ starter, considering he’s already had one DL stint this year as a result of back pain, but I have to say, I wasn’t expecting this sort of a quote from him after the game:

Woh! Talk about retirement? Doesn’t that seem just a leetle bit extreme?

As it turns out, possibly not.

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Over the past decade, a tremendous amount of progress has been made in quantifying if and when managers should do everything from sacrifice bunt to issue an intentional walk, but one area that has been (at least to my knowledge) overlooked is when to pinch run. One of the main reasons pinch running hasn’t been investigated to the same degree as these other strategies is that there are a lot of moving parts to look at- how much more valuable is the pinch runner than the previous runner? Will removing the starter hurt the team’s defense? What’s the opportunity cost of losing an available bench player? While the answers to each of these questions are needed for a complete analysis of when to pinch run, there is one question we can answer relatively simply- how often can we expect the pinch runner’s spot in the order to come up again later in the game?

The more often a pinch runner can be expected to have to come to the plate, the less appealing pinch running is likely to be, as the players who are most often removed for pinch runners are generally very strong hitters (or catchers), and pinch runners are generally light hitters.

Take for example the White Sox-Twins game on April 9th of last year. Tied in the bottom of the 8th inning, the White Sox elected to have Mark Teahen pinch run for Paul Konerko following Konerko’s 1-out single. The next two White Sox hitters went down in order, and two innings later Teahen stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 10th with men on first and second and one out. Teahen grounded into a 6-4-3 double play and the White Sox went on to lose in 11 innings.

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Everyone knows that Clayton Kershaw is awesome. He’s 23 years old, throws in the mid-nineties and has a slider so breath-taking that even the McCourts can’t put a price on it. But did you know that he’s actually outhitting the competition this season?

Kershaw has a .627 OPS as a hitter, while holding opponents to a .569 OPS. He’s one of three starting pitchers with at least 30 plate appearances who have fared better in the batter’s box than the opposition. Kershaw has done it by dominating on the mound and sprinkling in some singles as a hitter. Rotation mate Chad Billingsley (.855 OPS as a hitter, .749 as a pitcher) and Chicago’s Carlos Zambrano (.822 as a hitter, .725 as a pitcher), on the other hand, are swinging big bats but giving up plenty of hits as well.

The hitting exploits of Kershaw, Billingsley and Big Z made me wonder: which pitchers, either by virtue of superb pitching and singles-hitting or so-so mound work and slugging, outhit the competition by the widest margin in a single season?

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The Baltimore Orioles’ seemingly endless Mystical Quest for .500 is, to the surprise of not many, falling short yet again in 2011. While the Orioles have had many disappointing performances this season, there have also been some bright spots. Among them has to be the offensive contributions of Adam Jones so far this season. Stardom has long been predicted for Jones, who is just 25 years old. But a look at his peripherals raises the (honest) question of just how much progress he has made.

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A few weeks ago, I took Ryan Braun with the 10th pick in FanGraphs franchise player draft. Truth be told, I was set to pick Miguel Cabrera before Niv Shah grabbed him with the pick right before mine. I briefly considered an ace like Felix Hernandez or a top prospect, but “settled” on one of the best hitters in baseball who also runs the bases well despite his defense being an all-around negative.

In addition to his durability (150-plus games in each of the past three seasons) and past production (.307/.364/.554 from 2007-2010 with an average of over 70 extra-base hits), I also considered Braun’s improvements at the plate in 2011. His current .417 wOBA is the fourth-best in the National League and would be the highest-single season mark for him since his smashing 2007 debut (.422 wOBA in 113 games).

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