Again, sorry for technical difficulties with the graphs.

Angels 6, Marlins 5

Moving the Needle: Mark Trumbo’s single puts the Angels ahead in extras, +.361 WPA. While Trumbo’s single deserves attention, it was really a sequence in the late innings that defined this game. Down 4-3 with runners on first and third with two outs in the seventh, Hanley Ramirez drove in the tying run. The Angels took the lead back a half inning later on a double and a single, and then the Marlins got a Mike Stanton triple and a DeWayne Wise single to tie it back up in the next half inning. The ninth went by without incident, which gave the Angels an opportunity to strike in the 10th. Bobby Abreu started off with a walk, and, after advancing on a groundout, scored on Trumbo’s single that snuck by Hanley.

Notables

Mike Stanton: 3 for 5, 1 3B. Again, I ask why he is batting behind Greg Dobbs. Sometimes lineup order makes so little sense.

Howie Kendrick: 2 for 5, 1 3B. Speaking of batting order, he hit sixth while Vernon Wells hit fifth and Torii Hunter hit third.

Also in this issue: Padres 5, Red Sox 1 | Braves 5, Blue Jays 1 | White Sox 4, Cubs 3 | Yankees 4, Reds 2 | Reds 10, Yankees 2 | Indians 4, Rockies 3 | Diamondbacks 3, Royals 2 | Angels 6, Marlins 5 | Astros 5, Rangers 3 | Tigers 7, Dodgers 5 | Rays 6, Brewers 3 | Nationals 2, Mariners 1 | Mets 3, A’s 2 | Pirates 5, Orioles 4 | Phillies 4, Cardinals 0 | Giants 5, Twins 1

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Throughout the first two months of the season, no player personified “regression candidate” more than Josh Tomlin. His ERA looked great, but nearly every peripheral suggested Tomlin was going to fall apart as the season progressed. But Tomlin has remained an effective pitcher. It hasn’t been all luck either- Tomlin’s xFIP currently sits at 3.72. Now that Tomlin’s peripherals seem to justify his performance, it’s time to take a look at how he’s been able to succeed this season.
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Episode Seventy-Eight
In which the panel is at a loss for words — and other things, too.

Headlines
The Dodger Situation — Nearly Comprehended!
The Albert Pujols Situation — Considered Briefly!
The Franchise Player Draft — Squabbled Over!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Boss of Us
Joe Pawlikowski, Crack Baseball Analyst
Matt Klaassen, Other Pod Guest

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 55 min play time.)

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After being optioned to Triple-A Colorado Springs, Dexter Fowler is back in the minors trying to show the Rockies that he can still help them win baseball games. I honestly have no idea whether he helped or hurt his cause last night. Below is a breakdown of his six plate appearances in their 5-4 extra innings victory over Tacoma:

1st inning: Walk
3rd inning: Walk
5th inning: Walk
7th inning: Walk
11th inning: Walk
13th inning: Line out

By drawing walks in each of his first five plate appearances, Fowler tied the PCL record for most walks in a single game. His OBP for the evening was a stellar .833, even after he got tired of free passes and swung at the first pitch he saw in his final at-bat. Anyone who can get on base five times in a ballgame is helping their team win, right?

Err, maybe not. Here’s what else Fowler did after reaching base last night:

1st inning: Doubled off first base on a fly out to right field.
3rd inning: Thrown out trying to advance to third base on a single to left field.
5th inning: Picked off first base by pitcher.
7th inning: Out at second on a double play groundout.
11th inning: Drama Free!

Despite reaching base five times, Fowler never advanced farther than second base safely, and he made three outs on the bases through his own actions. We can’t hold him responsible for Ian Stewart’s GIDP in the seventh, of course, the first three outs are clearly on him, as is the final out when he actually swung the bat. Once you account for baserunning, Fowler didn’t do much to help his team all that much after all.

Since beginning his stint in Triple-A (which began as a rehab assignment but is now more permanent), Fowler is just 3 for 34, and the five walks last night only served to increase his OPS for Colorado Springs to .343. Not exactly demanding a spot back in the big leagues so far; in fact, I’d guess that Fowler is well on his way to being a “change of scenery” player, and he might be trade bait for the Rockies this summer.

NOTE: This data may not include every player, only those with recorded heights.

In my two recent articles, concerning little people in baseball and east Asians in baseball, many commentors got hung up on the height issues.

“What about just short people?” said some. “Maybe they are a present inefficiency? Why do you keep ignoring short people!?”

Others asked: “How do you expect China to produce legitimate talent? I watch Southpark. I know that Chinese people are too short for baseball.”

Well, okay, let’s explore these issues.

Chinese People Are Too Short to Play Baseball
This is wrong. And not just racistly, but legitimately too.

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Every season, there’s one pitcher whose results completely undersell his skills as a pitcher. This year, it’s Zack Greinke. Through his first nine starts, Greinke’s strikeout to walk ratio sat at 70 to nine. Naturally, then Greinke’s ERA was 5.23 entering Tuesday night’s start against Tampa Bay. Those around Milwaukee started to wonder about the supposed ace, trying to find reasons for his failures, ranging from just losing his control in big spots to the old standby, his history of mental issues.

Last night, Greinke finally found his ace zone, putting together easily his best start of the season. He went seven innings against a Rays lineup loaded with left-handed batters, striking out ten, inducing 11 ground balls in 16 balls in play, and now allowing a single walk. Such fantastic peripheral numbers are no stranger to Greinke on this young season. He struck out ten batters in his previous start against the Chicago Cubs, but allowed eight runs. This time, the results fit the peripherals: the Rays only managed one run on four hits.

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Check out this line from Madison Bumgarner’s start last night: 0.1 IP, 9 hits, 8 earned runs, 1 strikeout.

Holy implosions, Batman! Not only did this start cause countless fantasy owners to collapse in grief, it also solidified Bumgarner a spot in the record book; as multiple people have pointed out, Bumgarner became the first starter in the live-ball era to allow nine hits while only recording one out. And here I was, thinking that Vin Mazzaro had already used up this year’s allotment of “historically bad ineffectiveness.”

So in light of this performance, here’s the question I want to tackle: why was Bumgarner so bad last night? Overall, he’s been a great pitcher so far this year — while his ERA is a tad high now (4.00), his 2.90 FIP and 3.47 xFIP both speak to his excellent peripherals. His strikeout rate is slightly up this season and his K/BB ratio is only slightly lower, and he’s managed to generate more swinging strikes while limiting his homeruns allowed. The biggest reason that his ERA is so inflated this season appears to be his .333 BABIP — hitters are simply getting more hits off him, as we saw in dramatic fashion last night.

As Dave Cameron pointed out in a very timely post on BABIP yesterday, there are three main variables that go into influencing a pitcher’s BABIP: good or bad defense, luck, and pitching. While saberists have historically focused on “luck” as the main reason for variations in BABIP, the truth is that all three of these variables are constantly interacting with one another — and not only that, but bad pitching is to blame more than many of us normally admit.

Want a prime example of these interacting factors? Let’s take a play-by-play look at Bumgarner’s start yesterday.

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We all knew this day was coming. There was a notion that maybe this time it would be different; maybe with the new stadium in place the Marlins could afford to keep Hanley Ramirez and his rising salary. But even with that in mind his eventual trade seemed inevitable. It would be a tough sell, of course, as it is any time a team trades its franchise player. The current circumstances might make it a bit easier.

The Marlins struggles lately are well documented. After a hot start that had them 10 games over .500 in late May, they’ve dropped 22 of their last 26 and currently sit in the NL East cellar. Things can only get better, but so much has gone wrong this season that it’s unreasonable to expect a full return to their early season performance. The team’s failures, combined with Ramirez’s own struggles, could make it easier for the Marlins to part ways with him and the remainder of his contract. It might not happen at the deadline, but it certainly could happen following this season.

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Alliteration Adds Allure!

You know who is probably pretty happy about all the attention the current McCourt/Dodgers mess is getting? Fred Wilpon. He’s so shy he’s probably glad to have something to take attention (at least temporarily) off of the tremendous work he’s done with the Mets and the finances of Americans in general. But you know who should be happy for both of them? Former Montreal Expos and current Florida Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria. Sure, the Marlins have been very bad lately, and changed managers yet again. But hey, Jack McKeon is back and he’s even older, fun! Loria hasn’t severely damaged his franchise the way McCourt has (Congratulations! What high standards we have!), so McCourt is clearly worse at this point. But Loria is sort of like the Yankees of current bad baseball owners. The Yankees aren’t going to win every year, but they still have the most flags. (I’m just talking about baseball here. If we’re talking pro sports owners in general, yes, Donald Sterling, we see you pointing at the scoreboard.) But listing Loria’s many faults isn’t my primary purpose here today, but to point at why the Marlins’ situation irritates me so much: not only do they refuse to capitalize on talent, but in some ways they are a “model franchise” for Bud Selig’s MLB.

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