The Chicago Cubs general manager, Jim Hendry, has been described by many as a lame duck, but team owner Tom Ricketts may want to get out the hunting rifle now before the situation deteriorates any further.

Hendry took over the Cubs GM position midway through the 2002 season and has never quite assembled the impressive major league team comparable to the impressive farm system he built in the late 1990s. Once touted for assembling a farm system that included future stars like Corey Patterson, Mark Prior, Eric Patterson, Felix Pie, Rich Hill, and (hey, mildly positive ones!) Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano, Hendry is now widely considered a neither great nor terrible GM.

His on-the-field product reflects that dichotomy:

His great times (2008, 2004) have been great; his good times (2003, 2007, 2009) have been okay; and his bad times (2005, 2006, 2010, 2011) have been numerous.

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There’s no denying how excellent a story the Pittsburgh Pirates are this year, spending a few days in first and sitting only a half-game back in the NL Central only a year removed from a depressing 58-win season. There’s also no denying this run wouldn’t be possible without some help from an immensely flawed division. The Brewers have been sub-replacement at shortstop and third base, the Cardinals at shorstop and in the bullpen. The Reds have fewer glaring holes, but have been weak at shortstop, left field, and in the starting rotation.

It doesn’t matter how it’s happened, though. What matters is that the Pirates sit in the thick of a pennant race for the first time in years. The black and yellow are not without flaws of their own — specifically, the Pirates have been at or below replacement level at both first base and third base, and likely need to rectify this situation to have much of a chance at the division title. The Pirates have been active in the trade market according to the rumor mill, but one solution may be sitting in Triple-A right now. That solution is Pedro Alvarez, who recently returned from a quadriceps injury and is tearing up the International League to the tune of a .424 wOBA.

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Last night, Stephen Drew broke his ankle and will be out for at least the rest of this season. It’s horrible timing for the D-backs, with both J.J. Hardy and now Jose Reyes off the market. So what are the D-backs to do? Figuring out who they are is a good start.

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“Even the smallest person can change the course of the future.” J.R.R. Tolkien

By most accounts, Jose Altuve did not have the most impressive debut for the Houston Astros on Wednesday. The 21-year-old second baseman stepped into the void left by Jeff Keppinger’s move to San Francisco and… well, he didn’t fill that void. Aggressive in each of his at-bats, he went one for five with a strikeout. The fact that he was in the major leagues at all was a bit of an upset, however: Altuve is only five foot seven, and perhaps generously listed as such.

With the Astros not headed to the post season and looking to see what they have for the future, Altuve is in line for at least 200 plate appearances the rest of the way. The team is likely to give him enough leash to finish the year no matter how he fares. Only 22 middle infielders that were his height or shorter have ever accomplished that feat in their first year. But how did those comp players fare at the plate? And how did those numbers compare to the general middle infield population? That might help us manage our expectations for the diminutive one.

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SIERA’s updated version was unveiled Monday at FanGraphs, and as part of the release, I’ve been taking readers through its ERA-estimation process. I’ve written about SIERA’s ability to predict BABIP and HR/FB, and then I broke down its formula and structure. But like any good analysis, it needed to be tested against other estimators.

So far, the results are pretty conclusive. In fact, SIERA might be the best tool yet to help us understand and better-interpret pitching performance. Read the rest of this entry »

Just minutes ago, during the Cardinals-Mets game currently unfolding in Queens, Albert Pujols hit a home run off of Jonathon Niese. The home run is notable because (a) it came at the end of a nine-pitch at-bat and (b) SNY’s Gary Cohen noted after the foul ball you see GIF’d and expertly embedded above that good hitters are good at fouling off two-strike pitches.

In fact, Cohen’s words were prescient, as, two pitches later, Pujols did this to the baseball:

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Let’s get this out of the way first: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are pitching like Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in their prime. They’re Spahn and Sain and a whole lot of pain.

They’re also not that far above, say, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. Yet the Phillies sit well above the Giants, and ahead of every other team in baseball, with a 61-36 record.

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Mets 6, Cardinals 5

Moving the Needle: Angel Pagan walks off with a homer, +.430 WPA. It was a hard-fought battle for the Mets, who found themselves down 4-0 after two and a half. They halved that lead in the bottom half, though, and then tied the score with a two-run shot in the fifth. They then traded runs with the Cards in the eighth, which ultimately sent the game to extras. With one out in the 10th, Angel Pagan lifted the first pitch he saw deep into the right field seats for the game-winning run.

Notables

Carlos Beltran: 1 for 4, 1 HR, 1 BB. Pumping up that trade value again, I see. His two-run shot tied the game in the fifth.

Matt Holliday: 3 for 4, 1 2B. He drove in two and scored two

Also in this issue: Angels 9, Rangers 8 | Brewers 5, Diamondbacks 4 | Red Sox 4, Orioles 0 | Phillies 9, Cubs 1 | A’s 7, Tigers 5 | Rockies 3, Braves 2 | Royals 2, White Sox 1 | Padres 14, Marlins 3 | Twins 7, Indians 5 | Astros 3, Nationals 2 | Yankees 4, Rays 0 | Blue Jays 11, Mariners 6 | Reds 3, Pirates 1 | Dodgers 1, Giants 0

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Though they currently lead the wide-open AL Central by just a half game, the Detroit Tigers showed Wednesday that they aren’t willing to stand pat by acquiring Wilson Betemit from the Kansas City Royals. Betemit may not have been the “sexiest” name on the market, but he represents a massive upgrade over Brandon Inge; the Tigers’ current starter at third base. In a division still up for grabs, this move could be the push the Tigers need to stay on top.
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