Archive for August, 2011

Zobrist vs Fielder: A Position Adjustment Primer

Yesterday on Twitter, Buster Olney had some thoughts on WAR, and specifically, the way it values middle-of-the-diamond players compared to first basemen. A few selections from his comments:

#1: “Love advanced metrics,but anybody find something a little skewed to 2B/SS/CF? Ben Zobrist No. 6 overall, ahead of all first basemen, McCann?”

#2: “Zobrist, Victorino, Howie Kendrick and Yunel Escobar all ahead of Prince Fielder in WAR. You do wonder if positional adjustments too steep.”

#3: “If you asked 30 GMs who they would pay the most among these players–Victorino, Yunel, Kendrick, Fielder–off ’11 stats,30 would say Fielder.”

There were a few others sprinkled in there as well, but you get the general point. The common wisdom in baseball has been that run producers are the most valuable players in the game, and since WAR does not line up with that assessment, Buster is questioning whether WAR is wrong.

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Sunday Night Baseball Live Blog – 8/7/11


One Night Only: Game Previews for August 7th


An elderly, and even more dominant, Zack Greinke.

Featured Game
Milwaukee (7) at Houston (4) | 14:05 ET
If Zack Greinke’s (10) strikeout rate continues at the pace he’s established so far over the course of his career, he’ll strike out every batter he faces in the year 2055.

Audio Feed: Brewers Radio.

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.6.

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One Night Only: Game Previews for August 6th


Today’s edition of One Night Only is prepared to shock you in your mind.

Featured Game
Atlanta (6) at New York Nationals (5) | 19:10 ET
• Unless you’re a Met fan or own him in a fantasy league, there’s a strong chance you’re unaware of how well Jonathon Niese’s (9) 2011 is going.
• Which, I say that mostly because I, personally, was unaware of how well Niese’s 2011 was going.
• By way of illustration, here are fives names after Niese’s on the xFIP leaderboard: Justin Masterson, Jon Lester, C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver, Josh Beckett.
• Weird and great, right?
• Also weird and great: most every available photo of Klaus Kinski.

Watch: New York Television.

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.7.

Note: Nate Eovaldi will be making his major-league debut for the Dodgers. Eovaldi at Double-A Chattanooga: 103.0 IP, 8.65 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 0.26 HR/9, 3.05 FIP.

Note: Zach Stewart, and not Jake Peavy, will start for the White Sox.

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Don’t Suspend A-Rod if He Didn’t Break the Law

UPDATE: It appears that MLB agrees.

Every so often, like most baseball writers, I look at myself in the mirror and ask myself an important question: Why am I not writing about Alex Rodriguez? Thankfully, the richest Yankee provided me with ample opportunity this week, as Major League Baseball announced that they were once again investigating Rodriguez for his alleged participation in illegal high-stakes poker games. This isn’t the first time that the league has considered Rodriguez’s poker habits: back in 2005, the Yankees and MLB cautioned him about his involvement, informing him that it could be negative for his image and worrying about the propriety of his gambling large sums of money with people who may also wager on baseball.

While the games may have been illegal, it’s not clear that Rodriguez himself broke any laws by merely playing. (The relevant laws depend on where the games took place; Alex is alleged to have played a couple games in California, but RadarOnline.com has also published allegations that Rodriguez attempted to organize his own game in Miami in 2009.) The trouble is that, of all the potential illegal activities Rodriguez could have been connected to, there are few so troubling to baseball as gambling, which has a 90-year history of being baseball’s cardinal sin, inspiring baseball commissioners to overpunish those suspected of gambling for nearly a century.
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Sixpence and None the Richer in The Bronx

The Yankees currently have six starting pitchers. Two are highly paid, two are hardened veterans, and two are on the young side, at least by comparison to their rotation mates. As a unit, they have compiled the sixth-best WAR among starters, but despite that, where each member fits in the rotation behind CC Sabathia is up for debate. Which one of the five should move to the bullpen or be demoted? Or, should the Yankees run out six starters? With the Yankees currently riding a seven-game winning streak as they march into the Fens this weekend, it’s a question that Joe Girardi will likely backburner for a few more days. While he’s procrastinating, it gives us time to debate the merits of each option. Let’s go through each, starting with the longest odds. Read the rest of this entry »


One Night Only: Game Previews for August 5th


¡Llama ya!

Featured Game
Cleveland (9) at Texas (8) | 20:05 ET
• Tonight marks Ubaldo Jimenez’s (7) debut for the Cleveland Indians, after they (i.e. Cleveland) traded four minor leaguers (including top-100 prospects Drew Pomeranz and Alex White) to Colorado for the right-hander.
• If you’re the sort of person who’d care to read analysis about this sort of thing, you can do that at this very site.
• Regard: work by Eric Seidman, Steve Slowinski, and FanGraphs’ most handsome author.
• If you’re the sort of person who doesn’t care to read, we can dictate these same works to you over the phone.
• Just call 1-900-Hot-Nerd. Nerds are standing by.*

*Don’t do that and, no, they’re not.

Watch: Texas Television (with the radio call by KESN’s Eric Nadel, if possible).

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.5.

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The AL MVP Debate

With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror and a million baseball journalists needing something to talk about, the AL MVP discussion has been pushed front and center this week. It doesn’t hurt that there are about 14 Red Sox players in consideration for the award, either – the Boston media is notoriously loud, and interesting news stories about their team often tend to filter down to the national level.

In some ways, the current field of candidates is crowded; there are legitimately a lot of guys having seasons that can justify MVP votes in a normal season. In other ways, though, the various candidates are segregated into bins of candidate types that are not all that alike, and make it fairly easy for most people to pick a favorite based on their own perspective of what the MVP is.

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Reviewing the Top 10 Prospect Lists: AL East

This article wraps up a look back at the pre-season Top 10 prospect lists here at FanGraphs. You can read the other reviews: NL West | NL Central | NL East | AL West | AL Central.

Tampa Bay Rays
1. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
2. Matt Moore, LHP
3. Desmond Jennings, OF
4. Chris Archer, RHP
5. Jake McGee, LHP
6. Josh Sale, OF
7. Alex Colome, RHP
8. Alex Torres, LHP
9. Justin O’Conner, C
10. Hak-Ju Lee, SS

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Jason Kipnis, on 14 Memorable Days

Jason Kipnis has had a memorable start to his big-league career. Called up on July 21, Cleveland’s top prospect delivered a bases-loaded walk-off single for his first hit — and he’s been making history ever since. The 24-year-old second baseman hit home runs in four consecutive games, a feat never before achieved in a rookie’s first two weeks.

Kipnis talked on Wednesday about his never-to-be-forgotten 14 days just hours before hitting home run No. 4, at Fenway Park.

——

Kipnis, on his first two weeks in the big leagues: “It’s been hectic and it’s been crazy. At the same time it hasn’t been anything out of the ordinary. I think I’ve done a good job of slowing the game down as fast as I could, to the point where it’s just baseball. I haven’t over-hyped anything. I haven’t been overwhelmed by the fact that I’m in Fenway Park. That said, with the ballparks I’m playing in — and the fans — it’s unbelievable.

“The first game was a blur. It went by really fast and it didn’t feel like a real baseball game to me. Now things have slowed down and I’m starting to get my swing back a little bit. Things are starting to get better.”

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