Reviewing the Top 10 Prospect Lists: AL East

by
August 5, 2011

This article wraps up a look back at the pre-season Top 10 prospect lists here at FanGraphs. You can read the other reviews: NL West | NL Central | NL East | AL West | AL Central.

Tampa Bay Rays
1. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
2. Matt Moore, LHP
3. Desmond Jennings, OF
4. Chris Archer, RHP
5. Jake McGee, LHP
6. Josh Sale, OF
7. Alex Colome, RHP
8. Alex Torres, LHP
9. Justin O’Conner, C
10. Hak-Ju Lee, SS

All five analysts (Baseball America, Goldstein, Law, Sickels, and myself) ranked one-through-three absolutely the same. Unfortunately, both BA and Sickels went to print with their lists before the Matt Garza deal occurred, which brought in both Archer and Lee (and others). Both Colome and Torres have had fairly quiet seasons, but they’ve held their own in 2011. Drew Vettleson almost made the 2011 list, but he’ll definitely be there in 2012. Two other 2010 draft picks – Josh Sale and Justin O’Conner – have had slow starts to their pro careers, but they’re still young.

Boston Red Sox
1. Jose Iglesias, SS
2. Drake Britton, LHP
3. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP
4. Josh Reddick, OF
5. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP
6. Felix Doubront, LHP
7. Kolbrin Vitek, 3B
8. Lars Anderson, 1B
9. Oscar Tejeda, SS/2B
10. Ryan Lavarnway, C/1B

I took a bit of heat for ranking the organization so high (11th overall) prior to the 2011 season, especially after the club sent top prospects (Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes, Casey Kelly) over to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez. I did, though, explain that they were ranked so high due to impressive depth beyond the Top 10 list. That depth has been on display this season while other Top 10 prospects have wilted (Britton, Pimentel). Only John Sickels and I ranked Lavarnway on Top 10 lists this past off-season with Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein, and Keith Law docking him marks for his perceived inability to catch at the big league level. As he’s shown this season, his bat is probably good enough to be a starting first baseman. Will Middlebrooks was one of a few players (Brandon Workman, Garin Cecchini) who received consideration for the back-end of the list. The athletic third baseman should be near the top for the 2012 list.

New York Yankees
1. Jesus Montero, C/1B
2. Manny Banuelos, LHP
3. Gary Sanchez, C
4. Dellin Betances, RHP
5. Austin Romine, C
6. Hector Noesi, RHP
7. Eduardo Nunez, SS
8. Slade Heathcott, OF
9. Ivan Nova, RHP
10. Brett Marshall, RHP

This list wasn’t as easy to do as you might think. The Yankees organization currently lacks the plethora of high-ceiling talents that it’s boasted in the past – plus Yankees prospects tend to be some of the more overrated (not to say they don’t have great prospects). With that said, there are a lot of interesting names that should help fill out the big league roster for years to come. The organization has some of the best catching depth in the minors… even if you write off Montero as a first baseman or DH. Sanchez has also had his defensive struggles but those can be mostly chalked up to youthful errors. I remain a Romine supporter despite the fact more and more people are jumping off the bandwagon. In the outfield, Heathcott started the year off with a bang but then ran into some trouble and things quieted down for him, but he was recently promoted to high-A ball. I definitely felt some pressure to include Andrew Brackman on the Top 10 list but in hindsight holding to my guns was a smart decision; he’s been pretty bad this season. It helped that it was Reed MacPhail who actually wrote up the Yankees report and he felt the same way about omitting Brackman.

Toronto Blue Jays
1. Kyle Drabek, RHP
2. Brett Lawrie, 3B
3. J.P. Arencibia, C
4. Deck McGuire, RHP
5. Carlos Perez, C
6. Zach Stewart, RHP
7. Travis d’Arnaud, C
8. Asher Wojciechowski, RHP
9. Aaron Sanchez, RHP
10. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS

It’s been an up-and-down year for many of the prospects on this Top 10 list – just ask Drabek. Say what you will about Arencibia’s meager batting average and low on-base percentage but he is an almost average defensive catcher with the highest isolated slugging percentage (.235) amongst big league catchers. Atlanta’s Brian McCann is second, about 30 points behind the rookie. I ranked Arencibia more aggressively than any other analyst – although he appeared on each list – and I believe he’ll be a solid contributor throughout his career. Staying with backstops, I ranked Perez ahead of d’Arnaud believing he had a higher overall ceiling but perhaps I was wrong. d’Arnaud has looked great in double-A while Perez struggled early on with his offence in the Midwest League. His defense has also been a question mark. The bottom of the Jays prospect list has had a tough year. Hechevarria has a lot of people talking about his Gold Glove caliber defense but there are huge question marks on his bat thanks to his overly aggressive approach. Wojciechowski was considered a bit of a rawer college pitcher and he’s shown that his secondary stuff is lacking. After a nice debut in 2010, Sanchez got off to a slow start in ’11 when he struggled with both his command and control but he’s come on strong late in the minor league season.

Baltimore Orioles
1. Zach Britton, LHP
2. Manny Machado, SS
3. LJ Hoes, 2B
4. Xavier Avery, OF
5. Dan Klein, RHP
6. Jonathan Schoop, SS
7. Ryan Adams, 2B
8. Mychal Givens, SS/2B
9. Wynn Pelzer, RHP
10. Bobby Bundy, RHP

The inclusion of Bundy on this list really makes me happy – as he didn’t appear on any other Top 10 lists. Slowed by injuries earlier in his career, I remained a supporter throughout and am glad to see him really break out in 2011 – just as his younger brother is set to join him in pro ball (save for a last-minute shocker). Overall, this was a pretty weak list and it hasn’t gotten much better as the year has progressed. Both Avery and Hoes have been on a bit of the fast-track and reached double-A in 2011 at the age of 21. Avery has struggled with his ability to get on-base, mainly due to his lack of patience, while Hoes has looked better at the higher level than he did earlier in the season in high-A ball. You cannot fully blame the organization for the lack of development among its prospects; a lot of players fell victim to injuries, including players that made other Top 10 lists like Trent Mummey and Ryan Berry (What, an injured former Rice University pitcher?!).





 

Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

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RC
12 years ago

I think Iglesias as #1 in Boston’s system is absurd. He’s still young, so hes got time to improve, but until he shows any ability to hit, it doesn’t matter how good his defense is.

2
Nick V
12 years ago
Reply to  RC

I tend to agree, he hasn’t really ever shown an ability to hit his level, and yet the Sox kept promoting him. I don’t understand this. It’s not like the groundballs and double plays he’s fielding are any more difficult in the upper levels, so he can further tune and progress his defense in the lower levels. But he can’t hit AAA pitching, there’s really no reason to be up there. .526 OPS in AAA this year, and it’s not like he exactly proved himself at AA last year (.672 OPS). He’s young and has a TON to learn about hitting. He belongs in A ball…

1
Yirmiyahu
12 years ago
Reply to  Nick V

It’s the Red Sox philosophy. All of their minor league affiliates are the youngest, or nearly the youngest, in their leagues. The idea is that, if a prospect isn’t struggling, he’s probably not learning/adapting/adjusting. In Iglesias’ case, he signed a major league contract, so they’re even a bit more aggressive than usual.

Iglesias’ glove is major league ready, and they wanted to get his bat up to speed as soon as possible. His biggest problem is plate discipline and recognizing breaking pitches. He’s not going to easily learn that in A-ball.

Anyway, he’s been improving his discipline all year, so the placement is working. In his first 19 games at AAA, Iglesias had a 17/2 K/BB, and the result was a .232/.264/.232/.496 line. In his last 19 games, he’s had a 10/6 K/BB, and the result is a .270/.343/.317/.660 line.

0
Nick V
12 years ago
Reply to  Nick V

I guess using his last 17 games is somewhat useful. He even has an extra base hit in there – one of his five on the season (all doubles). And using perhaps his best 17 game stretch of the season (granted, the most recent) still results in a .660 OPS? When that represents progress, you’re not talking about a guy who belongs at that level.

As for “recognizing breaking pitches” being his biggest problem…isn’t that basically the case for almost every prospect? Also, isn’t lack of power a problem? I really don’t see a single thing about his offensive game that is AAA ready. I’m not convinced he’s A+ ready with the bat. I don’t think that the rationalizations I’ve heard for putting him at AAA right now make any more sense for him than they would for any other prospect. He’s 21 years old, let him develop…

1
Nick V
12 years ago
Reply to  Nick V

Sorry, I see you said 19 and not 17 games. All still applies…

0
Yirmiyahu
12 years ago
Reply to  Nick V

Look, no matter what level he was at, if Iglesias had a .700+ OPS, the Sox would promote him. That’s how they work. They don’t view a prospect struggling as a bad thing.

You said, “I don’t think that the rationalizations I’ve heard for putting him at AAA right now make any more sense for him than they would for any other prospect.” First of all, to a large degree, it’s not that Iglesias is unique, it’s that the Red Sox push all of their top prospects like this. Last year their top prospect, 20-year-old Casey Kelly, had a 5.31 ERA in AA, and everyone was complaining in the same way you are right now.

The Red Sox have a unique philosophy, and it’s succeeded in the past. Iglesias is being pushed even more than usual because he’s on an MLB deal and his glove is MLB-ready. Simple as that.

0
Nick V
12 years ago
Reply to  Nick V

I have no problem with pushing prospects aggressively. I understand the Sox’ approach to player development. It’s my opinion that Iglesias would be over his head in AA as well. I’m a big Sox fan and have a lot of respect for the player development system, but I’m not going to appeal to their authority in a “If the Red Sox do it, it’s the best thing to do” kind of way.

But if you’re referring to their past successes, I mean, Pedroia, Lowrie, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Lester, Papelbon…all these guys showed success at a level before they were promoted. None of them was promoted recklessly. Christ, Iglesias was promoted to the MAJORS this year.

Do you think that Casey Kelly, after last year, would have been promoted to AAA if he were still in the system? Do Brentz and Middlebrooks and every other top prospect in the system clearly belong in AAA? Or are they fine where they are because the they’re the Red Sox and they know what they’re doing?

0
Al Skorupa
12 years ago
Reply to  Nick V

@Yirmiyahu – Agree with all of this, and would add that as a Cuban free swinger, the Sox likely felt it was especially important to put Iglesias at a level where he couldn’t succeed despite his bad habits.

0
Nick V
12 years ago
Reply to  Nick V

Just as an update, since we were using the oh-so-useful “Last 19 Games” sample, in his last 19 games he’s got a .218/.306/.255/.561 line. He has 6 walks in that span though, so he’ll be ready for the majors in no time…

0
Randy
12 years ago
Reply to  RC

The rankings are from the offseason and he showed progress in that regard last year before the drop off this year.

1
Nick V
12 years ago
Reply to  Randy

Well I would have complained about ranking him this high, but I am aware that these aren’t updates (just reviews). A lot of people had him this high going into this year. My problem is that he’s pretty clearly being mishandled…

0
TylerTheCreator
12 years ago
Reply to  Randy

“My problem is that he’s pretty clearly being mishandled…”

This isn’t true…I mean I guess it’s debatable, but it certainly isn’t cut and dry. Iglesias did hit last year, and he showed real progress in the AFL. His AAA spot seemed aggresive but not absurd. I don’t see how sending him down to A ball is going to do anything for him. It’s not like he needs to “gain confidence”, he needs to face advanced pitching and make adjustments. If he can’t make those adjustments, he won’t be a MLB player, simple as that. Sending him down to A ball to pad his stats isn’t doing anything for his development…I’d say the Red Sox player development system works about as well as any team in baseball so that old “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” applies.

0
Nick V
12 years ago
Reply to  Randy

This is another, “if the sox do it, it’s good” defense. I don’t necessarily advocate sending him to A ball, although I do think that that’s where any other player with his offensive skill set would be. I don’t understand how this “he needs to struggle” thing applies to Iglesias but not to other prospects. As you pointed out, the Sox’ philosophy has worked in the past, but it seems obvious to me that the decision to promote a .672 OPS from AA to AAA, resulting in a .526 OPS this year was clearly a wrong decision.

Maybe he learned everything he could have learned in AA. But extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence…

1
gabriel
12 years ago
Reply to  RC

What I found perplexing was that Iglesias was ranked, here and elsewhere, so much higher than Hechavarria, especially given how similar they are. Both are great defensive shortstops, both struggle with the bat, but at least Hech has some extra-base ability.

2
Jose Iglesias
12 years ago
Reply to  RC

I have impressive bat speed. When I get my timing down pat, my slugging percentage will rise and most of you will look stupid when you underrated me. I’m the second coming of Ozzie Smith, according to the Boston Hype Machine.

0