When you think of the San Francisco Giants bullpen, you think of Brian Wilson. Since assuming the closer’s role four years ago, Wilson has been the face – and the beard – of relief pitching in the Bay Area. That recognition comes with merit since the right-hander has been one of the better relief pitchers in baseball and his save totals (160 since 2008) shows he is well-equipped with the closer’s mentality. While he has done a great job closing the door, the pitchers bridging the gap from starting pitcher to Wilson has been as good, if not better.

As a unit, Bruce Bochy’s bunch has been a top-3 bullpen this season. More specifically, he has deployed a lefty/righty combination of high-leverage relievers to lock down the innings prior to his closer. From the left side, Javier Lopez has been quite the pickup for the Giants since joining the club in late 2010. As an alumni of the FanGraphs’ school of higher leverage, Lopez has settled in as one of the more dependable lefties in relief.

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Maybe there’s is a better way to predict how well a hitter is doing? Rather than glancing at his OBP and SLG and OPS or his wOBA and wRC+ and then mentally calibrating that number according to an inflated or deflated BABIP, maybe we can find a simple means of combining the key elements into a single formula.

Well, I believe I have stumbled onto just such a formula.

Th’other day, when I was trying to solve the mystery of the Tampa Bay Rays and their utterly broken run expectancy chart, I began ruminating about the relationship between walks, strikeouts, and an ability to create runs. You see, the Rays tend towards true outcomes: lotsa walks, lotsa strikeouts. So, for some strange reason — be it bad luck or bad hitter-type chemistry — the Rays seem to have an inability of reaching a standard run expectancy with the bases loaded.

Anyway, I began to investigate this trifle and produced an interesting comparison:

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Ozzie Guillen is not a happy man. He hasn’t been all season, really. His team figured to play a big part in the AL Central race this year, but instead they’re the poster boys for the division’s mediocrity. The pitching staff has been fine¹, but the offense has fallen far afoul of expectations². Still, only five of their regulars are currently hitting worse than their ZiPS projections. Of those, one is close, one is a rookie, and one is performing about in line with 2010³. The Sox offensive deficiency stems mainly from two culprits who have dragged down the entire unit: Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. It’s because of these two that the Sox aren’t enjoying more of a competition with the Tigers for the NL Central crown.

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Sometimes baseball analysis is similar to semantics. Define Brandon Allen one way, and he’s got a bright future despite some early struggles. Define the 25-year-old first baseman from a different direction, and the odds are incredibly stacked against him.

Let’s de-emphasize Allen’s 209 plate appearances so far. Even if those plate appearances had all happened in one season — which they haven’t — we’d only barely be looking at a reliable sample for his in-season strikeout rate, and we’d know next to nothing about his power.

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Curd!

Featured Game
Philadelphia (3) at San Francisco (6) | 22:15 ET
• Among the things I’d either (a) known and forgotten or (b) never known in the first place, one of them is that Madison Bumgarner (10), owner of a 3.22 SIERA and 3.15 xFIP and 83 xFIP-, is only 21 years old.
• Another one is to use the second person plural (vous, as opposed to tu) when speaking to strangers in France.
• Of course, the exact consequences of neglecting to do so aren’t entirely clear.
• Then again, neither are the consequences of most things.
• Like eating fried cheese curds, for example. Or any kind of cheese curd, for also example.

Watch: Comcast SportsNet Bay Area — with Jon Miller’s gold-embossed radio call, if possible.

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.1.

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Red Sox 4, Indians 3

Moving the Needle: Jacoby Ellsbury walks off with a homer, +.461 WPA. It seemed as though they were tied all game. The Red Sox did have a 3-2 lead for a few innings, but in the seventh the Indians tied it up. They remained tied until the bottom of the ninth. With two outs Ellsbury got a hold of one and drove it out to deep center. Over the wall it went, and again he played the hero for the Sox.

Notables

Jason Kipnis: 1 for 2, 1 HR, 2 BB. He’s had a nice little start to his career: 8 for 33 with two doubles, four homers, and three walks.

Also in this issue: Twins 11, Angels 4 | Phillies 8, Rockies 6 | Astros 5, Reds 4 | Yankees 18, White Sox 7 | Brewers 10, Cardinals 5 | Tigers 5, Rangers 4 | Braves 6, Nationals 4 | Royals 6, Orioles 2 | Cubs 1, Pirates 0 | Mariners 7, A’s 4 | Padres 3, Dodgers 0 | Rays 9, Blue Jays 1 | Giants 8, Diamondbacks 1

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Ryan Roberts entered 2011 as an unknown commodity. Though he was drafted in 2003, the 30-year-old had only accumulated 453 plate appearances in the majors. With the Diamondbacks having few options at third base, Roberts finally got his opportunity. Thus far, he has exceeded expectations — and is one of the main reasons the Diamondbacks are in the playoff race. While Roberts has been great this season, there are some concerns about whether his performance is sustainable.
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Edwin Jackson is a pitcher everyone wants to acquire, but then seemingly can’t wait to unload as soon as possible.

Or at least, that’s the impression you get from looking at his trade history. Jackson has been traded six times over the course of his career, with five of those trades happening within the last three years. He’s been traded for exciting prospects, not exciting prospects, an enigmatic center fielder, a powerful outfielder with platoon issues, and a multitude of relief pitchers. He’s 27-years-old and has yet to become a free agent, but he’s already been on seven different teams in his career. For comparison, Ricky Henderson — the prototypical man-of-many-hats — only played on nine different teams over the course of his entire career.

As Jackson was at the heart of the recent Colby Rasmus trade, I wanted to take another look at all the place he’s been. So without further ado, I present to you my pitiful, Paint-tastic attempt to visualize Edwin Jackson’s full trade history (click to enlarge):

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The Boston offense is indefatigable, whatever that word means.

Featured Game
Cleveland (9) at Boston (7) | 19:10 ET
• So, there are 25 qualified batters currently sporting a 140 wRC+ or better and five of them, turns out, are on the Red Sox.
• To wit: Adrian Gonzalez (166), Dustin Pedroia (151), Jacoby Ellsbury (146), David Ortiz (145), and Kevin Youkilis (143).
• Those also happened to be batters No. 1-5 (although not in that order) in the Red Sox lineup yesterday in the first game of this series — which, that doesn’t seem fair.
• But you know another thing that’s not fair? Life.
• And a third? My grandfather’s skin after standing out in the sun for, like, 30 seconds.*

*Denotes comedy joke.

Watch: NESN.

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.2.

Read the rest of this entry »