Archive for August, 2011
Ackley or Strasburg?
Two years ago, the top two picks in the June draft were pretty obvious – Stephen Strasburg was going to go #1 and Dustin Ackley was going to go #2. Strasburg was the best pitching prospect in the draft’s history, while Ackley had comfortably settled in as the low-risk college position player option. Because of the enormous difference in perceived potential, there was no real question that the Nationals would take Strasburg #1, even with the greater chance of risk associated with drafting a pitcher. I made the case for Ackley at the time, but even I admitted that, given the #1 pick, I’d take Strasburg too.
Now, though, a lot has changed. Strasburg had a remarkable ascent and debut in the big leagues, but then also had to go under the knife and has spent the last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Ackley, meanwhile, had some pedestrian numbers in the minor leagues, took longer to get to the show, but has made a pretty nifty little splash since he got there.
The Morning After: Game Recaps for August 1st
Moving the Needle: Lucas Duda ties the game with a homer in the bottom of the ninth, +.489 WPA. The Mets appeared to have a little magic last night, but it only lasted so long. They fell behind 3-0 early, but then Jason Bay put them on the board with a homer, his third of the year at home, which is as many as he had at home last year. The 3-1 score persisted until the bottom of the ninth, when Angel Pagan doubled, and then, two batter later, Duda got a cookie. He whaled it over the fence in right-center to tie the game at three. But the next inning the Marlins loaded up the bases with one out, and Mike Stanton hit a homer of his own, effectively crushing the Mets chances.
Notables
Javier Vazquez: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K. He’s given up more than three runs just once in his last nine starts. That’s the his fifth start in which he’s allowed zero or one runs, which is more than most people probably thought he’d have coming into the season.
Omar Infante: 3 for 5, 1 3B. That’s his fourth triple in his last 11 games.
Also in this issue: Indians 9, Red Sox 6 | Phillies 4, Rockies 3 | Yankees 3, White Sox 2 | Astros 4, Reds 3 | Mariners 8, A’s 4 | Brewers 6, Cardinals 2 | Nationals 5, Braves 3 | Cubs 5, Pirates 3 | Dodgers 6, Padres 2 | Diamondbacks 5, Giants 2
Kenny Williams’ Quiet Trade Deadline
White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams is notorious for being active around the trade deadline. Yet with his team only three games out of first place the morning of the deadline — for the first time in years — all was quiet on the South Side. Williams’ silence was a big change from previous seasons, when he made big splashes for Alex Rios, Manny Ramirez and Jake Peavy (Rios and Ramirez were technically waiver claims). With the AL Central still up for grabs this season — and his division rivals making some big splashes of their own — Williams’ failure to act seems even more puzzling.
Read the rest of this entry »
FanGraphs Power Rankings – 8/1/11
My stars, what a trade deadline we just had. With all the fascinating deals and hard-hitting analysis that came with it, both here and elsewhere (but especially here!) over the weekend and today, there has been so much trade-deadline talk that I tried as hard as possible to ease up on that score (though it’s just so hard…must…talk…about…trades!!!!). There were some big movers this past week, and one series in particular seems to have been key — the Reds whitewashing of the Giants over the weekend in Cincinnati. Entering the series, the Giants had won two of three for the week, and the Reds had lost their four for the week. But after the dust settled from the sweep, the Reds had vaulted six spots and the Giants had dropped six, the two nearly exchanging spots in the Rankings. Part of that has to do with the fact that the seven teams that occupy spots seven through 13 in the Rankings are only separated by .008, and part of it is due to the fact that the Reds so badly laid the smackdown on the G-men. Even after the series, where they outscored the Giants by 15 runs, the Reds are still thoroughly underperforming this season, but it’s still too early to write them off completely.
Reviewing the Top 10 Prospect Lists: AL West
After a short break to help cover the trade deadline, we’re back taking a look at the pre-season Top 10 lists for all the MLB organizations. Previously, we looked at the National League. The American League is up now and the review begins with the West Division.
Texas Rangers
1. Jurickson Profar, SS
2. Martin Perez, LHP
3. Tanner Scheppers,
4. Robbie Erlin, LHP
5. Michael Kirkman, LHP
6. Mike Olt, 3B
7. Robbie Ross, LHP
8. Jake Skole, OF
9. Luis Sardinas, SS
10. Neil Ramirez, RHP
Deadline Recap: Position Player Upgrades
With the non-waiver trade deadline past us, we can take a step back and see how each contender upgraded its roster. Because the season is two-thirds over, these players might not have an enormous impact. But for a contender sitting on the fringe, or a leader wanting to solidify its position, these acquisitions could make enough of a difference now, and then a bigger one come playoff time, when everyone starts from scratch.
To project the positional upgrade the team will receive, we’ll look at the wRAA the team has received so far from the position, the projected wRAA for the incumbent, and the projected wRAA for the replacement, based on ZiPS rest of season. We’ll assume 230 PA, which is based on a prorated 700 PA season. I’m leaving out defense, because I’m not comfortable projecting 1/3 of a season. I’m also leaving out guys such as Jerry Hairston, who are injury fill-ins rather than upgrades.
One Night Only: Game Previews for August 1st
August 1, 2011
“Zack Greinke,” is probably the answer.
Featured Game
St. Louis (8) at Milwaukee (8) | 20:10 ET
• A number of readers noted (correctly), regarding the recent piece in which I named Clayton Kershaw the Boss of the Strike Zone that, were he qualified, Zack Greinke would actually have a better mark per strikeout differential (K% minus BB%, or K-BB) than Kershaw.
• Regard: Kershaw (28.6% K, 6.6% BB) versus Greinke (31.1% K, 5.3% BB).
• By way of an FYI, let it be known that Curt Schilling’s 2002 mark (31.1% K, 3.2% BB) is the best in the FanGraphs Era.
• Which, that’s the era right after Postmodernism and right before Hammer Time.
• Um, Neo-Hammer Time, I mean.
Watch: Fox Sports Wisconsin. (Although, listen to Bob Uecker and Cory Provus call the game on WTMJ, if possible.)
Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.8.
Crowdsourcing MLB Broadcasters: Names and Places
August 1, 2011
Each summer, baseball fans spend upwards of three or four hours per day with the broadcasters for their favorite teams. With the advent, and increasing ubiquity, of services such as Extra Innings and MLB.TV, fans have become acquainted with broadcasters from other markets, as well.
It’s not uncommon to come across exasperated tweets — or entire websites — dedicated to censuring the sometimes poor behavior of broadcasters. The present author has even attempted a couple reviews of baseballing broadcasts. But never (so far as I know of, at least) has an attempt been made to put a grade on each of the league’s 30 television broadcast teams.
The present post represents the beginning of an attempt to do just that. Much as we attempt, each winter, to facilitate fan projections for players stats here, we will also attempt to do the same for the league’s broadcasting teams.
The first step: to arrive at some understanding of who, exactly, we’re grading. The names you see below are intended to represent the main broadcast teams for each of the league’s 30 clubs. The information here is taken from a combination of Wikipedia and MLB.com, but would certainly benefit from readers who know and care about such things.
Again, the idea is to identify the broadcasters most frequently found in each team’s booth. Many clubs have occasional color commentators and guest announcers, but isolating the most regular contributors will make this process more streamlined, if slightly less nuanced.
So, how do these look?
Arizona: Daron Sutton, Mark Grace
Atlanta: Chip Caray, Joe Simpson
Baltimore: Gary Thorne, Jim Palmer
Boston: Don Orsillo, Jerry Remy
Chicago Americans: Ken Harrelson, Steve Stone