Archive for September, 2011

It’s Still Not Time to Panic in Boston

The Red Sox are reeling. Over the last month, they’ve seen a 10-game lead over Tampa Bay shrink down to just three games. They’ve seen their rotation suffer from injuries and poor performances, and lately, even the normally reliable Daniel Bard has been blowing up at inopportune times. As hard as it would have been to believe even just a few weeks ago, the Rays could pull into a tie in the Wild Card race if they can complete the weekend sweep in Boston.

And yet, despite all the injuries, the poor performances, and the threatening kids from down south, I still don’t think the Red Sox really have all that much to worry about. Even if we presume that the Red Sox and Rays are of somewhat equal talent levels for the remainder of the season, the Sox still have a lot of advantages in this race for the final playoff spot.

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One Night Only: Game Previews for September 16th


You know what just got you know what.

Tampa Bay (7) at Boston (9) | 19:10 ET
Brass Tacks
With Tampa Bay’s 9-2 victory yesternight, the Rays are now only three games behind the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card.

Brass Tacks, Vol II
Per Cool Standings, Boston’s and Tampa Bay’s playoff odds are 88.7% and 8.2%, respectively.

Brass Tacks, Vol III
Per our mortal enemies, Boston and Tampa Bay’s playoff odds are 94.5% and 4.4%, respectively.

A Note on Tonight’s Pitchers
You should consider filing tonight’s pitching matchup under Best Case Scenario, in terms of how it features something like each team’s staff ace in James Shields (226.1 IP, 78 xFIP-) and Josh Beckett (173.2 IP, 89 xFIP-).

A Note on Tonight’s Pitchers, Vol II
That is, unless you include the other pitchers who are something like each team’s staff ace in David Price (210.1 IP, 80 xFIP-) and Jon Lester (176.0, 88 xFIP-).

A Note on a Relevant Internet Meme
If you don’t mind seeing the word sh-t over and over on your computer screen, you might consider bathing your eyes and mind in this particular Google image search.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Red Sox Television.

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Logan Morrison Files Grievance

The Logan Morrison saga continues, as it was learned Thursday afternoon that the outfielder filed a grievance on the grounds of discipline without just cause.

Morrison believes he was unjustly demoted to the minor leagues on August 13 and took action to, in his paraphrased words, stand for what’s right. Though news of the filed grievance broke Thursday afternoon, it was actually filed on August 25, two days after he rejoined the major league team.

While the reasons the Marlins directly gave Morrison regarding his mid-August demotion were patently absurd, the demotion itself might not have been, which muddies these waters. Morrison probably doesn’t have a leg to stand on here, though perhaps his intentions go beyond merely — again, his words — protecting the rights of guys who have been in the league for a long time.

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MLB, the Mets, the Hats, and September 11

Apparently, Major League Baseball really doesn’t want teams wearing caps other than their official team hats. The latest flap occurred when the New York Mets wanted to mark the 10th anniversary of September 11th by wearing caps marked FDNY, NYPD, and other city agencies involved in emergency response on 9/11. Major League Baseball said no, so the Mets decided to wear the caps just during batting practice. Then, according to an in-game tweet from R.A. Dickey, officials came in the fourth inning and took their non-Mets hats.

Joe Torre, Executive Vice President of Operations for MLB, cited recent precedent for the decision, when MLB denied the Washington Nationals’ request to wear caps honoring Navy SEALS a month ago, after a number of SEALs died in a helicopter crash in Afghanistan. The Nats wore the caps during batting practice instead. At the time, the Washington Post paraphrased MLB’s rationale, according to a spokesman:

The league prefers its clubs commemorate specific causes with uniform patches or batting-practice displays, rather than the actual game hats… “We reserve hats for national tributes, where every club is wearing them on the same day,” spokesman Pat Courtney told me.

But that’s inconsistent with recent history, as Paul Lucas at Uni-Watch demonstrated. Back in 2007, the Nationals wore Virginia Tech caps in remembrance of victims of the tragedy at that school. And this year, on Earth Day, the Minnesota Twins wore special green Earth Day caps.

Alright, so maybe Major League Baseball changed its policy really recently and just didn’t tell anyone. Still, understandably, emotions have been running high. Bud Selig was angry that the Mets took the flap public, apparently claiming the team had thrown him “under the bus.” Many New Yorkers were just as angry that Major League Baseball forbade the team from memorializing the first responders who perished as a result of the tragedy.

But it’s not hard to suspect $lightly ba$er motive$, as Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes: “For what it’s worth, New Era, which manufactured the American flag hats used in all MLB games Sunday, said it would not have objected to the Mets wearing first responder hats, as the team so memorably did in 2001… [But] it is difficult not to conclude that MLB, tempted by memorabilia money, made an odious calculation.”

But MLB wasn’t the only party making a monetary calculation. The New York Post reported another possible reason the Mets decided to nix wearing NYPD and FDNY caps during the game:

Another source said Mets COO Jeff Wilpon was “back and forth” with the commissioner’s office on the matter until the proverbial 11th hour, when it was decided the Mets, on the hook for a $25 million loan from MLB, shouldn’t risk the wrath of Selig.

Most Mets past and present did not support their team’s decision to comply with the league edict. David Wright told the Daily News, “If we had a vote, we would wear the hats.” The same article quoted John Franco and Todd Zeile, who played for the Mets in 2001 when they wore first responder caps despite MLB telling them otherwise, urging confrontation. Franco said, “MLB said we couldn’t wear them – we said the heck with that… They (the current Mets) should do that, too, and pay whatever the fine is.” That’s what Josh Thole, the team’s representative to the union, said the same thing before the game: “What are they going to do, they gonna fine us?”

By contrast, several NFL players wore 9/11 tribute equipment from Reebok and expected to be fined, but in the end the league announced it wouldn’t fine anybody. That was the right decision, and if MLB had made it, they would have avoided this controversy — and Selig would have avoided making the disgusting accusation that a New York team that wanted to honor the victims of September 11 had in some way thrown the league “under the bus.”

As commissioner, Bud Selig has increased baseball revenue to tremendous heights. Last year, according to a trade publication, MLB licensing revenue was projected to beat NFL licensing revenue for the fourth straight year. Selig’s knack for making people richer is a good reason why he is already the second-longest-tenured commissioner ever, counting his six-year run as acting commissioner following Fay Vincent’s resignation. But he isn’t particularly popular with baseball fans.

(That said, baseball fans opposed to Bud Selig are about as well-organized as The People’s Front of Judea and the People’s Judean Front, as can be seen from four Facebook pages dedicated to his removal:
Baseball Fans for the Resignation of Bud Selig — 34 likes
Remove Bud Selig as MLB Commisioner — 16 likes
Bud Selig should resign — 18 likes
1,000,000 petition who HATES Bud Selig and thinks he’s an idiot — 8 likes)

Selig understands business. But a tunnel focus on the business — as with baseball’s ridiculous ban on YouTube videos, making game footage of amazing plays absurdly hard to find — can have the counterproductive side effect of pissing off fans. Hey, baseball’s a business, and it should be run as one. But I doubt that any of baseball’s priorities would have been seriously harmed by just letting the Mets wear the FDNY and NYPD caps during the game, just as they weren’t harmed by letting the Nats wear Virginia Tech caps. MLB made the wrong choice, and as a result, they’re suffering the blowback in the court of public opinion. They deserve it.


Braves Prospect Ronan Pacheco Is The Anti-Graphs

In 2011, the Atlanta Braves found themselves the envy of professional baseball behind a quartet of impressive young arms in Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Arodys Vizcaino. The chatter about these young pitchers remained loud throughout the season to the point where other arms in the system were overshadowed. A handful of those names made headlines only after being dealt to the Houston Astros for Michael Bourn. That trade created a pitching void at the middle levels of the Braves organization. Cue Ronan Pacheco.

In the history of Fangraphs, I wonder how many positive pieces have ever been written about a 23-year year old pitcher in the lower minors who strikes out less than six-per-nine innings while walking a shade under four-per-nine? Knowing full well this piece will draw the ire of a great many Fangraphs readers based on the numbers alone, Pacheco is simply too perfect an example of a pitcher who bucks just about every prospect stereotype on both the statistical and scouting sides to not discuss.

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The Nike Bat Kerfuffle: Much Ado About Nothing?

When Nike makes moves, the sporting world listens. They are, after all, the top sporting apparel company in the business.

So when they released contracted universities from any commitment to use Nike baseball bats during the upcoming season, it set off some waves. Presumably, it was a chink in the Nike armor, and an admission that their bats were suspect. But there’s more to this, even more than we can hope to uncover today.

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Rookies and Those that Came Before Them

Major League Baseball has seen a subtle change in philosophy over the past few years. More and more teams are relying on their minor league systems to develop talent to fill big league holes, rather than focusing on the typically more expensive veteran players on the free agent market or via a trade. Unless, of course, you’re the San Francisco Giants organization.

This season, we’ve seen quite a few rookies play prominant roles on their respective clubs. Below, you’ll find a list of six position players in their first MLB seasons. Let’s find out how well they compare – both in output and financial considerations – to the players who filled their roles in 2010.

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Matt Klaassen FanGraphs Chat – 9/15/11


NPB Stats: Looking for Japan’s Next Great Import

The MLB season is drawing to a close, which means it’s about time for rampant speculation about next year’s free agents. One of my favorite off-season storylines is that of the east Asian baseball markets both giving and absorbing talent.

This past off season, we witnessed the likes of Chad Tracy, Wladimir Balentien, and Micah Hoffpauer head west to the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league while Japan sent Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Ryan Vogelsong Minnesota and California’s way.

Let’s look at the present NPB league statistics, so we can start writing our wishlists and dreaming about next year’s rosters.

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One Night Only: Game Previews for September 15th


Jeremy Hellickson: already angry at you.

Tampa Bay (7) at Boston (10) | 19:10 ET
Brass Tacks
In terms of why this game is interesting, it’s because these two teams begin a four-game series today with one team (the Rays) exactly four games behind the other (the Red Sox) in the AL Wild Card race.

A Note Regarding Jeremy Hellickson
Jeremy Hellickson, who’s starting tonight for Tampa Bay, entered the season as one of the game’s most interesting prospects, thanks to his command and excellent changeup.

A Second Note Regarding Jeremy Hellickson
Hellickson’s season has maybe been a bit disappointing in light of his pedigree. Line: 170.1 IP, 15.6% K, 8.5% BB, 33.8% GB, 4.48 SIERA, 4.57 xFIP, 114 xFIP-.

A Third Note Regarding Jeremy Hellickson
Hellickson has faced 56 total batters over the last two games and struck out only three of them.

A Fourth Note Regarding Jeremy Hellickson
The author would mention none of this to Hellickson himself, owing to how the latter appears to be constantly annoyed and is almost definitely carrying a shiv of some description.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Red Sox Television.

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