Rookies and Those that Came Before Them

Major League Baseball has seen a subtle change in philosophy over the past few years. More and more teams are relying on their minor league systems to develop talent to fill big league holes, rather than focusing on the typically more expensive veteran players on the free agent market or via a trade. Unless, of course, you’re the San Francisco Giants organization.

This season, we’ve seen quite a few rookies play prominant roles on their respective clubs. Below, you’ll find a list of six position players in their first MLB seasons. Let’s find out how well they compare – both in output and financial considerations – to the players who filled their roles in 2010.

Danny Espinosa | 2B | Washington
The 24-year-old infielder was a solid college player but no one expected him to hit 19 homers in one season at the MLB level. Thought of as more of a “grinder,” Espinosa is one stolen base away from a 15-15 season. Despite the power output, his triple-slash line is just .231/.317/.406 in 524 at-bats. Because he’s a solid defender, Espinosa has produced a WAR of 3.2 so far in 2011.

While making the league minimum salary this season, the former Long Beach State star has been worth about $14 million in value, while veteran Adam Kennedy – who held the job in 2010 – has posted a 0.2 WAR for Seattle while making $750,000. He produced a 0.7 WAR for Washington in 2010. Cristian Guzman, now out of baseball, also saw significant time at the keystone and his WAR sat at 0.8. Clearly, the rookie has been a big step up over those that made more for less in 2010.

Freddie Freeman | 1B | Atlanta
Just 21, it’s no surprise that Freeman had a bit of an inconsistent season. Even so, he has produced at a decent clip (.352 wOBA) and has 19 home runs and 72 RBI. His triple-slash line sits at .292/.353/.458 in 528 at-bats. With a compelling mix of developing power (.167 ISO) and a nice line-drive stroke that’s capable of producing high averages, Freeman has compiled a 1.5 WAR. Poor fielding, as judged by UZR, hurts his overall value.

Veterans Troy Glaus and Derrek Lee manned the position in 2010. Glaus saw the most time there and produced a WAR of 0.5 while making $1.75 million. He’s now out of baseball. Lee had a nice run with Atlanta after being acquired late in the season. He had a 0.8 WAR in 39 games and was in the final season of a five-year contract that paid him $13 million in 2010. He’s played with two clubs in 2011 (Baltimore and Pittsburgh) and has accumulated a WAR of 1.1 while making $7.5 million. Atlanta made a smart decision by giving the job to Freeman.

Justin Turner | 2B | New York NL
Turner was never a big-time prospect and lucked into the role when fellow rookie Brad Emaus failed to hit in April. Already 26, Turner has also spent time at the hot corner, but he’s seen the most opportunities at second base. He does a nice job of putting the ball in play and avoiding the strikeout (11.8 K%), which is good because he doesn’t hit for much power (.097 ISO). Turner has a triple-slash line of .269/.336/.366 in 413 at-bats. Defensively, UZR likes him a lot more as a third baseman than a second baseman but his bat doesn’t profile well at the hot corner at all.

Turner has produced a 1.1 WAR for the Mets in 2011. The main second baseman in 2010 was veteran Luis Castillo. Now out of baseball, the only thing that kept him playing pro ball over the last three seasons of his career was the ridiculous (It was even bad when he signed it) four-year contract that paid him $6 million in 2010. Although Turner is probably more of a utility player moving forward, he was still an improvement in 2011.

J.P. Arencibia | C | Toronto

Of all the rookies replacing veterans, Arencibia probably most resembles the man he’s replacing. Consider Arencibia’s 2011 triple-slash line versus John Buck’s career triple-slash line: .219/.278/.451 and .241/.304/.415. Now let’s look at other numbers comparing the rookie’s 2011 line and the veteran’s 2010 season:

BB%: 7.0 | 3.7
K%: 28.2 | 25.4
ISO: .232 | .208
wOBA: .313 | .345
WAR: 1.5 | 3.0

It might have been tempting for some general managers to resign the veteran catcher John Buck, whose 2010 stats with the Jays are listed on the right side and compared to Arencibia’s on the left. Now a Florida Marlin, Buck parlayed his ’10 numbers (for which he was paid $2 million) into a three-year, $18 million contract. His numbers have slipped back to his career norms and he’s produced a 1.9 WAR. As mentioned, Arencibia is a fairly similar hitter to Buck but he costs a heck of a lot less and has some upside.

Wilson Ramos | C | Washington
Ramos doesn’t get as much publicity when it comes to talk of the Rookie of the Year in the National League, but he should. He’s played solid defense while catching some pretty talented pitchers and is no slouch at the plate. I’ll bet you that Minnesota is wishing that they had him back right about now. In 2011, Ramos produced a triple-slash line of .258/.327/.424 in 356 at-bats. He’s walked at a decent clip, kept his strikeouts in check and has flashed some power (.166 ISO).

Ramos has produced a 2.7 WAR in 2011, good for a value of about $12 million while making the league minimum in salary. Paid $3 million in 2010 (and the same in ’11 to back-up Ramos), Ivan Rodriguez produced a WAR of 0.5. Still a useful part-time player, it’s clear that his best days as a starter are behind him.

Brent Morel | 3B | Chicago AL
Morel’s glove and overall defensive play at third base have been met with open arms from Chicago’s fan base. On the down side, his offense has been far below league-average for the hot corner. Morel is hitting just .255/.290/.360 in 369 at-bats and will definitely have to improve at the plate if he’s going to keep the job long term. He makes a lot of contact (11.9 K%), but he’s hurt by an impatient approach (4.1 BB%) and lack of power (.106 ISO).

Believe it or not, Morel’s 0.7 WAR is a big upgrade over those that came before him. Third base was a black hole for the White Sox club in 2010. Mark Teahen, never that good of a player to begin with, was a shell of his former self and produced a WAR of -0.7 while playing 52 games at third base. Pressed into playing more than he should have, Omar Vizquel produced a 0.1 WAR on the season. Eighty-three of his 108 games were spent at the hot corner. Neither Teahen nor Vizquel have produced much in 2011 so it was a great decision to hand the position over to Morel in 2011.