Remember when the San Diego Padres were winning last season, and Jake Peavy called out his former team’s ownership for firing general manager Kevin Towers, whom Peavy saw as the architect behind the 2010 Padres? Well, Peavy was put in an awkward position this season, as Towers took over an Arizona team that promptly won the National League West, primarily (albeit not completely) due to players Towers did not acquire. Wanting to stay consistent, Peavy pointed out that Towers stumbled into a good situation. Oh, wait, that didn’t happen. I am sure Mr. Peavy will get around to it in the off season.

Whoever is responsible for the Diamondbacks’ rise in 2011, it has been surprising and remarkable, and the performances of a couple of their starting pitchers played a large role. Arizona does not have a dominating “ace” in the mold of Halladay, Sabathia, Verlander, or Greinke, but neither did the 2008 Tampa Bay team that went to the World Series. How does the Arizona playoff rotation match up with the others?

Read the rest of this entry »

I call it the Mariano Rivera rule. When explaining DIPS – the theory that all pitchers have very similar skill on balls in play – it helps to state the concept in terms of real pitchers. For most Joe Shmoes, we can expect a BABIP close to league average. Perhaps his BABIP won’t be average in a month, or a year, or maybe multiple years, but eventually we can expect it to approach around .290.

But we know there are exceptions. If a pitcher allows very weak contact, he can allow fewer hits than expected on balls in play. And what pitcher allows weaker contact than Mariano Rivera? In over 1200 career innings, he has a BABIP of .262, which is well below the league average. If we assume that this number is an accurate representation of his true BABIP talent level, which it should be at this sample size, then we can reasonably say that any pitcher with a BABIP below or approaching .262 is at least partially lucky. Of course this is not meant to say that Rivera’s BABIP has some sort of asymptotic purpose in nature, just to suggest an easy rule with a high level of accuracy.

Owner of a career .265 BABIP in over 1300 career innings, Matt Cain breaks this rule. While he pitches against easier competition in a more pitcher friendly ballpark, he is also a starter, forced to weave his way through multiple lineup turns with declining stamina. While his DIPS defying ways have been well documented, they remain fascinating.

Read the rest of this entry »

Look at all of these unemployed babies.

Boston (9) at Baltimore (2) | 19:05 ET
New York AL (10) at Tampa Bay (7) | 19:10 ET
Philadelphia (3) at Atlanta (5) | 19:10 ET
St. Louis (3) at Houston (4) | 20:05 ET
On Why There’re Four Games Here
Everyone, even tiny babies, knows why there are four games here: because each of these games includes a team tied, on the last day of the season, for the Wild Card in their respective league.

On How Such a Thing Happened
Everyone wrote to their senator and asked for it, probably.

On How Such a Thing Will End
Copious butt-slapping, win or lose.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode Eighty-Five
In which the guest is his own Newman.

Headlines
Stats and Scouting, The Relationship Between — Celebrated!
The Mike Newman Story — Told Briefly!
Specific Prospects — Actually Discussed!
The Word Fisted — Said Aloud!

Featuring
Mike Newman, Prospect Maven

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 1 hour play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Yesterday, I tackled the Tigers rotation, and when writing these sorts of pieces, I begin to appreciate Jim Leyland just a little bit — he keeps thing simple. Joe Girardi is anything but simple — there are several options on the table for the Yankees as they set up their postseason rotation. The way the American League schedule lines up, teams technically don’t need a fourth starter until Game 4 of the ALCS, provided they are willing to throw their Game 1 ALDS starter on three days rest in Game 4 of the ALDS (should such a thing be necessary, that is). Since we know that CC Sabathia is not one to shy away from such assignments, there is a good chance that the Yankees could roll with just three starters in the Division Series.

But who will that third starter be? Freddy Garcia seems to be the odds-on favorite at the moment, but Girardi could very well stand by A.J. Burnett. The decision could boil down to who the Yanks face in the Division Series, as Garcia has some impressive superficial numbers against the Tigers. At the moment though, those seem to be the only two candidates, as a back injury to Phil Hughes and the decreased velocity from Bartolo Colon seem to have relegated them to bullpen candidates at best. Nothing is set in stone, but it appears that Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Garcia and Burnett will be the Yankees’ four horsemen of the playoffcalypse, so we’ll focus on them.

CC Sabathia: 3.00 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 75 xFIP-, 3.77 K/BB, 0.64 HR/9, 7.0 WAR
Since his rookie season of 2001, only one pitcher that has thrown more innings than Sabathia (Mark Buehrle) and only one pitcher has been more valuable (Roy Halladay). Simply put, Sabathia is the cream of the crop, and this year has been no different, as he has posted career bests in FIP, xFIP and SIERA. He has worked his curveball back into the mix this year, throwing his fastball and changeup a little bit less. He’s also been more efficient this year, getting to 0-1 more frequently, upping his K% and lowering his BB%. Neither of the latter percentages are career bests, but they are his best marks since coming to the Yankees. He has been better at home than on the road, but A) he’ll make most of his starts at home, and B) any pitcher would kill for Sabathia’s road numbers — his 3.26 road xFIP this year ranks 13th in the game.

Ivan Nova: 3.70 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 103 xFIP-, 1.72 K/BB, 0.71 HR/9, 2.6 WAR
Let’s be clear — Nova’s here because of a little help from his friends. Of the five Yankees pitchers who tossed more than 100 innings this year, Nova’s RS/GS and RS/IP are the highest, and it’s not all that close either. In fact, only three pitchers in the game had a better RS/GS than Nova — Tim Wakefield, Derek Holland and John Lackey — and only Holland, Lackey, Jon Lester and Wakefield had a better RS/IP. Having said that, Nova has taken advantage of the opportunity his shiny wins total has afforded him. In the second half, he has kept the ball on the ground while cutting his walk totals. If there is one concern with Nova, it’s that he’s been much better on the road (3.51 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.92 xFIP) than he has been at home (4.19 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 4.45 xFIP) in his two years in the Majors, so I’m not sure the Yankees are set up to get optimal value out of him by pitching him in Game 2 (and potentially Game 5) of the ALDS, which will/would both be in the Bronx.

Freddy Garcia: 3.62 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 108 xFIP-, 2.13 K/BB, 0.98 HR/9, 2.1 WAR
Garcia doesn’t do anything terrible impressive. Among Yankees’ starters this season, the only thing that he has been the team leader in is HR/FB, and he leads in that category by the slimmest, essentially non-existent margin. But what he has been is reliable. In comparing him to A.J. Burnett, we see that Garcia has only produced a negative WPA in 38% of his starts, whereas Burnett stands at 59%. Burnett has also been torched more frequently, as he has had eight starts this season with a -.200 WPA or worse, compared to just four times from Garcia. When you have a killer offense, you don’t necessarily have to have a three-hit shutout, you just want the game kept within reason. Garcia has shown he can do that with greater regularity than has Burnett, and as such is the leader in the clubhouse for the Game 3 nod.

A.J. Burnett: 5.16 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 95 xFIP-, 2.08 K/BB, 1.47 HR/9, 1.4 WAR

I want it all: the terrifying lows, the dizzying highs, the creamy middles. — Homer Simpson

Yes, A.J. Burnett would be Homer’s kind of pitcher. Virtually any kind of performance is on the table when Burnett pitches, but after his strikeout rate bottomed out last year, it looked like we may have seen the last of the dizzying highs. However, he has rebounded nicely this season, posting an above-league average 20.7%. He has also brought his GB/FB ratio back to the level it was at in his last season north of the border. And that’s what makes his home run totals so head-scratching — he’s permitted fewer fly balls than he has each of the past two seasons, but has been tagged for more homers anyway. This has been especially troublesome in the second half. In the first half, Burnett was carrying a high but not quite string-of-obscenities high 14.3% HR/FB, but in the second-half, he has been tuned up for a truly mystifying 22.2%. Fortunately for the Yankees, it’s a pace that simply isn’t sustainable. There will be regression coming for Burnett — the question is will it come in time.

Let’s not forget Colon in all of this. As of this writing, Girardi has not ruled him out for the postseason rotation, and while his velocity has decreased while his ERA has increased in the second half, his FIP and xFIP over the past 30 days are both better than that of Burnett or Garcia, and his xFIP is better than Nova’s. He has still been efficient with his pitches in that timeframe too, as his 5.00 K/BB is better than any other Yankees’ starter, Sabathia included. Still, signs point to him not being in the mix at this point. We’ll see if his start in Tampa tonight changes things.

The Yankees rotation is not as dominant as Detroit’s, but Sabathia, Nova and Garcia have been a healthy mix of good and dependable, and a fourth starter — be it Burnett, Colon or Hughes — may not be needed in any of the Yankees’ first eight postseason games, giving Girardi the luxury of putting off his decision for nearly two weeks. The composition of the Yankees’ rotation has been a complex thing all season, and remains so now, but chances are that once they make up their minds, it will be effective.

Tomorrow: Texas Rangers

It hasn’t been particularly difficult for me to think forward to the 2012 season. The Twins season has been an unmitigated disaster basically from the get-go, and that has largely fueled my desire to look forward on both the large and small scales.

So, with the season winding down, what better time to consider some Rookie of the Year candidates for next season? Today’s entry will only consider candidates on the junior circuit, with next Tuesday’s wrapping up the mini-series.

Matt Moore – SP Tampa Bay Rays

I’ve read many reviews in which a man-love cup overfloweth regarding young Mr. Moore, but the most recent seems awfully poignant. Ben Badler, a scouting and development writer for Baseball America, tweeted the following: “Just wrote up Matt Moore’s scouting report for BA. I don’t smoke, but I’m suddenly craving a cigarette.” This hardly seems like hyperbole, considering Moore has fanned 15 of the first 40 batters he’s faced in the major leagues. Oh, not to mention that he fanned 12.2 per nine this season in the minors, which is the worst K rate he’s posted in his five minor league campaigns in the Rays system. There’s gushing, and then there’s what scouts are doing over Moore. Now Moore certainly won’t fan 14.5 per nine like he has in this incredibly small MLB sample size, nor is he likely to whiff the 12-plus per nine he did in the minors, but even settling into the Michael Pineda area of things should provide Matt with all the firepower he needs to win the award in 2012.

Jesus Montero – C New York Yankees

Filling the shoes of a legend is never easy, but it’s a little easier when the legend begins to slip and is relegated to mostly DH duties. Enter Montero, who has taken the junior circuit by storm in posting a 1080 OPS, eight extra-base hits in his first 64 plate appearances, and a .455 wOBA. None of this serves to suggest that small sample sizes aren’t as deceiving as an XL label at A&F, but to help illustrate just how big the expectations will be for the plodding “catcher” next year in the Bronx. He’ll likely DH for almost the entire season, which may hurt his chances since no DH has won the award since Bob Hamelin in 1994. Then again, catching everyday would probably hurt his chances more. The sky is the limit with Montero offensively, and he appears to be the leader in the clubhouse with everyone I’ve chatted with thus far.

Ryan Lavarnway – C Boston Red Sox

An overachiever in some sense of the word, Lavarnway didn’t find himself on anyone’s top 100 list when he began the season with Double-A Portland. Well, 32 home runs and a .939 OPS across two levels later, Lavarnway has to be at least mentioned in the discussion for ROY nominees. In a sense, Lavarnway is in a similar situation as Montero, replacing a legend that has begun his fade to black. Now, the absence of hype might be a reason why Lavarnway doesn’t necessarily belong on this list, but here’s how I look at it: the only person in his way is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and the only thing he really has on Lavarnway at this point is a longer last name. I could see Lavarnway having a Mark Trumbo-esque rookie season, with his counting stats giving him a fair shot at taking home the hardware at the end of the season. The Red Sox lineup is the perfect one for him to be born into anyway, as it proved in 2010 that it could hide Salty (and Crawford….and Drew) and still be among the AL’s best.

Other candidates: Mike Trout, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos

Columnist note: Ideally, I’d have included Trout, but I don’t think he’ll get enough of a shot in a crowded Angels outfield next season to merit nomination.

The Phillies are the best team in baseball this season. Their pitching staff is amazing and the hitters are good. Here is a look at how many bad teams would need to be combined to make a team that would be comparable to the Phillies in talent.

Note: The WAR values used in the article are from 9/21 have changed a bit since I collected the data.

Read the rest of this entry »