Our series on disappointing Top 10 prospects from 2011 continues with a look at the American League West. We’ve already taken a trip through the AL East and Central.

Seattle Mariners
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Johermyn Chavez, OF

I’ve been a pretty big supporter of Chavez since his days in the Jays organization (He was part of the loot, along with Brandon League, for Brandon Morrow) so it was more than a little disappointing – but not entirely unexpected – to see him struggle at double-A in 2011. Still just 21, he saw his wOBA drop from .410 to .304. His power also dried up as he went from having an ISO rate of .262 in a potent A-ball environment to .144 in a lesser (but still above-average) offensive-minded league. Chavez’ BABIP swung wildly along the way from .364 to .268. The good news is that his plate discipline did not change that much. His strikeout rate climbed by 2.6% and his walk rate also climbed… by 1%. The strong-armed outfielder will likely repeat double-A in 2012 but he’s still ahead of the curve in terms of age/development. He’ll probably never hit for average in the high minors or Majors but he should be able to improve upon his .212 and get up into the .250-.260 range if he can learn to better handle the off-speed stuff.

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James Shields has had a career year, and at least some of the credit goes to Jim Hickey. The Rays pitching coach has played a hands-on role in the right-hander’s success, which has been fueled, in part, by adjustments to his pitch selection. Hickey sat down to discuss those changes, as well as Shields’ BABiP and complete games, earlier this month.

Rays manager Joe Maddon also weighed in on Shields. His comments follow the interview with Hickey.

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David Laurila: Much of the attention James Shields has received this year has come as a result of his complete games. Are other, equally important, things being overlooked?

Jim Hickey: I’m not sure if they are or not, but he certainly deserves credit for a lot of other things. The complete games are kind of sexy and are calling a lot of attention to him, but he’s been an extremely solid, and productive, Major League starter since the beginning of the 2007 season. He takes the ball every fifth day and he pitches 215-220 innings every year. He gives you a chance to win the ballgame virtually every time out, and that’s really all that we can ask.

I was looking at his stats the other day and what stunned me was that James has allowed 50 fewer hits than innings pitched this year. It is about 170 compared to 220. That’s really something. He’s always been a guy who has allowed hits, and home runs, because he’s always in the strike zone and his stuff isn’t overpowering. I would say that he had 35 more hits than innings pitched last year, or maybe a little bit more, and to have an 80-hit swing is really impressive.

DL: I want to get back to his hits allowed, but first, you just referred to complete games as a “sexy” statistic. Has the game involved to a point where that‘s a fitting description?

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An example of a famous Russian astronaut, or cosmonaut.

St. Louis (3) at Houston (4) | 20:05 ET
Brass Tacks
What with Atlanta’s loss on Sunday and St. Louis’s victory, the Cardinals now find themselves a single game behind the Braves in the NL Wild Card Race.

In Terms of Percentages
In terms of percentages, that gives the Cardinals a 36.6% chance of making the postseason; the Braves, 63.4% (per Cool Standings).

Meet Some Astros!
Here are some Astros: Brian Bogusevic (173 PA, 118 wRC+, 1.8 WAR), J.D. Martinez (219 PA, 106 wRC+, 1.6 WAR), Jimmy Paredes (172 PA, 93 wRC+, 0.6 WAR).

Meet Some Astronauts!
Here are some current astronauts: Serena M. Auñón, Jeanette J. Epps, Jack D. Fischer.

Some Other Terms for Astronaut
Here are some other terms for astronaut: cosmonaut (a Russian space traveler), taikonaut (a Chinese space traveler), sexynaut (an Italian space traveler).

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Astros Television.

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Clayton Kershaw pitched well in his final start of the season on Sunday, striking out six San Diego Padres and walking one over 7 1/3 innings. Kershaw’s league-leading ERA rose a hundredth of a point to 2.28, while his estimators improved a smidgen — en-route to the 23-year-old’s 21st win this year.

The innings total puts the lefty at 233 1/3, behind only Roy Halladay. He struck out 248 batters, a full 16 punchouts ahead of Cliff Lee. Kershaw’s K/BB ratio ranks behind only Halladay and Lee, and his WHIP is tied for first with Cole Hamels.

Kershaw has had a remarkable season, and while these league-leader recaps might generally point to the Phillies’ front three splitting the Cy Young Award, it’s extremely likely that the Dodgers’ ace wins the award in only his third full season.

In the same game, Matt Kemp went 1-5 — with a double — bringing his seasonal line to a gaudy .324/.400/.581. Only four games remain, but with 37 home runs, 120 RBI and 40 stolen bases, Kemp has a fighting shot at both the National League triple crown and a membership to the 40/40 club.

Both players are either among — or very close to — the elite of the elite, and each has a very realistic chance to win a major regular-season award. The two also play on the same team, which happens to have a so-so 80-78 record. The Dodgers aren’t going to the playoffs, aren’t guaranteed an above-.500 record and have had quite a turbulent season with the team’s very public ownership issues. Yet the fact that Kershaw and Kemp have legitimate shots at winning the Cy Young and the MVP, respectively, says a great deal about the evaluation evolution. In fact, if they both do win awards, Kemp and Kershaw will have made history.

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The sort of scissors utilized by both starters in today’s featured game.

Los Angeles NL (5) at San Diego (6) | 16:05 ET
Playoffs Schmayoffs
There are a couple games today — the Boston-New York ones, the Cardinal one — that have playoff implications, but the present author is like, “Talk to the hand, you games.”

Why the Author Is Saying That
Because his knowledge of popular slang is current up to only about 15 years ago.

Why Else the Author Is Saying That
Because none of the underdogs at this point has better than a 16% chance of making the playoffs — and this game probably represents that last time we’ll see Clayton Kershaw this season.

Something You Probably Know About Clayton Kershaw
Here’s the season line for Clayton Kershaw, Cy Young Candidate: 226.0 IP, 27.3% K, 6.0% BB, 43.4% GB, 2.65 SIERA, 2.82 xFIP, 73 xFIP-.

Something You Mayn’t Know About Kershaw’s Opponent
Kershaw’s opponent, Cory Luebke, has been almost as brilliant as Kershaw on a per-batter basis: 133.2 IP, 28.1% K, 7.6% BB, 38.9% GB, 2.67 SIERA, 2.97 xFIP, 77 xFIP-.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Dodgers Television.

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A Red Sox fan asks the big questions.

Boston (9) at New York AL (10) | 16:10 ET
Regarding Something Bill James Said
Bill James has said — somewhere, at some point in time — something to the effect of “We’re frequently interested in things that other people find interesting.”

An Example of What James Means by That
Murder cases — like how people like murder cases.

On the Relevance of That Statement to This Game
Despite the fact that, as of this morning, the Red Sox have something like a 95% chance of making the playoffs, a great portion of New Englanders are wringing their hands anxiously regarding the Sox and their fate.

An Example of Said Handwringing
A Boston Globe photo slideshow entitled “Who’s to Blame?”

Another Example of That Handwringing
This video debate over whether the Sox are dirty and doggy enough.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Red Sox Television.

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Denizens of Red Sox Nation have been sounding the alarm for a couple of weeks now. But, even after all of the team’s success over the past decade, many such folks are apt to sound the alarm when Dustin Pedroia stubs his pinky toe or Jonathan Papelbon sneezes a little too loudly, so it’s always good to take these waves of panic with a grain (or seven) of salt. But here we are in late September, and the Red Sox have done little to stem the tide. Even Josh Beckett fell victim to the Olde Towne Team’s September malaise on Wednesday. Turns out, all the hand-wringing and theoretical (hopefully) Tobin Bridge jumping has been justified.

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Former Braves and current Yankees “prospect” Cody Johnson blasted the longest home run I’ve ever seen. In 2008, it came against St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Maikel Cleto (A Mets prospect at the time). Johnson turned on a 95 MPH fastball at the letters, and in turn, seared an “80 power” grade into my mind for eternity. At the time, I wasn’t really concerned about the metrics behind actually producing to the home run equivalent “80 power” (38+ home runs at the Major League level), but neither were scouting contacts. In retrospect, I should have paid more attention as his K%, 34.4%, made it impossible to project elite power from any prospect.

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Today on ESPN.com, one of the top baseball stories details Brian Cashman’s feigned interest in signing Carl Crawford over the offseason. This revelation isn’t actually new — Jack Curry of YES Network published the same news back in December — but the ESPN story does add one interesting quote to the story. Observe:

“I actually had dinner with the agent to pretend that we were actually involved and drive the price up,” Cashman said. “The outfield wasn’t an area of need, but everybody kept writing Crawford, Crawford, Crawford, Crawford. And I was like, ‘I feel like we’ve got Carl Crawford in Brett Gardner, except he costs more than $100 million less, with less experience.’

I made the claim earlier this season that Brett Gardner is an elite player, and it was met with mixed reactions. Some agree that Gardner’s decent hitting and great defense make him great; others find the claim of great defense too steeped in his great UZR. But now, courtesy of Brian Cashman, we have a suitable point of comparison from a person in a position of baseball authority. Carl Crawford was a four-time All-Star with the Rays and a gold glove winner. No sane person would argue he wasn’t an elite player with the Rays.

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