Archive for November, 2011

Rays Trade Jaso to Mariners

In a weekend that was filled with football, college basketball, and leftover turkey, the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners hooked up for a trade that pulled us back into the clutches of the simmering Hot Stove – the deal saw Tampa trade 28-year-old catcher John Jaso to Seattle for 27-year-old right-handed reliever Josh Lueke and a player to be named later (or cash considerations).

Jaso is a very solid, buy-low acquisition for the Mariners. He endeared himself to the sabermetric community by hitting .263/.372/.378 as a rookie in 2010, but followed that up by hitting only .224/.298/.354 this past season. That .288 wOBA, however, was largely due to a dip in BABIP to .244, which should see some natural correction next year.

The left-handed hitting catcher possesses a keen eye for balls and strikes at the plate and is extremely selective when swinging. He has walked more than he has struck out over his career, while swinging at a mere 34.9% of the pitches he sees over his 687 plate appearances in the big leagues. Only Bobby Abreu, Brett Gardner, Joe Mauer, and Jamey Carroll take the bat off their shoulder less often than Jaso.

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Crowdsourcing MLB Broadcasters: Introduction

Committed baseball fans spend upwards of three or four hours per day during the season watching (or listening to) their favorite team play — and watching, via Extra Innings or MLB.TV, a number of other games outside their respective television markets. Given the interest in the sport, it’s not surprising to find entire websites (like the present one, for instance) dedicated to analyzing the performances of players, front offices, etc.

As most fans will agree, however, it’s frequently difficult to separate the experience of watching this or that team from the broadcasters whose job it is to narrate and comment upon the action. Residents of Wisconsin would be hard-pressed to imagine Brewer baseball without Bob Uecker’s constant celebration of beer and cured meat; Dodger fans have a similar affection for the aged and ageless Vin Scully; Cubs broadcaster Len Kasper is one of a growing number of announcers who’ve embraced sabermetrics; and White Sox TV play-by-play man Hawk Harrelson is… another person employed in this capacity.

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Atlanta Needs Its Starting Pitching Depth

The Braves made the very first trade of the offseason by sending Derek Lowe — and 2/3 of his $15 million salary — to the Indians. Though the return was nothing to write home about, Lowe represented unnecessary depth. The Braves had plenty of rotation candidates and freeing up $5 million afforded the team more wiggle room to pursue future transactions. But even after dealing from its major strength, the Braves still employ a whopping nine starting pitchers that could conceivably vie for a spot in the rotation.

Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are locks. The latter two spots will feature some combination of Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Arodys Vizcaino, Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran. The Braves clearly have a number of solid pitchers at their disposal, and have been linked to numerous teams in trade discussions. After all, dealing from a strength to fix a weakness is a solid business practice.

However, in this case, the Braves would be better off recognizing that their depth doesn’t exactly qualify as a surplus. A surplus implies that the Braves don’t have a need for all nine of the aforementioned pitchers. Given the checkered injury histories of some and the likely innings limits imposed on others to avoid falling prey to the Verducci Effect, they probably will need all eight next season.

Teams don’t necessarily plan to use eight pitchers at the season’s outset, but the Braves may find themselves in that very position heading into spring training.

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Ryan Braun’s Constantly Improving Plate Discipline

Some idle Holiday Internetting has compelled the author of this piece to point his web browser in the direction of National League MVP Ryan Braun’s player profile, which in turn has compelled the author to discover something about Braun’s plate-discipline numbers — namely, that they have improved in a decidedly regular fashion since his rookie season of 2007.

Here we can see that improvement in graph form:

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Antonelli’s Big Deal

Teams roll the dice on former top prospects all the time, but it’s not often you see one get a guaranteed Major League contract. That’s exactly what the Orioles officially gave infielder Matt Antonelli this week. The former first round pick of the Padres will compete for a job in Spring Training after passing his physical on Monday.

Antonelli spent this past season in the Nationals’ organization, posting a .377 wOBA in 359 Triple-A plate appearances after having surgery for Carpal Tunnel Syndrome. He missed all but one game of the 2010 season thanks to left wrist surgery (hamate), and his 2009 campaign consisted of just 59 games due to various sprains (ankle) and strains (thigh). It’s been a bumpy few years for Antonelli, who Baseball America considered the 50th best prospect in the game prior to the 2008 season.

You can understand why the Orioles would add a guy like this. Antonelli’s always shown very strong walk rates in the minors, including 13.1% this year and 13.9% for his career. He also does a nice job of putting the bat on the ball, striking out just 16.4% of the time in 2011 and 15.1% of the time in his minor league career. A .163 ISO (.142 career) is a decent number as well, particularly for a guy capable of playing the middle infield. Antonelli was drafted as a third baseman but shifted to second by San Diego, and he spent the 2011 season bouncing between the three non-first base infield spots as well as left field. The problem in recent years has been injuries, not performance.

The Major League contract is a little odd, just because you don’t normally see players with three straight years of injury trouble and zero big league track record land such deals. For what it’s worth, Antonelli did say on his blog that a dozen or so teams had been in contact with him earlier this month, so perhaps it’s the guaranteed 40-man roster spot that put Baltimore over the top. The O’s are woefully thin on the infield thanks to Brian Roberts‘ continued injury problems, with Ryan Adams and Robert Andino projected to start at second and third, so they did add some much needed depth.

Dan Duquette’s first real move at the helm of the Orioles was a little interesting, not because of the player but because of the contract terms. That’s not to say it was a bad move, just a curious one. Antonelli is exactly the kind of player a non-contender should take a flier on, a middle infielder with a knack for working the count and putting the ball in play. It doesn’t take much for a guy with that skill set to be worth two wins, but Antonelli’s got a lot to prove first. The O’s clearly think he’s worth the risk given the investment they’ve already made in him.


Visualizing the CBA’s Impact on Draft Spending

There have been many, many words written about the new CBA already, and the common consensus seems to be that two new provisions — the draft tax and hard cap on international signings — will impact competitive balance in baseball. By preventing teams from investing heavily in acquiring young talent, it will theoretically make it more difficult for small market teams to compete with large market teams, while also driving some young players away from baseball and into college or other sports. Dave Cameron explained this all yesterday, so check out his piece if you want further explanation.

This argument rests on one assumption, though: that small market teams spend more money on acquiring players through the draft than large market teams. Technically, since large market teams have huge revenue streams, couldn’t they also be pumping lots of money into the draft, using their late first round picks to sign top players to overslot deals? Why wouldn’t the smart front offices exploit their monetary advantage in every way possible?

So after the jump, you’ll find a two charts. The chart on the left lists the total amount of money invested by each team in the amateur draft from 2007-2011, and the chart on the right lists the amount of money each franchise spent on international signings in 2010. All the data comes from Baseball America, so a huge hat tip to them for the help.

I’ve divided teams into one of three categories: large market, mid market, or small market. The large market teams are the ones that baseball will declare ineligible for revenue sharing sometime before 2016 (excluding obvious smaller market teams like the Blue Jays, Nationals, Astros, and A’s). The distinction I drew between mid market and small market is entirely subjective — so please, feel free to suggest improvements there — but I wanted to draw a distinction between teams like the Rays and Tigers.

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Padres Get Better End Of Baker-LeBlanc Swap

The Marlins and Padres managed to sneak in a little one-for-one trade just before the Thanksgiving holiday, with catcher John Baker heading to San Diego in exchange for left-handed pitcher Wade LeBlanc.

As you know, the Padres were simply horrendous on offense in 2011. Among the 30 clubs, they ranked 29th in AVG (.237), 28th in OBP (.305), 29th in SLG (.349), 30th in ISO (.112), 29th in wOBA (.292), 26th in wRC+ (89), and 25th in batting runs (-58.2). On the bright side, they did lead all teams with 170 stolen bases (79.4% success rate), so that helped a little. Long story short, one player isn’t going to save this offense, but adding Baker is a step in the right direction.

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Guest Post: Why Not to Overpay Relief Pitchers

This is a guest post from Alex Lewin of Baseball Info Solutions, with contributions from Mr. Lewin’s colleague William Cohen.

Theoretically, a team deciding to sign a player to a multi-year contract should feel confident that the player will provide significant value over those two or more years. These contracts are often times a gamble for the club handing them out, as the contract is guaranteed money, and even if the team holds an option, there are still usually expensive buyouts attached. There have been plenty of times when a long-term free-agent contract has worked out beyond the first year: Greg Maddux, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Randy Johnson are just a few names that have produced well after receiving multi-year contracts at some point in their careers. While some position players and starting pitchers have performed at the same level, if not better, after receiving these types of contracts, middle relievers and closers have not.

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I Got Mine: the Union, the Draft, and Jeff Francoeur

Prior the announcement of new Collective Bargaining Agreement yesterday, many thought that one sticking point might be “hard slotting” of signing bonuses for draftees. While hard slotting did not literally happen, the system of penalties for teams going over the “draft cap” looks like it will have the same intended effect. I am far from an expert on the draft, but what is particularly interesting to me is that some seemed to have been surprised that the union would agree to this sort of provision. A bit of reflection makes it clear why the union not only let it pass, but was probably in favor of it. Amateurs, both domestic and international, are not members of the union. Money that is going to those non-members is not going to union members. Whether or not the new CBA is good for baseball overall (I tend to agree with those who think it is not) is one issue, the union’s self-interest is another. Rather than tackling it as a whole, I want to take at the look at the latter by focusing on some interesting quotes from a long-time internet favorite: Jeff Francoeur.

It is a bit uncomfortable to “pick on” Francoeur. It is not just that I am not worried about beating a dead horse. I have read and heard directly from people, people who are far from being fans of Francoeur’s game, that he really is a genuinely “good guy” (maybe it is a front for the press, but if so, he maintains it quite consistently). He exceeded all reasonable expectations to have a good 2011 season for the Royals — something for which both he and the Royals front office that signed him should be commended (in retrospect, at least). I am not a fan of the contract extension he received, but it was not awful.

However, none of that is at issue here. What piqued my interest in Francoeur last night was coming across this August 2011 article from the Kansas City Star about the (then-upcoming) CBA negotiations. The article rightly notes that the lauded Kansas City minor league system, which received a fair bit of mainstream national attention this season with the graduation of players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, was largely built not only on big draft day bonuses for players like Hosmer and Moustakas, but also over-slot bonuses for players who dropped down because of sign-ability concerns such as Wil Myers. The article discusses the well-known, record-setting draft spending in recent years of rebuilding small-market franchises such as the Royals and Pirates, and how those franchises were “overspending” on the draft in order to make up for their relative inability to compete in free agency. It also has interesting quotes from Royals assistant general manager J. J. Picollo, who claims that the Royals have no problems with spending big in the draft, and general manager Dayton Moore, who says that while the Royals like the (now former) system, the team will have to adapt its strategies to the new context. Scott Boras is quoted saying what you would expect him to say: that spending restrictions are unfair because, among other things, they treat every draft class as equal, even though that obviously is not the case (simply compare the 2010 draft to the 2011 draft).

This article also contains statements such as this:

The general view among industry insiders is that the players’ union will staunchly oppose any “hard slotting” in the draft, rebelling against any policy that could be considered a salary cap — even if that cap is relegated to players who have never played an inning of professional baseball.

While we do not know exactly what happened during the negotiations, it seems fair to infer from the results that the union probably did not “staunchly oppose” the draft spending restrictions. Indeed, there are indications from the article in the Star that point in the opposite direction. While agents such as Boras have an obvious interest in not having draft spending restrictions, current major league players were not at one with agents like Boras in this case, as this quote from a member of the player’s association committee indicates:

“My problem sometimes,” Royals outfielder Jeff Francoeur says, “is that you get a first-round pick, and that’s a lot of money to pay a high school kid who’s 18, and you don’t exactly know what you’re always gonna get. But at the same time, that’s the great thing about baseball — the free-agent market — you can get what you can get.”

Francoeur is serving on a players’ association committee as both sides prepare for negotiation, and he’s thought about the options. Maybe you move the signing deadline up to the beginning of July, he says, and that would lessen the leverage of draft picks and get them out playing earlier.

This much is certain: The multimillion dollar signing bonuses are catching the eye of veteran major-leaguers.

“I think it’s just getting out of control now,” Francoeur says.

Were things “out of control” prior to the new CBA? It depends on your point of view, I suppose. From Francoeur’s current perspective as a journeyman veteran, they may have been. The Royals convinced local boy (picked fifth overall in the 2011 draft) Bubba Starling to sign with them rather than go to the University Nebraska to play football by giving him a $7.5 million bonus. That is slightly more than the guaranteed annual salary players like Francoeur and Clint Barmes will get in their recent two-year deals. Maybe Starling’s sounded a bit familiar to Francoeur. After all, in 2002, there was a certain first-rounder the Braves wanted to sign. He was a local, two-sport star who had a commitment to play football at Clemson. The threat of leaving for college football probably helped him out a bit. Although he was only drafted 23rd, he received a $2.2 million signing bonus (a record bonus for the Braves until they signed number seven pick Mike Minor in 2009). Whatever happened to that guy?

Of course, there is a difference between the fifth spot (where Starling was picked this season) and the 23rd, where Francoeur was picked in 2002. But Francoeur as an amateur did embody a couple properties of the sort of players that people are concerned are at issue with the new CBA: the multi-sport high athlete, and the player getting more than one might expect at a lower spot because he slipped due to a college commitment. One player is not a full study, but this does not indicate that things are now “out of control.” Francoeur received a $2.2 million bonus to sign with the Braves in 2002. In 2011, the 23rd overall pick was Alex Meyer, who received a $2 million bonus to sign with the Nationals. In fact, by my quick count there were ten players picked above the 23rd spot in the 2011 draft who received smaller bonuses than Francoeur did ten years ago. One might argue that the 2002 draft was “deeper,” (I am not making that argument, just to be clear) but that would grant Boras’s point about restrictions on draft spending not allowing for flexibility to account for such things.

This is not meant to call Francoeur out as a hypocrite (at least not any more than most of us), a bad person, or anything like that. His comments from August do put certain things into an interesting perspective, such as this anecdote from Lee Judge (whose Judging the Royals blog and accompanying Ron Polk points system deserve their own post or series of posts on NotGraphs) about Francoeur asking the team to take down a clubhouse picture of some of the minor league prospects. Judge took this as an example of Francoeur showing veteran leadership. Will McDonald pointed out at the time what is apparent after reading the August article: Francoeur’s request could just as easily be interpreted as an indication of unenlightened self-interest.

[Judge also writes: “If you want to know how to approach the game, teammates or life, watch Jeff Francoeur.” I am not making this up.]

I would not want anyone to take away from this that I am anti-MLBPA or anti-labor in general. The opposite is closer to the truth. However, I do think that Francoeur’s attitude towards “out of control” signing bonuses towards draftees (who, like their international compatriots, had their future fates altered without being party to the negotiations) likely reflects that of his fellow MLBPA members: I got mine, and now I want it again. That attitude is far from commendable, but it is sadly understandable.


Was Verlander Better than Halladay?

Justin Verlander won the Cy Young and the MVP award after a tremendous 2011 season. Roy Halladay — who posted similar numbers — went home with nothing. Whether or not you agreed with Verlander’s selection as the MVP, he was considered a strong candidate for the award. Halladay couldn’t even beat out Clayton Kershaw for the NL Cy Young, making his chances to win the NL MVP miniscule at best. A glance at the award results might lead one to conclude that Verlander was a vastly superior pitcher last season. The truth is, Halladay was just as good — if not better.

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